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February
16th
2005
Your Daily Fantasy Rx
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'05 NL Starting Pitcher Week: Day Three
by Tim Polko

Today's Fantasy Rx

Per popular request, I will provide all of the player information tables for these articles even if I still need to complete comments for some pitchers.


National League Starting Pitchers with PDV from $4 through $6

Quick Key to the tables:
W = Wins.  S = Saves.  ERA = Earned Run Average (ER*9/IP).
WHIP = (Walks + Hits)/IP aka Ratio.  K = Strikeouts.  BB = Bases on Balls aka Walks.
H = Hits.  IP = Innings Pitched.  P = Pitches.  B = Bats.
Age = Player's Age as of October 1, 2004.
4x4 = BA, HR, RBI, and SB in 12-team, $260 leagues with 23-man rosters.
5x5 = BA, HR, RBI, SB, and R in 12-team, $260 leagues with 23-man rosters.
RAR = Runs Above Replacement; Adjusted RAR = RAR modified to
consider whether a pitcher qualified as a starter in Scoresheet fantasy baseball .

Players are ranked in order from the highest draft value in a 4x4 league to the lowest. As the majority of fantasy leagues allow you to keep anyone traded to the other league, all players are listed in the league where they began the season.


31.WSERAWHIPKBBHIP
Brett Tomko1104.041.3410864196194
SF Giants4x45x5RARAdj. RAR
Age: 31P:R    B:R6732.932.9

Seeing his strikeout rate drop of the sixth straight season didn't prevent Tomko from posting his best ERA since his 1997 rookie year. While his ground-fly rate fell from 1.40 G-F to a 1.08 mark, suggesting we could see a homer rate spike, the drop also should increase his WHIP problems due to the deteriorating Giants' outfield defense. However, Tomko also excelled down the stretch, demonstrating solid skills across-the-board, so even if you can't roster him cheaply on draft day, take advantage of any mid-season slump to grab him by the break.


32.WSERAWHIPKBBHIP
Woody Williams1104.181.3213158193189.2
STL Cardinals4x45x5RARAdj. RAR
Age: 38P:R    B:R6728.928.9

Moving back to San Diego to enjoy the benefits of pitching in Petco should enable Williams to pitch a couple more years. While two years of nearly across-the-board declining skills and increasing injury questions leave Williams vulnerable to disaster, I suspect he at least will remain a useful fantasy contributor at least through the 2005 season. Consider him a bargain anywhere below the high single digits.


33.WSERAWHIPKBBHIP
A.J. Burnett703.681.1711338102120
FLO Marlins4x45x5RARAdj. RAR
Age: 27P:R    B:R6725.725.7

Expect nothing less than an echo of Carl Pavano's 2004 season here, albeit with a welcome improvement in dominance. Burnett appears fully recovered from arm surgery, and after a moderately slow start in June, he absolutely excelled down the stretch. He should rank as an excellent buy anywhere short of $15 and might even merit $20 bids in some leagues. Pitching for a new contract in the current marketplace provides him significant incentive to remain healthy and productive, so although gambling on him for a long-term deal is a questionable move, don't be surprised if he receives plenty of Cy Young consideration this summer as he attempts to join Josh Beckett to carry the Marlins back to the playoffs.


34.WSERAWHIPKBBHIP
Kerry Wood803.721.2714451127140.1
CH Cubs4x45x5RARAdj. RAR
Age: 27P:R    B:R6729.329.3

His injury and the Cubs' collapse hid dramatic improvement in Wood's control. The veteran fireballer no longer qualifies as a WHIP risk, and with a career-best 1.20 G-F, he appears capable of posting a nicely balanced skill set that easily could result in a career year. With no reports of further back problems, hope for 200 innings with the expectation that Wood finally will win 15 games as you bid to $20.


35.WSERAWHIPKBBHIP
Adam Eaton1104.611.2815352204199.1
SD Padres4x45x5RARAdj. RAR
Age: 26P:R    B:R6719.819.8

Considering Eaton turned 27 in November and pitches in perhaps baseball's best pitchers' park, I see little reason not to push double digits here. Yes, his weak ground-fly ratio elevates his homer rate to an uncomfortably high level that limits his qualitative value, but if Eaton ever cuts that homer rate, he could shoot to $20 any summer. You face relatively little downside for about $10 here and could net a 100% profit with any luck.


36.WSERAWHIPKBBHIP
Steve Trachsel1204.001.4111783203202.2
NY Mets4x45x5RARAdj. RAR
Age: 33P:R    B:R6635.335.3

Gradually disintegrating command makes Trachsel a surprising risk after four relatively solid seasons with the Mets. He also appears primed to depart New York as the pitcher with perhaps the least upside on the roster. Bidding more than a few bucks to obtain double-digit wins and passable qualitative stats will remove any likelihood of earning a profit on Trachsel.


37.WSERAWHIPKBBHIP
Dontrelle Willis1004.021.3813961210197
FLO Marlins4x45x5RARAdj. RAR
Age: 22P:L    B:L5733.833.8


38.WSERAWHIPKBBHIP
Paul Byrd803.941.247919123114.1
ATL Braves4x45x5RARAdj. RAR
Age: 33P:R    B:R5520.820.8


39.WSERAWHIPKBBHIP
Eric Milton1404.751.3516175196201
PHI Phillies4x45x5RARAdj. RAR
Age: 29P:L    B:L5716.516.5


40.WSERAWHIPKBBHIP
Joe Kennedy903.661.4211767163162.1
COL Rockies4x45x5RARAdj. RAR
Age: 25P:L    B:R5635.135.1


41.WSERAWHIPKBBHIP
Jerome Williams1004.241.298044123129.1
SF Giants4x45x5RARAdj. RAR
Age: 22P:R    B:R5518.618.6


42.WSERAWHIPKBBHIP
Paul Wilson1104.361.3911763192183.2
CIN Reds4x45x5RARAdj. RAR
Age: 31P:R    B:R4523.823.8


43.WSERAWHIPKBBHIP
Russ Ortiz1504.131.51143112197204.2
ATL Braves4x45x5RARAdj. RAR
Age: 30P:R    B:R4632.232.2


44.WSERAWHIPKBBHIP
Cory Lidle1204.901.3512661224211.1
CIN/PHI4x45x5RARAdj. RAR
Age: 32P:R    B:R4513.413.4


45.WSERAWHIPKBBHIP
Brandon Webb703.591.50164119194208
ARI Diamondbacks4x45x5RARAdj. RAR
Age: 25P:R    B:R4646.746.7


'05 NL Starting Pitcher Week continues tomorrow with more National League starters.


Today's Fantasy Rx: The four likely sleepers here look like A.J. Burnett, Adam Eaton, Jerome Williams, and Brandon Webb; each pitcher might approach $20 barring injury and Burnett could contend for the Cy. Kerry Wood's developing control similarly could result in a superb season though the comparatively increased attention on the Cubs lessens your chance of inexpensively purchasing him. Dontrelle Willis, Paul Byrd, and Cory Lidle also each rank as potential bargains, although Lidle pitches in an uncomfortably impressive hitters' park and the publicity surrounding Willis still might leave him overvalued in many leagues.


Click here to read the previous article.

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