Today's Fantasy Rx

Per popular request, I will provide all of the player information tables for these articles even if I still need to complete comments for some pitchers.

National League Starting Pitchers with PDV from $7 through $9

Quick Key to the tables:
W = Wins.  S = Saves.  ERA = Earned Run Average (ER*9/IP).
WHIP = (Walks + Hits)/IP aka Ratio.  K = Strikeouts.  BB = Bases on Balls aka Walks.
H = Hits.  IP = Innings Pitched.  P = Pitches.  B = Bats.
Age = Player's Age as of October 1, 2004.
4x4 = BA, HR, RBI, and SB in 12-team, $260 leagues with 23-man rosters.
5x5 = BA, HR, RBI, SB, and R in 12-team, $260 leagues with 23-man rosters.
RAR = Runs Above Replacement; Adjusted RAR = RAR modified to
consider whether a pitcher qualified as a starter in Scoresheet fantasy baseball .

Players are ranked in order from the highest draft value in a 4x4 league to the lowest. As the majority of fantasy leagues allow you to keep anyone traded to the other league, all players are listed in the league where they began the season.

18.		W	S	ERA	WHIP	K	BB	H	IP
John Thomson		14	0	3.72	1.32	133	52	210	198.1
ATL Braves		4x4		5x5		RAR		Adj. RAR
Age: 30	P:R    B:R	9		10		41.3		41.3

Thomson continued developing into one of the most reliable veteran starters in the game. Only a slightly weak hit rate marred an otherwise excellent skill set. As the Braves' bullpen and defense remain fairly solid, I see nothing here to indicate anything less than a strong echo of this season from Thomson. Better offensive support and even a marginal qualitative improvement even might push him towards $20, so consider him a bargain anywhere below the teens.

19.		W	S	ERA	WHIP	K	BB	H	IP
Jeff Weaver		13	0	4.01	1.30	153	67	219	220
LA Dodgers		4x4		5x5		RAR		Adj. RAR
Age: 28	P:R    B:R	9		10		38		38

Leaving New York resulted in the expected improvement for Weaver, who compiled a skill set that again rates him among the more intriguing starters in the game. Only some erosion on his ground-fly rate concerns me at all, but considering he enjoys the benefits of pitching at Dodger Stadium for another year, feel free to bid towards $15 for this potential ace.

20.		W	S	ERA	WHIP	K	BB	H	IP
Brad Penny		9	0	3.15	1.22	111	45	130	143
FLO/LA		4x4		5x5		RAR		Adj. RAR
Age: 26	P:R    B:R	9		9		39.9		39.9

Injuries rate as a primary concern for any starter who averaged only 156 innings over the past three seasons. Yes, a career-best 7.0 K/9 and Penny's relative youth suggest a potential breakout, but with his health problems essentially unresolved, you simply can't expect more than perhaps 160 innings here. Limit bids to single digits with the knowledge that you aren't risking significant payroll yet might net an excellent long-term keeper at a likely bargain.

21.		W	S	ERA	WHIP	K	BB	H	IP
Jose Lima		13	0	4.07	1.24	93	34	178	170.1
LA Dodgers		4x4		5x5		RAR		Adj. RAR
Age: 32	P:R    B:R	8		8		28.2		28.2

I can't blame Lima for wanting a multi-year contract after his shockingly superb playoff start, however returning to Kansas City rates as career backtracking for the enthusiastic veteran. Expect control problems to offset any potential gains in his hit or homer rate, leaving very vulnerable to finishing with a negative fantasy value, especially since his 2004 IP exceeded his combined total from the previous two seasons by 30 innings. Good command simply does not compensate for a potential qualitative disaster and a significant injury risk. Bidding more than a few bucks will leave you with little upside barring an unexpected rebound by the rebuilding Royals.

22.		W	S	ERA	WHIP	K	BB	H	IP
Al Leiter		10	0	3.21	1.35	117	97	138	173.2
NY Mets		4x4		5x5		RAR		Adj. RAR
Age: 38	P:L    B:L	8		9		47.1		47.1

A plummeting strikeout rate, increasing injury problems, and the normal age-related decline encountered by almost all pitchers leave Leiter very vulnerable to collapse. Even moving to the Marlins won't allow him to repeat his excellent 7.2 H/9, and with his weak command additionally marginalized by limited dominance, Leiter simply appears too risky to own in almost any league. Talk up his decade-long streak of double-digit wins as you let him go when bidding passes $5.

23.		W	S	ERA	WHIP	K	BB	H	IP
Matt Clement		9	0	3.68	1.28	190	77	155	181
CH Cubs		4x4		5x5		RAR		Adj. RAR
Age: 30	P:R    B:R	8		10		38.6		38.6

Switching Chicago's offense for Boston's power-packed lineup alone will allow Clement finally to reach 15 wins. Any accompanying improvement in his control might result in an award-winning performance. While he rapidly disintegrated after the break due to his uncertain place in the rotation, Clement shouldn't face those distractions on the Red Sox, so I see little reason why he can't echo his first-half performance of a 2.92 ERA on a 123:45 K:BB in 117.1 IP with 94 H and 10 HR over all of 2005. Feel free to bid to $20 in 5x5 leagues.

24.		W	S	ERA	WHIP	K	BB	H	IP
Josh Beckett		9	0	3.79	1.22	152	54	137	156.2
FLO Marlins		4x4		5x5		RAR		Adj. RAR
Age: 24	P:R    B:R	8		9		31.3		31.3

25.		W	S	ERA	WHIP	K	BB	H	IP
Jason Marquis		15	0	3.71	1.42	138	70	215	201.1
STL Cardinals		4x4		5x5		RAR		Adj. RAR
Age: 26	P:R    B:L	8		9		42.2		42.2

26.		W	S	ERA	WHIP	K	BB	H	IP
Jeff Suppan		16	0	4.16	1.37	110	65	192	188
STL Cardinals		4x4		5x5		RAR		Adj. RAR
Age: 29	P:R    B:R	7		7		28.9		28.9

27.		W	S	ERA	WHIP	K	BB	H	IP
Glendon Rusch		6	2	3.47	1.23	90	33	127	129.2
CH Cubs		4x4		5x5		RAR		Adj. RAR
Age: 29	P:L    B:L	7		7		31		31

28.		W	S	ERA	WHIP	K	BB	H	IP
Brian Lawrence		15	0	4.12	1.38	121	55	226	203
SD Padres		4x4		5x5		RAR		Adj. RAR
Age: 28	P:R    B:R	7		8		32.2		32.2

29.		W	S	ERA	WHIP	K	BB	H	IP
Kris Benson		12	0	4.31	1.31	134	61	202	200.1
PIT/NYM		4x4		5x5		RAR		Adj. RAR
Age: 29	P:R    B:R	7		8		27.1		27.1

30.		W	S	ERA	WHIP	K	BB	H	IP
Matt Morris		15	0	4.72	1.29	131	56	205	202
STL Cardinals		4x4		5x5		RAR		Adj. RAR
Age: 30	P:R    B:R	7		7		17.1		17.1

'05 NL Starting Pitcher Week continues tomorrow with more National League starters.

Today's Fantasy Rx: The top three pitchers here each appears positioned to post surprisingly impressive numbers, although Penny's health concerns obviously devalue him compared to Thomson and Weaver. Beckett owns the most upside here and easily could emerge as a star; former Marlin Matt Clement owns relatively similar skills and 2005 fantasy potential. Lastly, Glendon Rusch looks like the biggest sleeper here, so as long as he wins Chicago's fifth starter slot as expected, expect his strong all-around skills to carry him into double-digit value for the first time in a few seasons.