Today's Fantasy Rx

American League Starting Pitchers with DV from $0 through $-1

Quick Key to the tables:
W = Wins.  S = Saves.  ERA = Earned Run Average (ER*9/IP).
WHIP = (Walks + Hits)/IP aka Ratio.  K = Strikeouts.  BB = Bases on Balls aka Walks.
H = Hits.  IP = Innings Pitched.  P = Pitches.  B = Bats.
Age = Player's Age as of October 1, 2004.
4x4 = BA, HR, RBI, and SB in 12-team, $260 leagues with 23-man rosters.
5x5 = BA, HR, RBI, SB, and R in 12-team, $260 leagues with 23-man rosters.
RAR = Runs Above Replacement; Adjusted RAR = RAR modified to
consider whether a pitcher qualified as a starter in Scoresheet fantasy baseball .

Players are ranked in order from the highest draft value in a 4x4 league to the lowest. As the majority of fantasy leagues allow you to keep anyone traded to the other league, all players are listed in the league where they began the season.

56.		W	S	ERA	WHIP	K	BB	H	IP
Ricardo Rodriguez		3	0	2.03	1.50	15	12	28	26.2
TEX Rangers		4x4		5x5		RAR		Adj. RAR
Age: 26	P:R    B:R	0		0		13		13

Despite opening the season in the minors, Rodriguez ranked as the Rangers' fifth starter until a mid-April appendectomy cost him six weeks of action. He returned in June to compile a 2-2 record and 5.11 ERA on an 18:12 K:BB in 37 IP over 6 GS for AAA Oklahoma(PCL), earning a return trip to the majors in late June. While Rodriguez lacked dominance, he otherwise pitched quite well in a few starts before a line drive in July ended his season by fracturing his right elbow. Rodriguez now should begin the year no higher than AAA with seven superior starters competing for rotation spots, and given his limited experience in the upper minors, hopefully he'll regain the promise he showed in the Dodgers' organization before injuries and ineffectiveness crushed his value. You certainly should wait until you see him rebound in the minors before even considering Rodriguez in any league.

57.		W	S	ERA	WHIP	K	BB	H	IP
Chris Young		3	0	4.71	1.27	27	10	36	36.1
TEX Rangers		4x4		5x5		RAR		Adj. RAR
Age: 25	P:R    B:R	0		0		5.7		5.7

Please refer to our Post-2004 Prospect Review: Texas for my comments on Young.

58.		W	S	ERA	WHIP	K	BB	H	IP
Gustavo Chacin		1	0	2.57	0.79	6	3	8	14
TOR Blue Jays		4x4		5x5		RAR		Adj. RAR
Age: 23	P:L    B:L	0		-1		5.9		5.9

Please refer to our Post-2004 Prospect Review: Toronto for my comments on Chacin.

59.		W	S	ERA	WHIP	K	BB	H	IP
Erik Bedard		6	0	4.59	1.60	121	71	149	137.1
BAL Orioles		4x4		5x5		RAR		Adj. RAR
Age: 25	P:L    B:L	-1		2		23.4		23.4

Only control problems should keep Bedard from developing into a top starter. Posting a 7.9 K/9 as a rookie suggests significant long-term upside, and he even could win at least ten games thanks to Baltimore's developing offense. However, a 4.7 BB/9 and .92 G-F also indicate considerable downside, so although taking a late-round flyer on Bedard might result in significant profit, he also appears vulnerable to posting negative value and therefore doesn't merit bids of more than a few bucks.

60.		W	S	ERA	WHIP	K	BB	H	IP
Sidney Ponson		11	0	5.30	1.55	115	69	265	215.2
BAL Orioles		4x4		5x5		RAR		Adj. RAR
Age: 27	P:R    B:R	-1		1		17.8		17.8

Sir Sidney's KO of an Aruban judge concluded a fairly awful year for the Orioles' ace. While an awful hit rate accounts for most of his problems, Ponson also posted a career-worst 4.8 K/9, sharply limiting his upside. The good news is that his luck improved down the stretch, resulting in a 4.21 second-half ERA on a 54:32 K:BB in 102.2 IP with 112 H and 12 HR. Expecting excellent qualitative marks from Ponson seems foolish, but a 4.50 ERA and 1.40 WHIP seem reasonable, and considering he easily could win 15 games, Ponson starts looking like a sleeper anywhere in single digits.

61.		W	S	ERA	WHIP	K	BB	H	IP
Aaron Sele		9	0	5.05	1.62	51	51	163	132
ANA Angels		4x4		5x5		RAR		Adj. RAR
Age: 34	P:R    B:R	-1		-1		15.1		15.1

Although Sele remained mildly effective in the first half and should benefit from returning to the Mariners on a minor league contract, his 104:109 K:BB in 253.2 IP over the last two seasons suggests significant downside for the former #2 starter. His strikeout rate someone fell for the fifth consecutive season while his walk, hit, and homer rates remained unimpressive. Nothing here offers any indication of a pending rebound, so don't roster Sele unless you see him shockingly holding a respectable skill set after several outings.

62.		W	S	ERA	WHIP	K	BB	H	IP
Derek Lowe		14	0	5.42	1.61	105	71	224	182.2
BOS Red Sox		4x4		5x5		RAR		Adj. RAR
Age: 31	P:R    B:R	-1		1		12.4		12.4

The first pitcher ever to win the decisive games of three post-season series in one year, Lowe parlayed his performance into a completely unexpected $36/4 contract with the Dodgers. Of course, the shift from Boston to Los Angeles alone should cut his runs allowed by a quarter, and since even a significant drop in his ground-fly rate left him with a 2.87 mark, the Dodgers' superior defense also will lead to a noticeable decrease in Lowe's hit rate. While I don't expect him to equal his career-year of 2002, expect Lowe's improvement to compare favorably to Jeff Weaver's rebound upon leaving the AL East. Letting Lowe go for much less than $15 looks like a mistake.

63.		W	S	ERA	WHIP	K	BB	H	IP
Juan Dominguez		1	0	3.91	1.30	14	5	25	23
TEX Rangers		4x4		5x5		RAR		Adj. RAR
Age: 24	P:R    B:R	-1		-1		5.8		5.8

Please refer to our Post-2004 Prospect Review: Texas for my comments on Dominguez.

64.		W	S	ERA	WHIP	K	BB	H	IP
Chan Ho Park		4	0	5.46	1.44	63	33	105	95.2
TEX Rangers		4x4		5x5		RAR		Adj. RAR
Age: 31	P:R    B:R	-1		0		6.1		6.1

With two years and $29M remaining on perhaps the worst contract in baseball history, park appears guaranteed a rotation slot despite missing much of 2004 with back problems and struggling even when otherwise healthy. Respectable command simply can't compensate for an awful homer rate, so while I want to believe that Park can rebound given his previous success with the Dodgers, nothing in his stats allows me to project an ERA under 5.00 or positive overall fantasy value for the veteran.

65.		W	S	ERA	WHIP	K	BB	H	IP
Mike Bacsik		1	0	4.60	1.09	6	1	16	15.2
TEX Rangers		4x4		5x5		RAR		Adj. RAR
Age: 26	P:L    B:L	-1		-2		2.7		2.7

Compiling a 4.83 ERA on a 50:23 K:BB in 95 IP with 106 H and 16 HR over 9 GS(34G) for AAA Oklahoma(PCL) somehow earned Bacsik a mid-season promotion. While he pitched respectably in three starts, he unsurprisingly lost his roster spot to younger pitchers with much more upside. Of course, Bacsik still remains relatively youthful, but his increasingly unimpressive AAA performances suggest little immediate upside. I see little reason to roster him in any league, especially since signing with the Phillies scarcely improves his situation from 2004.

66.		W	S	ERA	WHIP	K	BB	H	IP
Joaquin Benoit		3	0	5.68	1.40	95	31	113	103
TEX Rangers		4x4		5x5		RAR		Adj. RAR
Age: 27	P:R    B:R	-1		0		3.7		3.7

Although shoulder problems cost Benoit needed work down the stretch, the combination of a poor ground-fly rate and pitching home games in Ameriquest limit the value of his otherwise strong skill set. Place Benoit in Petco and he might reach double-digit wins, so as long as he remains a Ranger, don't risk rostering him as long as Texas leaves him in the rotation. The intriguing news here is that he registered a 3.90 ERA on a 25:9 K:BB in 27.2 IP with 26 H and 4 HR over 13 games in relief, suggesting he could flourish if allowed to develop in the Rangers' bullpen. Unfortunately for Benoit, he may never return to starting if he remains successful in a limited role, but at least he'll possess more fantasy value for astute owners in deep leagues. Feel free to employ the reliever Benoit as roster filler as needed while ignoring the starter Benoit until he demonstrated some ability to cut his homer rate.

'05 AL Starting Pitcher Week continues tomorrow with more American League starters.

Today's Fantasy Rx: Selecting any of these Rangers' pitchers in spring drafts is a bad idea, especially since some of them should slip into free agency and therefore will remain available for you to add during the season if anyone develops as hoped. Ponson and Lowe rank the only two pitchers with serious immediate upside. Lowe should reemerge as a quality innings' eater for the Dodgers, easily cruising into double-digit value, while Ponson at least will win a dozen games and still owns the skills necessary to emerge as an All-Star.