Today's Fantasy Rx

Per popular request, I will provide all of the player information tables for these articles even if I still need to complete comments for some pitchers.

American League Starting Pitchers with PDV below $5

Quick Key to the tables:
W = Wins.  S = Saves.  ERA = Earned Run Average (ER*9/IP).
WHIP = (Walks + Hits)/IP aka Ratio.  K = Strikeouts.  BB = Bases on Balls aka Walks.
H = Hits.  IP = Innings Pitched.  P = Pitches.  B = Bats.
Age = Player's Age as of October 1, 2004.
4x4 = BA, HR, RBI, and SB in 12-team, $260 leagues with 23-man rosters.
5x5 = BA, HR, RBI, SB, and R in 12-team, $260 leagues with 23-man rosters.
RAR = Runs Above Replacement; Adjusted RAR = RAR modified to
consider whether a pitcher qualified as a starter in Scoresheet fantasy baseball .

Players are ranked in order from the highest draft value in a 4x4 league to the lowest. As the majority of fantasy leagues allow you to keep anyone traded to the other league, all players are listed in the league where they began the season.

40.		W	S	ERA	WHIP	K	BB	H	IP
Joel Pineiro		6	0	4.67	1.33	111	43	144	140.2
SEA Mariners		4x4		5x5		RAR		Adj. RAR
Age: 26	P:R    B:R	4		5		22.5		22.5

Pineiro posted another strong skill set and appeared prepared to emerge as an ace in the near future until a strained elbow ended his season in late July. Fortunately he didn't require surgery, and although his uncertain health status makes him a very risky player to target this year, the expected rebound in his performance against right-handed hitters should crash his ERA back under 4.00. Don't be surprised if Pineiro shoots towards $20 again if he avoids the DL, so take advantage of any opportunity to draft him due both to his immediate and long-term upside, especially if bidding stalls under the teens

41.		W	S	ERA	WHIP	K	BB	H	IP
Mark Redman		11	0	4.71	1.50	102	68	218	191
OAK Athletics		4x4		5x5		RAR		Adj. RAR
Age: 30	P:L    B:L	3		4		29.6		29.6

Returning to the AL resulted in somewhat surprising skill degradation for Redman as his strikeout rate fell to his previous level while his homer rate unexpectedly skyrocket for no apparent reason. Yes, the Coliseum doesn't provide the protection of Dolphins Stadium, but nothing explains his 7.46 home ERA compared to his 2.90 road mark. Shifting back to the NL, even in the somewhat imposing PNC Park, again should improve Redman's qualitative stats, though expecting more than a respectable overall season approaching double-digit value appears the proper course of action.

42.		W	S	ERA	WHIP	K	BB	H	IP
Jimmy Gobble		9	0	5.35	1.35	49	43	157	148
KC Royals		4x4		5x5		RAR		Adj. RAR
Age: 23	P:L    B:L	3		3		11.3		11.3

With a reverse platoon split and troublesome ground-fly rate, the soft-tossing Gobble spent most of the year struggling in the majors aside from a brief four-start respite at AAA Omaha. Yes, he could continue emerging as an effective southpaw starter, but his age and skill set suggests Gobble desperately needs a return trip to Omaha. Poor dominance and further regression in the second half even suggest he might require years to recover from these struggles if an immediate move to an easier level of competition doesn't improve his confidence. However, since the Royals desperately need starters and they showed no hesitation in keeping him in the majors, Gobble appears highly at risk to sink down to negative fantasy value due to his poor overall situation.

43.		W	S	ERA	WHIP	K	BB	H	IP
Victor Zambrano		11	0	4.37	1.56	123	102	119	142
TB/NYM		4x4		5x5		RAR		Adj. RAR
Age: 29	P:R    B:R	3		5		28		28

The dumbest mid-season deal of the year cost the Mets perhaps the top left-handed pitching prospect in the game while shifting Zambrano from Tampa to New York. Elbow inflammation then forced him to the DL almost immediately, limiting him to three starts with the Mets last season, although he at least still finished the year with the best skill set of his career. Of course, he also walked over 100 batters for the second straight season, so any ERA improvement resulting from pitching in front of the Mets' improved defense won't compensate for the qualitative damage caused by his WHIP. I simply don't see the rationale for drafting someone with control this bad unless your league doesn't count walks in any fashion or Rick Peterson fulfills his initial expectation by fixing Zambrano's motion and sharply curtailing his walk rate

44.		W	S	ERA	WHIP	K	BB	H	IP
Jamie Moyer		7	0	5.21	1.39	125	63	217	202
SEA Mariners		4x4		5x5		RAR		Adj. RAR
Age: 41	P:L    B:L	2		4		18.9		18.9

Moyer finally exhibited signs of turning 42 in November as he posted his worst marks since 2000 despite maintaining fairly strong skill ratios. Yes, decreased defensive support led to some of this qualitative deterioration, the shocking doubling of Moyer's homer rate accounted for most of the ERA spike. While I want to recommend the elder southpaw as a sleeper, his very worrisome second-half command prevents me from suggesting you consider Moyer as more than an endgame gamble in leagues with loose reserve rules. Even the respectable odds of him rebounding don't compensate for the downside suggested by his 2004 performance.

45.		W	S	ERA	WHIP	K	BB	H	IP
Bruce Chen		2	0	3.02	1.15	32	16	39	47.2
BAL Orioles		4x4		5x5		RAR		Adj. RAR
Age: 27	P:L    B:L	2		2		17.3		17.3

The journeyman and former prospect actually finished the year in the majors and remains on Baltimore's 40-man roster after pitching quite well following his mid-season promotion. Chen compiled a 4-4 record and 3.76 ERA on a 116:35 K:BB in 105.1 IP with 102 H and 16 HR between AAA Syracuse(IL) and AAA Rochester(IL), again demonstrating that only consistency keeps him from emerging as an effective big league pitcher. Surprisingly strong skills nearly across-the-board even give him a chance to spend this year in the Orioles' rotation if he even just echoes his 2004 performance, making Chen a rather intriguing sleeper if he breaks camp in the majors, especially for teams seeking a potential source of double-digit wins.

46.		W	S	ERA	WHIP	K	BB	H	IP
Jason Johnson		8	0	5.13	1.43	125	60	222	196.2
DET Tigers		4x4		5x5		RAR		Adj. RAR
Age: 30	P:R    B:R	2		4		20.5		20.5

47.		W	S	ERA	WHIP	K	BB	H	IP
Ryan Franklin		4	0	4.90	1.42	104	61	224	200.1
SEA Mariners		4x4		5x5		RAR		Adj. RAR
Age: 31	P:R    B:R	2		3		26.5		26.5

48.		W	S	ERA	WHIP	K	BB	H	IP
Jose Contreras		13	0	5.50	1.47	150	84	166	170.1
NYY/CHW		4x4		5x5		RAR		Adj. RAR
Age: 32	P:R    B:R	2		4		10		10

49.		W	S	ERA	WHIP	K	BB	H	IP
Dewon Brazelton		6	0	4.77	1.44	64	53	121	120.2
TB Devil Rays		4x4		5x5		RAR		Adj. RAR
Age: 24	P:R    B:R	1		2		17.8		17.8

50.		W	S	ERA	WHIP	K	BB	H	IP
Cliff Lee		14	0	5.43	1.50	161	81	188	179
CLE Indians		4x4		5x5		RAR		Adj. RAR
Age: 26	P:L    B:L	1		4		11.9		11.9

51.		W	S	ERA	WHIP	K	BB	H	IP
Daniel Cabrera		12	1	5.00	1.58	76	89	145	147.2
BAL Orioles		4x4		5x5		RAR		Adj. RAR
Age: 23	P:R    B:R	1		2		17.7		17.7

52.		W	S	ERA	WHIP	K	BB	H	IP
Gary Knotts		7	2	5.25	1.48	81	58	142	135.1
DET Tigers		4x4		5x5		RAR		Adj. RAR
Age: 27	P:R    B:R	1		2		12		12

53.		W	S	ERA	WHIP	K	BB	H	IP
Gil Meche		7	0	5.01	1.46	99	47	139	127.2
SEA Mariners		4x4		5x5		RAR		Adj. RAR
Age: 26	P:R    B:R	1		2		15.2		15.2

54.		W	S	ERA	WHIP	K	BB	H	IP
Josh Towers		9	0	5.11	1.50	51	26	148	116.1
TOR Blue Jays		4x4		5x5		RAR		Adj. RAR
Age: 27	P:R    B:R	1		1		12.4		12.4

55.		W	S	ERA	WHIP	K	BB	H	IP
Wil Ledezma		4	0	4.39	1.37	29	18	55	53.1
DET Tigers		4x4		5x5		RAR		Adj. RAR
Age: 23	P:L    B:L	1		0		10.4		10.4

'05 AL Starting Pitcher Week continues tomorrow with more American League starters.

Today's Fantasy Rx: Every pitched listed above ranks as no less than a moderate risk for various reasons, although the upside of several of these starters certainly remains intriguing. While Pineiro, Brazelton, Lee, and Ledezma look like the best long-term options here, Chen and Contreras could emerge as the best values this year if they finally add consistency to the potential suggested by their skills. However, bidding into double digits on anyone here save Pineiro and possibly Lee leaves you almost no chance of earning a profit, so only plan to roster most of these pitchers if they remain available at inexpensive prices in the latter rounds of your draft.