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February
8th
2005
Your Daily Fantasy Rx
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'05 AL Starting Pitcher Week: Day Two
by Tim Polko

Today's Fantasy Rx

Per popular request, I will provide all of the player information tables for these articles even if I still need to complete comments for some pitchers.


American League Starting Pitchers with PDV from $5 through $9

Quick Key to the tables:
W = Wins.  S = Saves.  ERA = Earned Run Average (ER*9/IP).
WHIP = (Walks + Hits)/IP aka Ratio.  K = Strikeouts.  BB = Bases on Balls aka Walks.
H = Hits.  IP = Innings Pitched.  P = Pitches.  B = Bats.
Age = Player's Age as of October 1, 2004.
4x4 = BA, HR, RBI, and SB in 12-team, $260 leagues with 23-man rosters.
5x5 = BA, HR, RBI, SB, and R in 12-team, $260 leagues with 23-man rosters.
RAR = Runs Above Replacement; Adjusted RAR = RAR modified to
consider whether a pitcher qualified as a starter in Scoresheet fantasy baseball .

Players are ranked in order from the highest draft value in a 4x4 league to the lowest. As the majority of fantasy leagues allow you to keep anyone traded to the other league, all players are listed in the league where they began the season.


19.WSERAWHIPKBBHIP
Javier Vazquez1404.911.2915060195198
NY Yankees4x45x5RARAdj. RAR
Age: 28P:R    B:R91025.925.9

The worst overall skill set posted by Vazquez in several seasons resulted in his brief removal from the rotation and directly led to his inclusion in the Randy Johnson deal. Unfortunately, while we still see significant upside here, moving to Arizona could result in further erosion of his fantasy value. The drop in his ground-fly rate over the last few years could lead to 40 homers in the BOB, and with increasingly questionable command and an awful second half, Vazquez worries us tremendously. Bidding into double digits for him looks like an extremely unnecessary risk right now despite a likely long-term rebound.


20.WSERAWHIPKBBHIP
Carlos Silva1404.211.437635255203
MIN Twins4x45x5RARAdj. RAR
Age: 25P:R    B:R984444

Two particularly worrisome trends could create problems for Silva despite the security afforded by his new two-year deal with the Twins. We expected continued erosion of his dominance upon shifting from Philadelphia's bullpen to Minnesota's rotation, but a 3.4 K/9 is terrible. He also dropped down to a 1.58 G-F as his homer rate spiked. However, Silva also walked fewer batters than in 2003 despite pitching 115 additional innings. Combining excellent control with the capable Twins' defense at least limits his downside, cementing Silva's status as a good value anywhere shy of $10 despite the limited upside indicated by his strikeout rate.


21.WSERAWHIPKBBHIP
Mike Maroth1104.311.4010859244217
DET Tigers4x45x5RARAdj. RAR
Age: 27P:L    B:L8944.344.3

My biggest concern here is that deterioration of Maroth's ground-fly rate suggests his homer rate will rebound upward, likely pushing his ERA back towards 5.00. Of course, his overall success after the break last summer gives him a chance to emerge as more than a serviceable starter, especially given his slowly improving dominance and command. Yet he also appears particularly vulnerable to any swings in defensive support, making Maroth a questionable choice as more than a mid-round gamble for a few bucks.


22.WSERAWHIPKBBHIP
Bartolo Colon1805.011.3715871215208.1
ANA Angels4x45x5RARAdj. RAR
Age: 31P:R    B:R81024.624.6

We no longer can consider Colon as more than an innings' eater after his worst performance since debuting in 1997. Both his walk and ground-fly rates deteriorated, ruining any improvement generated from a rebound of his strikeout rate. Of course, considering Colon formerly ranked as an annual Cy Young candidate, we need to pay attention to any signs of improvement, such as his 3.64 second-half ERA, supported by an 82:37 K:BB in 104 IP yet camouflaged by his 6.38 first-half mark. I recommended targeting Colon back in July and now believe he can build on his improvement down the stretch, so consider him a bargain in single digits and a likely asset even in the low teens for teams looking to secure a probable 15-game winner.


23.WSERAWHIPKBBHIP
Kevin Brown1004.091.278335132132
NY Yankees4x45x5RARAdj. RAR
Age: 39P:R    B:R8830.630.6

I see no way to treat Brown as anything less than an extreme risk between him 40 in March and failing to exceed 132 innings in three of the last four seasons. A career-worst 1.36 G-F and his lowest strikeout rate in a decade similarly suggest further problems for the veteran, especially given his tenuous situation with the Yankees after his implosion in Game Seven of the ALCS allowed the Red Sox to win. However, New York also lacks a viable veteran sixth starter right now, and while I like several of their youngsters like Alex Graman, Chien-Ming Wang, and Julio DePaula, the Yankees rarely trust rookies to contribute. Yes, bidding into double digits here seems unwise, but don't ignore Brown if you can roster him at a mid-round discount.


24.WSERAWHIPKBBHIP
Mike Mussina1204.591.3213240178164.2
NY Yankees4x45x5RARAdj. RAR
Age: 35P:R    B:L892828

Missing a couple weeks with elbow soreness kept Mussina under 200 innings for the first time since 1994, yet he dominated after returning, compiling a 2.14 ERA and a 3-1 record on a 41:10 K:BB in 42 IP over six September starts. Holding a fairly consistent skill set similarly suggests that Mussina still could win his elusive twentieth game if the Yankees continue providing him with strong run support. Talk up Mussina's age and injury in the hope of acquiring him at a discount, though if you need to secure a starting pitcher, nothing here prevents from recommending bidding to $20 given the strong possibility of a complete rebound for the veteran ace.


25.WSERAWHIPKBBHIP
Barry Zito1104.481.3916381216213
OAK Athletics4x45x5RARAdj. RAR
Age: 26P:L    B:L81039.239.2


26.WSERAWHIPKBBHIP
John Lackey1404.671.3914460215198.1
ANA Angels4x45x5RARAdj. RAR
Age: 25P:R    B:R7931.731.7


27.WSERAWHIPKBBHIP
Jeremy Bonderman1104.891.3116873168184
DET Tigers4x45x5RARAdj. RAR
Age: 21P:R    B:R7924.524.5


28.WSERAWHIPKBBHIP
Kenny Rogers1804.761.4812666248211.2
TEX Rangers4x45x5RARAdj. RAR
Age: 39P:L    B:L6831.531.5


29.WSERAWHIPKBBHIP
Jon Garland1204.891.3811376223217
CH White Sox4x45x5RARAdj. RAR
Age: 25P:R    B:R6728.828.8


30.WSERAWHIPKBBHIP
Jarrod Washburn1104.641.338640159149.1
ANA Angels4x45x5RARAdj. RAR
Age: 30P:L    B:L6724.524.5


31.WSERAWHIPKBBHIP
Bobby Madritsch603.271.2260337488
SEA Mariners4x45x5RARAdj. RAR
Age: 28P:L    B:L6629.329.3


32.WSERAWHIPKBBHIP
Nate Robertson1214.901.4015566210196.2
DET Tigers4x45x5RARAdj. RAR
Age: 27P:L    B:R682626


33.WSERAWHIPKBBHIP
Orlando Hernandez803.301.2984367384.2
NY Yankees4x45x5RARAdj. RAR
Age: 34P:R    B:R6627.927.9


34.WSERAWHIPKBBHIP
Tim Wakefield1204.871.3811663197188.1
BOS Red Sox4x45x5RARAdj. RAR
Age: 38P:R    B:R6725.525.5


35.WSERAWHIPKBBHIP
Dave Bush503.691.2364259597.2
TOR Blue Jays4x45x5RARAdj. RAR
Age: 24P:R    B:R6627.527.5


36.WSERAWHIPKBBHIP
Roy Halladay804.201.359539140133
TOR Blue Jays4x45x5RARAdj. RAR
Age: 27P:R    B:R6629.129.1


37.WSERAWHIPKBBHIP
Miguel Batista1054.801.5210496206198.2
TOR Blue Jays4x45x5RARAdj. RAR
Age: 33P:R    B:R5628.628.6


38.WSERAWHIPKBBHIP
Rob Bell804.461.325741121123
TB Devil Rays4x45x5RARAdj. RAR
Age: 27P:R    B:R5522.922.9


39.WSERAWHIPKBBHIP
Mark Hendrickson1004.811.408746211183.1
TB Devil Rays4x45x5RARAdj. RAR
Age: 30P:L    B:L5526.226.2


'05 AL Starting Pitcher Week continues tomorrow with more American League starters.


Today's Fantasy Rx: Although I expect that several of these pitchers could push into double-digit value this season, especially Yankees like Mussina and Brown, the starters with the most upside here play for 2004 also-rans. Roy Halladay easily could rebound into Cy Young contention while Jays' teammate David Bush looks like a sleeper in any AL league. Bobby Madritsch may turn 29 next month but pitched as well as all save a couple of pitchers down the stretch last year, suggesting he could shoot to $20 with decent run support. Lastly, while Jeremy Bonderman's youth leaves him particularly vulnerable to injury, his developing dominance and second-half improvement reinforced our belief that he'll emerge as a true ace later this decade. Take advantage of his questionable qualitative stats to roster Bonderman now before his value skyrockets.


Click here to read the previous article.

Please e-mail your comments to tim@rotohelp.com.
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