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February
7th
2005
Your Daily Fantasy Rx
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'05 AL Starting Pitcher Week: Day One
by Tim Polko

Today's Fantasy Rx

We're slightly changing the order of pitcher reviews this year due to time constraints, presenting three weeks of starting pitchers, first AL starters, then NL starters, and finally upper-level minor league starters, followed by three weeks of relievers in the same order.

Like previous years, we'll use a simple formula to separate starters from relievers to make these reviews easier to use. If a pitcher appeared in the majors and started in half or more of his big league appearances, he's listed as a starter; everyone else will be left in the roto bullpen. We use the same general premise to divide minor leaguers, so if a pitcher's total games started between all minor league levels total at least half of all his appearances, he'll be listed with starter prospects for simplicity. Since most pitchers will shift between starting and relieving at least once, this delineation is intended to simplify grouping of pitchers rather than provide an objective evaluation of their skills. All such comments will remain in the reviews.


Per popular request, I will provide all of the player information tables for these articles even if I still need to complete comments for some pitchers.


American League Starting Pitchers with Double-digit PDV

Quick Key to the tables:
W = Wins.  S = Saves.  ERA = Earned Run Average (ER*9/IP).
WHIP = (Walks + Hits)/IP aka Ratio.  K = Strikeouts.  BB = Bases on Balls aka Walks.
H = Hits.  IP = Innings Pitched.  P = Pitches.  B = Bats.
Age = Player's Age as of October 1, 2004.
4x4 = BA, HR, RBI, and SB in 12-team, $260 leagues with 23-man rosters.
5x5 = BA, HR, RBI, SB, and R in 12-team, $260 leagues with 23-man rosters.
RAR = Runs Above Replacement; Adjusted RAR = RAR modified to
consider whether a pitcher qualified as a starter in Scoresheet fantasy baseball .

Players are ranked in order from the highest draft value in a 4x4 league to the lowest. As the majority of fantasy leagues allow you to keep anyone traded to the other league, all players are listed in the league where they began the season.


1.WSERAWHIPKBBHIP
Johan Santana2002.610.9226554156228
MIN Twins4x45x5RARAdj. RAR
Age: 25P:L    B:L343594.694.6

While his deserving Cy Young performance shouldn't surprise us given his strong skills, the dominance suggested by a 10.5 K/9 and 6.2 H/9 provides Santana with an excellent foundation for future growth. Boosting his ground-fly rate to .93 nicely limited his homer rate and combined with his outstanding performance down the stretch to shoot him to the front of 2004 MLB starters. Of course, the publicity rightfully afforded Santana will drive his value skyward, leaving you almost no chance of securing his services with any hope of seeing a profit. You probably should pass on Santana in most leagues, especially since nearly doubling his total innings over the last two years suggests he should miss at least a couple starts this summer due to injury.


2.WSERAWHIPKBBHIP
Curt Schilling2103.261.0620335206226.2
BOS Red Sox4x45x5RARAdj. RAR
Age: 37P:R    B:R272775.975.9

Willingly undergoing experimental surgery to return, start, and succeed in some of the most memorable post-season games in history cements Schilling's status among the gutsiest athletes ever. Only sixteen wins shy of 2000, his six All-Star appearances, three second place Cy Young finishes, and two World Series rings already give him an excellent shot at the Hall of Fame. Of course, fantasy participants likely only care if he'll remain healthy in 2005, and given his past injury problems, I highly doubt he'll exceed 200 innings even if he starts Opening Night against Randy and the Yankees. His all-around solid skills also obscure the gradual degradation of most of his skill ratios, so treat Schilling's 2004 performance as an absolute ceiling for his fantasy value and strongly consider withdrawing from any bidding over $20 even though that caution likely will result in another owner rostering Boston's ace.


3.WSERAWHIPKBBHIP
Brad Radke1103.481.1614326229219.2
MIN Twins4x45x5RARAdj. RAR
Age: 31P:R    B:R191967.467.4

Radke unsurprisingly eschewed superior offers from coastal teams to remain as one of the Twins' two aces. Improved defensive support resulted in a lower hit rate that allowed him to post a career-best ERA more than a full point below his 2003 mark. Unfortunately, he also appears unlikely to exceed this performance, and since Radke almost always struggles in April, selecting him on draft day is a bad idea. Instead let him go anywhere past $15 and instead attempt to deal for his underrated consistency after his first few poor outings.


4.WSERAWHIPKBBHIP
Pedro Martinez1603.901.1722761193217
BOS Red Sox4x45x5RARAdj. RAR
Age: 32P:R    B:R182055.455.4

Moving to the Mets may disappoint the New England legions but the shift provides Pedro with his best pitching environment since departing Los Angeles over a decade ago. While we can't expect him to exceed 217 IP for the first time since 1998, Pedro also shouldn't approach the career-worst ERA he posted in 2004. The Mets deployed a superior defense to the Red Sox last year and should improve noticeably after adding Carlos Beltran. More importantly, while Pedro no longer qualifies as a dominant stud starter, the expected drop in his homers should force his ERA near his 2.71 career mark. Consider him an excellent buy anywhere under $25 even if he fails to break 200 innings.


5.WSERAWHIPKBBHIP
Jake Westbrook1403.381.2511661208215.2
CLE Indians4x45x5RARAdj. RAR
Age: 27P:R    B:R181768.968.9

Seven perfect innings of relief in April earned Westbrook another shot at starting. He never looked back, eventually emerging as one of the best AL starters of 2004. Combining improved command with his excellent 2.74 G-F gives him remarkably little downside, especially on a team with as much potential as the Indians. Westbrook even holds a comfortable middle-of-the-rotation slot after Kevin Millwood and C.C. Sabathia, so I see little reason why he can't echo these stats indefinitely. Bidding to $20 isn't a bad idea considering Cleveland's offense and Westbrook's consistency could result in a surprising 20 win season.


6.WSERAWHIPKBBHIP
Mark Buehrle1603.891.2616551257245.1
CH White Sox4x45x5RARAdj. RAR
Age: 25P:L    B:L18186363

While the new Chicago focus on speed and defense should cut Buehrle's wins to reduced run support, he also could see the best qualitative marks of his career due following the addition of Scott Podsednik and similar moves intended to cut down hits and errors. Yes, posting an ERA over 5.25 every other month indicates a troubling lack of consistency, but nothing else here can dissuade from recommending him. Buehrle ranks as one of the most quietly effective young starters in the game, and after averaging over 16 wins a year during his first four seasons in Chicago's rotation, he appears able to maintain his effectiveness despite a surprisingly high workload.


7.WSERAWHIPKBBHIP
Freddy Garcia1303.811.2218464192210
SEA/CHW4x45x5RARAdj. RAR
Age: 28P:R    B:R161755.855.8


8.WSERAWHIPKBBHIP
Tim Hudson1203.531.2610344194188.2
OAK Athletics4x45x5RARAdj. RAR
Age: 29P:R    B:R141456.856.8


9.WSERAWHIPKBBHIP
Rodrigo Lopez1403.591.2812154164170.2
BAL Orioles4x45x5RARAdj. RAR
Age: 28P:R    B:R131350.250.2


10.WSERAWHIPKBBHIP
Kelvim Escobar1103.931.2919176192208.1
ANA Angels4x45x5RARAdj. RAR
Age: 28P:R    B:R131552.452.4


11.WSERAWHIPKBBHIP
Bronson Arroyo1004.031.2214247171178.2
BOS Red Sox4x45x5RARAdj. RAR
Age: 27P:R    B:R121342.842.8


12.WSERAWHIPKBBHIP
Mark Mulder1704.431.3614083223225.2
OAK Athletics4x45x5RARAdj. RAR
Age: 27P:L    B:L11124343


13.WSERAWHIPKBBHIP
Ted Lilly1204.061.3216889171197.1
TOR Blue Jays4x45x5RARAdj. RAR
Age: 28P:L    B:L111346.546.5


14.WSERAWHIPKBBHIP
Rich Harden1103.991.3316781171189.2
OAK Athletics4x45x5RARAdj. RAR
Age: 22P:R    B:L101246.446.4


15.WSERAWHIPKBBHIP
Zack Greinke803.971.1710026143145
KC Royals4x45x5RARAdj. RAR
Age: 20P:R    B:R101035.735.7


16.WSERAWHIPKBBHIP
C.C. Sabathia1104.121.3213972176188
CLE Indians4x45x5RARAdj. RAR
Age: 24P:L    B:L10114343


17.WSERAWHIPKBBHIP
Jon Lieber1404.331.3210218216176.2
NY Yankees4x45x5RARAdj. RAR
Age: 34P:R    B:L101035.735.7


18.WSERAWHIPKBBHIP
Ryan Drese1404.201.409858233207.2
TEX Rangers4x45x5RARAdj. RAR
Age: 28P:R    B:R101045.245.2


'05 AL Starting Pitcher Week continues tomorrow with more American League starters.


Today's Fantasy Rx: The safest starter to target here looks like Bronson Arroyo given his relatively low profile and $30 upside. Curt Schilling and Freddy Garcia also own superb skills across-the-board yet respectively face injury problems and a poor home park for pitchers. Radke, Westbrook, Escobar, and Harden probably rank as the best sleepers since at least the first three of this quartet frequently appear undervalued. Lastly, Mark Mulder once again possesses the skills necessary to win a Cy Young any given year, and moving to St. Louis even seems to improve his chances, but his persistent health concerns and horrible second-half forces no less than a 30% discount on any projections over $30 based on likely lost innings to injury.


Click here to read the previous article.

Please e-mail your comments to tim@rotohelp.com.
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