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September
11th
2004
Your Daily Fantasy Rx
Rotohelp
2004 NL LPR through 23 Weeks
by Tim Polko

Today's Fantasy Rx

Welcome to our weekly LPR rankings, our primary method to identify highly skilled and/or consistently effective pitchers. Please refer to the end of the article for a complete description of the codes. We've included the five most recent 2004 QA scores for each starter, along with the 10 most recent QA scores for each reliever, tabulating all data through September 8th. Pitchers with no QA scores have not pitched this year, so don't roster any of them unless you see someone ready to return to the majors.


1
2A - Brad Penny(23540)
3ABCXYZ - Roy Oswalt(40244)
3ABCXZ - Randy Johnson(44443)
ACX - Ben Sheets(34443)
CZ - Jeff Weaver(32341)
B - Livan Hernandez(44322)

23abcxyz - John Smoltz(4544445543)
23abcxyz - Billy Wagner(3444452444)
2abcxyz - Eric Gagne(5243454455)
3abcxyz - Jason Isringhausen(5245554435)
abxy - Julian Tavarez(4243552524)
abxy - Luis Ayala(3532324534)
ax - Mike Gonzalez(4543354345)
ax - Ryan Madson(4323242435)
a - Orber Moreno(0545245242)

Wagner's return here finally lets the NL's top four closers head the top tier. Given they each appear likely to remain with their current teams next year, I won't be surprised if they hold this ranking for another season, though history indicates at least one will drop down.


2
3CXZ - Kevin Millwood(35340)
BCYZ - Mark Prior(03321)

3abcxyz - LaTroy Hawkins(4333245345)
3byz - Joe Borowski(2433341342)
abcxyz - Mike Koplove(4432434513)
abx - Guillermo Mota(5443344455)
bcz - Tim Spooneybarger
bxy - Javier Lopez(0434345443)
byz - Rheal Cormier(5352445034)


3
ABCZ - Odalis Perez(40244)
ACZ - Matt Morris(54350)
C - Woody Williams(34244)

cxz - Steve Reed(4333542430)
by - Jay Witasick(1531234453)
cz - Robb Nen


A
BCX - Andy Pettitte(35444)
BCY - Roger Clemens(04444)
BCY - Jason Schmidt(55003)
BCZ - Matt Clement(45200)
CXYz - Carlos Zambrano(55434)
CXZ - Greg Maddux(44545)
CX - Jake Peavy(53533)
CZ - A.J. Burnett(35354)
XZ - Oliver Perez(44541)
Xc - Carl Pavano(24244)
X - Chris Carpenter(05455)
y - Glendon Rusch(43543)
Dontrelle Willis(45242)
Cory Lidle(40353)
Dennis Tankersley(44320)
Kerry Wood(24004)

Although Peavy and Burnett dropped to here last week, both youngsters, as well as Clemens, Zambrano, Maddux, and Carpenter remain among the best pitchers to own in any league.


B
C - Wade Miller(04422)
Y - Josh Beckett(44345)
Y - Brandon Webb(34540)

Yax - Darren Dreifort(5534542043)
Yx - Juan Cruz(4332433323)
x - Jeff Fassero(1243235534)
y - Adam Bernero(3334340221)
Jim Brower(5344240343)
Andrew Good(5423252332)
Todd Van Poppel(0113423124)


C
X - David Wells(33334)
Y - Kip Wells(13400)
Z - Brian Lawrence(34403)
Z - John Patterson(40400)
Casey Fossum(51442)
Victor Zambrano(43350)
Adam Eaton(44331)
Al Leiter(24133)


X
Z - Vicente Padilla(33525)
Jason Marquis(35334)
Joe Kennedy(03533)


Y
Z - Randy Wolf(44330)
Tony Armas(30030)

ax - Dustin Hermanson(4432504554)


a
bcxy - Braden Looper(4244443353)
bcxz - Ray King(4333454354)
bcxz - Chris Reitsma(5103323430)
bxyz - Danny Kolb(3431424433)
bcx - Mike Lincoln(4245453341)
bcz - Luis Vizcaino(3511434503)
bxy - Kyle Farnsworth(1303023243)
cxy - Brian Fuentes(3423453534)
cxz - Trevor Hoffman(5420315544)
cxz - Billy Koch(2432333443)
cyz - Antonio Alfonseca(2453445454)
bx - Armando Benitez(3434544534)
bx - Brad Lidge(4344355433)
by - Jose Valverde(3132442434)
cx - Steve Kline(5433434444)
cx - Danny Graves(2345420303)
xz - Mike DeJean(4454553245)
c - Brian Boehringer(2433434431)
c - Randy Choate(3333424333)
x - Salomon Torres(3552445554)
x - Akinori Otsuka(5544444304)
x - Scott Linebrink(2454533454)
x - Kiko Calero(3445542055)
x - Ryan Dempster(4443234435)
x - Yhency Brazoban(3524443453)
x - Darren Oliver(4244341434)
x - Elmer Dessens(5423435451)

Dempster joins Brazoban and Dessens this week as surprisingly successful relievers who can help most teams in standard leagues.

y - Brian Meadows(4354431445)
y - Oscar Villarreal(1544430332)
z - Jose Mesa(4124545523)
T.J. Tucker(0255544244)
Chad Harville(4253344343)
John Grabow(2454334043)
Dan Miceli(4223434542)
Wilson Alvarez(4223543245)
Mike Adams(4133212334)


b
cxyz - Tim Worrell(5553155534)
cy - Matt Herges(4334323344)
cz - Roberto Hernandez(2454412440)
cz - Joey Eischen(4234344422)
cz - Mike Remlinger(4244242312)
cz - Paul Shuey
yz - Matt Mantei(4024421333)
c - Scott Strickland
x - Kevin Gryboski(5353343434)
x - Scott Service(1354423314)
y - Tom Martin(3435542324)
Cal Eldred(3434554441)
Dave Burba(2342441234)
Amaury Telemaco(2323442253)
Jason Simontacchi(1223444222)
Will Cunnane(341043333)


c
z - Gary Glover(1)
Zach Day(21043)
Sun-Woo Kim(02302)

xz - Ricky Bottalico(4412444533)
yz - Ricky Stone(2433421122)
z - Scott Stewart(2533451044)
z - Mike Fetters(3532153324)
z - Todd Jones(2243343325)
z - Al Reyes(33)
z - Dave Coggin
Blaine Neal(2225532525)
John Riedling(1311423054)

While Neal's increasing dominance intrigues me, he only should be a Dollar Days candidate next spring since the Padres' bullpen depth will prevent him from seeing save opportunities.


x
Duaner Sanchez(4443443353)
Rudy Seanez(4453512443)
Chad Fox(4454433330)
Greg Aquino(5335553333)
Antonio Osuna(3433534334)
Brian Bruney(5333443214)
Joe Horgan(3334330342)


y
Mike Stanton(5355543432)
Brooks Kieschnick(2410340455)
John Franco(2303542155)
Rocky Biddle(3542213242)


NL starters I recommend despite their failure to appear above include John Thomson(04534), Jaret Wright(04443), Brett Tomko(32444), Doug Davis(04450), Mike Hampton(34034), Pete Munro(30434), Jeff Suppan(43324), Kaz Ishii(30433), Wes Obermueller(03433), Brandon Backe(3034), John Van Benschoten(334), and Dave Williams(04).

Other decent relievers include Gabe White, Ryan Wagner, Tyler Walker, Giovanni Carrara, Kent Mercker, Shawn Chacon, Chad Qualls, Felix Rodriguez, Todd Wellemeyer, Mark Corey, Scott Eyre, Ramon Colon, Chad Cordero, and Matt Persiho.


1 - K/9 of 6.0+, BB/9 of 3.0-, H/9 of 9.0-, HR/9 of 1.0-,
     and G-F of 1.0+ in 25+ IP in 2004.
2 - K/9 of 6.0+, BB/9 of 3.0-, H/9 of 9.0-, HR/9 of 1.0-,
     and G-F of 1.0+ in 25+ IP in 2003.
3 - K/9 of 6.0+, BB/9 of 3.0-, H/9 of 9.0-, HR/9 of 1.0-,
     and G-F of 1.0+ in 25+ IP in 2002.


QA score for starts: up to 5 total points, one for each statistical goal, to any starter who pitches at least 5 innings and fulfills any of the following skill qualifications: K>=IP-2, BB<=IP/3, H<=IP, HR<=1, and G-F>=1.00. Any starter who doesn't reach any of the required statistical goals or fails to pitch 5 innings earns a 0 QA score. Scores of 5 and 4 qualify as DOMinant outings, a 3 is DULl, and anything below 3 ranks as a skill DISaster.

QA score for relief outings: up to 5 total points, one for each statistical goal, to any reliever who retires at least one batter and fulfills any of the following skill qualifications: K>=IP, BB=0, H<=IP, HR=0, and G-F>=1.00. Any reliever who doesn't reach any of the required statistical goals or fails to retire a batter earns a 0 QA score. Scores of 5 and 4 qualify as DOMinant outings, a 3 is DULl, and anything below 3 ranks as a skill DISaster.

Note: Starters must pitch in five games before earning any of the following DOM or DIS ratings; relievers must appear in no less than 10 games before earning DOM/DIS consideration. All pitchers are evaluated as relievers aside from those who reached both 5 starts in a given season and qualified for DOM or DIS ratings.

A - QA score of 4 or 5 in at least 50% of 2004 starts
B - QA score of 4 or 5 in at least 50% of 2003 starts
C - QA score of 4 or 5 in at least 50% of 2002 starts

X - QA score below 3 in no more than 20% of 2004 starts
Y - QA score below 3 in no more than 20% of 2003 starts
Z - QA score below 3 in no more than 20% of 2002 starts

a - QA score of 4 or 5 in at least 50% of 2004 relief outings
b - QA score of 4 or 5 in at least 50% of 2003 relief outings
c - QA score of 4 or 5 in at least 50% of 2002 relief outings

x - QA score below 3 in no more than 20% of 2004 relief outings
y - QA score below 3 in no more than 20% of 2003 relief outings
z - QA score below 3 in no more than 20% of 2002 relief outings


Tomorrow, like every Sunday during the season, we'll post our preview of the coming week's games and our CDM challenge lineups.


Today's Fantasy Rx: Rebuilding teams targeting potential closers should attempt to add Pittsburgh's Mike Gonzalez and Salomon Torres, San Diego's Akinori Otsuka and Scott Linebrink, Atlanta's Chris Reitsma, Montreal's Luis Ayala, Florida's Guillermo Mota and Billy Koch, and Chicago's Ryan Dempster. Jose Mesa, Trevor Hoffman, and Armando Benitez are free agents, and only Hoffman appears likely to remain with his current team. John Smoltz might move to the rotation in Atlanta, Montreal's uncertainty makes their bullpen very volatile, and then the Cubs' displeasure with LaTroy Hawkins' inconsistency might keep Dempster in the bullpen rather than replacing free agent Matt Clement as a starter.


Click here to read the previous article.

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