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September
10th
2004
Your Daily Fantasy Rx
Rotohelp
2004 AL LPR through 23 Weeks
by Tim Polko

Today's Fantasy Rx

Welcome our weekly LPR rankings, our primary method to identify highly skilled and/or consistently effective pitchers. Please refer to the end of the article for a complete description of the codes. We've included the five most recent 2004 QA scores for each starter, along with the 10 most recent QA scores for each reliever, tabulating all data through September 8th. Pitchers with no QA scores have not pitched this year, so don't roster any of them unless you see someone ready to return to the majors.


1
2ABCYZ - Curt Schilling(25424)
A - Bronson Arroyo(33501)

23abcxyz - Mariano Rivera(4554454524)
2a - Travis Harper(3454424534)
abcxyz - Tom Gordon(4423324334)

Timlin slips off for the first time in months while Harper thankfully returns. While the Rays' relievers doesn't own a great ERA and won't register many wins or saves, his solid WHIP guarantees him a few bucks of value, making him an excellent pickup for teams looking to maintain lofty qualitative standings.


2
3ABCXYZ - Pedro Martinez(23443)
3ABCYZ - Roy Halladay(52530)
3ABXYZ - Mark Mulder(33324)
3bcyz - Byung-Hyun Kim(400)
ABCXYZ - Tim Hudson(43430)
BCY - Kevin Brown(13235)
BY - Esteban Loaiza(33200)
CY - Sidney Ponson(52244)
B - Mike Mussina(20444)
c - Scott Schoeneweis(24040)

3bcyz - Alan Embree(4433543435)
3acz - Arthur Rhodes(1243324423)
Baxz - Scot Shields(5225325204)
bcz - Jeremy Affeldt(2454332354)

Embree nicely appears back on track, so feel free to add him if looking for a relatively safe middle reliever.


3
abcxyz - Keith Foulke(3452454523)
abcxyz - Francisco Cordero(3343433454)
abcyz - Chad Bradford(3444300444)
bcxy - Damaso Marte(0554250354)
cxz - Ricardo Rincon(4033344313)
cyz - Buddy Groom(2343233451)


A
BXYz - Johan Santana(45444)
X - Bobby Madritsch(43444)
X - Freddy Garcia(34034)
Nate Robertson(04554)
Terry Mulholland(44043)

Expect Madritsch to move to the top tier next week, but other than concerns regarding Garcia's health, I see no reason not to recommend all these starters.

ab - Dennys Reyes(1325521501)


B
C - Javier Vazquez(31304)
Y - Joel Pineiro(23404)
Jose Contreras(42530)
Cliff Lee(04202)
Eric DuBose(32300)


C
XZ - Mark Buehrle(33333)
YZ - Tim Wakefield(34252)
Z - Derek Lowe(52553)
b - Mickey Callaway(000)
x - Rodrigo Lopez(41235)
Bartolo Colon(34304)
Miguel Batista(20243)


X
by - Jake Westbrook(42454)
Brad Radke(53344)

Radke spent all season ranked among the top dozen AL starters in fantasy value, and now his skills seem to correlate with his success very nicely. Minnesota may finish the year with the league's two best pitchers, and both Radke and especially Santana may merit MVP consideration.


Y
Orlando Hernandez(33244)


a
bcxyz - Octavio Dotel(5544342355)
bcxyz - Scott Williamson(2235545454)
bcxyz - Mike Timlin(4324442333)
bcxyz - Eddie Guardado(3534443310)
bcxy - Brian Shouse(4433434454)
bcxy - Brendan Donnelly(5345353435)

The quiet success of both these relievers make them intriguing options in standard leagues.

bcyz - Jason Grimsley(4322334455)
bcx - Jim Mecir(2435552533)
cxz - J.C. Romero(3444432435)
cxz - Bob Wickman(5553533334)

Hopefully Cleveland will recognize Wickman's outstanding rebound year and keep him on the Indians next season. Of course, he should remain a top closer even if he departs.

bx - B.J. Ryan(4453134434)
xy - Francisco Rodriguez(4233454455)
c - Mike Myers(4545003444)
x - Rafael Betancourt(2543554345)
x - Joe Nathan(4143344455)
x - Todd Williams(3143433445)
x - John Halama(4334154433)
x - Ramiro Mendoza(5232143444)
x - Bob Howry(4354512324)
x - Matt J. Miller(4433353433)
x - Juan Rincon(2522253435)
x - Carlos Almanzar(4424212313)
z - Jorge Julio(4444425331)
Esteban Yan(3243225534)

After over three more minor league seasons following his last appearance in the majors, Williams appears prepared to secure regular relief work thanks to his respectable numbers this year.


b
c - Kelvim Escobar(03525)
Kirk Saarloos(43030)

cxz - Ugueth Urbina(3433454132)
cyz - Paul Quantrill(2344124432)
cz - Troy Percival(3324444244)
xy - Danys Baez(2331333424)
c - Jeff Nelson(3023422335)
y - David Riske(3343440324)
y - Curtis Leskanic(3033535225)
y - Rafael Soriano(424332)
y - Mike MacDougal(50522)
y - Derrick Turnbow(3334)
Bobby Seay(4433453142)
John Parrish(2332224244)
Mark Malaska(3332411433)


c
z - Mark Hendrickson(30003)
z - Brian Anderson(21221)
Carlos Silva(04443)

xz - Chris Hammond(4534433335)
yz - Terry Adams(3345333332)
z - Cliff Politte(3523434343)
z - Rick White(4431420322)
z - Steve Karsay(34)
z - Omar Daal
Julio Mateo(4252443221)
Justin Speier(0334333433)
Ron Villone(3323323123)

Speier now looks like Toronto's closer again, so attempt to add him in any standard league if you see him available as a free agent.


x
Jesus Colome(5433434433)
Erasmo Ramirez(3434133453)
Trever Miller(3230345434)


Jaime Cerda(5121534315)


AL starters I recommend despite their failure to appear above include Jon Lieber(34344), Jeremy Bonderman(50524), Zach Greinke(14414), Ryan Drese(45033), Rich Harden(33350), Barry Zito(35332), Gil Meche(32433), Kenny Rogers(31433), and John Lackey(33303).

Other decent relievers include Shawn Camp, Al Levine, Grant Balfour, J.J. Putz, George Sherrill, Jamie Walker, Rick Bauer, Jon Adkins, Justin Duchscherer, Ron Mahay, Shingo Takatsu, Sean Douglass, Franklin Nunez, and Wil Ledezma.


1 - K/9 of 6.0+, BB/9 of 3.0-, H/9 of 9.0-, HR/9 of 1.0-,
     and G-F of 1.0+ in 25+ IP in 2004.
2 - K/9 of 6.0+, BB/9 of 3.0-, H/9 of 9.0-, HR/9 of 1.0-,
     and G-F of 1.0+ in 25+ IP in 2003.
3 - K/9 of 6.0+, BB/9 of 3.0-, H/9 of 9.0-, HR/9 of 1.0-,
     and G-F of 1.0+ in 25+ IP in 2002.


QA score for starts: up to 5 total points, one for each statistical goal, to any starter who pitches at least 5 innings and fulfills any of the following skill qualifications: K>=IP-2, BB<=IP/3, H<=IP, HR<=1, and G-F>=1.00. Any starter who doesn't reach any of the required statistical goals or fails to pitch 5 innings earns a 0 QA score. Scores of 5 and 4 qualify as DOMinant outings, a 3 is DULl, and anything below 3 ranks as a skill DISaster.

QA score for relief outings: up to 5 total points, one for each statistical goal, to any reliever who retires at least one batter and fulfills any of the following skill qualifications: K>=IP, BB=0, H<=IP, HR=0, and G-F>=1.00. Any reliever who doesn't reach any of the required statistical goals or fails to retire a batter earns a 0 QA score. Scores of 5 and 4 qualify as DOMinant outings, a 3 is DULl, and anything below 3 ranks as a skill DISaster.

Note: Starters must pitch in five games before earning any of the following DOM or DIS ratings; relievers must appear in no less than 10 games before earning DOM/DIS consideration. All pitchers are evaluated as relievers aside from those who reached both 5 starts in a given season and qualified for DOM or DIS ratings.

A - QA score of 4 or 5 in at least 50% of 2004 starts
B - QA score of 4 or 5 in at least 50% of 2003 starts
C - QA score of 4 or 5 in at least 50% of 2002 starts

X - QA score below 3 in no more than 20% of 2004 starts
Y - QA score below 3 in no more than 20% of 2003 starts
Z - QA score below 3 in no more than 20% of 2002 starts

a - QA score of 4 or 5 in at least 50% of 2004 relief outings
b - QA score of 4 or 5 in at least 50% of 2003 relief outings
c - QA score of 4 or 5 in at least 50% of 2002 relief outings

x - QA score below 3 in no more than 20% of 2004 relief outings
y - QA score below 3 in no more than 20% of 2003 relief outings
z - QA score below 3 in no more than 20% of 2002 relief outings


We'll continue tomorrow with this week's NL LPR article.


Today's Fantasy Rx: Rebuilding teams targeting potential closers should attempt to add Anaheim's Francisco Rodriguez, Baltimore's B.J. Ryan, Cleveland's David Riske, and Tampa's Jesus Colome. While most AL closers appear likely to remain with their current teams through the beginning of next season, Troy Percival and Bob Wickman could depart via free agency and Jorge Julio and Danys Baez qualify as attractive trade bait for rebuilding franchises.


Click here to read the previous article.

Please e-mail your comments to tim@rotohelp.com.
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