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September
8th
2004
Your Daily Fantasy Rx
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'04 Pitching: September AL Roto Prospects
by Tim Polko

Today's Fantasy Rx

Anaheim: Scott Dunn, 26, RH Swingman
10-4 and 1 Save on an 84:56 K:BB in 89.2 IP over 6 GS(46G)
with 72 H, 6 HR, and a 3.21 ERA for AAA Salt Lake(PCL).

The White Sox acquired Dunn last summer from Cincinnati for D'Angelo Jimenez and then sent him to the Angels in the Scott Schoeneweis deal. While he compiled fairly strong stats between three AA levels despite the two trades, his skills disappeared during six appearances at Salt Lake. Fortunately Dunn adequately adapted to AAA this season, however his 5.6 BB/9 severely concerns me. As I also don't expect him to see many innings this month, ignore Dunn since he shouldn't emerge as a viable fantasy contributor until earlier than the second half of 2005.


Baltimore: Eddy Rodriguez, 23, RH Reliever
1-0 on a 37:29 K:BB in 41.1 IP over 26 G
with 36 H, 5 HR, a .47 G-F, and a 5.01 ERA.
1-0 and 3 Saves on a 31:18 K:BB in 31.2 IP over 28 G
with 34 H, 4 HR, and a 5.12 ERA for AAA Ottawa(IL).

Rodriguez returned to Baltimore yesterday after another brief demotion following a summer spent primarily in the majors. Of course, his AAA control problems exploded with the Orioles, and an atrocious ground-fly rate indicates potentially severe homer problems for him in the future. At least his dominance makes him a mildly intriguing reliever, however Rodriguez's questionable skills mean we need to ignore him until his command improves.


Boston: Pedro Astacio, 34, RH Swingman
0-1 on a 7:1 K:BB in 9.1 IP over 2 GS
with 9 H, 1 HR, and a 2.89 ERA for AAA Pawtucket(IL).
0-0 on a 4:1 K:BB in 4 IP over 1 GS
with 3 H, 0 HR, and a 0.00 ERA for AA Portland(EL).
1-0 on a 6:0 K:BB in 4.2 IP over 1 GS(2G)
with 4 H, 0 HR, and a 0.00 ERA for R Red Sox(GCL).

Rehabbing from a torn right labrum suffered last summer, Astacio finally returned to the majors this week after more than a year on the shelf. Unfortunately, he appears unlikely to contribute in a significant role for the Red Sox despite his impressive command in the minors. Ignore Astacio unless you want to gamble a dollar flyer on a rebuilding team.


Chicago White Sox: Jeff Bajenaru, 26, RH Reliever
0-0 on a 1:0 K:BB in 1.1 IP over 2 G
with 4 H, 0 HR, a 3-2 G-F, and a 20.25 ERA.
1-2 and 10 Saves on a 16:3 K:BB in 20 IP over 16 G
with 12 H, 2 HR, and a 1.80 ERA for AAA Charlotte(IL).
2-0 and 12 Saves on a 51:11 K:BB in 33.2 IP over 32 G
with 19 H, 3 HR, and a 1.34 ERA for AA Birmingham(SL).

With consistent dominance and improving command, Bajenaru appears ready to contribute in the majors despite struggling in his initial big league appearances. He possesses the skills to emerge as a big league closer within the next couple years, however he offers little upside to fantasy owners while slotted in an uncertain middle relief role. Ignore Bajenaru until Chicago demonstrates a significant commitment to him.


Cleveland: Fernando Cabrera, 22, RH Reliever
4-3 and 5 Saves on a 92:43 K:BB in 75 IP over 44 G
with 57 H, 9 HR, and a 3.84 ERA for AAA Buffalo(IL).

After advising you two avoid the four previous prospects today based on their limited immediate upside, I'm pleased to recommend Cabrera to owners chasing both saves and potential future closers. Of course, he won't join the Indians until the International League playoffs conclude, making him fairly useless right now, but his significant dominance intrigues me. Feel free to target Cabrera, especially in leagues where you can keep him cheaply, however exercise caution in deploying the youngster over the balance of the year.


Detroit: Lino Urdaneta, 24, RH Reliever
0-2 on a 4:3 K:BB in 13 IP over 1 GS(9G)
with 22 H, 4 HR, and a 9.69 ERA for AAA Toledo(IL).
0-2 on a 0:0 K:BB in 2.1 IP over 2 GS
with 5 H, 0 HR, and an 11.57 ERA for A+ Lakeland(FSL).

The Rule 5 pick missed most of the season with elbow inflammation and pitched horribly during two rehab assignments. He barely belongs in full-season ball right now and could crush your team's qualitative standing if Detroit gives him significant playing time. Ignore Urdaneta on all teams due to his negligible immediate upside.


Kansas City: Jorge Vasquez, 23, RH Reliever
0-0 on a 4:1 K:BB in 3.1 IP over 2 G
with 4 H, 1 HR, a 4-3 G-F, and an 8.10 ERA.
4-5 and 18 Saves on a 71:27 K:BB in 59.2 IP over 49 G
with 52 H, 3 HR, and a 4.68 ERA for AA Wichita(TL).

Briefly promoted last month, Vasquez merits another look now after dominating most AA opponents for the second straight season. He possesses significant upside on a team with a very unimpressive bullpen, and Vasquez might even sneak into the closing mix by next spring with a little luck. Unfortunately, fantasy owners should ignore him this year since his lack of AAA experience leaves us little reason to expect immediate success for Vasquez with the Royals.


Minnesota: J.D. Durbin, 22, RH Starter
4-3 on a 38:16 K:BB in 35.2 IP over 7 GS
with 49 H, 4 HR, and a 4.54 ERA for AAA Rochester(IL).
4-1 on a 53:22 K:BB in 64.1 IP over 13 GS
with 62 H, 4 HR, and a 2.52 ERA for AA New Britain(EL).

Surgery to repair a partially torn labrum cost Durbin most of May and June, but Durbin rebounded strongly after returning and finally joined the Twins a couple days ago. He ranks as the best pitching prospect in the system and should receive a long look in spring training for a rotation slot. Since I expect Durbin to break camp in the majors as dependable #5 starter with double-digit fantasy potential, definitely seek to acquire him now, especially on rebuilding teams where you can gamble on young starters.


New York Yankees: Chien-Ming Wang, 24, RH Starter
5-1 on a 35:8 K:BB in 40.1 IP over 5 GS(6G)
with 31 H, 3 HR, and a 2.01 ERA for AAA Columbus(IL).
6-5 on a 90:26 K:BB in 109 IP over 18 GS
with 112 H, 6 HR, and a 4.05 ERA for AA Trenton(EL).

Wang's progress this year, despite missing a month at the Olympics, probably propels him to the forefront of Yankees' pitching prospects. His dynamic command and overall dominance, especially during the last month at Columbus, absolutely intrigues me. Any other team likely would give him a shot at a rotation job in spring training, however New York's increasing preference towards veterans either will force Wang into the bullpen or another organization. Regardless of where he spends his rookie year, his performance this season suggests you should acquire Wang at your first opportunity.


Oakland: Chris Mabeus, 25, RH Reliever
7-2 on a 61:12 K:BB in 51 IP over 38 G
with 45 H, 6 HR, and a 3.00 ERA for AAA Sacramento(PCL).
4-0 and 11 Saves on a 27:2 K:BB in 22.2 IP over 20 G
with 23 H, 0 HR, and a 1.99 ERA for AA Midland(TL).

Nearly kept by Texas at the end of spring training as a Rule 5 pick, the Rangers foolishly returned Mabeus to Oakland, where he spent the season dominating in the upper minors. Compiling an 88:19 K:BB in 73.2 IP in two hitter-friendly environments makes Mabeus one of the best relief prospects in the game, and if the Athletics promotes him once the PCL playoffs conclude, I see no reason not to target him as a sleeper. Mabeus owns the skills necessary to echo Justin Duchscherer's outstanding rookie performance if earns a bullpen job with Oakland next spring.


Seattle: Aaron Taylor, 27, RH Reliever
3-1 on a 37:14 K:BB in 37.1 IP over 30 G
with 27 H, 2 HR, and a 2.89 ERA for AA San Antonio(TL).
0-1 on a 2:1 K:BB in 1.1 IP over 1 GS
with 2 H, 0 HR, and a 13.50 ERA for A+ Inland Empire(Cal).

Shoulder surgery last September sidelined Taylor through June, although a strong performance with the Missions led to a promotion to Seattle yesterday. While the Mariners' bullpen situation remains unsettled, Taylor doesn't appear ready to see significant work in the majors. He owns the skills necessary to emerge as a dominant late-inning option, but his limited immediate upside means you should ignore Taylor right now.


Tampa Bay: Travis Minix, 27, RH Reliever
3-0 and 1 Save on a 28:10 K:BB in 36 IP over 22 G
with 39 H, 6 HR, and a 4.75 ERA for AAA Durham(IL).
0-0 on an 18:3 K:BB in 15.1 IP over 12 G
with 12 H, 1 HR, and a 1.76 ERA for AA Montgomery(SL).

Mild injury problems delayed the start of the season for Minix, but his strong performance, especially since joining Durham, makes him a potentially intriguing option for Tampa. Adding another young reliever with good command should improve the Rays' uncertain bullpen. Unfortunately, fantasy owners need to ignore Minix since he certainly could struggle in his initial outings, however he should develop into a decent middle reliever over the next couple years.


Texas: Kameron Loe, 23, RH Starter
5-2 on a 42:13 K:BB in 52.1 IP over 8 GS
with 52 H, 6 HR, and a 3.27 ERA for AAA Oklahoma(PCL).
7-7 on a 97:29 K:BB in 112.2 IP over 19 GS
with 122 H, 5 HR, and a 3.12 ERA for AA Frisco(TL).

The increasingly impressive Loe absolutely merits an immediate promotion. His excellent command, complemented by an approach that yields an abundance of groundballs, gives him less downside than almost any other young Rangers' pitcher. Although rostering any young Texas starter remains a questionable gamble, Loe possesses the fantasy potential to warrant acquiring him once he joins the Rangers' rotation.


Toronto: Gustavo Chacin, 23, LH Starter
2-0 on a 14:3 K:BB in 11.2 IP over 2 GS
with 16 H, 0 HR, and a 2.31 ERA for AAA Syracuse(IL).
16-2 on a 109:49 K:BB in 141.2 IP over 25 GS
with 113 H, 15 HR, and a 2.86 ERA for AA New Hampshire(EL).

Returning to the rotation this year reinvigorated Chacin's career. He led the minors in wins while demonstrating both respectable dominance and good command. Now Chacin almost certainly will join the Jays in the very near future before competing for a rotation spot in the spring. Although spending a few more months at Syracuse might help Chacin consolidate his progress, I see sufficient upside here to recommend you target him as a potential sleeper starter on any rebuilding teams.


We'll continue tomorrow with National League pitching prospects.


Today's Fantasy Rx: Another wave of prospects soon should reach the majors following the end of the minor leagues' regular seasons this weekend, followed by a third grouping once the upper-level playoffs conclude. Of the AL pitchers already recalled, the best long-term options include Chicago's Arnaldo Munoz, Kansas City's Denny Bautista, Minnesota's J.D. Durbin, and Tampa's Chad Gaudin, although only Durbin appears particularly ready to succeed in the big leagues. Baltimore's Aaron Rakers and Minnesota's Jesse Crain also merit attention, especially since Rakers could emerge as a closer if the Orioles deal Jorge Julio. Rebuilding teams in keeper leagues should prioritize this sextet when targeting young pitching as potential keepers.


Click here to read the previous article.

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