Best viewed in IE 4.0+
 
Rotohelp  
July
31st
2004
Your Daily Fantasy Rx
Rotohelp
2004 NL LPR through 17 Weeks
by Tim Polko

Today's Fantasy Rx

Welcome to our weekly LPR rankings, our primary method to identify highly skilled and/or consistently effective pitchers. While we haven't changed this system since the second half of last season, feel free to refer here for a complete description of the codes. We've included the five most recent 2004 QA scores for each starter, along with the 10 most recent QA scores for each reliever, tabulating all data through July 28th. Pitchers with no QA scores have not pitched this year, so don't roster any of them unless you see someone ready to return to the majors.


1
2A - Brad Penny(14235)
3ABCXZ - Randy Johnson(52445)
ACX - Ben Sheets(54433)
Livan Hernandez(30054)

Another active week sees Hernandez returning up here while Odalis Perez drops down and Doug Davis surprisingly falls off completely. Penny's new home also should insure he remains up here indefinitely.

23abcxyz - John Smoltz(5444534554)
2abcxyz - Eric Gagne(4455535544)
abxy - Luis Ayala(5454543445)

ax - Kiko Calero(4434344554)
ax - Akinori Otsuka(1533435444)
ax - Ryan Madson(4343232424)
a - Orber Moreno(0545245242)

In the second biggest shock of this season's LPR rankings after Dave Borkowski's top ranking yesterday, Luis Ayala replaces Billy Wagner thanks to a month of dominant performance.


2
3CXZ - Kevin Millwood(31353)
BCYZ - Mark Prior432005)

3abcxyz - LaTroy Hawkins(2441341424)
3abcxyz - Billy Wagner(4534444524)
3byz - Joe Borowski(2433341342)
bcxz - Mike Koplove(3335312514)
abx - Guillermo Mota(4344231253)
bcz - Tim Spooneybarger
byz - Rheal Cormier(5543233522)
by - Javier Lopez(4433252530)


3
ABCXYZ - Roy Oswalt(43035)
ABCZ - Odalis Perez(44240)
ACZ - Matt Morris(44404)
C - Woody Williams(52342)

abcxyz - Jason Isringhausen(5434325354)
cxz - Steve Reed(3544440333)
by - Jay Witasick(4423115312)
cz - Robb Nen


A
BCXY - Jason Schmidt(45534)
BCXY - Roger Clemens(44524)
BCX - Andy Pettitte(34354)
BCZ - Matt Clement(44423)
CXZ - Greg Maddux(42435)
CX - Jake Peavy(50233)
Xc - Carl Pavano(34303)
X - Jason Marquis(53134)
X - Kerry Wood(03343)
X - Joe Kennedy(33434)
Dontrelle Willis(03545)
Cory Lidle(44501)
Pete Munro(40045)

y - Glendon Rusch(333434)

Seeing Clement, Patterson, and Carpenter slip while Ortiz and Suppan fall of the ranking all together surprises me, however the addition of Willis to the list intrigues me. Since he definitely qualifies as post-hype right now, he looks like a good pick-up in almost any league.


B
XY - Brandon Webb(43423)
C - Wade Miller(04442)
Y - Josh Beckett(44400)
x - Jeff Fassero(33342)
Andrew Good(00)
Michael Tejera(00)

Yax - Darren Dreifort(4425445425)
Yax - Juan Cruz(5445445443)
x - Amaury Telemaco(3433334030)
y - Adam Bernero(33343)
Jim Brower(4434524220)
Todd Van Poppel(2435432331)

Dreifort, Cruz, and even Brower rank as strong buys right now since they easily each could pick up some save opportunities this season.


C
XZ - Jeff Weaver(33325)
Yz - Carlos Zambrano(12333)
Y - Kip Wells(43441)
Z - A.J. Burnett(44432)
Z - Brian Lawrence(30242)
Z - John Patterson(44000)
David Wells(54323)
Adam Eaton(44213)
Al Leiter(32054)
Casey Fossum(20530)


X
Z - Vicente Padilla(53233)
Chris Carpenter(45033)
Tom Glavine(32352)

Carpenter's fall coincides with slumps that lead to the departures of Sean Burnett and Paul Byrd.


Y
Z - Randy Wolf(03203)
Dustin Hermanson(51142)
Tony Armas, Jr.(03140)


Z
Oliver Perez(43443)

Perez nearly appears back to the level of performance he established at the beginning of the season. Given his age, dominance, and likely low salary, he should rank high on the list of any rebuilding team.


a
x - Elmer Dessens(00100)

bcxy - Braden Looper(2434444333)
bcxz - Chris Reitsma(5042254443)
bcxz - Ray King(4442434140)
bcxz - Luis Vizcaino(4443515223)
bxyz - Danny Kolb(5335415445)
bcx - Mike Lincoln(4245453341)
bxy - Kyle Farnsworth(2552543545)
cxz - Trevor Hoffman(4353055535)
cxz - Billy Koch(4343550524)
cxz - Armando Almanza(334444031)
cyz - Antonio Alfonseca(5530235045)
bx - Brad Lidge(3045452354)
bx - Armando Benitez(3225541554)
by - Julian Tavarez(4424452555)
by - Jose Valverde(3132442434)
cx - Danny Graves(3444523442)
cx - Steve Kline(4345154231)
cy - Brian Fuentes(3515234442)
c - Blaine Neal(4555333502)
c - Randy Choate(3532443333)
c - Brian Boehringer(2433434431)
x - Joe Horgan(3343343343)
x - Mike Gonzalez(4255555554)
x - Scott Linebrink(2545454434)
x - Jon Leicester(4234425344)
x - Mike Adams(2442554434)
x - Salomon Torres(3234224444)
x - T.J. Tucker(2442433324)
x - Darren Oliver(4244341434)
x - Tommy Phelps(3352455450)
y - Brian Meadows(3404542345)
y - Oscar Villarreal(1544430332)
z - Brandon Villafuerte(4234234422)
Phil Norton(4334554303)
John Grabow(3545423325)
Wilson Alvarez(5452342235)

Kirk Bullinger(2515403414)
Dan Miceli(3022232434)

Only Jon Leicester joining peaks my interest here; don't discount the Cubs' young reliever when looking for injury filler.


b
cxyz - Tim Worrell(5423235443)
cxz - Mike Remlinger(5332433234)
cy - Matt Herges(3132023344)
cz - Roberto Hernandez(4441445333)
cz - Joey Eischen
cz - Paul Shuey
cz - Mike Crudale
yz - Matt Mantei(4024421333)
c - Scott Strickland
y - Rod Beck(5454343215)
y - Tom Martin(4434234312)
Cal Eldred(4522443224)
Dave Burba(4311423434)
Kevin Gryboski(4230423333)
Scott Service(3135442331)
Jason Simontacchi(212234)
Will Cunnane(341043333)
Troy Brohawn

While frequently dismissed in almost all baseball circles, Roberto Hernandez remains a competent reliever who can help fantasy teams in deep leagues.


c
Zach Day(21043)

yz - Ricky Stone(3445422343)
z - Mike Fetters(434403)
z - Ricky Bottalico(3424532341)
z - Todd Jones(2243315213)
z - Eddie Oropesa(3040332450)
z - Dave Coggin
z - Chad Paronto
z - Al Reyes
John Riedling(3342233032)
Sun-Woo Kim(2353514223)
Travis Driskill(232)
Toby Borland(5222512431)


x
z - Jose Mesa(3434523553)
Matt Wise(2345433533)
Scott Dohmann(5332534534)
Brian Bruney(4234234533)
C.J. Nitkowski(2344334432)
Chad Fox(4454433330)


y
Rocky Biddle(444)

Mike Stanton(3441453044)
John Franco(4032253230)
Brooks Kieschnick(3324103404)
Grant Roberts(1232)
John Foster
Dave Veres


z
Mike DeJean(5543354553)
Vladimir Nunez(1413324320)
Dave Elder
Dan Reichert
Chad Zerbe


NL starters I recommend despite their failure to appear above include Kris Benson(34343), Chris Capuano(23425), Doug Davis(04333), Aaron Harang(35523), Jose Lima(54133), Eric Milton(32434), Kirk Rueter(34432), Victor Santos(32433), John Thomson(43243), Paul Wilson(33323), and Jaret Wright(53445).

Other decent relievers include Greg Aquino, Nate Bump, Giovanni Carrara, Chad Cordero, Josias Manzanillo, and Kent Mercker.


1 - K/9 of 6.0+, BB/9 of 3.0-, H/9 of 9.0-, HR/9 of 1.0-,
     and G-F of 1.0+ in 25+ IP in 2004.
2 - K/9 of 6.0+, BB/9 of 3.0-, H/9 of 9.0-, HR/9 of 1.0-,
     and G-F of 1.0+ in 25+ IP in 2003.
3 - K/9 of 6.0+, BB/9 of 3.0-, H/9 of 9.0-, HR/9 of 1.0-,
     and G-F of 1.0+ in 25+ IP in 2002.


QA score for starts: up to 5 total points, one for each statistical goal, to any starter who pitches at least 5 innings and fulfills any of the following skill qualifications: K>=IP-2, BB<=IP/3, H<=IP, HR<=1, and G-F>=1.00. Any starter who doesn't reach any of the required statistical goals or fails to pitch 5 innings earns a 0 QA score. Scores of 5 and 4 qualify as DOMinant outings, a 3 is DULl, and anything below 3 ranks as a skill DISaster.

QA score for relief outings: up to 5 total points, one for each statistical goal, to any reliever who retires at least one batter and fulfills any of the following skill qualifications: K>=IP, BB=0, H<=IP, HR=0, and G-F>=1.00. Any reliever who doesn't reach any of the required statistical goals or fails to retire a batter earns a 0 QA score. Scores of 5 and 4 qualify as DOMinant outings, a 3 is DULl, and anything below 3 ranks as a skill DISaster.

Note: Starters must pitch in five games before earning any of the following DOM or DIS ratings; relievers must appear in no less than 10 games before earning DOM/DIS consideration. All pitchers are evaluated as relievers aside from those who reached both 5 starts in a given season and qualified for DOM or DIS ratings.

A - QA score of 4 or 5 in at least 50% of 2004 starts
B - QA score of 4 or 5 in at least 50% of 2003 starts
C - QA score of 4 or 5 in at least 50% of 2002 starts

X - QA score below 3 in no more than 20% of 2004 starts
Y - QA score below 3 in no more than 20% of 2003 starts
Z - QA score below 3 in no more than 20% of 2002 starts

a - QA score of 4 or 5 in at least 50% of 2004 relief outings
b - QA score of 4 or 5 in at least 50% of 2003 relief outings
c - QA score of 4 or 5 in at least 50% of 2002 relief outings

x - QA score below 3 in no more than 20% of 2004 relief outings
y - QA score below 3 in no more than 20% of 2003 relief outings
z - QA score below 3 in no more than 20% of 2002 relief outings


Tomorrow, like every Sunday during the season, we'll post our preview of the coming week's games and our CDM challenge lineups.


Today's Fantasy Rx: The first round of deals at the trading deadline occurred yesterday, including six swaps involving twenty-five players that mildly reshaped the NL roto landscape. Only Kansas City and Tampa Bay completed trades in the AL, and those only involved prospects heading to the Junior Circuit. New Royals' catcher Justin Huber and Rays' pitchers Scott Kazmir and Joselo Diaz also shouldn't see the majors prior to September.

New York mortgaged three of their top half-dozen prospects to acquire a pending free agent and an arbitration-eligible right-handed with a 6.8 BB/9. Expect Kris Benson to post a much better hit rate, homer rate, and overall ERA; even his winning percentage should head upward, making his fantasy owners very happy. Unfortunately, since Tampa owns a fantastic defense and a pitchers' park roughly comparable to Shea Stadium, Mets' pitching coach Rick Peterson appears responsible for any improvement by Victor Zambrano. The only significant player to join the NL yesterday doesn't merit more than token FAAB consideration unless you can gamble on SP help.

Either Nelson Figueroa or Dave Williams soon should replace Ryan Vogelsong in the Pirates' rotation; the latter should intrigue rebuilding teams. Jorge Sosa looks like Zambrano's replacement; he doesn't appear nearly as prepared as Williams to succeed in the majors.

Pittsburgh grabbed Ty Wigginton and Matt Peterson from the Mets while finally reacquiring Rule 5 pick Jose Bautista. Neither Peterson nor Bautista belong in the majors this year, but Wigginton should push Chris Stynes off the roster while relegating Bobby Hill to sharing second base duties with Jose Castillo. Of course, Wigginton possesses very questionable offensive skills and doesn't appear headed for a breakout despite turning 27 this fall. Bump his value slightly since PNC Park should add a few homers while slightly increasing his batting average, however don't make the Pirates' mistake of believing his long-term value approaches Huber's potential.

San Diego almost acquired Brad Fullmer before instead reacquiring Dave Hansen. Consider him as no more than injury filler.

Philadelphia dealt Ricky Ledee and Alfredo Simon to San Francisco for Felix Rodriguez. Unfortunately, this deal could gut FRod's value as he moves from an historical pitchers' park to a surprisingly strong hitters' haven. Treating him as more than an endgame makes little sense given the homer rate he might post thanks to his .70 G-F. Although Simon shouldn't contribute for a few years, Ledee should see immediate playing time given Marquis Grissom's .627 OPS this month. He remains a capable fifth outfielder in standard leagues who could emerge as an unexpected starter within a few weeks.

Feel free to deploy Marlon Byrd again since Philadelphia appears unable to trust Jason Michaels as a regular. Jason Christiansen and Jim Brower now look like slightly better late-inning options with FRod's departure.

The Phillies also added Todd Jones and Brad Correll from Cincinnati for Josh Hancock and Anderson Machado. Despite a surprisingly solid skill set, Jones merits little consideration in any league and Correll needs at least two more years of seasoning. Hancock soon could replace one of the Reds' starters, although only rebuilding teams should add him now. Machado might own the most upside here thanks to his solid plate discipline, but a weak contact rate and defensive questions make him useless to fantasy teams for now.

Finally, the most significant trade yesterday involved Dodgers' GM Paul DePodesta moved his starting catcher, right fielder, and top set-up man for a potential ace, a young stud first baseman, and a fast-rising AA southpaw starter. DePodesta clearly lost the deal in 5x5 leagues, dealing $43 of talent for only $33 and a prospect.

Of course, Brad Penny and Hee Choi owners should rejoice as neither player appeared particularly valued by the Marlins. If Choi plays every day, he shouldn't lose any BA while his homers could jump by nearly 20% thanks to the difference in park effects. Penny's ERA similarly could drop by a full point over the balance of the year thanks to the advantages of both Chavez Ravine and the superior Dodgers' defense. While both Penny and Choi could finish the weekend with Arizona, where Penny's value would follow Brandon Webb's down and Choi's would explode in the hitter-friendly environment, I see no reason why DePodesta would deal two young building blocks for 40-year-old veterans. Feel free to charge after this duo now.

Paul Lo Duca, already beginning his normal second half slump, could see his power disappear; a slight BA bump won't compensate you for the quantitative loss. Juan Encarnacion will experience a similar change, and since Jack McKeon didn't let him run often last year, don't expect a sudden SB increase. Guillermo Mota may suffer the most of the new Marlins without Dodger Stadium, the Los Angeles defense, or Eric Gagne protecting him. I don't advise dumping any of these guys, but given the inane fawning over Florida's end of this deal, take advantage of the incorrect conventional wisdom to see what these players might bring you in trade. Only the potential for Mota to emerge as a closer given Benitez's injury struggles should keep him on your team indefinitely.

Unless Florida deals for another starter, Justin Wayne could remain in the rotation indefinitely, although his inconsistency should keep most roto owners away. Mike Redmond's value heads down as he returns to a reserve role, and Josias Manzanillo no longer should receive any save opportunities.

The Dodgers still might acquire Randy Johnson and/or Steve Finley, however if they make no other moves, Jayson Werth might platoon with Choi in the short-term. Darren Dreifort is the logical alternative to close in case of a Gagne injury.

Owners looking for an immediate advantage after yesterday's deals need to focus on Choi, Penny, and Benson, generally ignoring Zambrano and Wigginton while shopping Felix Rodriguez and the Marlins' new trio of proven veterans.


Click here to read the previous article.

Please e-mail your comments to tim@rotohelp.com.
Advertise on
Rotohelp
All content ©2001-18 Rotohelp, Inc. All rights reserved. PO Box 72054 Roselle, IL 60172.
Please send your comments, suggestions, and complaints to: admin@rotohelp.com.