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July
30th
2004
Your Daily Fantasy Rx
Rotohelp
2004 AL LPR through 17 Weeks
by Tim Polko

Today's Fantasy Rx

Welcome our weekly LPR rankings, our primary method to identify highly skilled and/or consistently effective pitchers. Please refer to the end of the article for a complete description of the codes. We've included the five most recent 2004 QA scores for each starter, along with the 10 most recent QA scores for each reliever, tabulating all data through July 28th. Pitchers with no QA scores have not pitched this year, so don't roster any of them unless you see someone ready to return to the majors.


1
23ABXYZ - Mark Mulder(33444)
2ABCXYZ - Curt Schilling(44422)
AX - Freddy Garcia(54444)
A - Bronson Arroyo(24553)
Dave Borkowski(3244)

23abcxyz - Mariano Rivera(4435545314)
abcxyz - Tom Gordon(3345554452)
abcxyz - Mike Timlin(4353523425)
Justin Duchscherer(5153322433)

While the returns of Arroyo and Duchscherer don't surprise me even with the Oakland reliever possibly headed to the DL, two other names jump out at me as more relevant right now. First, Freddy Garcia might rank as the safest AL pitcher to own right now. Second, while I liked Borkowski's minor league stats, I never expected him to post solid across-the-board skills this season as a big league starter. If you see him available anywhere, rush after him since he seems extremely underrated right now.


2
3ABCXYZ - Pedro Martinez(25444)
3ABCYZ - Roy Halladay(52530)
3bcyz - Byung-Hyun Kim(400)
BCXYZ - Tim Hudson(34522)
BCY - Kevin Brown(30330)
BY - Esteban Loaiza(32412)
CY - Sidney Ponson(23413)
Xc - Scott Schoeneweis(32240)
B - Mike Mussina(03232)

3bcyz - Alan Embree(5233330245)
3acz - Arthur Rhodes(4423542124)
Baxz - Scot Shields(3334343323)
bcz - Jeremy Affeldt(432412454)
Travis Harper(3531414423)


3
abcxyz - Keith Foulke(2434233443)
abcxyz - Francisco Cordero(2243535524)
abcyz - Chad Bradford(4432253544)
bcxy - Damaso Marte(5243433413)
cxz - Ricardo Rincon(5355232335)
cyz - Buddy Groom(4313343133)


A
ABXYz - Johan Santana(55435)
Nate Robertson(04423)

Arroyo's promotion and Harden's mediocrity leave this level surprisingly bare.

b - Dennys Reyes(224555144)


B
C - Javier Vazquez(32032)
Y - Joel Pineiro(23404)
Jose Contreras(32440)
Cliff Lee(43400)
Eric DuBose(32300)


C
YZ - Tim Wakefield(45302)
Z - Mark Buehrle(53243)
Z - Derek Lowe(04023)
x - Rodrigo Lopez(53323)
Miguel Batista(23453)
Victor Zambrano(34043)
Bartolo Colon(03244)

While I still don't trust Colon completely, his recent performance should lead his owners to begin deploying him again.

b - Mickey Callaway(5)


X
by - Jake Westbrook(32534)
Ryan Drese(04343)
Zach Greinke(33403)
Mike Wood(33043)
Justin Miller(53413)

Drese and Wood joined Westbrook and Greinke this week. Despite the unimpressive qualitative stats of Wood, I see a lot of upside in his skills, so feel free to add him at your convenience in deeper leagues.


Y
cz - Jose Jimenez(3345134024)


Z
Orlando Hernandez(3250).


a
John Halama(33040)

bcxyz - Octavio Dotel(4323544545)
bcxyz - Eddie Guardado(2335344433)
bcxyz - Scott Williamson(2235545454)
bcxy - Brendan Donnelly(3244445243)
bcyz - Jason Grimsley(5453122434)
bcx - Jim Mecir(2344145445)
bcy - Brian Shouse(4213532240)
bxy - Danys Baez(3435144335)
bxy - Danny Patterson(4342354123)
bx - B.J. Ryan(3435435354)
by - David Riske(3422323434)
cz - Cliff Politte(5253233444)
cz - J.C. Romero(4503455550)
xy - Francisco Rodriguez(3314353545)

Very strong weeks from Politte and Romero pushed them up here while Dotel secures the top reliever spot with a sextet of dominant outings.

b - John Parrish(3443454154)
x - Joe Nathan(4443454554)
x - Carlos Almanzar(5342444553)
x - Rafael Betancourt(3414444454)
x - Juan Rincon(4434403243)
x - Shingo Takatsu(5223553342)
x - Jason Kershner(5353434515)
Esteban Yan(4444434233)
Matt J. Miller(0430433551)

Nathan and Betancourt merit the most attention here given their succession of dominant performances. Meanwhile Brocail, Lehr, and Ligtenberg all slip off the bottom of this level thanks to bad weeks.


b
c - Kelvim Escobar(43341)
Kirk Saarloos(4303)

cxz - Ugueth Urbina(2332534333)
cyz - Paul Quantrill(4424341334)
cz - Troy Percival(4323551445)
c - Jeff Nelson(0544302342)
c - Scott Sauerbeck
y - Curtis Leskanic(4455321330)
y - Derrick Turnbow(3334)
y - Rafael Soriano(424332)
y - Mike MacDougal(50522)
Mark Malaska(3332411433)
Bobby Seay(03301)
Jack Cressend(4243121113)
Chris Mears


c
x - Ron Villone(022)
z - Mark Hendrickson(40443)
z - Brian Anderson(00035)
Carlos Silva(32433)

yz - Terry Adams(5423434533)
z - Bob Wickman(42442454)
z - Rick White(2334334552)
z - Chris Hammond(2431435333)
z - Ben Weber(3244323211)
z - Scott Stewart(3425334510)
z - Steve Karsay
z - Omar Daal
z - Jayson Durocher
z - Jason Middlebrook
z - Britt Reames
z - Carl Sadler
Mike Myers(4433334020)
Julio Mateo(4252443221)
Justin Speier(2253412432)
Kelly Wunsch(532)
Kane Davis
Hansel Izquierdo
Jose Santiago
Mike Thurman


x
z -Jaime Cerda(3343354342)
Bob Howry(3252443434)
Jamie Walker(0333345532)
Rudy Seanez(3414334503)
Trever Miller(0233414434)
Kevin Gregg(1032334553)
Jason Frasor(5232153424)
Chad Gaudin(3233331435)
Erasmo Ramirez(2333343413)

Colome exits after only a week despite continued respectable performances. However, the additions of Howry and Miller are warranted, and Gregg deserved to be here months ago based on his overall skill set.


z
Jorge Julio(3441234455)
Mike Jackson(2345224254)
Brandon Puffer(2332242224)


AL starters I recommend despite their failure to appear above include Rob Bell(33403), Jeremy Bonderman(33430), David Bush(4333), Rich Harden(32433), Jason Johnson(23553), John Lackey(44335), Jon Lieber(54334), Mike Maroth(33533), Terry Mulholland(3444), Brad Radke(43033), Kaz Tadano(443), and Josh Towers(30344).

Other decent relievers include Grant Balfour, Ryan Bukvich, Jesus Colome, Shigetoshi Hasegawa, Al Levine, Ron Mahay, and Ramiro Mendoza.


1 - K/9 of 6.0+, BB/9 of 3.0-, H/9 of 9.0-, HR/9 of 1.0-,
     and G-F of 1.0+ in 25+ IP in 2004.
2 - K/9 of 6.0+, BB/9 of 3.0-, H/9 of 9.0-, HR/9 of 1.0-,
     and G-F of 1.0+ in 25+ IP in 2003.
3 - K/9 of 6.0+, BB/9 of 3.0-, H/9 of 9.0-, HR/9 of 1.0-,
     and G-F of 1.0+ in 25+ IP in 2002.


QA score for starts: up to 5 total points, one for each statistical goal, to any starter who pitches at least 5 innings and fulfills any of the following skill qualifications: K>=IP-2, BB<=IP/3, H<=IP, HR<=1, and G-F>=1.00. Any starter who doesn't reach any of the required statistical goals or fails to pitch 5 innings earns a 0 QA score. Scores of 5 and 4 qualify as DOMinant outings, a 3 is DULl, and anything below 3 ranks as a skill DISaster.

QA score for relief outings: up to 5 total points, one for each statistical goal, to any reliever who retires at least one batter and fulfills any of the following skill qualifications: K>=IP, BB=0, H<=IP, HR=0, and G-F>=1.00. Any reliever who doesn't reach any of the required statistical goals or fails to retire a batter earns a 0 QA score. Scores of 5 and 4 qualify as DOMinant outings, a 3 is DULl, and anything below 3 ranks as a skill DISaster.

Note: Starters must pitch in five games before earning any of the following DOM or DIS ratings; relievers must appear in no less than 10 games before earning DOM/DIS consideration. All pitchers are evaluated as relievers aside from those who reached both 5 starts in a given season and qualified for DOM or DIS ratings.

A - QA score of 4 or 5 in at least 50% of 2004 starts
B - QA score of 4 or 5 in at least 50% of 2003 starts
C - QA score of 4 or 5 in at least 50% of 2002 starts

X - QA score below 3 in no more than 20% of 2004 starts
Y - QA score below 3 in no more than 20% of 2003 starts
Z - QA score below 3 in no more than 20% of 2002 starts

a - QA score of 4 or 5 in at least 50% of 2004 relief outings
b - QA score of 4 or 5 in at least 50% of 2003 relief outings
c - QA score of 4 or 5 in at least 50% of 2002 relief outings

x - QA score below 3 in no more than 20% of 2004 relief outings
y - QA score below 3 in no more than 20% of 2003 relief outings
z - QA score below 3 in no more than 20% of 2002 relief outings


We'll continue tomorrow with this week's NL LPR article.


Today's Fantasy Rx: Owners in rapid-response leagues that allow immediate pick-ups and daily transactions should stay near their computers as much as possible over the next few days. At least a half-dozen trades should occur, and I expect a couple of them will result in unheralded reserves or relievers suddenly emerging as viable fantasy contributors.


Click here to read the previous article.

Please e-mail your comments to tim@rotohelp.com.
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