Rotohelp.com

by Tim Polko

Today I'm reviewing pitchers who, over the past three years, saw their ERA jump by at least 1.50 from July to August. We only looked at pitchers who compiled at least a total of 30 IP in both months over the past three years. They also must show an increase in ERA from July to August while registering at least 10 IP in both months in each of the last three years.

Aaron Sele qualified for today's list strictly due to a rebound from his placement on last month's JulyFlys list. Instead of discussing him in detail again, I'll briefly summarize my current recommendations before continuing with new players.

Aaron Sele, RH Starter, ANA: +1.81 ERA. June: shop.
Despite compiling an 11:15 K:BB in 37.1 IP over the last two months, Sele remains in the rotation thanks to the injuries and ineffectiveness of every Anaheim starter save Kelvim Escobar. Of course, while Sele only owns a 03103 current QA log, he also hasn't lost a game all year thanks to the Angels' offense. Perhaps that gives him value in leagues that use net wins, but I see significant downside here and only moderate fantasy potential. Considering he should slump toward the end of the year, you probably should find him a new home at your first opportunity.
July: shop.

Jose Lima, RH Starter, LA: +5.43 ERA 
Yearly ERA increase between July and August:
2001: 1.75; 2002: 6.79; 2003: 11.24.
01-03	GS/G	IP	H/HR	K:BB	W-L/S	ERA
July	14/17	93.1	75/13	47:22	9-2/0	2.89
August	13/13	61.2	97/13	24:14	3-6/0	8.32

04JUL	6/6	41.1	43/9	22:8	3-0/0	3.48

The combination of Lima's 2.0 homer rate and an unimpressive 1.04 ground-fly rate this month gives him obvious downside, although his 54133 at least offers relatively significant fantasy potential. Providing the Dodgers don't add another starter, he should begin August with a double-start at home against Pittsburgh and Philadelphia before facing the Cubs in Chicago, Atlanta at home, and then another double-start in Montreal and New York. However, only the Chicago start scares me at all since Dodger Stadium should diminish the prolific run-scoring abilities of the Phillies. While keeping Lima ranks as an obvious risk, anyone in severe competition in wins probably should wait at least until after next week before looking to move him.

Shawn Chacon, RH Closer, COL: +3.69 ERA 
Yearly ERA increase between July and August:
2001: 0.99; 2002: 4.73; 2003: 7.67.
01-03	GS/G	IP	H/HR	K:BB	W-L/S	ERA
July	15/15	91.2	87/17	66:48	4-4/0	4.81
August	12/12	60.1	76/18	39:40	0-10/0	8.50

04JUL	0/11	11.1	11/2	6:10	1-1/7	6.35

While Chacon's 23 saves certainly help in one category, his atrocious qualitative stats leave him with little overall value. Yes, I expected him to flourish in the bullpen even in Colorado, but with career-worst marks of a .77 G-F and 6.7 BB/9, his lack of upside ranks him among the riskiest pitchers to own. Unless completely desperate for saves and unconcerned about your ERA and WHIP, try to deal Chacon to the contender with the most points to gain in saves.

Esteban Yan, RH Reliever, : +2.55 ERA 
Yearly ERA increase between July and August:
2001: 5.48; 2002: 1.20; 2003: 2.45.
01-03	GS/G	IP	H/HR	K:BB	W-L/S	ERA
July	0/27	34.0	33/1	26:12	2-2/8	2.38
August	0/32	42.0	49/14	42:9	2-4/7	4.93

04JUL	0/14	13.2	9/1	10:5	0-0/0	1.98

Posting a career-best 1.63 G-F in Comerica Park should enable Yan to avoid too many disastrous outings, however he easily could post an near 5.00 with a little bad luck. Of course, he also could emerge as Detroit's closer if the Tigers deal Ugueth Urbina in the next few days, making Yan an interesting speculative pick for anyone with transactions prior to the Saturday trade deadline. Unfortunately, Urbina probably will stay in Detroit, rendering Yan largely useless and forcing his owners to deal or cut him given his limited upside.

Mark Mulder, LH Starter, OAK: +1.92 ERA 
Yearly ERA increase between July and August:
2001: 2.76; 2002: 1.43; 2003: 1.43.
01-03	GS/G	IP	H/HR	K:BB	W-L/S	ERA
July	17/17	131.2	94/10	107:23	10-5/0	2.26
August	15/15	99.0	102/8	67:22	9-4/0	4.18

04JUL	5/5	37.0	38/4	26:11	4-1/0	5.11

The likely AL Cy Young winner needs to avoid both his normal August downturn and late-season injury to secure his first major award. I suspect he can manage that feat given his 33444 current QA log, extremely solid skill set, and Mulder's very impressive 10-1 record since April. Doubling next week in New York and Minnesota might keep his ERA elevated, but he then opposes the Royals, Orioles twice, and Devil Rays. Any owner who needs starting help and can afford the cost to acquire Mulder should open talks now with the intention of adding him to your roster for the second week in August to minimize the downside of your investment.

Jeff Suppan, RH Starter, STL: +1.91 ERA 
Yearly ERA increase between July and August:
2001: 1.26; 2002: 1.31; 2003: 3.05.
01-03	GS/G	IP	H/HR	K:BB	W-L/S	ERA
July	15/15	102.2	113/9	55:24	5-5/0	4.56
August	15/16	94.2	112/17	48:36	5-8/0	6.47

04JUL	5/5	31.0	32/5	21:16	3-1/0	5.52

Given the trend depicted in his 54320 current QA log, Suppan severely concerns me, especially since the 29-year-old does not own particularly strong skills. However, the Cardinals' great defense keeps his hit rate down, Suppan isn't allowing an abundance of homers, and his August schedule includes starts against the Expos, Marlins, Braves, Pirates, and Reds. Considering Suppan also should rebound from any struggles with a strong September, he looks like a sleeper pitcher to target, especially if you can leave him reserved until his QA scores show improvement.

Steve Sparks, RH Swingman, ARI: +1.74 ERA 
Yearly ERA increase between July and August:
2001: 1.80; 2002: 2.10; 2003: 0.48.
01-03	GS/G	IP	H/HR	K:BB	W-L/S	ERA
July	10/17	85.0	91/9	49:29	5-4/0	4.02
August	13/21	100.0	122/18	63:29	5-9/0	5.76

04JUL	3/4	17.1	25/4	11:6	0-2/0	10.39

The only good news here is that sparks' meltdown this month leaves him little chance of pitching much worse in August. Arizona finally appears prepared to allow youngsters like Edgar Gonzalez and Lance Cormier to start through October, a decision that should keep Sparks in the long relief role that offers no upside for fantasy owners. While he generally finishes the year on a strong note, declining skills, an unfriendly home park, and shoddy defensive support render the 39-year-old effectively useless. Sparks owns one of the worst roto values in baseball right now, so deal or cut him if you accidentally added him while chasing wins earlier this year.

As Joel Pineiro appears out indefinitely and might miss the rest of the season, I see no reason to discuss him, especially since he generally slumps in August.

Internet Challenge

SP(6)
Pedro Martinez: Sun:@MIN(Joh.Santana)
Randy Johnson: Fri:@COL(J.Jennings)
Javier Vazquez: Sat:BAL(E.Bedard)
Jason Schmidt: Sun:STL(W.Williams)
Roy Oswalt: Sun:@CIN(Pa.Wilson)
Kevin Brown: Fri:BAL(D.Cabrera)
Josh Beckett: Fri:MON(L.Hernandez)

No starts: Schilling, Mussina, T.Hudson, Wood, and Affeldt.

As Randy normally pitches well in Colorado and should stay in Arizona, we're going to risk running both him and a returning Kevin Brown, along with our four other healthy pitchers, and leave Blisterman Beckett on our bench. Despite his mild comeback over the past couple days, Herges also remains benched indefinitely.

Piazza and Fullmer stay glued to our bench, and Orlando Hudson also isn't impressing. While we'd like to deploy Juan Pierre and Vernon Wells, we neither possess any available cap room nor easily identifiable roster slots.

The Umpire Hunter(20th lg; 569th overall)
Week 17b: July 30-August 1

C	Jason Varitek		680 
C	Victor Martinez		450
1B	Lyle Overbay		400
1B	Mark Teixeira		760
2B	Alfonso Soriano		1930
2B	Mark Loretta		820 
3B	Scott Rolen		1460 
3B	Joe Crede		600
SS	Alex Rodriguez		2010 
SS	Kazuo Matsui		750
OF	Carlos Beltran		1760 
OF	Carl Crawford		1040 
OF	Scott Podsednik		980 
OF	Brad Wilkerson		690
OF	Adam Dunn		690
OF	Miguel Cabrera		570 
DH	Hank Blalock		850
DH	Alex Cintron		450 

SP	Pedro Martinez		1800 
SP	Randy Johnson		1550
SP	Javier Vazquez		1280 
SP	Jason Schmidt		1240  
SP	Roy Oswalt		1200 
SP	Kevin Brown		1180
RP	Eric Gagne		1890
RP	Octavio Dotel		1250
RP	Danny Kolb		940 
RP	Joe Nathan		720 

Total Salary for Week 17b: 	29940

Today's Fantasy Rx: With teams apparently prepared to wait until early Saturday afternoon at the trade deadline to complete any moves, feel free to take a break this evening to catch the end of the DNC coverage from 8-10 PM(CDT). The acceptance speeches of John Kerry tonight and George W. Bush on September 2nd should offer two distinct visions for America's future, and watching both will aid in making an informed decision on November 2nd.

While on the subject of elections, please also make sure everyone in your family eligible to vote is registered to vote in your district.

Click here to read the previous article.

Please e-mail your comments to tim@rotohelp.com.



Rotohelp		2004 Pitching: Dogs of August by Tim Polko Today's Fantasy Rx Today I'm reviewing pitchers who, over the past three years, saw their ERA jump by at least 1.50 from July to August. We only looked at pitchers who compiled at least a total of 30 IP in both months over the past three years. They also must show an increase in ERA from July to August while registering at least 10 IP in both months in each of the last three years. Aaron Sele qualified for today's list strictly due to a rebound from his placement on last month's JulyFlys list. Instead of discussing him in detail again, I'll briefly summarize my current recommendations before continuing with new players. Aaron Sele, RH Starter, ANA: +1.81 ERA. June: shop. Despite compiling an 11:15 K:BB in 37.1 IP over the last two months, Sele remains in the rotation thanks to the injuries and ineffectiveness of every Anaheim starter save Kelvim Escobar. Of course, while Sele only owns a 03103 current QA log, he also hasn't lost a game all year thanks to the Angels' offense. Perhaps that gives him value in leagues that use net wins, but I see significant downside here and only moderate fantasy potential. Considering he should slump toward the end of the year, you probably should find him a new home at your first opportunity. July: shop. Jose Lima, RH Starter, LA: +5.43 ERA Yearly ERA increase between July and August: 2001: 1.75; 2002: 6.79; 2003: 11.24. 01-03 GS/G IP H/HR K:BB W-L/S ERA July 14/17 93.1 75/13 47:22 9-2/0 2.89 August 13/13 61.2 97/13 24:14 3-6/0 8.32 04JUL 6/6 41.1 43/9 22:8 3-0/0 3.48 The combination of Lima's 2.0 homer rate and an unimpressive 1.04 ground-fly rate this month gives him obvious downside, although his 54133 at least offers relatively significant fantasy potential. Providing the Dodgers don't add another starter, he should begin August with a double-start at home against Pittsburgh and Philadelphia before facing the Cubs in Chicago, Atlanta at home, and then another double-start in Montreal and New York. However, only the Chicago start scares me at all since Dodger Stadium should diminish the prolific run-scoring abilities of the Phillies. While keeping Lima ranks as an obvious risk, anyone in severe competition in wins probably should wait at least until after next week before looking to move him. Shawn Chacon, RH Closer, COL: +3.69 ERA Yearly ERA increase between July and August: 2001: 0.99; 2002: 4.73; 2003: 7.67. 01-03 GS/G IP H/HR K:BB W-L/S ERA July 15/15 91.2 87/17 66:48 4-4/0 4.81 August 12/12 60.1 76/18 39:40 0-10/0 8.50 04JUL 0/11 11.1 11/2 6:10 1-1/7 6.35 While Chacon's 23 saves certainly help in one category, his atrocious qualitative stats leave him with little overall value. Yes, I expected him to flourish in the bullpen even in Colorado, but with career-worst marks of a .77 G-F and 6.7 BB/9, his lack of upside ranks him among the riskiest pitchers to own. Unless completely desperate for saves and unconcerned about your ERA and WHIP, try to deal Chacon to the contender with the most points to gain in saves. Esteban Yan, RH Reliever, : +2.55 ERA Yearly ERA increase between July and August: 2001: 5.48; 2002: 1.20; 2003: 2.45. 01-03 GS/G IP H/HR K:BB W-L/S ERA July 0/27 34.0 33/1 26:12 2-2/8 2.38 August 0/32 42.0 49/14 42:9 2-4/7 4.93 04JUL 0/14 13.2 9/1 10:5 0-0/0 1.98 Posting a career-best 1.63 G-F in Comerica Park should enable Yan to avoid too many disastrous outings, however he easily could post an near 5.00 with a little bad luck. Of course, he also could emerge as Detroit's closer if the Tigers deal Ugueth Urbina in the next few days, making Yan an interesting speculative pick for anyone with transactions prior to the Saturday trade deadline. Unfortunately, Urbina probably will stay in Detroit, rendering Yan largely useless and forcing his owners to deal or cut him given his limited upside. Mark Mulder, LH Starter, OAK: +1.92 ERA Yearly ERA increase between July and August: 2001: 2.76; 2002: 1.43; 2003: 1.43. 01-03 GS/G IP H/HR K:BB W-L/S ERA July 17/17 131.2 94/10 107:23 10-5/0 2.26 August 15/15 99.0 102/8 67:22 9-4/0 4.18 04JUL 5/5 37.0 38/4 26:11 4-1/0 5.11 The likely AL Cy Young winner needs to avoid both his normal August downturn and late-season injury to secure his first major award. I suspect he can manage that feat given his 33444 current QA log, extremely solid skill set, and Mulder's very impressive 10-1 record since April. Doubling next week in New York and Minnesota might keep his ERA elevated, but he then opposes the Royals, Orioles twice, and Devil Rays. Any owner who needs starting help and can afford the cost to acquire Mulder should open talks now with the intention of adding him to your roster for the second week in August to minimize the downside of your investment. Jeff Suppan, RH Starter, STL: +1.91 ERA Yearly ERA increase between July and August: 2001: 1.26; 2002: 1.31; 2003: 3.05. 01-03 GS/G IP H/HR K:BB W-L/S ERA July 15/15 102.2 113/9 55:24 5-5/0 4.56 August 15/16 94.2 112/17 48:36 5-8/0 6.47 04JUL 5/5 31.0 32/5 21:16 3-1/0 5.52 Given the trend depicted in his 54320 current QA log, Suppan severely concerns me, especially since the 29-year-old does not own particularly strong skills. However, the Cardinals' great defense keeps his hit rate down, Suppan isn't allowing an abundance of homers, and his August schedule includes starts against the Expos, Marlins, Braves, Pirates, and Reds. Considering Suppan also should rebound from any struggles with a strong September, he looks like a sleeper pitcher to target, especially if you can leave him reserved until his QA scores show improvement. Steve Sparks, RH Swingman, ARI: +1.74 ERA Yearly ERA increase between July and August: 2001: 1.80; 2002: 2.10; 2003: 0.48. 01-03 GS/G IP H/HR K:BB W-L/S ERA July 10/17 85.0 91/9 49:29 5-4/0 4.02 August 13/21 100.0 122/18 63:29 5-9/0 5.76 04JUL 3/4 17.1 25/4 11:6 0-2/0 10.39 The only good news here is that sparks' meltdown this month leaves him little chance of pitching much worse in August. Arizona finally appears prepared to allow youngsters like Edgar Gonzalez and Lance Cormier to start through October, a decision that should keep Sparks in the long relief role that offers no upside for fantasy owners. While he generally finishes the year on a strong note, declining skills, an unfriendly home park, and shoddy defensive support render the 39-year-old effectively useless. Sparks owns one of the worst roto values in baseball right now, so deal or cut him if you accidentally added him while chasing wins earlier this year. As Joel Pineiro appears out indefinitely and might miss the rest of the season, I see no reason to discuss him, especially since he generally slumps in August. Internet Challenge SP(6) Pedro Martinez: Sun:@MIN(Joh.Santana) Randy Johnson: Fri:@COL(J.Jennings) Javier Vazquez: Sat:BAL(E.Bedard) Jason Schmidt: Sun:STL(W.Williams) Roy Oswalt: Sun:@CIN(Pa.Wilson) Kevin Brown: Fri:BAL(D.Cabrera) Josh Beckett: Fri:MON(L.Hernandez) No starts: Schilling, Mussina, T.Hudson, Wood, and Affeldt. As Randy normally pitches well in Colorado and should stay in Arizona, we're going to risk running both him and a returning Kevin Brown, along with our four other healthy pitchers, and leave Blisterman Beckett on our bench. Despite his mild comeback over the past couple days, Herges also remains benched indefinitely. Piazza and Fullmer stay glued to our bench, and Orlando Hudson also isn't impressing. While we'd like to deploy Juan Pierre and Vernon Wells, we neither possess any available cap room nor easily identifiable roster slots. The Umpire Hunter(20th lg; 569th overall) Week 17b: July 30-August 1 C Jason Varitek 680 C Victor Martinez 450 1B Lyle Overbay 400 1B Mark Teixeira 760 2B Alfonso Soriano 1930 2B Mark Loretta 820 3B Scott Rolen 1460 3B Joe Crede 600 SS Alex Rodriguez 2010 SS Kazuo Matsui 750 OF Carlos Beltran 1760 OF Carl Crawford 1040 OF Scott Podsednik 980 OF Brad Wilkerson 690 OF Adam Dunn 690 OF Miguel Cabrera 570 DH Hank Blalock 850 DH Alex Cintron 450 SP Pedro Martinez 1800 SP Randy Johnson 1550 SP Javier Vazquez 1280 SP Jason Schmidt 1240 SP Roy Oswalt 1200 SP Kevin Brown 1180 RP Eric Gagne 1890 RP Octavio Dotel 1250 RP Danny Kolb 940 RP Joe Nathan 720 Total Salary for Week 17b: 29940 Today's Fantasy Rx: With teams apparently prepared to wait until early Saturday afternoon at the trade deadline to complete any moves, feel free to take a break this evening to catch the end of the DNC coverage from 8-10 PM(CDT). The acceptance speeches of John Kerry tonight and George W. Bush on September 2nd should offer two distinct visions for America's future, and watching both will aid in making an informed decision on November 2nd. While on the subject of elections, please also make sure everyone in your family eligible to vote is registered to vote in your district. Click here to read the previous article. Please e-mail your comments to tim@rotohelp.com.
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