Today's Fantasy Rx

Today I'm reviewing pitchers who, over the past three years, saw their ERA drop by at least 1.50 from June to July. We only looked at pitchers who compiled at least a total of 30 IP in both months over the past three years. They also must show a drop in ERA from June to July while registering at least 10 IP in both months in each of the last three years.

Bartolo Colon qualified for today's list strictly due to a rebound from his placement on last month's Squashed Junebugs list. Instead of discussing him in detail again, I'll briefly summarize my current recommendations before continuing with new players.

Bartolo Colon, RH Starter, ANA: -2.17 ERA. May: deal.
With a 00224 current QA log suggesting minimal immediate upside, Colon looks like a tremendous free agent bust for the Angels. Allowing a home run nearly every four innings seriously diminishes his overall value, and his numbers thus far this month give us little reason to hope for improvement. Colon owns a 1-3 record and a 6.52 ERA on a 21:9 K:BB in 29 IP over 5 GS with 39 H, 8 HR, and a .84 G-F. Despite some indication of an inflated ERA based on a surprisingly high hit rate and solid command, only attempt to add Colon to your team if you obtain him at an obvious bargain and you can leave him reserved if he continues struggling. I can't imagine his value can drop much further.
June: target.

Livan Hernandez, RH Starter, MON: -2.07 ERA 
Yearly ERA decrease between June and July:
2001: 0.65; 2002: 1.56; 2003: 3.50.
01-03	GS/G	IP	H/HR	K:BB	W-L/S	ERA
June	17/17	111.1	139/16	78:38	6-10/0	5.42
July	17/17	123.2	121/12	95:44	8-4/0	3.35

04JUN	4/4	31.0	28/5	23:13	1-2/0	3.19

While Hernandez's current 34323 QA log doesn't compare favorably with his scores earlier this season, neither his homer nor walk problems particularly concern me. He leaves Puerto Rico, hopefully for good, at the conclusion of the first half, and since Hernandez also historically improves in the second half of each season, now looks like a great time to acquire him. Montreal's offense should continue improving thanks to the improvement demonstrated by Nick Johnson, Jose Vidro, and Brad Wilkerson even if the Expos deal Orlando Cabrera and Carl Everett; adding younger players also should improve the team defense and keep Hernandez's hit rate low. I see very little not to like here, so while you shouldn't expect Hernandez to win more than another half-dozen games this year, he should cruise to a $20 value thanks to his increasingly impressive qualitative stats.

Ismael Valdez, RH Starter, SD: -1.93 ERA 
Yearly ERA decrease between June and July:
2001: 1.99; 2002: 1.40; 2003: 1.72.
01-03	GS/G	IP	H/HR	K:BB	W-L/S	ERA
June	13/13	78.0	89/10	42:16	5-4/0	5.54
July	15/15	89.2	90/14	46:21	4-6/0	3.61

04JUN	4/4	26.0	23/2	11:5	2-1/0	3.46

Watching Valdez's strikeout rate descend for the fifth straight year, now down to a meager 3.2 K/9, might concern me if he wasn't pitching in an extreme pitchers' park in front of a respectable defense. San Diego even owns the best bullpen in the league, which nicely increases the odds of Valdez winning several more games this year. A 34043 current QA log suggests minimal downside, and although he certainly isn't a great addition for fantasy teams, he provides welcome help both in wins and qualitative categories. Any attempt to acquire Valdez now should pay nice dividends over the rest of the year.

Aaron Sele, RH Starter, ANA: -1.91 ERA 
Yearly ERA decrease between June and July:
2001: 3.11; 2002: 0.57; 2003: 2.37.
01-03	GS/G	IP	H/HR	K:BB	W-L/S	ERA
June	17/17	98.0	110/13	45:37	6-6/0	5.05
July	16/16	103.1	98/8	46:27	7-6/0	3.14

04JUN	2/2	11.0	14/2	3:5	0-0/0	6.55

Since Sele should start Saturday, his two-week DL stint due to shoulder fatigue doesn't overly concern me. Of course, while he excelled in 6 May starts, Anaheim's increasing bullpen and defensive difficulties make all of their pitchers moderately risky. Sele also owns very questionable skills, particularly inconsistent control that leaves him vulnerable to qualitative disasters. The nearly 34-year-old Sele also normally slumps in August, and since we don't know how he'll recover after missing two weeks, shop Sele even if you benefited from his early success.

Due to the lack of an expected return date from his injury, I didn't discuss Byung-Hyun Kim even though he generally improves in July. Wait until you see him playing regularly on a rehab assignment in the upper minors before taking any action involving him.

Today's Fantasy Rx: San Diego and Minnesota are the only teams likely to finish above .500 that Kansas City faces this month, and neither possesses a great offense. Yes, the Royals soon will deal several players, but Zach Greinke, Jeremy Affeldt, Dennys Reyes, Nate Field, and even Jimmy Gobble and Darrell May could enjoy very strong months thanks to their weak opponents.

Of course, Minnesota faces an easier schedule, highlighted by four games against the White Sox and a series against Boston that ends the month. While they face more dangerous opponents in August, grabbing Twins' pitchers now should provide you with a welcome short-term boost.

No National League club faces a similarly easy run, though if Florida continues destroying Philadelphia, the Marlins could coast through July.