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July
3rd
2004
Your Daily Fantasy Rx
Rotohelp
2004 NL LPR through 13 Weeks
by Tim Polko

Today's Fantasy Rx

Welcome to our weekly LPR rankings, our primary method to identify highly skilled and/or consistently effective pitchers. While we haven't changed this system since the second half of last season, feel free to refer here for a complete description of the codes. We've included the five most recent 2004 QA scores for each starter, along with the 10 most recent QA scores for each reliever, tabulating all data through June 30th. Pitchers with no QA scores have not pitched this year, so don't roster any of them unless you see someone ready to return to the majors.


1
2AX - Brad Penny(34342)
3ABCXZ - Randy Johnson(34445)
3ABCXZ - Odalis Perez(35445)
ABCY - Jason Schmidt(53341)
ACX - Ben Sheets(3354)
A - Doug Davis(02553).

abcxy - Braden Looper(3455345543)
ax - Akinori Otsuka(4454443522)
ax - Ryan Madson(1444323344)
ax - Orber Moreno(4533344230)

Madson switched with Miceli, however the significant development here is that no Cub qualified for the top ranking for the first time this season. Clement and Hawkins slipped, Carlos Zambrano hasn't rebouned quite yet, Kerry Wood remains disabled, and Mark Prior's still warming up. Nevertheless, I still like the Cubs' pitching, and starters like Maddux appear very underrated, but I'm still disappointed to present an LPR ranking without anyone from the staff up here.


2
3CXZ - Kevin Millwood(03344)
ABCXYZ - Mark Prior(40443)

Prior appears nicely on track to reach the top ranking by the end of July. Go get him now in single-season leagues before he fixes his ground-fly rate and achieves untouchable status.

3abcxyz - Billy Wagner(4534553353)
3abcxyz - John Smoltz(5542444344)
3abcxyz - LaTroy Hawkins(4255343432)
3byz - Joe Borowski(2433341342)
abcxyz - Eric Gagne(4544454435)
abcxyz - Mike Koplove(0543333133)
abx - Guillermo Mota(4545323343)
byz - Rheal Cormier(2334254435)
bcz - Tim Spooneybarger
by - Javier Lopez(3343330444)


3
ABCXYZ - Roy Oswalt(50435)
CZ - Matt Morris(14454)
C - Woody Williams(53343)

abcxyz - Jason Isringhausen(5343432545)
by - Jay Witasick(3521234442)
cz - Steve Reed(3323535523)
cz - Robb Nen


A
BCXY - Roger Clemens(42044)
CXYz - Carlos Zambrano(44431)
BCZ - Matt Clement(45540)
CXZ - Jeff Weaver(33453)
CXZ - Greg Maddux(55430)
BC - Andy Pettitte(44304)
CX - Jake Peavy(44344)
CZ - Brian Lawrence(54543)
Xc - Carl Pavano(45445)
X - Jason Marquis(44443)
X - Chris Carpenter(23554)
X - Jerome Williams(44104)
X - Joe Kennedy(03343)
c - Zach Day(40421)
Russ Ortiz(24433)
Cory Lidle(02443)
Kerry Wood(25550)

Only Andy Pettitte and Chris Carpenter reach this level as Livan Hernandez, Wade Miller, Rusch, Willis, and Estes all slip down the rankings.


B
XY - Brandon Webb(33442)
C - Wade Miller(04442)
X - Livan Hernandez(41233)
Y - Josh Beckett(44400)
x - Jeff Fassero(32333)
Todd Van Poppel(53222)
Andrew Good(0)
Michael Tejera(0)

Yax - Darren Dreifort(4355354355)
Y - Juan Cruz(2522335445)
x - Amaury Telemaco(3433334030)
y - Adam Bernero
Jim Brower(4332445334)


C
Y - Kip Wells(30052)
Z - A.J. Burnett(00340)
Z - John Patterson(4044)
Adam Eaton(42344)
David Wells(34432)
Al Leiter(23342)
Casey Fossum(04050)


X
Z - Vicente Padilla(53233)
Tom Glavine(34342)
Victor Santos(33405)


Y
Z - Randy Wolf(23530)
Dustin Hermanson(52341)
Tony Armas, Jr.(43003)


Z
Oliver Perez(22333)


a
bcxz - Ray King(4534534535)
bcxz - Chris Reitsma(4523334454)
bcxz - Luis Vizcaino(4434340452)
bxyz - Danny Kolb(3453544453)
cxyz - Antonio Alfonseca(4425444555)
bcx - Mike Lincoln(4245453341)
bxy - Kyle Farnsworth(2545532554)
bxy - Luis Ayala(342244255)
cxz - Trevor Hoffman(4552345544)
cxz - Billy Koch(4224323343)
cxz - Armando Almanza(334444031)
bx - Brad Lidge(4344444443)
bx - Armando Benitez(5443324432)
by - Julian Tavarez(4532541333)
by - Jose Valverde(3132442434)
cx - Danny Graves(3443144544)
cx - Steve Kline(4355245544)
cx - John Riedling(2323444225)
cy - Brian Fuentes(3515234442)
xy - John Franco(3354443153)
c - Randy Choate(4445425344)
c - Brian Boehringer(2433434431)
x - Kiko Calero(4454455343)
x - Mike Gonzalez(4333534542)
x - Salomon Torres(4555440545)
x - Mike Adams(4332424454)
x - Scott Linebrink(4323443535)
x - T.J. Tucker(5543443322)
x - Dan Miceli(2542355330)
x - Elmer Dessens(4342443235)
x - Darren Oliver(3434244341)
x - Tommy Phelps(3352455450)
x - Brian Bruney(3344442342)
y - Brian Meadows(3244532340)
y - Rocky Biddle(5344235422)
y - Oscar Villarreal(1544430332)
z - Brandon Villafuerte(1443442423)
Phil Norton(5530322543)
Joe Horgan(4145452414)
Wilson Alvarez(2545234223)
Tim Harikkala(4310444214)

A surprisingly quiet week finds only Darren Oliver earning an ax rating while Horgan joins the lowest level of the tier.


b
cxyz - Tim Worrell(4434343351)
cxy - Matt Herges(5234333333)
cxz - Mike Remlinger(3245043353)
cz - Roberto Hernandez(4343131205)
cz - Joey Eischen
cz - Paul Shuey
cz - Mike Crudale
yz - Matt Mantei(4024421333)
c - Scott Strickland
x - Scott Service(3343135442)
y - Tom Martin(4033302433)
y - Rod Beck(2443230154)
Dave Burba(3325533431)
Cal Eldred(2405314545)
Kevin Gryboski(2415303442)
Jason Simontacchi(212234)
Will Cunnane(341043333)
Troy Brohawn


c
Sun-Woo Kim(00510)

xz - Ricky Bottalico(3553533334)
xz - Todd Jones(3222333335)
yz - Ricky Stone(2354222333)
z - Eddie Oropesa(3040332450)
z - Mike Fetters
z - Brian Bowles
z - Dave Coggin
z - Chad Paronto
z - Al Reyes
Blaine Neal(534520)
Toby Borland(5222512431)
Travis Driskill


x
Chad Harville(3443133524)
C.J. Nitkowski(2344334432)
Chad Fox(4454433330)

With Stanton and Mesa dropping down and Sanchez and Eyre departing the rankings completely, only Harville remains healthy and active at this level.


y
y - Glendon Rusch(24443)

Mike Stanton(0454532432)
Brooks Kieschnick(0433241034)
Grant Roberts(1232)
John Foster
Scott Randall
Dave Veres


z
Jose Mesa(4142433532)
Brandon Puffer(3233224222)
Vladimir Nunez(1413324320)
Dave Elder
Dan Reichert
Chad Zerbe

While Mesa settles here thanks to decreasing dominance, he remains a quality closer who can help in almost any league.


NL starters I recommend despite their failure to appear above include Kris Benson(45523), Sean Burnett(04334), Aaron Harang(53043), and Jose Lima(54430).

Other decent relievers include Francis Beltran, Ben Howard, Matt Kinney, Josias Manzanillo, Jose Parra, Matt Wise, and David Weathers.


1 - K/9 of 6.0+, BB/9 of 3.0-, H/9 of 9.0-, HR/9 of 1.0-,
     and G-F of 1.0+ in 25+ IP in 2004.
2 - K/9 of 6.0+, BB/9 of 3.0-, H/9 of 9.0-, HR/9 of 1.0-,
     and G-F of 1.0+ in 25+ IP in 2003.
3 - K/9 of 6.0+, BB/9 of 3.0-, H/9 of 9.0-, HR/9 of 1.0-,
     and G-F of 1.0+ in 25+ IP in 2002.


QA score for starts: up to 5 total points, one for each statistical goal, to any starter who pitches at least 5 innings and fulfills any of the following skill qualifications: K>=IP-2, BB<=IP/3, H<=IP, HR<=1, and G-F>=1.00. Any starter who doesn't reach any of the required statistical goals or fails to pitch 5 innings earns a 0 QA score. Scores of 5 and 4 qualify as DOMinant outings, a 3 is DULl, and anything below 3 ranks as a skill DISaster.

QA score for relief outings: up to 5 total points, one for each statistical goal, to any reliever who retires at least one batter and fulfills any of the following skill qualifications: K>=IP, BB=0, H<=IP, HR=0, and G-F>=1.00. Any reliever who doesn't reach any of the required statistical goals or fails to retire a batter earns a 0 QA score. Scores of 5 and 4 qualify as DOMinant outings, a 3 is DULl, and anything below 3 ranks as a skill DISaster.

Note: Starters must pitch in five games before earning any of the following DOM or DIS ratings; relievers must appear in no less than 10 games before earning DOM/DIS consideration. All pitchers are evaluated as relievers aside from those who reached both 5 starts in a given season and qualified for DOM or DIS ratings.

A - QA score of 4 or 5 in at least 50% of 2004 starts
B - QA score of 4 or 5 in at least 50% of 2003 starts
C - QA score of 4 or 5 in at least 50% of 2002 starts

X - QA score below 3 in no more than 20% of 2004 starts
Y - QA score below 3 in no more than 20% of 2003 starts
Z - QA score below 3 in no more than 20% of 2002 starts

a - QA score of 4 or 5 in at least 50% of 2004 relief outings
b - QA score of 4 or 5 in at least 50% of 2003 relief outings
c - QA score of 4 or 5 in at least 50% of 2002 relief outings

x - QA score below 3 in no more than 20% of 2004 relief outings
y - QA score below 3 in no more than 20% of 2003 relief outings
z - QA score below 3 in no more than 20% of 2002 relief outings


Tomorrow, like every Sunday during the season, we'll post our preview of the coming week's games and our CDM challenge lineups.


Today's Fantasy Rx: Randy, Jake Peavy, Glavine, and Sheets rank as the safest NL starter to own. The next tier includes Joe Kennedy, who I still don't feel comfortable recommending, Odalis Perez, Oswalt, Millwood, Pavano, Carpenter and Marquis. Low-risk NL relievers include Wagner, Smoltz, Looper, Calero, Kolb, Mike Gonzalez, Hoffman, Lidge, King, Gagne, and Madson.


Click here to read the previous article.

Please e-mail your comments to tim@rotohelp.com.
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