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July
2nd
2004
Your Daily Fantasy Rx
Rotohelp
2004 AL LPR through 13 Weeks
by Tim Polko

Today's Fantasy Rx

Welcome our weekly LPR rankings, our primary method to identify highly skilled and/or consistently effective pitchers. While we haven't changed this system since the second half of last season, feel free to refer here for a complete description of the codes. We've included the five most recent 2004 QA scores for each starter, along with the 10 most recent QA scores for each reliever, tabulating all data through June 30th. Pitchers with no QA scores have not pitched this year, so don't roster any of them unless you see someone ready to return to the majors.


1
23ABXYZ - Mark Mulder(44343)
2ABCXYZ - Curt Schilling(45352)
AX - Freddy Garcia(44433)

3abcxyz - Mariano Rivera(4345545545)
abcxyz - Tom Gordon(4554553554)
abcxyz - Mike Timlin(4445414443)
axy - Francisco Rodriguez(2444444545)
ax - Shingo Takatsu(5434543452)

In a surprisingly poor weak for several pitchers, Halladay, Halama, Gregg, and Jamie Walker all slip down or off the rankings while only Mariano Rivera joins the top tier. I suspect the groundball-inducing Yankee relief aces give New York a necessary advantage over Keith Foulke's flyballs.


2
3ABCXYZ - Roy Halladay(54452)
3ABCXYZ - Pedro Martinez(24543)
3bcyz - Byung-Hyun Kim(400)
BCXYZ - Tim Hudson(34522)
BCY - Kevin Brown(30330)
BY - Esteban Loaiza(22302)
CY - Sidney Ponson(42323)
Xc - Scott Schoeneweis(33432)
B - Mike Mussina(25032)

As Hudson, Brown, and Schoeneweis all hit the DL this week, this tier appears somewhat jinxed. Of course, Halladay and Pedro remain excellent starters, however they likely cost far too much in trade unless you can find a disgruntled Boston fan irritated that Pedro doesn't have 15 wins and a sub-2.00 ERA.

3bcyz - Alan Embree(4253310532)
3acz - Arthur Rhodes(4423542124)
Baxz - Scot Shields(5454433333)
bcz - Jeremy Affeldt(432412454)
Travis Harper(2432522243)


3
abcxyz - Keith Foulke(4335444153)
abcxyz - Francisco Cordero(4414334552)
abcyz - Chad Bradford(4335442344)
acxz - Ricardo Rincon(3340235433)
bcxy - Damaso Marte(4245234444)
cyz - Buddy Groom(5341335124)


A
ABXYz - Johan Santana(34444)
AXby - Jake Westbrook(44353)
Xb - Dennys Reyes(34404)
Nate Robertson(44424)
Rich Harden(42520)
Bronson Arroyo(22442)

Poor weeks from Javier Vazquez, Gary Knotts, and Aaron Sele left this level surprisingly barren of respectable pitchers. However, Westbrook, Reyes, and Robertson all remain solid choices if you're looking for starting help, particularly in 5x5 leagues.


B
C - Javier Vazquez(54322)
Y - Joel Pineiro(24435)
Jose Contreras(04543)
Cliff Lee(21042)
Eric DuBose(32300)

Anyone interested should acquire Contreras now before his improving stats make him untouchable.


C
YZ - Tim Wakefield(20024)
Z - Mark Buehrle(34425)
Z - Derek Lowe(53352)
x - Rodrigo Lopez(24224)
Miguel Batista(45332)
Victor Zambrano(03322)
Bartolo Colon(02240)

b - Mickey Callaway(5)


X
Zach Greinke(35332)
Justin Miller(53413)

One poor start from Radke leaves Greinke as the only healthy starter here.


Y
cz - Jose Jimenez(4334513402)

Someone should tell Eric Wedge that switching closers with every new phase of the moon offers no tangible benefit to a ballclub and likely greatly irritates a relief corps that prefers stable roles.


Z
Orlando Hernandez.


a
John Halama(323)

bcxyz - Scott Williamson(2235545454)
bcxyz - Eddie Guardado(3345443233)
bcxyz - Octavio Dotel(343243233)
bcxy - Brian Shouse(4543035444)
bcxz - Ugueth Urbina(5433431423)
bcyz - Jason Grimsley(4402325454)
bcx - Jim Mecir(3554440552)
bxy - Danys Baez(3522325434)
bxy - Danny Patterson(3404342354)
bx - B.J. Ryan(3533454555)
by - David Riske(4444444252)
by - Curtis Leskanic(3441412433)
cz - Cliff Politte(5241245345)

I suspect Riske still would have straight 4's if he hadn't moved back to closer. The two red hot relievers that merit attention right now are Williamson and Ryan; feel free to add either at your earliest convenience, especially since Ryan might finish the year on a contender, making him a good bet to vulture a few wins.

b - John Parrish(4533404344)
x - Joe Nathan(2344434444)
x - Juan Rincon(4555433325)
x - Jesus Colome(4253444253)
x - Bret Prinz(5443234340)
x - Carlos Almanzar(4232453453)
x - Jason Kershner(5353434515)
J.J. Putz(4404543324)
Matt J. Miller(3442452243)
Kerry Ligtenberg(4444223135)
Frank Francisco(3442505054)
Doug Brocail(2520444343)
Rafael Betancourt(2433353341)

Jesus Colome's reemergence continues as his skills finally make him a good gamble, especially for teams with Baez. Francisco replaces Nakamura, Fultz, and Bartosh at the lowest level here.


b
c - Kelvim Escobar(54342)
Kirk Saarloos(3)

cyz - Paul Quantrill(0324234432)
cy - Brendan Donnelly(34533)
cz - Troy Percival(5303433224)
c - Jeff Nelson(4405443023)
c - Scott Sauerbeck
y - Derrick Turnbow(3334)
y - Rafael Soriano(424332)
y - Mike MacDougal(50522)
Mark Malaska(4213332411)
Jack Cressend(4243121113)
Chris Mears
Bobby Seay


c
z - Mark Hendrickson(23340)
Carlos Silva(24022)

yz - Terry Adams(3335352524)
x - Ron Villone(4544334423)
z - J.C. Romero(5433343024)
z - Rick White(3535344233)
z - Brian Anderson(4132211)
z - Chris Hammond(2431435333)
z - Ben Weber(3244323211)
z - Scott Stewart(3425334510)
z - Steve Karsay
z - Omar Daal
z - Bob Wickman
z - Gary Glover
z - Jayson Durocher
z - Jason Middlebrook
z - Britt Reames
z - Carl Sadler
Julio Mateo(4433534421)
Mike Myers(5540344504)
Justin Speier(2542413324)
Kelly Wunsch(532)
Kane Davis
Hansel Izquierdo
Jose Santiago
Mike Thurman


x
Ramon Ortiz(04154)
Chad Gaudin(0403)

z -Jaime Cerda(4233533333)
Jon Adkins(3434433533)
Jason Frasor(45313444532)
Vinnie Chulk(3333342243)
Jamie Walker(4413554532)
Trever Miller(3405234530)
Erasmo Ramirez(2333343413)

For the first time in weeks no one slipped off this level, Adkins and Walked stopped falling here, and Eddy Rodriguez joins the list after an impressive debut month.


y
Rick Helling


z
Mike DeJean(3534433515)
Mike Jackson(3214323223)
Jorge Julio(1332113443)


AL starters I recommend despite their failure to appear above include Erik Bedard(03433), Daniel Cabrera(33333), Ryan Drese(34244), Jason Johnson(35044), Gary Knotts(33432), John Lackey(45432), Jamie Moyer(33453), Brad Radke(44442), Mark Redman(43440), and Kenny Rogers(44443).

Other decent relievers include Justin Lehr, Joe Roa, Rudy Seanez, Scott Sullivan, and Esteban Yan.


1 - K/9 of 6.0+, BB/9 of 3.0-, H/9 of 9.0-, HR/9 of 1.0-,
     and G-F of 1.0+ in 25+ IP in 2004.
2 - K/9 of 6.0+, BB/9 of 3.0-, H/9 of 9.0-, HR/9 of 1.0-,
     and G-F of 1.0+ in 25+ IP in 2003.
3 - K/9 of 6.0+, BB/9 of 3.0-, H/9 of 9.0-, HR/9 of 1.0-,
     and G-F of 1.0+ in 25+ IP in 2002.


QA score for starts: up to 5 total points, one for each statistical goal, to any starter who pitches at least 5 innings and fulfills any of the following skill qualifications: K>=IP-2, BB<=IP/3, H<=IP, HR<=1, and G-F>=1.00. Any starter who doesn't reach any of the required statistical goals or fails to pitch 5 innings earns a 0 QA score. Scores of 5 and 4 qualify as DOMinant outings, a 3 is DULl, and anything below 3 ranks as a skill DISaster.

QA score for relief outings: up to 5 total points, one for each statistical goal, to any reliever who retires at least one batter and fulfills any of the following skill qualifications: K>=IP, BB=0, H<=IP, HR=0, and G-F>=1.00. Any reliever who doesn't reach any of the required statistical goals or fails to retire a batter earns a 0 QA score. Scores of 5 and 4 qualify as DOMinant outings, a 3 is DULl, and anything below 3 ranks as a skill DISaster.

Note: Starters must pitch in five games before earning any of the following DOM or DIS ratings; relievers must appear in no less than 10 games before earning DOM/DIS consideration. All pitchers are evaluated as relievers aside from those who reached both 5 starts in a given season and qualified for DOM or DIS ratings.

A - QA score of 4 or 5 in at least 50% of 2004 starts
B - QA score of 4 or 5 in at least 50% of 2003 starts
C - QA score of 4 or 5 in at least 50% of 2002 starts

X - QA score below 3 in no more than 20% of 2004 starts
Y - QA score below 3 in no more than 20% of 2003 starts
Z - QA score below 3 in no more than 20% of 2002 starts

a - QA score of 4 or 5 in at least 50% of 2004 relief outings
b - QA score of 4 or 5 in at least 50% of 2003 relief outings
c - QA score of 4 or 5 in at least 50% of 2002 relief outings

x - QA score below 3 in no more than 20% of 2004 relief outings
y - QA score below 3 in no more than 20% of 2003 relief outings
z - QA score below 3 in no more than 20% of 2002 relief outings


We'll continue tomorrow with this week's NL LPR article.


Today's Fantasy Rx: With interleague play finally concluding this weekend, AL teams all will have full-time designated hitters again, making the right selection of pitchers even more important than normal given the likely increase in offensive input over the next week. Mulder, Schilling, Freddy Garcia, Greinke, and Westbrook rank as the safest AL starter to own, and I suspect you can acquire at least one of the latter pitchers, especially in single-season leagues. Low-risk relievers include Donnelly, B.J. Ryan, Shouse, Guardado, Timlin, Almanzar, KRod, Shields, Williamson, and Frasor. As mentioned above, Ryan and Williamson appear particularly strong right now, although please take advantage of any opportunity to grab KRod while Percival's return at least temporarily lowers the youngster's value.


Click here to read the previous article.

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