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June 25th 2004 |
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Your Daily Fantasy Rx |
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by Tim Polko Welcome our weekly LPR rankings, our primary method to identify highly skilled and/or consistently effective pitchers. While we haven't changed this system since the second half of last season, feel free to refer here for a complete description of the codes. We've included the five most recent 2004 QA scores for each starter, along with the 10 most recent QA scores for each reliever, tabulating all data through June 23rd. Pitchers with no QA scores have not pitched this year, so don't roster any of them unless you see someone ready to return to the majors.
abcxyz - Tom Gordon(3434554553) Halladay flips with Pedro, finally earning his way to the top ranking despite early homer problems. The emergence of Takatsu qualifies as a much bigger surprise. Despite my significant concerns regarding his strikeout rate in Japan, he appears fully prepared to remain very successful for the White Sox. The only worrisome development here involves Gregg's increasing struggles, but his overall success to this point means we can't bet against him quite yet, although benching him temporarily is not a terrible idea.
3abcxyz - Mariano Rivera(1543455455)
Santana and Westbrook both appear locked down while Batista slips a couple rankings and Maroth and Lieber plummet off the list completely.
With his family finally out of Cuba and with Contreras, now looks like your last chance to acquire him before his value skyrockets.
b - Mickey Callaway(5)
Radke replaces Drese in a quiet week at this level.
Go get David Riske now; we haven't seen a reliever this consistently solid in a long while. Bret Prinz and Matt Miller rank among the most unheralded safe choices as roster filler right now. Doug Brocail and Cliff Bartosh both earned spots on the lowest ranking, however I haven't seen either pitcher demonstrate sufficient consistency or upside to recommend them.
cxyz - Scott Williamson(5422355454)
yz - Terry Adams(4433353525)
z -Jaime Cerda(3144423353) Chulk replaces Francisco as Ortiz reemerges as a starter.
Other decent relievers include Joe Roa, Eddy Rodriguez, and Esteban Yan.
QA score for relief outings: up to 5 total points, one for each statistical goal, to any reliever who retires at least one batter and fulfills any of the following skill qualifications: K>=IP, BB=0, H<=IP, HR=0, and G-F>=1.00. Any reliever who doesn't reach any of the required statistical goals or fails to retire a batter earns a 0 QA score. Scores of 5 and 4 qualify as DOMinant outings, a 3 is DULl, and anything below 3 ranks as a skill DISaster. Note: Starters must pitch in five games before earning any of the following DOM or DIS ratings; relievers must appear in no less than 10 games before earning DOM/DIS consideration. All pitchers are evaluated as relievers aside from those who reached both 5 starts in a given season and qualified for DOM or DIS ratings.
A - QA score of 4 or 5 in at least 50% of 2004 starts
X - QA score below 3 in no more than 20% of 2004 starts
a - QA score of 4 or 5 in at least 50% of 2004 relief outings
x - QA score below 3 in no more than 20% of 2004 relief outings
Beltran now finds himself in a much stronger lineup in a much better hitters' park. We should see his average and almost all his qualitative stats increase, although since Jimy Williams rarely lets runners run wild, a likely drop in Beltran's stolen bases probably will keep him under $40 for the year. Octavio Dotel should see more save opportunities, register a half-dozen wins, and watch his qualitative stats improve thanks to Oakland's defense and forgiving home park. I reviewed Mike Wood a couple weeks ago and only didn't recommend him since he only appeared likely to pitch in long relief for Oakland. Joining Kansas City significantly increases his immediate fantasy potential, especially since he should double-start next week against Baltimore and San Diego. Strongly consider adding him to your team if available as long as you can afford the chance of qualitative problems. John Buck also caught my eye while reviewing prospects this month, and considering his very impressive numbers for AAA New Orleans(PCL), I see no reason he can't enjoy some success as Kansas City's current starting catcher. I don't envision him developing into an All-Star, but he'll help teams over the balance of this season before approaching $10 in 2005. Anyone who needs quantitative help should try to add Buck immediately, especially if you can grab him cheaply and then keep him for a couple years. Mark Teahen probably qualifies as the centerpiece of the trade for Kansas City, and while he doesn't look like a future superstar, he possesses impressive long-term upside. Don't expect him in the majors for a few weeks since the Royals don't appear in a rush to trade Joe Randa, but definitely aim for Teahen once he reaches the majors. Although an unimpressive contact rate and limited power production suggests he'll develop slowly, he at least merits fantasy consideration since he owns a nearly guaranteed starting job next season. Wood, Buck, Teahen, and David DeJesus, just recalled to replace Beltran in center for the rest of the decade, all should start next season in the majors; the three position players should appear in the 2004 Opening Day lineup. However, please do not expect any of the new Royals to immediately start justifying the trade for Kansas City since all three players will struggle at times before developing into primary parts of the next Royals' playoff team.
Click
here to read the previous article.
Please e-mail your comments to
tim@rotohelp.com. |
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