Today's Fantasy Rx

Today I'm reviewing pitchers who, over the past three years, saw their ERA jump by at least 1.50 from June to July. We only looked at pitchers who compiled at least a total of 30 IP in both months over the past three years. They also must show a drop in ERA from June to July while registering at least 10 IP in both months in each of the last three years.

Jim Brower qualified for today's list strictly due to a rebound from his placement on last month's Junebugs list. Instead of discussing him in detail again, I'll briefly summarize my current recommendations before continuing with new players.

Jim Brower, RH Reliever, SF: +2.52 ERA. June: target.
Instead of improving again in June, Brower owns a miserable 8.49 ERA on a 9:5 K:BB in 11.2 IP with 14 H, 2 HR, and a 1.07 G-F. The collapse of his previously 2.10 G-F worries me more than his ERA since his elevated hit rate accounts for much of the qualitative damage. However, the Giants don't own a great defense, so he could continue allowing an abundance of hits. Allowing at least two runs in five separate outings this month also bodes ill for Brower's continue success, so employing him now is probably a bad idea until you see him compile several strong appearances in a row.
June: deal or cut.

Odalis Perez, LH Starter, LA: +3.51 ERA 
Yearly ERA increase between June and July:
2001: 5.36; 2002: 4.95; 2003: 0.97.
01-03	GS/G	IP	H/HR	K:BB	W-L/S	ERA
June	17/17	112.0	93/9	84:25	7-6/0	3.21
July	12/12	64.1	79/15	51:17	3-7/0	6.72

04JUN	4/4	27.2	25/2	19:5	2-0/0	2.28

With only two wins in his last 10 starts, Perez won't make the All-Star team despite ranking among the half-dozen best pitchers in the league. He also isn't providing sufficient compensation for his fantasy owners, however his superb qualitative stats at least minimize the irritation from the lack of wins. A 53544 current QA log solidifies his place as a premier pitcher, yet despite his overall outstanding skill set, Perez appears ready to slump. His upcoming opponents include the Angels on Saturday, and then the Angels again, the Diamondbacks twice, and then possibly starts in both Minute Maid and Coors. Starting games in Anaheim, Arizona, Houston, and Colorado in one month is not a recommended way to keep a low ERA, so if you see an owner willing to gamble that Perez will remain very effective and begin accumulating wins, deal the Dodgers' ace before you watch his trade value consistently decline over the next month.

Shawn Estes, LH Starter, COL: +1.70 ERA 
Yearly ERA increase between June and July:
2001: 1.41; 2002: 1.22; 2003: 3.61.
01-03	GS/G	IP	H/HR	K:BB	W-L/S	ERA
June	15/15	94.1	87/5	62:46	5-4/0	3.91
July	16/16	86.2	100/14	58:57	3-7/0	5.61

04JUN	5/5	31.0	30/3	22:22	2-0/0	4.36

His current 43334 QA log almost makes me believe that Estes could contribute to some fantasy teams, but unless you see him maintaining these skills after moving to a team in a much friendlier pitchers' park, you can't consider him for your team. While Estes didn't destroy any team's qualitative stats this month, only a respectable 1.84 G-F and correspondingly solid homer rate limits the effects of his terrible command. Deal or cutEstes if you picked him up for any reason since he only should hurt fantasy teams over the balance of the season.

Since he hasn't pitched this year and might miss all season, I see no reason to discuss Denny Neagle even though he generally slumps in July. Of course, you also shouldn't consider adding him to your roster as long as he remains with Colorado.

Internet Challenge

The Beltran trade means we need to replace Rhodes, and since we don't quite trust Lidge, we'll grab Danny Kolb, since he appears quite safe to own. While this leaves us with two moves remaining, we own good depth at most positions and hopefully can head upward until September expansion.

SP(6)
Pedro Martinez: Fri:PHI(P.Abbott)
Curt Schilling: Sun:PHI(B.Myers)
Mike Mussina: Sun:NYM(M.Ginter)
Tim Hudson: Sun:SF(D.Hermanson)
Roy Oswalt: Sun:@TEX(R.Drese)
Jeremy Affeldt: 3 Home vs. STL.

No starts: Randy, Halladay, Vazquez, Wood, Brown, Beckett.

With only six healthy pitchers starting, we'll deploy those six.

We don't own cap room for Piazza, Ichiro, or Crawford, and Hudson, Kaz Matsui, and Vernon Wells will stay benched to keep Pierre, Podsednik, Fullmer, Crede, and Cintron active.

The Umpire Hunter(16th lg; 514th overall)
Week 12b: June 25-June 27

C	Jason Varitek		680 
C	Victor Martinez		450
1B	Lyle Overbay		400
1B	Mark Teixeira		760
2B	Alfonso Soriano		1930
3B	Scott Rolen		1460 
3B	Hank Blalock		850
SS	Alex Rodriguez		2010 
SS	Alex Cintron		450
OF	Carlos Beltran		1760 
OF	Juan Pierre		1470 
OF	Scott Podsednik		980
OF	Brad Wilkerson		690 
OF	Adam Dunn		690
OF	Miguel Cabrera		570 
DH	Brad Fullmer		700 
DH	Joe Crede		600

SP	Pedro Martinez		1800
SP	Curt Schilling		1610 
SP	Mike Mussina		1380 
SP	Tim Hudson		1320 
SP	Roy Oswalt		1200
SP	Jeremy Affeldt		650
RP	Eric Gagne		1890
RP	Octavio Dotel		1250
RP	Danny Kolb		940
RP	Matt Herges		670

Total Salary for Week 12b: 	29980

Today's Fantasy Rx: Yesterday, I commented on a couple teams who enjoy particularly friendlier schedules next month. Unfortunately, the combination of warm weather, a horde of injured pitchers, and natural schedule irregularities leave a couple teams' pitchers particularly subject to qualitative disasters.

Although no American League team faces overly disastrous road trips, two NL clubs worry me. Aside from one relaxing week in Los Angeles and San Francisco, they host those same clubs, along with Minnesota, Houston, and Colorado, before finishing the month in Houston and Colorado. No Diamondbacks' pitchers save Randy, Koplove, Webb, and eventually Valverde look safe in July.

Los Angeles hits the Arizona/Colorado/Houston trifecta and even spends next weekend in Anaheim. Of course, home games in Dodger Stadium allow us to worry less, but exercise some discretion when employing Dodgers as roster filler. With San Francisco and San Diego also heading to Colorado next month, make sure to check the upcoming two weeks of games before rostering new pitchers from those teams.