Today's Fantasy Rx

Today I'm reviewing pitchers who, over the past three years, saw their ERA jump by at least 1.50 from May to June. We only looked at pitchers who compiled at least a total of 30 IP in both months over the past three years. They also must show a drop in ERA from May to June while registering at least 10 IP in both months in each of the last three years.

Jeff Weaver, RH Starter, LA: +2.28 ERA 
Yearly ERA increase between May and June:
2001: 5.17; 2002: 1.09; 2003: 1.30.
01-03	GS/G	IP	H/HR	K:BB	W-L/S	ERA
May	16/16	113.2	104/4	80:36	6-6/0	3.17
June	16/18	107.1	124/16	73:33	5-7/0	5.45

04MAY	4/4	27.0	25/1	25:7	2-2/0	3.67

Weaver's May numbers appear extremely strong. His 43524 current QA log suggests significant upside and only limited immediate downside. Pitching for the Dodgers also curtails many qualitative problems thanks to the strong defense and bullpen. Yet Weaver normally struggles in June due to a combination of hit and homer problems, and his 1.17 G-F this season doesn't give him a good chance to solve the latter problem. He also looks on schedule to face the Brewers, Blue Jays, Red Sox, Yankees, and Giants next month, not to mention possible July starts in Houston and Colorado. Despite his currently solid skills, I expect him to experience his normal struggles next month, making him a good pitcher to shop now while his value seems strong. Don't give him away since Weaver appears likely to rebound rather nicely in September, but moving him now should maximize your return if you don't want to deal with this level of inconsistency.

Bartolo Colon, RH Starter, ANA: +2.10 ERA 
Yearly ERA increase between May and June:
2001: 1.77; 2002: 2.49; 2003: 1.21.
01-03	GS/G	IP	H/HR	K:BB	W-L/S	ERA
May	16/16	120.1	109/16	79:30	8-5/0	3.07
June	16/16	101.0	106/18	86:37	6-6/0	5.17

04MAY	5/5	29.2	33/8	23:12	1-1/0	6.37

Given his poor performance this month, I won't be surprised if Bartolo bounces back in June before struggling when he normally improves in July. Of course, his 43222 current QA log suggests a consistent level of mediocrity, and both his weak walk rate and severe homer problems leave him vulnerable to qualitative disasters even with the support of Anaheim's outstanding bullpen. Colon opens June with home starts against Boston, Cleveland, and the Cubs before likely facing Houston and then Oakland twice. Considering Anaheim's depleted lineup and the playoff aspirations of all his upcoming opponents save Cleveland, Colon might only win a couple games while sinking your qualitative stats. He still qualifies as Anaheim's designated ace, but he conversely appears likely to continue struggling through the All-Star break. Unless you desperately need wins and innings right now, try to deal Colon while his stats remain relatively respectable and potentially prepared to return to his normally impressive level of effectiveness.

Woody Williams, RH Starter, STL: +1.62 ERA 
Yearly ERA increase between May and June:
2001: 3.19; 2002: 0.05; 2003: 1.77.
01-03	GS/G	IP	H/HR	K:BB	W-L/S	ERA
May	15/15	105.0	95/12	80:20	8-2/0	2.83
June	16/16	109.1	105/17	73:28	6-6/0	4.45

04MAY	4/4	26.0	28/3	17:8	1-3/0	4.50

I see little to like in the stats of the 37-year-old Williams, and owners in leagues with conservative transaction rules likely wish Williams would begin experiencing his normal arm problems in even-numbered years. The most welcome sign here is a career-best 1.15 G-F, which indicates he may not experience his normal summer homer problems. His 21442 current QA log also offers some potential for dominance, but after his Saturday start in Houston, Williams will face the Pirates, Cubs, and Astros on the road, followed by Cincinnati, Kansas City, and Pittsburgh. Yes, only the Astros and Reds possess particularly prolific offenses, however Williams' 5.6 K/9 and 1.8 BB/9 both worry me, especially considering his advancing age. At least shop Williams in an attempt to swap him for a younger starter with more immediate upside like Kip Wells, who soon should head to a contender, or almost any of the normally underrated starters on the Phillies, Padres, or Giants.

Due to the lack of an expected return date from his injury, I didn't discuss Omar Daal even though he generally slumps in June. Wait until you see him playing regularly on a rehab assignment in the upper minors before taking any action involving him.

Internet Challenge

We desperately need an offensive boost here, so we'll add Victor Martinez as a third catcher while releasing Richard Hidalgo, who isn't producing at all and likely won't return to our lineup any time soon.

SP(6)
Pedro Martinez: Fri:SEA(J.Pineiro)
Curt Schilling: Sun:SEA(R.Franklin)
Randy Johnson: Fri:@LA(W.Alvarez)
Tim Hudson: Sun:@CLE(J.Davis)
Javier Vazquez: Fri:@TB(D.Waechter)
Kevin Brown: Sat:@TB(M.Hendrickson)
Josh Beckett: Sun:NYM(S.Trachsel)
Shawn Chacon: 3 Road at SF.

No starts: Mussina, Halladay, Oswalt, Wood, Contreras.

We don't want to run Hudson after his disaster on Tuesday in Boston, and then since we're concerned Brown might miss his revised start, we'll deploy Chacon.

Fullmer, Hinske, and Hidalgo stay benched. To accommodate our three pitching studs, Kaz Matsui, Juan Pierre, and Victor Martinez head to our lineup while Cintron, Wilkerson, and the slumping Carlos Beltran take a seat.

The Umpire Hunter(14th lg; 475th overall)
Week 8b: May 28-May 30

C	Mike Piazza		990
C	Jason Varitek		680
1B	Lyle Overbay		400
1B	Mark Teixeira		760
2B	Alfonso Soriano		1930
2B	Orlando Hudson		550
3B	Hank Blalock		850
3B	Joe Crede		600
SS	Alex Rodriguez		2010 
SS	Kazuo Matsui		750
OF	Ichiro Suzuki		1560
OF	Vernon Wells		1150 
OF	Carl Crawford		1040
OF	Scott Podsednik		980
OF	Adam Dunn		690
OF	Miguel Cabrera		570 
DH	Juan Pierre		1470
DH	Victor Martinez		450

SP	Pedro Martinez		1800
SP	Curt Schilling		1610 
SP	Randy Johnson		1550 
SP	Javier Vazquez		1280  
SP	Josh Beckett		990 
SP	Shawn Chacon		630
RP	Eric Gagne		1890
RP	Octavio Dotel		1250
RP	Arthur Rhodes		800
RP	Matt Herges		670

Total Salary for Week 8b: 	29900

Today's Fantasy Rx: Two injury-depleted AL East teams recently called up intriguing offensive prospects, and both merit immediate recommendations.

Toronto promoted Alexis Rios, widely considered among the best prospects in baseball prior to the season due to his five-tool talent and a very impressive .352/.402/.521 last season at AA New Haven(EL). Unfortunately, the 23-year-old currently looks like a very poor choice by the Blue Jays. In 185 at-bats for AAA Syracuse(IL), he owns a .259/.292/.373 with 3 HR, 23 RBI, 14 R, 2/3 SB%, and a 9:30 BB:K. None of these marks suggests he can contribute more in the majors right now than alternative choices like Howie Clark or Simon Pond. Offering a token FAAB bid on him is a decent idea in case he takes advantages of this opportunity, but unless you're hoping to secure his service for a few years in keeper leagues, ignore Rios since I don't expect him to post positive fantasy value in 2004 if he begins starting regularly.

While the Blue Jays promoted the multi-talented Rios, who should develop into an offensive star, Boston recalled a minor leaguer far better prepared to contribute now. With Bill Mueller out for several weeks and Kevin Youkilis set at third base, the Red Sox added the 28-year-old C/1B/DH Andy Dominique to their roster. After posting a .304/.364/.502 in 289 at-bats at AAA Pawtucket(IL) last season, he currently owns a .321/.418/.527 with 7 HR, 38 RBI, 25 R, 0/1 SB%, and a 25:30 BB:K in 165 AB at Pawtucket this year. He qualifies among the league leaders in several categories and .285 MjEQA makes him more likely to succeed right now than current Red Sox Kevin Millar, Brian Daubach, Dave McCarty, Gabe Kapler, and Cesar Crespo. With up to two of those players needed in the everyday lineup until Nomar, Nixon, and Mueller all return, Dominique could earn significant playing time if given a chance. Of course, Boston may just keep him on the bench for a couple weeks, but especially if Dominique qualifies at catcher in your league, immediately target him if you could use a quality offensive sleeper.