Today's Fantasy Rx

Arizona: Alex Cintron, SS
31/236 for .258/.307/.360 with 1 HR, 19 RBI, 25 R, 2/4 SB%,
and a 17:27 BB:K.

After his surprisingly solid 2003 and an April when he managed a .272/.341/.395 on a 9:7 BBK in 81 at-bats, we expected Cintron to continue improving into one of the better offensive shortstops in the league. He instead regressed severely in May, and now he hasn't walked once since June began. Of course, his skills otherwise remain rather close to his established levels, so we should see all his averages improve by a couple dozen points over the rest of the season. Consider Cintron a solid target since his value only should increase this year.

Atlanta: Rafael Furcal, SS
41/160 for .256/.324/.375 with 3 HR, 13 RBI, 27 R, 7/8 SB%,
and a 16:26 BB:K.

Furcal suffered through back problems in April before slumping in May as a result of multiple injuries to his right hand. Of course, his all-around skill set seems stronger than any season since his rookie year in 2000. The 25-year-old shortstop still has a lot of room to grow into a star, and if he can avoid further injury, he should post impressive stats despite not equaling his performance last year. Look to acquire Furcal if you need steals and BA boost.

Chicago Cubs: Corey Patterson, OF
62/235 for .264/.328/.417 with 8 HR, 26 RBI, 33 R, 9/11 SB%,
and a 21:54 BB:K.

With the Wrigley populace unwilling to concede that injuries bear nearly all responsibility for the Cubs' unimpressive start to the season, the 24-year-old centerfielder increasingly receives a chorus of boos when he stumbles. Yes, his 3.33 #P/PA is worrisome, and a career-low .86 G-F is a concern considering the significant drop from last year's .511 SLG. However, a .09 walk rate is a great sign given his impatience history. Once Patterson nudges his contact rate from .77 past .80, we should see him regularly post a .280 BA while approaching 30/30 annually. I still expect him to enjoy an extremely bright future, not to mention a promising present, so take advantage of his perceived problems to acquire Patterson from any disgruntled Cubs' fans in your leagues.

Cincinnati: Ryan Freel, 3B/OF
47/192 for .245/.361/.344 with 1 HR, 8 RBI, 25 R, 10/14 SB%,
and a 28:32 BB:K.

Nothing here particularly disappoints me, especially since his ten steals already exceed last season's total. Career-best marks of a .3.98 #P/PA and .15 walk rate also demonstrate excellent patience, so only the drop from a .91 contact rate to an .83 mark accounts for Freel's reduced average. A 1.91 G-F similarly indicates falling power potential, so while he still belongs in the lineup every day, he won't contribute much to fantasy teams other than steals and perhaps an acceptable BA. Of course, he'll finish near a $20 value if he continues on his current pace towards 30 steals, so target Freel if you need speed.

Colorado: Todd Helton, 1B
70/203 for .345/.464/.601 with 11 HR, 35 RBI, 43 R, 1/1 SB%,
and a 45:22 BB:K.

While both his skills and batting effectiveness appear in line with his marks over the last few seasons, Helton only ranks third on Colorado in both homers and RBI. Of course, the reason Vinny Castilla and Jeromy Burnitz outdistance Helton in RBI is due to the Rockies' first baseman consistently providing his teammates with someone to drive home. The 30-year-old Helton also owns a .89 contact rate and .81 G-F, so we should see him demonstrate more power over the balance of the season since he seems over the oblique strain that limited him to 2 homers in May. If you can afford the already lofty trade cost for one of the league's top hitters, attempt to acquire Helton if you need a four-category offensive boost.

Florida: Luis Castillo, 2B
69/236 for .292/.357/.364 with 2 HR, 27 RBI, 34 R, 10/12 SB%,
and a 25:27 BB:K.

A 3.90 #P/PA and .11 walk rate indicate Castillo remains a relatively patient player who holds his average near .300 thanks to registering a 3.61 G-F and then taking advantage of his strong speed skills. With essentially all his skills in line with his established marks, only his unimpressive 25-steal pace worries me. Yet he still seems undervalued after he only stole 21 bases in 40 attempts last year. His significantly increased success level this season makes Castillo a decent target since he'll hold a high average while potentially stealing a couple dozen more bases due the increased opportunities generated by a rising on-base percentage.

Houston: Brad Ausmus, C
47/182 for .258/.312/.330 with 2 HR, 15 RBI, 16 R, 1/1 SB%,
and a 13:27 BB:K.

Despite currently owning his highest batting average since returning to Houston in 2001, the 35-year-old does not appear a good player to own on fantasy teams. A career-worst 3.19 #P/PA and poor 1.81 G-F leave him with a very weak secondary average, so he isn't contributing anywhere save BA. While I expect he can hold his current averages, I see no upside here, and increasingly impressive AAA prospect John Buck soon should challenge for big league playing time. Shop Ausmus to teams with even worse catchers in the hope you at least can convert his mediocre BA into someone with moderate power potential.

Los Angeles: Dave Ross, C
10/56 for .179/.217/.304 with 2 HR, 5 RBI, 3 R, 0/0 SB%,
and a 2:20 BB:K.

Rather than developing into someone prepared to push Paul LoDuca to the outfield or out of the organization, Ross' regression this year soon should force AAA catching prospect Koyie Hill to the majors. While Ross owns an intriguing .67 G-F, an awful .64 contact rate effectively sabotages his power potential. An unimpressive 3.55 #P/PA can't salvage his production, making Ross someone to deal or cut unless desperate for anyone with quantitative upside.

Milwaukee: Brady Clark, OF
26/110 for .236/.339/.336 with 3 HR, 15 RBI, 13 R, 3/8 SB%,
and a 14:24 BB:K.

After ranking among the best bargains in the league last year, Clark started very slowly this season. Not only isn't Clark demonstrating the impressive speed skills that led to his success in 13 of 15 steal attempts in 2003, his overall power production remains down due to an almost complete lack of doubles. Fortunately, a 4.17 #P/PA, .13 walk rate, and 1.09 G-F suggest significant upside, and as long as a .79 contact rate doesn't cost Clark his roster spot, we should see his averages improve. Now looks like a good time for teams desperate for outfield help to acquire the underrated reserve.

Montreal: Einar Diaz, C
8/39 for .205/.289/.282 with 0 HR, 3 RBI, 3 R, 0/0 SB%,
and a 3:3 BB:K.

Once again I could fill this entire article discuss just Expos' underachievers, but Diaz's struggles particularly surprise me given his excellent .92 contact rate. Unfortunately, career-worst marks of a 3.04 #P/PA and 2.11 G-F demonstrates little patience or power potential. The good news is Diaz owns a .364/.385/.364 this month after failing to hit safely in May, so teams looking for a good gamble at catcher should target Diaz.

New York Mets: Mike Cameron, OF
41/204 for .201/.299/.358 with 7 HR, 20 RBI, 25 R, 10/12 SB%,
and a 25:66 BB:K.

Cameron almost always belongs in the lineup regardless of his offensive performance as his defensive range makes him a wonderful boon to any team's pitching staff, a phenomenon nicely illustrated by the respective changes in the defensive efficiencies of the Mariners and Mets over the last two seasons. Shea Stadium also should have helped Cameron improve his batting average, and with nearly all his skills staying steady, only a drop in contact rate from .74 to .68 explains the BA plummet. Of course, Cameron continues to contribute in all quantitative categories. His average also should increase since after he accumulated an atrocious .62 contact rate in April, he held a .71 last month and owns a .72 mark thus far in June. I see no reason Cameron can't echo his .253/.344/.431 2003 line over the rest of 2004, making now a great time to acquire him.

Philadelphia: Placido Polanco, 2B
35/135 for .259/.327/.370 with 2 HR, 8 RBI, 19 R, 1/2 SB%,
and a 9:9 BB:K.

As he appears completed recovered from a strained left quad that forced him to the DL, Polanco looks like an excellent target for anyone who needs infield help. While he won't hit for much power since his ground-fly ratio jumped from 1.75 to 2.20 G-F, a career-best 3.60 #P/PA and superb .93 contact rate give him significant value at the top of the order for both the Phillies and fantasy teams. Expect his BA to careen towards .300 thanks to this skill development, so although I don't envision him contributing quantitatively to any extent, he again will approach a $20 value for the year thanks to his high average.

Pittsburgh: Randall Simon, 1B
17/75 for .227/.280/.253 with 0 HR, 3 RBI, 5 R, 0/0 SB%,
and a 5:9 BB:K.

Simon's extended struggles should keep him on the bench despite Daryle Ward's slump. A career-best 3.35 #P/PA indicates some development in his patience, however a 2.11 G-F severely limits his upside. With no indication that his playing time or production will increase, shop Simon to injury-depleted teams desperate for healthy hitting help.

San Diego: Sean Burroughs, 3B
76/245 for .310/.347/.376 with 1 HR, 22 RBI, 35 R, 4/6 SB%,
and a 12:24 BB:K.

Anyone analyzing Burroughs must remember that he won't turn 24 until this September. He possesses incredible potential, and since I discount the rumors regarding a trade of Burroughs to the Royals for a three-month rental of Carlos Beltran, don't worry about moving him if your league prohibits crossovers. However, while his .90 contact rate supports this BA increase, his walk rate dropped from .09 to .05, curtailing his usefulness as a leadoff man. A leap from a 1.68 G-F to a 2.56 mark also essentially eliminates his short-term power potential, leaving Burroughs as barely a two-category player even in 5x5 leagues. The combination of his diminishing skills and Petco Park give him little chance to develop into a significant power threat any time soon, so some attempt to shop him appears warranted if you know other owners value him as more than a $15 BA anchor.

San Francisco: Dustan Mohr, OF
16/87 for .184/.351/.322 with 3 HR, 6 RBI, 16 R, 0/0 SB%,
and a 21:17 BB:K.

Mohr remains on the bench despite holding a .400 OBP since April due to Michael Tucker's resurgence in right field. However, Mohr's 3.97 #P/PA and a career-best .80 contact rate should insure he gets a chance to start at some point. Unfortunately, I don't see the necessary opportunity for him this year with San Francisco, so only target Mohr if desperate for a BA boost since his average should keep heading upward.

St. Louis: Reggie Sanders, OF
49/192 for .255/.292/.495 with 11 HR, 30 RBI, 25 R, 11/13 SB%,
and a 10:53 BB:K.

I hoped the 36-year-old Sanders might heads towards another impressive season after he posted 8 HR, 22 RBI, 6 SB, and a .321 BA this April. Apparently I should have discussed him as an overachiever given his 3 HR, 8 RBI, 5 SB, and .204 BA in 108 at-bats over the last six weeks. While a career-best 4.05 #P/PA and promising .92 G-F demonstrates a fundamentally solid skill base, a .72 contact rate indicates he won't help your BA. A severe reverse platoon split also worries me, however I don't see sufficient evidence to warrant recommending you move him now. If anything, talk up his struggles since April in conjunction with his age and history of poor even-numbered seasons as you target him to improve your quantitative stats.

We'll continue tomorrow with American League underachieving pitchers.

Today's Fantasy Rx: Mike Cameron, Luis Castillo, and Ryan Freel all possess the skills to steal two dozen more bases over the balance of the year. NL owners looking to add steals should explore the cost of adding one of these speedsters, especially since I doubt many owners realize that all three rank among the top dozen basestealers in the league. The perceived value of all three players appears far lower than their actual fantasy contribution to date.