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June
14th
2004
Your Daily Fantasy Rx
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2004 Hitting: June AL Underachievers
by Tim Polko

Today's Fantasy Rx

Anaheim: Adam Kennedy, 2B
44/195 for .226/.291/.313 with 3 HR, 20 RBI, 22 R, 7/9 SB%,
and a 13:38 BB:K.

Kennedy finally fixed his platoon split this season. Instead of struggling only against lefties, he now barely owns a .600 OPS against right-handed pitchers as well. Yet his long-term deal keeps him in the lineup near full-time as the Angels hope that the patience indicated by a career-best 3.96 #P/PA will translate into more production at the plate. Of course, a career-worst 1.27 G-F reduces his power potential, which appeared on the upswing after an excellent .66 mark last year. At least he retains solid speed skills, but he never allowed his contact rate to slip below .83 prior to this season's .80. I see little indication of Kennedy significantly contributing in any category save steals. Shop him to see if another owner still values him around $20 and will pay a commensurate amount in trade.


Baltimore: Miguel Tejada, SS
69/233 for .296/.356/.455 with 9 HR, 48 RBI, 30 R, 0/0 SB%,
and a 21:19 BB:K.

Although Tejada appears on target to equal his normal performance, his power potential is down and I see no indication of a pending return to his MVP-level of performance. A career-worst 1.52 G-F and a weak 3.67 #P/PA, Tejada's lowest mark since his 1997 debut, suggest we shouldn't expect more than an .800 OPS from him. His .92 contact rate ranks as the lone bright spot, especially since he previously hadn't exceeded a .90 mark. Wait if you don't mind Tejada only producing a .300/15/80 line over the balance of the year, but I also see no reason not to explore a trade if you know another owner expects him to cruise to $40.


Boston: Kevin Millar, OF/1B
56/210 for .267/.339/.390 with 4 HR, 18 RBI, 23 R, 0/1 SB%,
and a 20:38 BB:K.

The only stats overly out of line with Millar's career progression are his power numbers, and a career-worst 1.03 G-F explains the drop in extra-base hits. His splits remain consistent, albeit almost all down from last year's marks. While I never viewed the 32-year-old as a great fantasy producer, I expect his production to improve, especially since the returns of Nomar and Trot Nixon provide Millar with improved lineup support and allow him more off days. Since he at least should gradually improve over the next few months, Millar looks like a good player to acquire while his value remains somewhat depressed.


Chicago White Sox: Timo Perez, OF
21/83 for .253/.276/.325 with 1 HR, 11 RBI, 8 R, 1/1 SB%,
and a 3:7 BB:K.

I don't know how to treat Perez' 2.10 G-F after remaining between 1.05 and 1.15 for four straight seasons. Although I hope that this trend indicates a desire to take advantage of his respectable speed skills, a career-worst 3.35 G-F leaves him with a terrible .276 OBP, essentially negating his value to the White Sox. He owns a mediocre batting average and remains a reserve most days despite the loss of Magglio Ordonez for several weeks. Since I see little reason to expect an increased level of fantasy production given his mostly awful skills, deal or cut Perez if you see anyone available with more upside even if that player currently seems worse than Perez.


Cleveland: Ben Broussard, 1B
37/153 for .242/.350/.333 with 1 HR, 23 RBI, 15 R, 1/1 SB%,
and a 19:35 BB:K.

Instead of solidifying first base for the Indians, Broussard's regression to his 2002 form makes the 2-7-year-old merely a placeholder until Michael Aubrey reaches the majors. Only the greater struggles of Coco Crisp the recently demoted Alex Escobar kept DH Travis Hafner from shifting to 1B and forcing Broussard to the bench. He must move his .78 contact rate over .80 soon to compensate for his lack of power, yet neither a career-best 3.86 #P/PA nor his 1.22 G-F are awful numbers, so I can't explain the erosion of his power potential. Only teams desperate for any offensive help should target Broussard, however he at least shouldn't hurt you if you add him to your team.


Detroit: Greg Norton, 3B
13/80 for .163/.272/.250 with 2 HR, 2 RBI, 8 R, 0/0 SB%,
and a 12:20 BB:K.

Norton barely deserves a roster spot only one season after ranking as one of baseball's top pinch-hitters. Apparently neither leaving Colorado nor starting occasionally suits Norton as well as batting once a game. The truly bizarre part of his performance is that Norton owns his best all-around skills in several seasons this year. A smart MLB team should try to swipe him from Detroit in a deal for AAA fodder with the expectation that he'd reemerge as an elite pinch-hitter. Unfortunately, fantasy owners still should deal or cut Norton now since he likely instead will remain similarly unproductive in his current role.


Kansas City: Joe Randa, 3B
52/200 for .260/.333/.370 with 2 HR, 19 RBI, 21 R, 0/0 SB%,
and a 20:31 BB:K.

With only a .85 contact rate significantly removed from his career-best levels among his current skill ratios, Randa appears primed to improve soon. Yes, the 34-year-old appears on the down side of his career, but he hasn't failed to reach double-digit homers or 70 RBI since leaving Detroit in 1998. The Royals also soon should trade him to a better team in a friendlier hitters' park, lowering his odds of breaking that streak. Randa isn't a special player, but both his skills and historical performance suggest now is a good time to acquire the third baseman as long as you don't lose players who switch leagues.


Minnesota: Doug Mientkiewicz, 1B
52/207 for .251/.326/.353 with 2 HR, 16 RBI, 24 R, 1/2 SB%,
and a 22:27 BB:K.

No first baseman with a .679 OPS merits regular at-bats, forget about one on a contending team whose presence blocks perhaps the young first baseman in the game. The Twins' decision to give the nearly 30-year-old Mientkiewicz a two-year deal for $7M last winter might cost them the division this year. However, his skills also essentially remain the same as his established marks, so he should start heading toward an .800 OPS in the near future. He still qualifies as no more than a decent corner option who will reach double-digit value with a little luck, but the combination of his awful performance this spring and the desire of most fantasy owners and analysts to search for potential at-bats for Justin Morneau make Mientkiewicz a likely bargain for anyone looking to acquire him.


New York Yankees: Bernie Williams, OF
52/205 for .254/.349/.424 with 8 HR, 20 RBI, 38 R, 0/0 SB%,
and a 28:39 BB:K.

An outstanding performance thus far in June leaves Williams with an OPS nearly identical to last season's .778 mark. While he turned 35 last September and no longer owns any speed, his awful .194/.310/.292 April line appears mostly due to an abbreviated spring training delayed by appendicitis. If Williams stays healthy and even slightly improves his .81 contact rate, I see no reason why he can't reach an .850 OPS or better thanks to a 1.41 G-F that ranks with the best marks of his career. Even valuing him as a $20 player looks like a mistake, however Williams still seems slightly undervalued given his skills, making him a good target for owners trying to win this year.


Oakland: Bobby Kielty, OF
29/128 for .227/.324/.422 with 5 HR, 16 RBI, 19 R, 0/0 SB%,
and a 19:33 BB:K.

The combination of Eric Byrnes' reemergence and Kielty's continued struggles against right-handers force him to the short side of an outfield platoon. While his 4.11 #P/PA and .91 G-F rank as career-best marks, a .75 contact rate likely anchors his average below .250. Of course, even though the 27-year-old simply doesn't merit more playing time given his inconsistent output and questionable skills, he should improve marginally towards the end of the year, so shop Kielty to any owner willing to overpay to replace a recently-injured outfielder like Raul Mondesi.


Seattle: Rich Aurilia, SS
44/190 for .232/.297/.321 with 2 HR, 20 RBI, 21 R, 0/0 SB%,
and a 17:34 BB:K.

SBC Park generally benefits pitchers, but right-handed batters enjoyed a BA park factor of 109 last year while righties in Safeco dealt with a 94 park factor; the different between the two parks accounts for nearly all his 48-point BA decrease. While both parks suppress the power number of right-handed batter significantly, I still see no logical reason for a .123 drop in Aurilia's SLG. Of course, moving to a contender in a friendlier hitters' park could give him a welcome jump start. Unfortunately, Aurilia's generally unimpressive skills, combined with his general decline since 2001, suggest you should wait until he finds a new home before seeking to add him to your team.


Tampa Bay: Geoff Blum, 2B/3B
20/123 for .163/.220/.293 with 2 HR, 3 RBI, 9 R, 2/2 SB%,
and a 9:24 BB:K.

Acquiring Blum remains one of the dumbest moves of last winter, although at least Tampa wisely returned Aubrey Huff to third base rather than ignore Blum's continued ineptitude. Of course, Blum's skills haven't changed; playing in Minute Maid field simply helped camouflage his offensive deficiencies. He owns enough talent to reemerge as a useful player in a limited role, but I see no reason not to deal or cut Blum until Tampa moves him.


Texas: Mark Teixeira, 1B
36/154 for .234/.337/.487 with 9 HR, 24 RBI, 28 R, 3/3 SB%,
and a 20:41 BB:K.

Teixeira posted a .276/.432/.552 in 29 April at-bats, missed the rest of the month with a strained oblique, struggled to a .212/.304/.412 line last month, and currently owns a .273/.304/.614 June line. While bumping his walk rate from .08 to .13 is a welcome sight, only our belief that his nearly across-the-board skill erosion stems from the oblique injury keeps us from worrying. Of course, both his OBP and SLG rank as improvements over his rookie-year marks, and he probably should have spent 2003 at AAA rather than skipping to Texas straight from AA. Given these mitigating factors, we remain convinced that the 24-year-old soon will emerge as an elite power hitter. Now may be your last chance to acquire Teixeira before his owners won't even listen to offers.


Toronto: Eric Hinske, 3B
50/210 for .238/.320/.362 with 6 HR, 30 RBI, 27 R, 6/8 SB%,
and a 27:41 BB:K.

With a career-best .81 contact rate in addition to a 3.90 #P/PA and .90 G-F, Hinske appears nicely positioned to enjoy an excellent second half. Despite continued struggles against southpaws, an impressive performance through two weeks of June gives us hope that he'll exceed $20 as expected, especially since he still owns solid speed skills. While the 26-year-old won't enjoy a career year thanks to his low start, he at least should reach his 2002 stats. Yes, he'll need to hold a .300 BA over the balance of the season to equal his .279 BA that year, however these skills suggest that goal is quite feasible. Try to acquire Hinske now before your competitors realize his great June stats qualify as a trend rather than a short-term burst of production.


We'll continue tomorrow with National League underachieving hitters.


Today's Fantasy Rx: Nothing about their respective current performances particularly intrigues me, but look to add at least one of Millar, Randa, Mientkiewicz, Teixeira, or Hinske to your team. A couple of these guys should be available at nicely discounted prices in most leagues, and since their skills give us no reason not to expect a rebound, buying low on even one of them should give your team a short-term boost.


Click here to read the previous article.

Please e-mail your comments to tim@rotohelp.com.
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