Today's Fantasy Rx

Please refer to the 2004 NL Tout Wars rosters here.

Owner: Nate Silver
Publication: Baseball Prospectus
$ Left: $0.
Split: $152H/$108P = 58/42.
Reserve roster: Edgar Gonzalez, Brandon Duckworth, Andy Marte, Garrett Atkins, Cole Hamels, and Russ Branyan.

Nice pick: Juan Pierre, $37; only an injury will keep Pierre from earning well over $40 again.
Top sleeper: Keith Ginter, $2; a $2 Freddy Sanchez also looks good here as both infielders should start for much of the season.
Potential bust: Damian Jackson, $10; unless he finds unexpected playing time with the Cubs, he might not much time in the majors this year.
Wasted picks (that won't contribute in the majors): Marte and Hamels; the latter is an especially atrocious pick as the odds of him reaching the majors to start over Telemaco, Madson, or even Gavin Floyd appear essentially zero. The Phillies don't even need to place Hamels on their 40-man roster until November of 2005, so I don't care how much most Prospectus writers like Hamels. He will not be in the majors this year, making him a terrible pick here from Silver and in LABR by Jonah Keri.
Early good/bad luck: Jackson earned his release from Colorado and failed to find another big league job. Benji Gil($1) found himself in the same situation. Paul Shuey($1) also doesn't appear likely to return from injury before June, and both Edgar Gonzalez and Russ Branyan received unearned demotions to the minors this spring. At least Terrmel Sledge($9) looks like a regular starter for Montreal.
Trade bait: Saves, saves, and more saves with Dotel($25), Borowski($20), and Hoffman($20 all on this squad.

Drafting four $20 closers is a very unexpected move in 5x5 leagues. Yet, when combined with a starting staff of Woody Williams($10), Jake Peavy($9), Carl Pavano($8), Brian Lawrence($8), and David Wells($7), a 60-point sweep of the pitching categories isn't an impossible goal. Even Duckworth is a nice alternate until Shuey returns.

Of course, Silver also opened the season with no cornerman, middle infielder, or utilityman in the majors. As Craig Counsell($3), Cesar Izturis($2), and Todd Hollandsworth($2) won't contribute much, any success this team finds appear entirely dependent upon the expensive offensive players. A $16 catching combo of Charles Johnson and Brian Schneider helps, but if Pierre, Adam Dunn($27), Brad Wilkerson($22), and Carl Everett($19) perform as expected, a decent finish in the offensive categories is possible. However, if Silver can convert Dunn's hot start into a couple of solid starting position players or another SB stud, he could find the extra 20 points required for a high in-the-money finish.

Summary: With a couple of good in-season moves and healthy seasons from his pitchers, Silver should contend all season even with a currently unimpressive offense.

Owner: Ben Brown
Publication: Roto Radio
$ Left: $0.
Split: $181H/$79P = 70/30.
Reserve roster: Prince Fielder, Shane Reynolds, Sean Burnett, Daryle Ward, Wayne Franklin, and Andy Machado.

Nice pick: Lance Berkman, $32; he shouldn't earn less than this price and could approach $40.
Top sleeper: J.J. Davis, $6; although Davis isn't a great bargain at this cost, all he needs is regular playing time to head towards $20.
Potential bust: Robb Nen, $17; paying more for him than Looper, Chacon, Graves, and Mesa looks like a very bad choice given Nen's continued injury problems.
Wasted picks (that won't contribute in the majors): Fielder, Ward, and Machado.
Early good/bad luck: The health issues of Nen, Nick Johnson($20), Andy Pettitte($15), and Roger Cedeno($2) create a lot of downside. Fortunately, a healthy Griffey($18) could key an intriguing offense
Trade bait: Starting pitching, specifically secondary starters lefties like Leiter($9), Oliver Perez($6), and Horacio Ramirez($4).

With $54 of his players already on the DL, Brown already appears in a tenuous position. His potential for success appears entirely dependent on the production of Berkman, Griffey, Jeff Bagwell($29), and Dave Roberts($22). Unfortunately, I don't see great SB potential barring the development of both Bobby Hill($8) and Cedeno, and the presence of several backups in his starting lineup could hurt his power numbers.

The pitching staff is a bigger problem as the loss of Nen leaves Brown with no relievers, and Pettitte's injury places his qualitative stats in an increasingly precarious place. In the pitching categories, only solid finishes in wins and strikeouts appear assured given the composition of this team.

Summary: With over 20% of Brown's budget injured and little upside among his healthy players, I don't see how this team will break out of the second division.

Owner: Roger Anderson
Publication: Roto Auctioneer
$ Left: $0.
Split: $195H/$65P = 75/25.
Reserve roster: Jason Michaels, Ryan Madsen, Jose Lima, Doug Glanville, Steve Reed, and Jose Castillo.

Nice pick: Jose Mesa, $7; he reached double-digit value even with poor qualitative marks last year, and he could double this price without much difficulty.
Top sleeper: Orber Moreno, $1; every single-digit player on this team is a decent sleeper, but Moreno is the only reliever here that entered spring training as a borderline roster candidate yet opened the season as a logical alternative for saves.
Potential bust: Ramon Hernandez, $11; I don't view him as a great buy in double-digits due to the downside of switching leagues and parks.
Wasted picks (that won't contribute in the majors): None.
Early good/bad luck: Every player on his team opened the year in the majors, and Ryan Freel($12) and Ray Lankford($3) both earned indefinite starting jobs. The only particular bad luck experienced by Anderson is that Marlon Anderson($2) lost the St. Louis second base job to Tony Womack
Trade bait: Five inexpensive middle relievers, Ryan Wagner($6), Jose Valverde($5), Chad Cordero($5), Kyle Farnsworth($1) and Moreno, all could win closer jobs by the second half, giving Anderson an impressive array of young fireballers to exchange for another starter and offensive upgrades.

Anderson added six solid players in the reserve draft, giving him one of the best six-man reserve squads I've seen in several years of monitoring the Tout Wars and LABR drafts. All of his reserves earned opening-day roster slots and should contribute positive value to his team.

Of course, most of his draft is a good blueprint for single-season auction leagues. Albert Pujols($44) and Richie Sexson($32) give him two tremendous power sources, and J.D. Drew($16) and Jay Payton($17) offer significant upside if they each remain healthy. He found at least platoon starters at almost every position, though grabbing Tom Goodwin for $2, especially when combined with Freel, gives him a couple of excellent yet inexpensive steal sources. I expect at least six points from this offense in every category, and if Anderson can flip a closer for another 20 steals, an average of 9 point in all five categories appears reasonable.

His six solid relievers provide an excellent qualitative base for his pitching staff, however Randy Wolf($16), Carlos Zambrano($12), and Russ Ortiz($12) also give him a respectable rotation. If Lima keeps the Dodgers' fifth starter's job, Anderson's pitching point potential will rank with his offensive upside.

Summary: As you likely can tell from my comments above, Anderson looks like the pre-season favorite to win this year due to an excellent combination of value and bargain picks who all possess relatively little downside.

Owner: Peter Kreutzer & Alex Patton
Publication: Roto Touts
$ Left: $0.
Split: $192H/$68P = 74/26.
Reserve roster: Paul Byrd, Luis Martinez, Tony Alvarez, Jeriome Robertson, Dan Haren, and Jon Nunnally.

Nice pick: Bobby Abreu, $35; paying the necessary amount to secure one of the few five-category talents in the game is almost never a bad idea.
Top sleeper: Kris Benson, $4; he still owns the skills necessary to post double-digit value but will need a good deal of defensive support to rebound into an ace.
Potential bust: Mark Prior, $26; even expecting Prior to return by May on his original schedule doesn't warrant a bid much over $20.
Wasted picks (that won't contribute in the majors): Alvarez and Nunnally.
Early good/bad luck: Jae Seo($3), Bubba Trammell($1), and Juan Acevedo($1) all lost their jobs at the end of spring training, though Seo at least appears back in the majors to stay. Of course, Prior's continuing injury saga could leave this team struggling in every pitching category.
Trade bait: Stolen base, thanks to Abreu, Furcal($21), Luis Castillo($24), and Corey Patterson($21).

With Abreu, Furcal, Castillo, Patterson, Shawn Green($30), and Jason Kendall($20), their core offense is solid, albeit mildly overpriced. Unfortunately, with no other certain starters other than Adrian Beltre($17), I expect some quantitative problems, particularly if they don't deal steals for help elsewhere.

Yet offense is not a problem when compared to this pitching staff. Yes, Kerry Wood($26) is a quality ace, and I don't mind Benson, Seo, or Wilson Alvarez($2). The problem is that Prior is out indefinitely and Kirk Rueter($2) and Elmer Dessens($2) are ERA and WHIP killers. Other than a likely solid finish in strikeouts, I don't expect this team to earn more than a few points in any pitching category.

Summary: With an injured Prior, no relievers, and an abundance of steals, only a great sequence of in-season moves will keep Kreutzer and Patton out of the second division.

Owner: John Hoyos
Publication: RotoJunkie.com
$ Left: $0.
Split: $161H/$99P = 62/38.
Reserve roster: Jaret Wright, Mike Koplove, Mike Lincoln, Ismael Valdez, Matt Kata, and David Aardsma.

Nice pick: Eric Gagne, $31; while this appears a little steep under some standards, I still expect Gagne to to clear $40 even in 5x5 leagues.
Top sleeper: David Aardsma, who could earn a significant role in the Giants' pen by the second half.
Potential bust: Matt Morris, $20; he hasn't shown he can remain both healthy and consistently effective in a couple of seasons.
Wasted picks (that won't contribute in the majors): None.
Early good/bad luck: The emergence of Tony Womack($3) in St. Louis provides an intriguing source of steals, and Kit Pellow($2) continues to start for Colorado. Unfortunately, Los Angeles doesn't appear ready to recall Edwin Jackson($8) any time soon.
Trade bait: Power and saves.

While Hoyos didn't roster as much as upside as Anderson, he also compiled an oustanding reserve squad. Despite not overtly addressing his five $1 position players, he grabbed two intriguing fifth starters, as well as two fairly skilled middle relievers and a great sleeper in Aardsma.

Despite the overall depth on this team, I fear he overspent on pitching without acquiring enough quality starting position players. Seven of his position players qualify as no more than part-time players, and the presence of two $31 players and another six players between $20 and $28 makes this team very top-heavy. Although I expect this offense to produce fairly solid overall numbers, a high finish in any quantitative category appears unlikely.

At least Hoyos' pitching staff looks like a strength with a pen of Gagne, Isringhausen($22), Koplove, and Aardsma. Morris and Kip Wells($13) also are a decent starting twosome, and Jason Marquis($2), Doug Davis($1), Paul Wilson($1), Wright, and Valdez each could surprise. Expect possibly double-digit points in saves, as well as respectable marks in most of the other pitching categories.

Summary: I see a lot of potential pitfalls for this squad, however Hoyos' team should finish in the first division and could contend all year.

I'll continue tomorrow with the other four teams and my picks for the top finishers.

Today's Fantasy Rx: Hopefully the other Tout owners will learn the logical lesson from the reserve drafts of Anderson and Hoyos. Both owners grabbed six solid players, all of whom can contribute right now. Pitchers like Lima and Koplove also possess considerable upside. These six-man squads are what all owners should strive to emulate in their reserve rosters.