Today's Fantasy Rx

Ten of last year's thirteen owners returned to NL Tout this season. RotoJunkie's John Hoyos, Baseball HQ's Paul Petera, and Rotoworld's Gregg Rosenthal are the 2004 NL Tout rookies.

Please refer to the 2004 NL Tout Wars rosters here.

Owner: Scott Wilderman & John Muckler
Publication: Roto Times, Hot Sheets, and TQ Stats
$ Left: $0.
Split: $178H/$82P = 68/32.
Reserve roster: Brandon Claussen, Aaron Heilman, Ray King, Wilkin Ruan, Eddie Perez, and Sergio Mitre.

Nice pick: John Thomson, $8; he easily could double this price, especially in a 5x5 league.
Top sleeper: Luis Gonzalez, $1; if the Colorado Rule 5 pick earns more than just a platoon job, his value will skyrocket.
Potential bust: Jose Reyes, $22; he looked risky at this price even before word that his hamstring injury will sideline him indefinitely.
Wasted picks (that won't contribute in the majors): None.
Early good/bad luck: Reyes, Karim Garcia($6), and Casey Fossum($1) all will miss much of this month due to injury, and Claussen and Heilman opened the year at AAA. Only the performances by Gonzalez and Mitre appear wholely unexpected here
Trade bait: Starting pitching, particularly strikeouts, thanks to a staff of Beckett($21), Clemens($12), Willis($12), Thomson, and a few hard-throwing relievers.

While Wilderman and Muckler lack a second closer, Danny Kolb($17) and Luis Vizcanio($3) insure 30+ saves from Milwaukee, and their starting foursome should provide an excellent foundation in the other four pitching categories. If Mitre continues succeeding and Claussen and Heilman return to the majors by mid-season, they'll possess perhaps the strongest group of starters in the league.

Of course, they also failed to find any obvious bargains on offense. Even if Tike Redman($16) helps compensate for the loss of Reyes' steals, the offensive core of Sosa($32), Vidro($25), Kearns($24), and Nevin($20) all appear near or at cost. Spending $28 on Randall Simon, Hammock, Stynes, David Bell, and Todd Greene at corner and catcher also doesn't appear terrible, but I fail to see any significant upside in these players.

Summary: Wilderman and Muckler will succeed or fail almost entirely based on the health of their big league starters and the development schedule of their three reserve starters. I wouldn't rule out a summer of contention if everything breaks right, but a fall to the bottom of the first division by autumn seems slightly more likely.

Owner: Brian Feldman
Publication: The Average Joe
$ Left: $0.
Split: $176H/$84P = 68/32.
Reserve roster: Adam Wainwright, Olmedo Saenz, Noah Lowry, Ramon E. Martinez, Scott Kazmir, and Will Cunnane.

Nice pick: Jeff Weaver, $4; while he could earn anywhere from $25 to $-5, double-digit value appears the probable result.
Top sleeper: Chris Capuano, $1; perhaps a $1 Peter Bergeron offers more upside, but I like Capuano's skills a lot and view him as a great bargain at this price.
Potential bust: Andruw Jones, $30; a $20 Cliff Floyd, $19 Juan Encarnacion, and $19 Steve Finley seem candidate for this title, however the other three at least stand a reasonable chance of reaching $20. Barring significant power, speed, or plate discipline development, Jones will lag in the $20s.
Wasted picks (that won't contribute in the majors): Kazmir.
Early good/bad luck: Floyd's injury, the health issues surrounding a $6 Tony Armas, and the demotion of a $1 Gregg Zaun set a bad tone here. Only the early success of Weaver, Capuano, and a $1 Ryan Vogelsong offers Feldman much hope.
Trade bait: Sleeper starters and five-tool outfielders.

Spending $30 on Billy Wagner and Tim Worrell at least assures a respectable finish in saves, and his pitching staff could be good, but I don't like the composition of this squad. Neither a $21 Kevin Millwood nor a $17 Greg Maddux qualify as obvious bargains, so the cheap starters only compensate for the likely failure of the aces to reach their prices, rather than augmenting a couple of value picks at the head of the rotation.

Unfortunately, while I harbor concerns regarding this pitching staff, Feldman's offense looks like a potential disaster. I don't see a single bargain aside from perhaps Bergeron, and aside from the potentially overpriced outfielders, I question spending $16 on Jason Phillips and $14 on Khalil Greene. Only a $25 Mike Lowell and $17 Jeff Conine seem like decent anchors, and both Marlins play in a pitchers' park and should spend at least one stint on the DL each.

Summary: Despite the promise of the inexpensive starters, an offense filled with inexperienced and injury-prone players will keep Feldman in the second division for the majority of the season.

Owner: Rob Leibowitz
Publication: Masters of Fantasy Baseball
$ Left: $0.
Split: $225H/$35P = 87/13.
Reserve roster: Merkin Valdez, J.J. Hardy, John Van Benschoten, Jimmy Haynes, Joel Hanrahan, and Taylor Buchholz.

Nice pick: Scott Podsednik, $25; he earned $40 last year and already ranks among the most valuable fantasy players this season.
Top sleeper: Darren Dreifort, $1; I expect him to approach double-digit value as he joins Gagne and Mota to give LA a truly dominant late-inning trio.
Potential bust: Orlando Cabrera, $33; while I like Cabrera as much as anyone, this price looks like the very top of his upside. Any problems at all will send his value falling under $30.
Wasted picks (that won't contribute in the majors): None.
Early good/bad luck: Mike Remlinger($1), Sterling Hitchcock($1), and Rick Reed($1) won't be pitching any time soon and Steve Sparks($1) probably shouldn't see any more time on this roster. None of the youngsters managed to break camp in the majors, and with Larry Walker($16) on the DL indefinitely, this offense looks surprisingly vulnerable
Trade bait: Batting average and speed, including Cabrera, Podsednik, and Durham($19).

Spending 90% of his budget on offense should have purchased Leibowitz a stronger team as Carlos Baerga($1) and Tim Hummel($1) leave him with no viable third baseman. Of course, we agree with buying Helton($38) and Cabrera at cost, and his outfield, which features a $23 Luis Gonzalez, $19 Moises Alou, and $12 Danny Bautista, in addition to Podsednik and Walker, could be outstanding. Yet I don't see this group posting lofty power totals, so he'll need to convert one of his speedsters into a 100 RBI guy.

Liebowitz's pitching staff is more complicated, however paying $19 for Brandon Webb and $9 for Adam Eaton gives him a respectable base of talent. Unfortunately, only Chris Carpenter($1), Josh Fogg($1), Sparks, Dreifort, and Haynes opened the year in the majors, and aside from Drefort and perhaps Carpenter, this group could post gruesome qualitative marks. I expect him to spend most of the year searching for more decent starters. Punting saves wasn't a bad move, but gambling on Fogg and Sparks when pitchers like Sergio Mitre, Jose Lima, Mike Koplove, Rheal Cormier, and Darren Oliver slipped to the reserve rounds seems an unwise gambit at best.

Summary: Normally I love unconventional strategies that heavily favor hitting, however Liebowitz didn't established the quantitative supremacy I wanted to see for $225. While strong finishes in wins and strikeouts should keep him in the money, I don't envision this team winning it all.

Owner: Gregg Rosenthal
Publication: All-Star Stats & Rotoworld
$ Left: $0.
Split: $163H/$97P = 63/37.
Reserve roster: Scott Hairston, Scott Erickson, Abraham Nunez, Mike Stanton, Bo Hart, and Jorge de la Rosa.

Nice pick: Guillermo Mota, $2; considering he easily earned double-digit value last year while posting great skills, two bucks is great investment. Only the uncertainty regarding the long-term role of a $6 Rocky Biddle kept me from choosing him.
Top sleeper: Abraham Nunez, R; any injury in the Marlins' outfield should open full-time at-bats for the spring training star.
Potential bust: Junior Spivey, $18; he barely approached this level when earned an All-Star berth, and I don't see him finishing much past $10 even if he spends a few months in the Bronx or Colorado.
Wasted picks (that won't contribute in the majors): Scott Hairston.
Early good/bad luck: While Jason Schmidt($20) missed Opening Day, he should stay healthy most of the season. The surprise release of Gary Matthews($1) costs Rosenthal a dozen steals, and the early questions surrounding Morgan Ensberg($22) and Tony Batista($13) grow increasingly worrisome. At least Mike Piazza($23) started off strong before his collision at first base.
Trade bait: Shopping either Schmidt or Randy($25), in addition to Smoltz($25) or Biddle, looks like a good move to improve an unimpressive offense.

While Rosenthal acquired a respectable group of starting infielders, Jim Edmonds($25) and Pat Burrell($20) highlight a quantitatively-deficient outfield that includes Kerry Robinson($4), Ricky Ledee($1), and Nunez. If Ensberg and Spivey lose playing time, this team may not finish with more than a few points in any batting category save perhaps batting average.

His pitching staff is his strength, and the combination of Randy, Smoltz, and Schmidt could be dominant. However, all three pitchers seem likely to miss some time, and Matt Clement($11) and Zach Day($2) don't provide great starting depth. The good news is that Brad Lidge($3), Chris Reitsma($2), and Mota provide an excellent qualitative base, giving me hope this team will contend.

Summary: A skilled and relatively inexpensive group of pitchers could carry Rosenthal well into the first division, but only a couple of aggressive moves to improve this offense will insure an in-the-money finish.

I'll continue tomorrow with analysis of five more teams.

Today's Fantasy Rx: The importation of questionable veterans into the Rockies' starting lineup will create a surprising wealth of playing time for the Colorado back-ups. Todd Greene, Kit Pellow, Luis Gonzalez, Mark Sweeney, and Rene Reyes all could find a couple hundred at-bats this season, making any of them an intriguing pickup for teams looking for an offensive boost early in the year.