Today's Fantasy Rx

Every year a couple dozen players receive at least a brief look in the majors almost solely due to their place on a major league 40-man roster. Unfortunately, other than top prospects and Rule 5 picks, we generally spend little time examining any players who spent all of the previous season playing below AA. Reviewing the impressive number of youngsters who rather unexpectedly reach majors each year convinced us that these players deserve more attention, so I will elaborate on the fantasy prospects of many of these players over the next few days.

While I recognize I can't provide a complete list of players likely to contribute due to the frequent changes on many 40-man rosters, not to mention the extreme uncertainty regarding in-season roster management on each team, hopefully these snapshots will provide you with another look at many largely unknown players.

Arizona Diamondbacks
Position Players:
Jerry Gil, 21, SS; B:R, T:R.
111/429 for .259/.275/.352 with 4 HR, 58 HR, 52 R, 19/29 SB%,
and a 10:90 BB:K for A South Bend(Mid).
Appropriate 2004 Role: A/A+ starter.
Long-term Upside & ETA: AAA backup by 2007.
2004 Fantasy Potential: None.
Long-term Fantasy Upside & ETA: None.

Perhaps Jerry Colangelo simply hates Notre Dame fans and wanted to inflict Gil on South Bend a second time. Gil showed negligible improvement since his last tour in the Midwest League two years ago, and since he committed 32 errors in 115 games, he doesn't appear likely to see any time in the majors this decade. At this time he probably ranks with the worst players on a 40-man roster and will need to demonstrate shocking development in the near future to reestablished himself as a prospect.

Pitchers:
None.

Colorado Rockies
Position Players:
Jeff Baker, 22, 3B; B:R, T:R.
76/263 for .289/.377/.479 with 11 HR, 44 RBI, 44 R, 4/6 SB%,
and a 30:79 BB:K for A Asheville(SAL).
Appropriate 2004 Role: A+ starter.
Long-term Upside & ETA: Major league starter by 2007.
2004 Fantasy Potential: None.
Long-term Fantasy Upside & ETA: $20 by 2009.

Only the major league contract Baker signed after the Rockies selected him in the fourth round of the 2002 draft keeps him on the 40-man roster right now. However, despite two wrist surgeries, he posted a strong performance and should merit a major league job by the time his options run out in 2006. Of course, 2003 1st round pick Ian Stewart could push Baker off third base, and with Jayson Nix at second base and several promising young outfielders in the system, Baker never may win a starting job with the Rockies, making him a poor fantasy pick this spring.

Tony Miller, 23, OF; B:R, T:R.
66/266 for .248/.349/.383 with 4 HR, 31 RBI, 47 R, 11/18 SB%,
and a 40:58 BB:K for A+ Visalia(Cal).
Appropriate 2004 Role: AA starter.
Long-term Upside & ETA: Major league starter by 2007.
2004 Fantasy Potential: None.
Long-term Fantasy Upside & ETA: $15 by 2009.

If he avoids injury and maintains good plate discipline, the former football player could move through the Colorado system rather quickly. Unfortunately, unless his strikeout fall or his power increases, he may not possess enough offensive skills to take advantage of his speed skills. Miller won't be a viable fantasy pick until he separates himself from other Rockies' outfield prospects like Cory Sullivan and Jeff Salazar.

Pitchers:
None.

Los Angeles Dodgers
Position Players:
Willy Aybar, 21, 3B; B:S, T:R.
122/445 for .274/.336/.427 with 11 HR, 74 RBI, 47 R, 9/18 SB%,
and a 41:70 BB:K for A+ Vero Beach(FSL).
Appropriate 2004 Role: AA starter.
Long-term Upside & ETA: Major league starter by 2006.
2004 Fantasy Potential: None.
Long-term Fantasy Upside & ETA: $20 by 200.

Visa problems caused Aybar to miss spring training and he then seemed to rush through the season, displaying more power and increasing his average by nearly sixty points, but his OBP still dropped thanks to much worse plate discipline. While he still ranks among the Dodgers' most patient prospects and that should insure his future in the organization given the new management, we need to see if Aybar can combine power and plate discipline as he moves to AA before we can recommend him. Of course, if he manages that feat, he'll rank among the best infield prospects in the game, so keep an eye on him this season.

Pitchers:
None.

San Diego Padres
Position Players:
None.

Pitchers:
Akinori Otsuka, 32, P:R, B:R.
1-3 and 17 Saves on a 56:5 K:BB in 43 IP over 51 G
with 31 H, 4 HR, and a 2.09 ERA for Chunichi(Japan).
Appropriate 2004 Role: Major league middle reliever.
Long-term Upside & ETA: Major league closer by 2006.
2004 Fantasy Potential: $10.
Long-term Fantasy Upside & ETA: $25 by 2007.

Given Otsuka heads to a likely favorable pitchers' park and will pitch mostly in somewhat low-pressure middle relief innings, I expect him to emerge as one of the great fantasy bargains of the year. Both scouts and analysts expect him to emerge as a closer in the relatively near future, making him a particularly good buy in keeper leagues. As long as San Diego keeps him under 60 innings, I see no reason why he won't clear at least $5 with no problem at all. Since I doubt he'll cost that much in most leagues with two established closers like to grab most of the Padres' save opportunities, Otsuka looks like an excellent target in almost any league.

San Francisco Giants
Position Players:
Angel Chavez, 22, SS; B:R, T:R.
134/478 for .280/.314/.416 with 10 HR, 58 RBI, 69 R, 20/31 SB%,
with 22:60 BB:K for A+ San Jose(Cal).
Appropriate 2004 Role: AA starter.
Long-term Upside & ETA: Major league backup by 2007.
2004 Fantasy Potential: None.
Long-term Fantasy Upside & ETA: $10 by 2010.

The Giants converted Chavez from third base to shortstop in his third season in the California League, and he possesses enough overall offensive potential to develop into a quality major leaguer. However, I see no immediate upside in drafting him since we don't know how Chavez will adapt to AA, making him a poor fantasy selection at this time.

Justin Knoedler, 23, C; B:R, T:R.
91/354 for .257/.326/.424 with 10 HR, 43 RBI, 48 R, 13/16 SB%,
and a 35:78 BB:K for A+ San Jose(Cal).
Appropriate 2004 Role: AA starter.
Long-term Upside & ETA: Major league starter by 2007.
2004 Fantasy Potential: None.
Long-term Fantasy Upside & ETA: $10 by 2009.

After posting a 38:9 K:BB in 29 IP as a reliever in the Northwest League in 2001, San Francisco shifted him back behind the plate in 2002, and Knoedler now ranks as perhaps the Giants' best catching prospect. He possesses a potentially dynamic arm and a smart team probably would develop him as both a reliever and a catcher, however he still could reach double-digit roto value behind the plate. Unfortunately, although Knoedler could continue impressing at AA, A.J. Pierzynski should hold San Francisco's catching job indefinitely, leaving you no reason to draft any Giants' catching prospect this spring.

Pitchers:
None.

Today's Fantasy Rx: I've seen some stunningly impressive projections for Otsuka that compare him favorably with the best closers of the last two decades. Given his miniscule WHIP in Japan, I don't believe such forecasts are unrealistic. He easily should finish among the top dozen middle relievers in fantasy games and could reach double-digit roto value. Exercise some caution in leagues with restrictive transaction policies, but any league in which you can reserve him at your leisure, spend an extra couple bucks to nab Otsuka and you should be pleased with the results.