Today's Fantasy Rx

Every year a couple dozen players receive at least a brief look in the majors almost solely due to their place on a major league 40-man roster. Unfortunately, other than top prospects and Rule 5 picks, we generally spend little time examining any players who spent all of the previous season playing below AA. Reviewing the impressive number of youngsters who rather unexpectedly reach majors each year convinced us that these players deserve more attention, so I will elaborate on the fantasy prospects of many of these players over the next few days.

While I recognize I can't provide a complete list of players likely to contribute due to the frequent changes on many 40-man rosters, not to mention the extreme uncertainty regarding in-season roster management on each team, hopefully these snapshots will provide you with another look at many largely unknown players.

Chicago Cubs
Position Players:
Ronny Cedeno, 21, ; B:R, T:R.
80/380 for .211/.257/.295 with 4 HR, 36 RBI, 43 R, 19/25 SB%,
and a 21:82 BB:K for A+ Daytona(FSL).
Appropriate 2004 Role: A+ starter.
Long-term Upside & ETA: AAAA backup by 2007.
2004 Fantasy Potential: None.
Long-term Fantasy Upside & ETA: None.

While the Cubs smartly dumped Nate Frese off the 40-man roster, adding another solid defensive shortstop who absolutely can't hit makes no sense. The odds of Cedeno developing into a decent contributor even in a reserve role seem small, and considering he offers virtually no offensive upside, do not draft him.

Pitchers:
Renyel Pinto, 21, P:L, B:L.
3-8 on a 104:45 K:BB in 114.2 IP over 19 GS(2G)
with 91 H, 4 HR, and a 3.22 ERA for A+ Daytona(FSL).
Appropriate 2004 Role: AA starter.
Long-term Upside & ETA: #3 starter by 2008.
2004 Fantasy Potential: None.
Long-term Fantasy Upside & ETA: $15 by 2010.

The Cubs' impressive cache of left-handed pitching prospects likely will push Pinto to the bullpen or another organization, but he owns both the dominance and control necessary to develop into an effective starter in the majors. While he likely needs at least another two years of development time, like so many of his teammates, Pinto should begin contributing within the relatively near future. Despite Pinto's solid upside, you also obviously can't draft him now since we have no idea when or where he'll debut in the majors.

Carlos Vasquez, 21, P:L, B:L.
10-13 on an 87:47 K:BB in 137.1 IP over 23 GS(24G)
with 136 H, 5 HR, and a 3.74 ERA for A+ Daytona(FSL).
Appropriate 2004 Role: AA starter.
Long-term Upside & ETA: #4 starter by 2007.
2004 Fantasy Potential: None.
Long-term Fantasy Upside & ETA: $10 by 2009.

Perhaps the most surprising addition to the Cubs' 40-man roster, Vasquez nevertheless owns fairly promising skills and could advance quickly. However, unless his strikeout rate heads upward, I expect he'll head to the bullpen within the next two years, making him a poor choice in any fantasy league.

Cincinnati Reds
Position Players:
William Bergolla, 21, 2B; B:R, T:R.
142/523 for .272/.309/.342 with 2 HR, 31 RBI, 77 R, 52/70 SB%,
and a 29:59 BB:K for A+ Potomac(Car).
Appropriate 2004 Role: AA starter.
Long-term Upside & ETA: Major league starter by 2007.
2004 Fantasy Potential: None.
Long-term Fantasy Upside & ETA: $20 by 2010.

Bergolla's weak plate discipline, negligible power, and the Reds' respectable infield depth kept me from recommending him in the fall, but despite his impressive speed, he doesn't belong on fantasy teams quite yet. Bergolla likely needs two more years in the minors, and Cincinnati also doesn't need to rush him. Wait until he at least echoes these numbers at AA Chattanooga before rostering him.

Pitchers:
Phil Dumatrait, 22, P:L, B:R.
4-1 on a 32:14 K:BB in 37.2 IP over 7 GS
with 36 H, 2 HR, and a 3.35 ERA for A+ Potomac(Car).
7-5 on a 74:59 K:BB in 104.1 IP over 20 GS(21G)
with 74 H, 4 HR, and a 3.02 ERA for A+ Sarasota(FSL).
Appropriate 2004 Role: A+/AA starter.
Long-term Upside & ETA: #3 starter by 2008.
2004 Fantasy Potential: None.
Long-term Fantasy Upside & ETA: $15 by 2011.

Dealt from Boston to Cincinnati with Tyler Pelland for Scott Williamson, Dumatrait offers intriguing upside thanks to his left-handed dominance. Unfortunately, his weak control over parts of three seasons of A-ball makes him a questionable prospect, and he merits no fantasy consideration until he at least posts similar stats in the upper minors for a year or two.

Houston Astros
Position Players:
Hector Gimenez, 21, C; B:S, T:R.
94/381 for .247/.304/.352 with 7 HR, 54 RBI, 41 R, 2/2 SB%,
and a 29:75 BB:K for A+ Salem(Car).
Appropriate 2004 Role: A+/AA starter.
Long-term Upside & ETA: Major league backup by 2007.
2004 Fantasy Potential: None.
Long-term Fantasy Upside & ETA: $10 by 2010.

Gimenez appears somewhat overrated as a prospect right now considering his mediocre batting performance, but any switch-hitting catcher with great defensive gifts deserves some attention. Of course, with John Buck ahead of him in almost every respect, Gimenez shouldn't reach the majors sooner than the end of 2005, making him a poor roto selection right now.

Charlton Jimerson, 24, OF; B:R, T:R.
89/336 for .265/.317/.446 with 12 HR, 55 RBI, 53 R, 27/31 SB%,
and a 25:109 BB:K for A+ Salem(Car).
Appropriate 2004 Role: A+/AA starter.
Long-term Upside & ETA: AAAA starter by 2007.
2004 Fantasy Potential: None.
Long-term Fantasy Upside & ETA: $10 by 2009.

While Houston's talent for developing solid reserve outfielders is impressive, waiving Henri Stanley and Colin Porter to make room on the 40-man roster for Jimerson was a highly questionable move. Only Jimerson's speed suggests much upside as his age and troubling strikeout totals depict a player more likely to spend his career in the minors than develop in to a star. Avoid him in every draft.

Pitchers:
Ezequiel Astacio, 24, P:R, B:R.
15-5 on 83:29 K:BB in 147.2 IP over 22 GS(25G)
with 140 H, 9 HR, and a 3.29 ERA for A+ Clearwater(FSL).
Appropriate 2004 Role: AA starter.
Long-term Upside & ETA: #4 starter by 2007.
2004 Fantasy Potential: None.
Long-term Fantasy Upside & ETA: $10 by 2009.

I didn't review Astacio in the fall since I didn't believe his inclusion in the Billy Wagner trade eased his path to the majors. He still faces significant competition for advancement within the Houston system, and control artists who first reach AA at age 24 often have struggled in the past. As he lacks obvious dominance and a clear path to the majors, Astacio belongs on no fantasy rosters at this time.

Jimmy Barrett, 22, P:R, B:R.
7-10 on a 75:56 K:BB in 138.1 IP over 26 GS
with 160 H, 13 HR, and a 5.33 ERA for A+ Salem(Car).
Appropriate 2004 Role: A+ starter.
Long-term Upside & ETA: AAAA swingman by 2009.
2004 Fantasy Potential: None.
Long-term Fantasy Upside & ETA: Roster filler by 2010.

I definitely don't recommend drafting Ezequiel Astacio this spring, but Astacio looks like a future Cy Young winner compared to Barrett, who's managed only one promising performance in three seasons of A-ball. He possesses little control or dominance, and the Astros missed a great opportunity to remove him from the 40-man roster in the first half of 2003. Barrett probably will return to A-ball yet again, making him a terrible fantasy pick in any league.

Fernando Nieve, 21, P:R, B:R.
14-9 on a 144:65 K:BB in 150.1 IP over 28 GS
with 133 H, 10 HR, and a 3.65 ERA for A Lexington(SAL).
Appropriate 2004 Role: A+ starter.
Long-term Upside & ETA: #3 starter by 2008.
2004 Fantasy Potential: None.
Long-term Fantasy Upside & ETA: $20 by 2010.

Of course, the Astros do possess some projectable starters, such as Nieve, who looks like a potential ace. Unfortunately, his somewhat slow climb through the system suggests he'll plateau as an innings eater rather than a star, but he at least should give Houston good trade bait. Since we have no idea if he'll reach the majors in an Astros' uniform, don't draft Nieve at this time.

Milwaukee Brewers
Position Players:
None.

Pitchers:
Tim Bausher, 24, P:R, B:R.
1-2 and 3 Saves on a 39:12 K:BB in 27 IP over 19 G
with 19 H, 3 HR, and a 3.33 ERA for A Beloit(Mid). Appropriate 2004 Role: A+/AA reliever.
Long-term Upside & ETA: Major league middle reliever by 2007.
2004 Fantasy Potential: None.
Long-term Fantasy Upside & ETA: $10 by 2009.

With only parts of two professional seasons under his belt, projecting Bausher as anything more than bullpen fodder is a mistake. Yet he obviously dominated with Midwest League last year, and a 1.98 ERA on a 14:3 K:BB in 13.2 IP in the Arizona Fall League secured a 40-man roster spot for him. Bausher isn't draftable now, but he could emerge as one of the Brewers' best bullpen prospects by the end of 2004.

Chris Saenz, 22, P:R, B:R.
0-0 on a 6:3 K:BB in 6 IP over 1 G
with 4 H, 0 HR, and a 1.50 ERA for AA Huntsville(SL).
9-9 on a 136:56 K:BB in 128 IP over 26 GS
with 121 H, 20 HR, and a 5.20 ERA for A+ High Desert(Cal).
Appropriate 2004 Role: AA starter.
Long-term Upside & ETA: Major league closer by 2008.
2004 Fantasy Potential: None.
Long-term Fantasy Upside & ETA: $20 by 2010.

Milwaukee moved Saenz into the rotation this year while promoting him from the Midwest League, and if we attribute his homer rate to playing in one of the minors' worst pitchers' parks, his skills look rather respectable. While his fantastic strikeout rate indicates a pitcher with potential to remain effective in the upper minors, an elevated walk rate also suggests an eventual shift back to relief work. Since we don't know his future role, selecting him is a bad idea, but Saenz looks like a solid sleeper for the Brewers.

Dennis Sarfate, 22, P:R, B:R.
12-2 on a 140:66 K:BB in 139.2 IP over 26 GS
with 114 H, 11 HR, and a 2.84 ERA for A Beloit(Mid).
Appropriate 2004 Role: A+/AA starter.
Long-term Upside & ETA: #3 starter by 2008.
2004 Fantasy Potential: None.
Long-term Fantasy Upside & ETA: $20 by 2010.

Aside from a weak walk rate, Sarfate's improvement this season places him among the top starting prospects in a largely unimpressive cadre of young Milwaukee pitchers. He could move quickly through the system, yet until he at least echoes these stats in the upper minors, Sarfate won't merit roto consideration.

Pittsburgh Pirates
Position Players:
None.

Pitchers:
Bobby Bradley, 23, P:R, B:R.
3-2 on a 36:28 K:BB in 50.1 IP over 12 GS
with 43 H, 1 HR, and a 3.40 ERA for A+ Lynchburg(Car).
0-0 on a 4:1 K:BB in 3 IP over 1 GS
with 1 H, 0 HR, and a 0.00 ERA for R Pirates(GCL).
Appropriate 2004 Role: A+/AA starter.
Long-term Upside & ETA: #3 starter by 2008.
2004 Fantasy Potential: None.
Long-term Fantasy Upside & ETA: $20 by 2010.

Although Bradley, the 8th player chosen in the 1999 draft, now ranks as an obvious sleeper, two elbow operations and shoulder surgery over the last few seasons leave him with little immediate upside. He likely will spend 2004 rediscovering his promise from 2000 prior to his injuries, so selecting him in a fantasy league now ranks as an extremely questionable gamble.

St. Louis Cardinals
Position Players:
Steve Cox, 29, 1B; B:L, T:L.
10/50 for .200/.298/.280 with 1 HR, 7 RBI, 5 R, 0/0 SB%,
and a 7:17 BB:K for Yokohama(Japan).
Appropriate 2004 Role: AAAA starter.
Long-term Upside & ETA: Major league starter by 2005.
2004 Fantasy Potential: $5.
Long-term Fantasy Upside & ETA: $15 by 2006.

While Cox hasn't fulfilled the promise he displayed in the upper minors during the mid-90s, and his 2003 constitute an almost complete disaster, he still could develop into a decent hitter. Knee problems cost him most of last season, but since he should be completely recovered now, he could contribute to the Cardinals, possibly as a starting first baseman or even an outfielder. Unfortunately, I can't recommend taking a chance on him quiet yet given his steadily declining production, however I like Cox's fantasy potential a lot more than someone like Ray Lankford, who didn't play last year and isn't in his peak years. Although Cox is too risky to select in most drafts, he could emerge as a solid free agent pickup early in the season.

Pitchers:
None.

Today's Fantasy Rx: The one player listed above with significant immediate potential is Steve Cox, who remains in the running for a starting job in the Cardinals' lineup. Given the impressive wealth of pitching talent in the upper levels of the minors throughout both leagues, none of these pitching prospects merit more than a brief glance this spring, and I also don't expect the hitting prospects to contribute sooner than 2005.