Today's Fantasy Rx

American League Starting Pitchers with $5 to $9 PDV

Quick Key to the tables:
W = Wins.  S = Saves.  ERA = Earned Run Average (ER*9/IP).
WHIP = (Walks + Hits)/IP aka Ratio.  K = Strikeouts.  BB = Bases on Balls aka Walks.
H = Hits.  IP = Innings Pitched.  P = Pitches.  B = Bats.
2003 Age = Player's Age as of October 1, 2003.
4x4 = BA, HR, RBI, and SB in 12-team, $260 leagues with 23-man rosters.
5x5 = BA, HR, RBI, SB, and R in 12-team, $260 leagues with 23-man rosters.
DV = Draft Value (The price a player earned under a 70/30 hitting/pitching split).
AV = Actual Value (The price a player earned under a 50/50 hitting/pitching split).
Rotohelp = 2003 Rotohelp Predicted Draft Value.
LABR/Tout = 2003 Expert League prices; LABR for 4x4. Tout Wars for 5x5.

Average league worst BA, ERA, and WHIP based on data compiled from TQ Stats.

Players are ranked in order from the highest draft value in a 4x4 league to the lowest. As the majority of fantasy leagues allow you to keep anyone traded to the other league, all players are listed in the league where they began the season.

21.		W	S	ERA	WHIP	K	BB	H	IP
Mark Buehrle		14	0	4.14	1.35	119	61	250	230.1
CH White Sox		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
P:L    B:L	4x4:	9		16		15		19
2003 Age: 24	5x5:	10		17		15		17

Buehrle's rejection of a long-term deal last off-season led to significant criticism when he struggled through May. Of course, he then posted an ERA under 3.85 in three of the last four months of the year, and while his skills generally slipped slightly, his high ERA for he season appears due to bad luck and inconsistent defensive support. His new long-term deal keeps him secure as perhaps the most prominent member of Chicago's rotation for the next few years. If he avoids a DL trip, which appears quite likely given his 742 major league innings before his 25th birthday, he should remain one of the league's best pitchers. With speedy youngsters now in centerfield and at second base for the White Sox, I also expect his hit rate to drop under 9.0, leading to another sub-4.00 ERA and sub-1.25 WHIP. Like C.C. Sabathia, Buehrle merits a double-digit bid if you don't mind an elevated injury risk.

50 Days to Choose Your Pitchers: '04 continues tomorrow with more American League starters.

Today's Fantasy Rx: Only two of the eighteen AL starters who cost from $4 to $9 in spring drafts earned a similar amount. Half of the remaining sixteen cost $10 or more while the other eight cost less than $4. So while we certainly advise targeting starters in this price range, you should target those players with solid skills you expect to earn double-digits. Spending $4-7 on someone you expect to earn $6-9 appears to a bad gable.