Today's Fantasy Rx

Like previous years, we'll use a simple formula to separate starters from relievers to make these reviews easier to use. If a pitcher appeared in the majors and started in half or more of his big league appearances, he's listed as a starter; everyone else will be left in the roto bullpen. The same general premise will be used to divide minor leaguers, so if a pitcher's total games started between all minor league levels total at least half of all his appearances, he'll be listed with starter prospects for simplicity. Since most pitchers will shift between starting and relieving at least once, this delineation is intended to simplify grouping of pitchers rather than as an objective evaluation of their skills. All such comments will remain in the reviews.

American League Starting Pitchers with Double-digit PDV

Quick Key to the tables:
W = Wins.  S = Saves.  ERA = Earned Run Average (ER*9/IP).
WHIP = (Walks + Hits)/IP aka Ratio.  K = Strikeouts.  BB = Bases on Balls aka Walks.
H = Hits.  IP = Innings Pitched.  P = Pitches.  B = Bats.
2003 Age = Player's Age as of October 1, 2003.
4x4 = BA, HR, RBI, and SB in 12-team, $260 leagues with 23-man rosters.
5x5 = BA, HR, RBI, SB, and R in 12-team, $260 leagues with 23-man rosters.
DV = Draft Value (The price a player earned under a 70/30 hitting/pitching split).
AV = Actual Value (The price a player earned under a 50/50 hitting/pitching split).
Rotohelp = 2003 Rotohelp Predicted Draft Value.
LABR/Tout = 2003 Expert League prices; LABR for 4x4. Tout Wars for 5x5.

Average league worst BA, ERA, and WHIP based on data compiled from TQ Stats.

Players are ranked in order from the highest draft value in a 4x4 league to the lowest. As the majority of fantasy leagues allow you to keep anyone traded to the other league, all players are listed in the league where they began the season.

1.		W	S	ERA	WHIP	K	BB	H	IP
Roy Halladay		22	0	3.25	1.07	204	32	253	266
TOR Blue Jays		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
P:R    B:R	4x4:	26		44		22		24
2003 Age: 26	5x5:	26		45		23		26

The 2004 AL Cy Young winner dominated opponents for most of the season as he finished first in the league in wins, innings, and complete games, second in WHIP, third in strikeouts, and fifth in ERA. His 13.6 #P/IP rank him with Greg Maddux as the most efficient starters in the majors, and a 6.4 K:BB clearly establishes Halladay as perennial Cy contender. One interesting incongruity here is a 2.70 G-F, which suggests a homer rate jump from .4 to .9 HR/9 is a fluke. If that number even dips to .65, we should see his ERA fall below 3.00 as he approaches $50 AV. Given Halladay's stamina, skills, and the support he'll receive for Toronto's offense, stopping bidding below $30 is a mistake, especially since I expect he'll head to $35 or more in many leagues. Even if you can't roster him on draft day, consider a mid-season trade if you need starting pitching since his second half stats regularly exceed his first half performance.

2.		W	S	ERA	WHIP	K	BB	H	IP
Tim Hudson		16	0	2.70	1.08	162	61	197	240
OAK Athletics		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
P:R    B:R	4x4:	24		41		17		23
2003 Age: 28	5x5:	23		40		18		23

Even Mike Mussina no longer appears as consistently solid as Hudson. If not for a bullpen that seemingly failed whenever Hudson started, losing several starts that Hudson departed with the lead, he would have won over 20 games. Oakland's unimpressive offense also provided Hudson with .4 less runs per game than Roy Halladay received, so Hudson merited serious Cy Young consideration. Of course, he also earned nearly as much roto value, and his strikeout rate even rebounded following a four-season decline. With all his skills either holding steady or improving, I see no reason Hudson shouldn't continue reaching $25-30 DV as long as he remains with the Athletics.

3.		W	S	ERA	WHIP	K	BB	H	IP
Esteban Loaiza		21	0	2.90	1.11	207	56	196	226.1
CH White Sox		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
P:R    B:R	4x4:	23		39		8
2003 Age: 31	5x5:	23		41		9		1

After several seasons of mediocrity punctuated by an occasionally promising performance, such as 1997 with Pittsburgh and the second half of 2000 with Toronto, Loaiza finally harnessed his potential and nearly won the Al Cy Young until some September struggles. While his 2.2 BB/9 wasn't overly superior to his control in previous years, a career-best 8.2 K/9 represents a significant jump in his dominance, allowing him to lead the league in strikeouts. Expecting a repeat of this performance is a definite mistake given his career path, however the improvement in his repertoire should enable Loaiza to post a roughly comparable season, albeit not one worth more than $15 at most spring drafts.

4.		W	S	ERA	WHIP	K	BB	H	IP
Pedro Martinez		14	0	2.22	1.04	206	47	147	186.2
BOS Red Sox		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
P:R    B:R	4x4:	21		36		27		37
2003 Age: 31	5x5:	22		38		29		40

Leading the AL in ERA, WHIP, and OBA again places Pedro in very select company. Unfortunately, his failure to reach 200 innings for the third straight season, or even to make 30 starts, leaves him with too few innings to equal the qualitative contribution of Roy Halladay or Tim Hudson. Minor erosion in his dominance, control, and even his ground-fly rate leaves him vulnerable to his worst ERA in years, particularly if Boston's defense doesn't improve. Of course, Pedro remains quite capable of winning 20 games with a 2.00 ERA and 250 strikeouts, so we'll see bids anywhere from $20 to $40. We advise holding towards the low end of that range due to his reduced stamina, but if you want to target one of the highest-risk, highest-reward players in baseball, we also understand the justification for pushing above $30 to secure one of the few undisputed AL aces.

5.		W	S	ERA	WHIP	K	BB	H	IP
Mike Mussina		17	0	3.40	1.08	195	40	192	214.2
NY Yankees		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
P:R    B:L	4x4:	19		33		20		25
2003 Age: 34	5x5:	20		35		21		27

Despite five All-Star games, six Gold Gloves, and eight top-6 finishes in the Cy Young balloting, Mussina appears likely to end his career as one of the best pitchers who won't belong in the Hall of Fame unless he maintains his current performances into his 40s. He never has won twenty games in a season and also owns no World Series rings, and even though we expected him to compile one outstanding season in New York, the thirty-five year old hasn't particularly dazzled in any of the past three years. Yet he remains a lock for 200+ innings, 15+ wins, and 175+ strikeouts, and at least half his value always rests on his qualitative contributions. Perhaps his new role as the veteran Yankee starting pitcher will propel him to a career year, but unless the 35-year-old fixes a problematic homer rate, he instead will post another season around $20. Pushing the bidding on workhorse youngsters like Halladay or Hudson makes more sense than overpaying with the expectation that Mussina finally will win 20 games.

6.		W	S	ERA	WHIP	K	BB	H	IP
Jamie Moyer		21	0	3.27	1.23	129	66	199	215
SEA Mariners		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
P:L    B:L	4x4:	18		30		13		17
2003 Age: 40	5x5:	17		29		14		13

Setting career-best marks in ERA and wins at age 40 is a truly impressive accomplishment for Moyer. Thanks to the incentives in the three-year deal he negotiated for himself a year ago, he also has every reason to post a repeat performance. Unfortunately, the loss of Mike Cameron in center could create problems given Moyer's .85 G-F, particularly since a 2.8 BB/9 indicates a gradual loss of control. A sharp drop in his second half dominance, combined with increasing problems against right-handers, also worries me. Moyer is approaching a statistical cliff rather rapidly, and while I believe he can echo these marks for another year or two, gambling even $20 on the lefty looks like a mistake.

7.		W	S	ERA	WHIP	K	BB	H	IP
Barry Zito		14	0	3.30	1.18	146	88	186	231.2
OAK Athletics		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
P:L    B:L	4x4:	17		30		18		29
2003 Age: 25	5x5:	17		30		19		30

For the second straight year Zito will be the most overpriced starter in many AL drafts. Only Oakland's superlative defense prevents his hit rate, and therefore his WHIP and ERA, from skyrocketing. A drop in his strikeout rate from 8.6 to 5.7 K/9 over the last two season, during which his #P/PA and #P/IP numbers remained almost identical, suggests Zito now spends significantly more pitches to merely match his 2001 results. His failure to improve in the second half last year also worries me, and when combined with a relatively abusive workload for a youngster, I see little upside even in bidding much into double digits for Zito. Let another owner take the risk here as Oakland's other four starters all are safer gambles at their likely draft prices.

8.		W	S	ERA	WHIP	K	BB	H	IP
Mark Mulder		15	0	3.13	1.18	128	40	180	186.2
OAK Athletics		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
P:L    B:L	4x4:	16		27		24		25
2003 Age: 27	5x5:	15		26		24		25

We expected Mulder to win the Cy Young until a stress fracture in his right hip cost him the last six weeks of the season. Aside from the minor possibility of that injury recurring, Mulder's skills and healthy arm again look primed for a career year. Career-best marks of a 1.9 walk rate and 2.01 G-F minimize his immediate downside, and although he isn't particularly dominant, if he receives the same defensive boost that Zito netted in 2003, Mulder should win 20+ games with a sub-3.00 ERA. Tim Hudson may be more consistent, but Mulder appears ready to establish himself as a true co-ace in Oakland's loaded rotation, so heading way past $20 for him is a reasonable gamble.

9.		W	S	ERA	WHIP	K	BB	H	IP
Bartolo Colon		15	0	3.87	1.20	173	67	223	242
CH White Sox		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
P:R    B:R	4x4:	15		26		15		20
2003 Age: 30	5x5:	16		28		15		20

After six seasons of 30 or more starts and three straight year with 220+ IP, Colon has convinced me that his lack of a svelte physique won't prevent him from remaining one of the more impressive workhorses in baseball. Shifting from Chicago's questionable defense and fractured bullpen to a team with Anaheim's defensive prowess and loaded relief corps could push Colon to another 20-win season. A career-worst .93 G-F definitely concerns me, however he also improved his strikeout rate after a two-year plummet. As leaving Comiskey also will help his homer rate, I see no reason even to slow your bidding on Colon below $20.

10.		W	S	ERA	WHIP	K	BB	H	IP
Roger Clemens		17	0	3.91	1.21	190	58	199	211.2
NY Yankees		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
P:R    B:R	4x4:	14		24		10		14
2003 Age: 41	5x5:	16		27		12		15

With his skills still quite similar to his marks in previous seasons, Clemens' lacks any baseball-related reason to retire. If he returns for another season, a fairly likely possibility as he reportedly continues to work out with Andy Pettitte this winter, we expect him to join the Astros in a nearly identical role to the one Nolan Ryan occupied in his last years in Texas. Clemens shouldn't make a road trip until the playoffs, and if he starts the first game of every home stand and rests four days between each home start, he could start 25 games in Minute Maid Park in 2004. As nine more wins and forty-eight strikeout respectively would place him thirteenth and second on the career list in those categories, immediately behind Ryan on each list, the Astros should do everything in their power to make this move happen. Assuming Clemens agrees to an NL deal, he certainly merits bids in the mid-teens, particularly in leagues that count strikeouts, and anyone rostering him in leagues with open transaction policies even could sit him in the weeks Houston spends on the road.

11.		W	S	ERA	WHIP	K	BB	H	IP
Sidney Ponson		17	0	3.75	1.26	134	61	211	216
BAL/SF		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
P:R    B:R	4x4:	14		23		9		4
2003 Age: 26	5x5:	14		24		10		5

While Sir Sidney cost San Francisco three solid young starters while contributing relatively little to the Giants, his age and skill development suggest he will develop into an excellent #2 starter over the next few seasons. Although only his 1.69 G-F and .7 homer rate rank as career-best marks, both his 5.6 K/9 and 2.5 BB/9 demonstrate progress, especially when we consider his increasing stamina. As long as he finds a team with a solid defense and a park that isn't too hitter-friendly, Ponson appears positioned to improve upon his 2003 performance. He merits a bid in the mid-teens on most clubs, although an unexpected signing with an obvious contender like St. Louis or Atlanta could push his value near $20.

12.		W	S	ERA	WHIP	K	BB	H	IP
Ryan Franklin		11	0	3.57	1.23	99	61	199	212
SEA Mariners		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
P:R    B:R	4x4:	13		22		8		9
2003 Age: 32	5x5:	13		21		9		8

The only way Franklin will earn double-digit value again is to somehow build on his second-half performance instead of allowing another 34 homers. His .76 G-F and 1.4 HR/9 indicate obvious downside and a 4.2 K/9 suggests he probably belongs in relief, yet his 2.6 BB/9 and 8.4 H/9 are low enough to allow a sub-4.00 ERA and sub-1.30 WHIP on the Mariners. Therefore, even though his splits depict a future right-handed specialist and Rafael Soriano belongs in the rotation, Franklin should experience reasonable success in his second full season as a starter. Of course, you should keep your bids below $10, but he isn't a bad target for several dollars given his respectable qualitative contribution and likely double-digit win total.

13.		W	S	ERA	WHIP	K	BB	H	IP
Joel Pineiro		16	0	3.78	1.27	151	76	192	211.2
SEA Mariners		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
P:R    B:R	4x4:	13		22		10		17
2003 Age: 25	5x5:	14		23		11		15

Despite an aggressive workload, Pineiro appears perfectly healthy, so his skill decreases qualify as a definite concern. His walk rate as a starter increased by nearly one walk per game, and while his strikeout rate jumped nearly as much, owning a pitcher who adds a similar number of walks and strikeouts is a bad idea for fantasy owners dependent on ERA and WHIP. Drops in Pineiro's hit and homer rates are good signs, however another season of second-half struggles suggests that Pineiro won't post a true breakout in 2004. Hold your bidding to the mid-teens with the expectation that while he appears capable of a sub-3.00 ERA and 20 wins, Pineiro would need incredible lucky to reach that level of roto excellence in the near future.

14.		W	S	ERA	WHIP	K	BB	H	IP
Darrell May		10	0	3.77	1.19	115	53	197	210
KC Royals		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
P:L    B:L	4x4:	13		22		0		R
2003 Age: 31	5x5:	13		22		0		R

The most unexpected ace of 2003, May didn't even begin the year in Kansas City's rotation yet finished the season as the best and most reliable starter on the staff. While his strikeout rate fell below 5.0 and his .71 G-F makes him a risky player to own, his 2.3 BB/9 and the Royals' impressive 2004 lineup gives him decent value in every fantasy league. More importantly, he lacks any obviously troubling splits, and the lack of publicity about May should insure bidding on him remains in single-digits. Although rostering him close to $10 is a gamble, I currently see little reason not to target him since drafting starters capable of double-digit wins and $5 of help in both ERA and WHIP for $5-8 is a key component of many successful fantasy teams.

15.		W	S	ERA	WHIP	K	BB	H	IP
David Wells		15	0	4.14	1.23	101	20	242	213
NY Yankees		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
P:L    B:L	4x4:	12		21		7		13
2003 Age: 40	5x5:	12		20		7		8

Wells appears to be one of the more underappreciated starters in recent memory. Aside from his injury-curtailed 2001 season in Chicago, he hasn't pitched less than 200 innings in the last decade. While his strikeout rate dropped to a career-low 4.3 K/9 last season, his stunning .8 walk rate easily ranks as the best mark of his career. A 1.22 G-F also indicates generally low downside as long as he remains healthy, so I won't be surprised to see Wells lead the Padres to the playoffs this year. Moving to the NL and exchanging the Yankees' poor defense for the Padres' decent fielders even should drop his ERA below 4.00, leaving Wells a decent buy in the $10-15 range.

16.		W	S	ERA	WHIP	K	BB	H	IP
Andy Pettitte		21	0	4.02	1.33	180	50	227	208.1
NY Yankees		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
P:L    B:L	4x4:	12		20		11		12
2003 Age: 31	5x5:	14		23		12		13

After reaching career-high marks in wins and strikeouts, Pettitte's move home to Houston unfortunately may cost him a Hall of Fame spot thanks to Minute Maid Park and the Astros' lower win totals. Fortunately, a 1.76 G-F was his best mark in five years, and the excellent command that he demonstrated over the past three seasons should insure his continued success in the National League. Of course, Pettitte's post-season publicity will push his price over $20 in many leagues. He isn't worth a draft-day bid at that level, so let someone else roster him, and then when Pettitte owns a 4.50 ERA despite decent skills at the end of May, deal for him in time to watch him post his usually dominant second half.

17.		W	S	ERA	WHIP	K	BB	H	IP
C.C. Sabathia		13	0	3.60	1.30	141	66	190	197.2
CLE Indians		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
P:L    B:L	4x4:	11		19		9		12
2003 Age: 23	5x5:	12		21		9		10

Sabathia certainly remains at severe injury risk thanks to accumulating over 500 innings in the majors prior to his 23rd birthday, but if you don't mind that hazard, his skills certainly suggest continued improvement. A drop in his walk rate from 4.7 to 3.0 BB/9 since his 2001 debut demonstrates his developing control, and while he isn't dominating any opponents, he appears perfectly capable of blossoming into an ace over the next decade. Don't bid far into double-digits for him in single-season leagues, however anyone in long-term keeper leagues definitely should give Sabathia significant consideration this spring.

18.		W	S	ERA	WHIP	K	BB	H	IP
Brian Anderson		14	0	3.78	1.29	87	43	212	197.2
CLE/KC		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
P:L    B:R	4x4:	11		19		1		R
2003 Age: 31	5x5:	11		18		1		1

Irritatingly low strikeout rates generally keep us away from Anderson in drafts, yet his consistently impressive control nets him helpful qualitative marks in most years. As his ground-fly ratios over the last two seasons also rank as the best of his career, perhaps his formerly severe homer problem will continue diminishing. Kansas City's offense even could push Anderson above 15 wins for the first time. His past struggles and general inconsistency will keep us from bidding into double-digits for Anderson, however he looks like a perfectly respectable target below $10 for anyone chasing wins or looking for WHIP help.

19.		W	S	ERA	WHIP	K	BB	H	IP
Tim Wakefield		11	1	4.09	1.30	169	71	193	202.1
BOS Red Sox		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
P:R    B:R	4x4:	10		16		13		17
2003 Age: 37	5x5:	11		19		14		15

Boston's current administration thankfully recognizes Wakefield's value not only as a quality workhorse but also as the perfect bridge between flamethrowers like Pedro, Schilling, and Derek Lowe. Mixing a knuckleballer in that group helps the Red Sox throw off the timing of opposing hitters during series, yet while Wakefield's skills are starting to slip, he still looks like a superb 4th starter. I see no reason he can't earn another $10+ in 2004, however I no longer expect him to approach $20 given his gradual decline.

20.		W	S	ERA	WHIP	K	BB	H	IP
Brad Radke		14	0	4.49	1.27	120	28	242	212.1
MIN Twins		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
P:R    B:R	4x4:	10		16		10		16
2003 Age: 30	5x5:	10		17		10		15

Though Radke isn't a true ace, he continues to provide Minnesota with a solid #2 behind new dominator Johan Santana. Unfortunately, despite perennially superior control, Radke remains quite hittable, and his worsening ground-fly ratio and homer rate indicate increasing downside. The fact he consistently posts ERAs above 5.00 in the first half also should keep you away from him on draft day, however he looks like an obvious mid-season trade target. While you still should feel free to roster him if you need an innings-eater, recognize that he doesn't possess the skills necessary to earn around $20 again without surprisingly effective support from the Twins' already-solid defense and offense.

50 Days to Choose Your Pitchers: '04 continues tomorrow with more American League starters.

Today's Fantasy Rx: We normally don't advise spending too much money on starting pitching given the dozens of decent arms with good skills available among middle relievers and back-of-the-rotation pitchers. However, the lack of a dominant AL starter in 2003 could create an interesting opportunity to roster a potential $30 stud at half that price. While four of today's pitchers might change leagues and gambling more than a few bucks on Brian Anderson or Brad Radke is risky, any of the remaining fourteen starters is a good buy in the mid-teens. If any of the slip in your auction, the wins and qualitative contribution each brings to your team could be worth altering your budget and draft plans to accommodate an unexpected bargain.