Today's Fantasy Rx

American League First Basemen without Positive Draft Value

Quick Key to the tables:
AB = At-bats.  H = Hits.  BA = Batting Average.  HR= Home Runs.
RBI = Runs Batted In.  SB = Stolen Bases.  R = Runs.  B = Bats.  T = Throws.
Pos = Position qualification based on 20 appearances or max. # of games in 2003.
2003 Age = Player's Age as of October 1, 2003.
4x4 = BA, HR, RBI, and SB in 12-team, $260 leagues with 23-man rosters.
5x5 = BA, HR, RBI, SB, and R in 12-team, $260 leagues with 23-man rosters.
DV = Draft Value (The price a player earned under a 70/30 hitting/pitching split).
AV = Actual Value (The price a player earned under a 50/50 hitting/pitching split).
Rotohelp = 2003 Rotohelp Predicted Draft Value.
LABR/Tout = 2003 Expert League prices; LABR for 4x4. Tout Wars for 5x5.

Average league worst BA, ERA, and WHIP based on data compiled from TQ Stats.

Players are ranked in order from the highest draft value in a 4x4 league to the lowest. As the majority of fantasy leagues allow you to keep anyone traded to the other league, all players are listed in the league where they began the season.

30.		AB	H	BA	HR	RBI	SB	R	Pos
Brian Daubach		183	42	.230	6	21	1	26	1
CH White Sox		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
B:L    T:R	4x4:	0		0		5		1
2003 Age: 31	5x5:	1		1		5		3

Signing with Chicago was a bad move for Daubach, who never earned the consistent playing time he always found in previous seasons. Yet he posted a .352 OBP, the second-best mark of his career, despite the irregular work. A .19 walk rate, easily a career-high, accounted for much of his value to the White Sox as his contact rate dropped for the fourth straight season, falling to .70. Fortunately, as long as his patience and power remain, Daubach should reemerge as a useful fantasy player as long as he joins a team that can offer more than 30 at-bats a month. He still possesses significant potential if kept in a strict platoon, so a team like Tampa should pair him with a lefty-masher like Eduardo Perez for an inexpensively potent middle-of-the-order force. Spend a few bucks if a similar scenario develops, but plan to ignore Daubach if he stays a reserve.

31.		AB	H	BA	HR	RBI	SB	R	Pos
Todd Sears		73	18	.247	2	11	0	9	1
MIN/SD		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
B:L    T:R	4x4:	0		0		-1
2003 Age: 27	5x5:	0		0		-1		R

While grabbing Sears from the Twins looked like a good idea, the Padres' excess of first baseman should leave Sears in the minors next year. His .254/.347/.378 performance in 283 AB for AAA Rochester(IL) paled in comparison to his three previous exceptional seasons, so I see no reason to target Sears until he proves that his downturn in the majors in 2003 qualifies as a fluke.

32.		AB	H	BA	HR	RBI	SB	R	Pos
Morgan Burkhart		15	3	.200	0	1	0	1	1/D
KC Royals		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
B:S    T:L	4x4:	-1		-1
2003 Age: 31	5x5:	-2		-1

Despite besting his rather terrible numbers in Japan last year, Burkhart still only managed an unimpressive .251/.361/.432 in 382 AB for AAA Omaha(PCL). I see some upside in his plate discipline and power potential, but he appears unlikely to see much more time in the majors.

33.		AB	H	BA	HR	RBI	SB	R	Pos
Fernando Seguignol		7	1	.143	0	0	0	0	1
NY Yankees		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
B:S    T:R	4x4:	-1		-1
2003 Age: 28	5x5:	-2		-1

Seguignol returned from a poor performance in Japan last year to win the International League MPV, compiling a .342/.401/.624 in 402 AB for AAA Columbus(IL). His exceptional season earned him a September promotion, and he merits some fantasy consideration if he breaks camp in the majors. While he lacks great plate discipline, Seguignol remains relatively young and could enjoy a respectable big league career.

34.		AB	H	BA	HR	RBI	SB	R	Pos
Carlos Mendez		45	10	.222	0	5	0	3	1
BAL Orioles		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
B:R    T:R	4x4:	-1		-1
2003 Age: 29	5x5:	-2		-1

Although Mendez certainly earned a long look with the Orioles, his failure even to echo his .347/.375/.500 in 248 AB for AAA Ottawa(IL) could leave him in the minors indefinitely. I see little evidence of plate discipline or even much power potential in his statistical history, rendering Mendez useless to fantasy teams until he demonstrates some ability to post an acceptable average in the majors.

35.		AB	H	BA	HR	RBI	SB	R	Pos
Graham Koonce		8	1	.125	0	0	0	0	1
OAK Athletics		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
B:L    T:L	4x4:	-1		-1
2003 Age: 28	5x5:	-2		-1

Please refer to our Post-2003 Prospect Review: Oakland for my comments on Koonce.

36.		AB	H	BA	HR	RBI	SB	R	Pos
Herb Perry		24	4	.167	0	2	0	1	1
TEX Rangers		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
B:R    T:R	4x4:	-2		-1		7		3
2003 Age: 34	5x5:	-2		-1		8		3

The aging cornerman missed nearly the entire season with shoulder problems, eventually requiring June surgery to repair his rotator cuff and labrum. While he posted very helpful numbers in 2002, Perry no longer appears likely to start in Texas thanks to the development of Hank Blalock and Mark Teixeira. If he recovers by the spring, expect Perry to spend the season as a backup to the youngsters in addition to starting against southpaws at DH, making him worth no more than an endgame gamble.

37.		AB	H	BA	HR	RBI	SB	R	Pos
Andy Abad		17	2	.118	0	0	0	1	1
BOS Red Sox		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
B:L    T:L	4x4:	-2		-1
2003 Age: 31	5x5:	-2		-1

Please refer to our Post-2003 Prospect Review: Boston for my comments on Abad.

38.		AB	H	BA	HR	RBI	SB	R	Pos
Mike Lamb		38	5	.132	0	2	1	3	1/D
TEX Rangers		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
B:L    T:R	4x4:	-2		-1		4		1
2003 Age: 28	5x5:	-3		-2		4		R

Even with Herb Perry missing nearly the entire year, Lamb spent most of the season in the minors, failing to take advantage of his limited opportunities with the Rangers. While he managed a respectable .288/.383/.485 in 274 AB for AAA Oklahoma(PCL), he didn't demonstrate the necessary power potential to warrant any consideration for more than a bench role. Even a potential change of scenery probably leaves him unlikely to accumulate more than a couple hundred at-bats next year, so I see no reason to target him in any league as more than roster filler.

39.		AB	H	BA	HR	RBI	SB	R	Pos
Craig Paquette		33	5	.152	0	0	0	2	1/O
DET Tigers		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
B:R    T:R	4x4:	-2		-1		0
2003 Age: 34	5x5:	-3		-2		0

Paquette somehow managed to produce even worse averages than the .529 OPS he posted in 2002. Detroit mercifully cut him at the end of April, and after all of two weeks with AAA Memphis, he left the Cardinals' organization, apparently retired since he foolishly believes that his terrible recent performance merits a big league job. Even if he somehow returns to the majors, please don't risk rostering him in any league.

'03 First Basemen Week continues tomorrow, featuring Minor League Free Agent and AAA/AA First Basemen in the American League.

Today's Fantasy Rx: Few players on today's list merit serious consideration in the spring, and almost all of them will need a lucky off-season break to secure the playing time necessary to earn any notable value. The one exception may be Graham Koonce of Oakland. His batting skills are quite good, and as long as he breaks camp in the majors as expected after his tremendous 2003 season, gambling a couple bucks on him could net a great profit if he finds regular at-bats.