Today's Fantasy Rx

American League First Basemen with Positive Draft Value

Quick Key to the tables:
AB = At-bats.  H = Hits.  BA = Batting Average.  HR= Home Runs.
RBI = Runs Batted In.  SB = Stolen Bases.  R = Runs.  B = Bats.  T = Throws.
Pos = Position qualification based on 20 appearances or max. # of games in 2003.
2003 Age = Player's Age as of October 1, 2003.
4x4 = BA, HR, RBI, and SB in 12-team, $260 leagues with 23-man rosters.
5x5 = BA, HR, RBI, SB, and R in 12-team, $260 leagues with 23-man rosters.
DV = Draft Value (The price a player earned under a 70/30 hitting/pitching split).
AV = Actual Value (The price a player earned under a 50/50 hitting/pitching split).
Rotohelp = 2003 Rotohelp Predicted Draft Value.
LABR/Tout = 2003 Expert League prices; LABR for 4x4. Tout Wars for 5x5.

Average league worst BA, ERA, and WHIP based on data compiled from TQ Stats.

Players are ranked in order from the highest draft value in a 4x4 league to the lowest. As the majority of fantasy leagues allow you to keep anyone traded to the other league, all players are listed in the league where they began the season.

1.		AB	H	BA	HR	RBI	SB	R	Pos
Aubrey Huff		636	198	.311	34	107	2	91	1/O/D
TB Devil Rays		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
B:L    T:R	4x4:	31		22		20		18
2003 Age: 26	5x5:	30		21		20		19

I don't believe Huff peaked in 2003, but I also don't expect him to lead all AL first basemen in roto value again in the near future. As he essentially repeated nearly all of his 2002 skill ratios, his only statistical growth stems from increased playing time and a better lineup slot. Yet even if Huff doesn't play in every Rays' game over the next few years, his youth and respectable base skills still suggest future improvement. While his current skills indicate the capability to post annual .300/30/100 seasons, any skill development could translate into impressive quantitative gains. Even Huff's splits remain consistently untroubling, making him one of the safest buys in the game around $30. Only exercise caution in AL-only leagues in which you can't keep crossovers; Huff's value and Tampa's 1B/OF/DH surplus could result in a trade to any of a dozen teams, though any deal before 2005 would surprise me.

2.		AB	H	BA	HR	RBI	SB	R	Pos
Carlos Delgado		570	172	.302	42	145	0	117	1
TOR Blue Jays		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
B:L    T:R	4x4:	30		21		22		27
2003 Age: 31	5x5:	30		21		22		27

Heading into a contract year, Delgado remains in his power peak while batting in the middle of a loaded lineup that plays home games in the third best hitters' park in the league. A mild second-half slump doesn't obscure significant improvement in his plate discipline, and if he consolidates those gains while retaining most of his power, he'll earn another bunch of MVP votes. Don't expect another .300 BA, 40 homers, and 145 RBI, but a .290/36/125 season appears quite reasonable, making him an acceptable buy under $30 in most leagues.

3.		AB	H	BA	HR	RBI	SB	R	Pos
Raul Ibanez		608	179	.294	18	90	8	95	1/O
KC Royals		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
B:L    T:R	4x4:	24		17		18		16
2003 Age: 31	5x5:	24		17		17		20

Returning to Seattle places Ibanez in a markedly different ballpark while providing him with generally stronger lineup support. Even with his ground-fly rate increasing for a third straight season, Ibanez should experience increased power production, although a likely slide in batting average could reduce his overall value. Signing him also appears an obvious mistake for Seattle given that the Mariners lost a first round pick without adding a true difference-maker to the lineup. Due to Ibanez's limited upside, holding your bidding at $19 looks like a smart move.

4.		AB	H	BA	HR	RBI	SB	R	Pos
David Ortiz		448	129	.288	31	101	0	79	1/D
BOS Red Sox		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
B:L    T:L	4x4:	19		14		14		5
2003 Age: 27	5x5:	19		14		14		4

Moving from the best AL park for left-handed power hitters to the worst field didn't faze Ortiz as he remained a patient hitter with a solid .88 G-F just entering his prime. He could post even better numbers next year if he rebounds to his slightly superior 2002 skill set, however I suspect the additional media pressure accorded his undeserving MVP candidacy will keep Ortiz's stats somewhat similar to his current marks. Pushing much above $20 qualifies as an unnecessary risk even though Boston's OBP focus guarantees Ortiz significant RBI opportunities and he appears likely to receive more at-bats with no likely competition at DH.

5.		AB	H	BA	HR	RBI	SB	R	Pos
Jeff Conine		577	163	.282	20	95	5	88	1/O
BAL/FLO		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
B:R    T:R	4x4:	19		14		10		10
2003 Age: 37	5x5:	20		14		10		11

The original Mr. Marlin returned to Florida to provide his old team with the veteran leadership Darren Daulton contributed in 1997; Conine's .367 post-season batting average also didn't hurt. Now, thanks to a contract extension that accompanied his trade from Baltimore, Conine will spend the next two seasons as the Marlins' left fielder, a position that his current level of production suggests he won't deserve by 2005. While he still owns respectably strong skills, expect continued erosion of his stats since Pro Player Stadium severely limits right-handed batters. Bidding into double digits for Conine is probably a bad gamble given his age and downside.

6.		AB	H	BA	HR	RBI	SB	R	Pos
Frank Thomas		546	146	.267	42	105	0	87	1/D
CH White Sox		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
B:R    T:R	4x4:	19		13		16		17
2003 Age: 35	5x5:	19		14		16		17

Thomas posted his best season since 2000, and while a depressed contact rate keeps his average at an unhelpful level, his disciplined approach and nearly unbelievable .45 G-F guarantee prolific power numbers. His RBI totals also should increase if the White Sox ever find plop OBP sources at the top of the lineup, particularly in the #2 hole. Expect Thomas to continue producing a purely quantitative contribution near $20 at least for the next couple years, making him an excellent addition to any team as long as you possess a decent qualitative foundation.

7.		AB	H	BA	HR	RBI	SB	R	Pos
Rafael Palmeiro		561	146	.260	38	112	2	92	1/D
TEX Rangers		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
B:L    T:L	4x4:	18		12		20		21
2003 Age: 39	5x5:	18		13		20		23

Vetoing a trade to the Cubs proved pointless when Texas refused to re-sign the veteran slugger. The nearly 40-year-old Palmeiro seems certain to remain in the American League, but with few 1B/DH openings available even for Future Hall of Famers, he could see a significant downturn in performance if limited opportunities force him to a rebuilding team a in a pitchers' park. However, Palmeiro also upped his contact rate from .83 to a .86 mark while managing a career-best 4.07 #P/PA. Only a jump from a .48 G-F to a .70 mark worries me at all, but considering he hasn't compiled less than 38 homers or 104 RBI in any of the last 10 seasons, he remains an excellent quantitative target for a team with a couple of good BA sources.

8.		AB	H	BA	HR	RBI	SB	R	Pos
Kevin Millar		544	150	.276	25	96	3	83	1/O
BOS Red Sox		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
B:R    T:R	4x4:	18		12		15		12
2003 Age: 32	5x5:	18		13		14		16

Florida sold Millar to Japan after letting them convince him that no MLB team wanted him. A Boston waiver claim effectively countered that argument, allowing Millar to emerge as perhaps the most vocal clubhouse leader on a team that nearly won the pennant. Although he arguably displayed his worst skills in a few years, a 3.96 #P/PA and .81 G-F obviously offer intriguing upside, and an everyday job resulted in across-the-board career-best quantitative marks despite a second straight drop in his averages. I expect him to settle into .280/20/80 consistency only slightly better than the performances regularly compiled by Brian Daubach for the Red Sox. Millar remains an offensive asset, but I just don't see much more upside in these numbers.

9.		AB	H	BA	HR	RBI	SB	R	Pos
Doug Mientkiewicz		487	146	.300	11	65	4	67	1
MIN Twins		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
B:L    T:R	4x4:	17		12		17		11
2003 Age: 29	5x5:	17		12		17		11

Mientkiewicz nicely rebounded to his 2001 performance despite a few minor injuries, including torn wrist cartilage near the end of the year that again suggests we shouldn't expect a power surge from him any time soon. Yes, he owns a very solid skill set that indicates significant quantitative upside, but despite consistent contact rate improvement, he appears unable to muscle many pitches over the fence. While Mientkiewicz could approach a .320 BA with a little luck, $20 looks like a fairly hard ceiling for his value even if he moves to a team that presents more RBI/R opportunities.

10.		AB	H	BA	HR	RBI	SB	R	Pos
Mike Sweeney		392	115	.293	16	83	3	62	1/D
KC Royals		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
B:R    T:R	4x4:	16		12		32		32
2003 Age: 30	5x5:	16		11		31		30

The idiotic ritual of banging a player on the helmet after a home rune likely led to the Royals' missed shot at the playoffs since Sweeney missed a third of the season due to neck and back problems probably caused by a post-homer celebration. While the Bash Brothers looked silly at times, they at least risked no serious injury by smacking overly developed muscles together. Assuming the Royals curtail their congratulations in the future, Sweeney looks like a fine bet to rebound as one of the top AL roto first baseman, and his OBP ranks him highly in almost any scoring system. In the first half, Sweeney posted a .321/.440/.540 performance on a 47:29 K:BB in 215 AB, along with 12 HR and 50 RBI. Projected over a reasonable total of 500 AB, a .321/28/116 season pushes him over $30 fairly easily. Yet a career-best 3.74 #P/PA also indicates additional plate patience, and his contact rate certainly should increase from .86 closer to his .89 career norm. Hitting behind Carlos Beltran for one more season also guarantees Sweeney plenty of RBI opportunities, making him an excellent buy at anything below $30, and an acceptable choice even near $35.

11.		AB	H	BA	HR	RBI	SB	R	Pos
Travis Lee		542	149	.275	19	70	6	75	1
TB Devil Rays		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
B:L    T:L	4x4:	16		11		8		10
2003 Age: 28	5x5:	16		11		9		5

Lee posted his best overall performance in his first AL season. He reached career-best levels in his patience and power potential, suggesting he still might develop into a respectable offensive threat at first base. However, he appears headed out of Tampa, which leaves fairly few starting opportunities remaining around the game. Since Lee seems likely to end up with either a platoon job or blocking a quickly-rising prospect, pushing double-digit bidding on him looks like a mistake.

12.		AB	H	BA	HR	RBI	SB	R	Pos
Jason Giambi		535	134	.250	41	107	2	97	1/D
NY Yankees		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
B:L    T:R	4x4:	16		11		26		32
2003 Age: 32	5x5:	17		12		26		33

Given he turns 33 in January, failed to post a .725 OPS against southpaws, and only managed a career-best 4.23 #P/PA and .54 G-F by falling to a career-worst .74 contact rate, an abrupt drop from his .80 mark in 2003, Giambi qualifies as a significant risk in spring drafts. While he should cruise to another 30/100 season, you no longer can count on him even not to hurt your BA. Effectively swapping Nick Johnson for Kenny Lofton in the lineup also leaves Giambi without a regular DH gig available, putting further stress on his questionable knees. Yes, he still possesses the skill set to rebound with a $40 performance, but I see too many worrisome factors here to gamble much above $20 in standard leagues.

13.		AB	H	BA	HR	RBI	SB	R	Pos
Nick Johnson		324	92	.284	14	47	5	60	1/D
NY Yankees		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
B:L    T:L	4x4:	12		9		6		7
2003 Age: 25	5x5:	12		9		8		6

Moving to Montreal provides the rising star with an unquestioned starting job and significantly less pressure to excel immediately in the majors. Of course, losing another two months to a broken hand this spring impedes his development, yet the upside suggested by his skill set suggests the Yankees will regret dealing him. Only a mild increase from a 1.23 G-F to a 1.56 mark concerns me at all, and the benefits accorded Expos' hitters at their home parks should counter that skill slippage. Johnson remains a remarkably disciplined young batter with intriguing power potential. Feel free to approach $20 even if expect him to miss a third of the season since Johnson easily could clear $30 in a full year hitting third for Montreal.

14.		AB	H	BA	HR	RBI	SB	R	Pos
Mark Teixeira		529	137	.259	26	84	1	66	1/O
TEX Rangers		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
B:S    T:R	4x4:	12		9		8		12
2003 Age: 23	5x5:	12		9		8		14

If Texas had held Teixeira back another year, he likely would have run away with the 2004 Rookie of the Year. He still earned consideration thanks to impressive power production, and if he improves his performance on the road, he should challenge for an All-Star spot in the very near future. A .77 contact rate and correspondingly low batting average kept him from approaching $20, but considering his minor league stats and his double-promotion past AAA, I expect him to post a .300 season by 2006. Since Teixeira should move into the cleanup slot behind Blalock and ARod in 2004, giving him significant quantitative upside, you at least should bid him to $20 in the spring.

15.		AB	H	BA	HR	RBI	SB	R	Pos
Erubiel Durazo		537	139	.259	21	77	1	92	1/D
OAK Athletics		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
B:L    T:L	4x4:	10		7		10		19
2003 Age: 29	5x5:	12		9		11		17

Oakland's long-term commitment to Scott Hatteberg makes Durazo surprisingly expendable given his unimpressive debut with the Athletics and the presence of Dan Johnson and Graham Koonce at Sacramento. Durazo nearly his aggregate at-bats from the previous three seasons, however contact problems limited his effectiveness and contributed to a worrisome decline in the second half. Although he remains a patient hitter with good power potential, I never expect him to exceed a .270/30/100 performance, and he easily could remain near his 2003 stats indefinitely. Pushing towards $15 for Durazo isn't a terrible idea given his obvious upside, but I also don't recommend employing him as your primary first baseman without superior offensive sources in the rest of your infield.

16.		AB	H	BA	HR	RBI	SB	R	Pos
John Olerud		539	145	.269	10	83	0	64	1
SEA Mariners		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
B:L    T:L	4x4:	10		7		21		18
2003 Age: 35	5x5:	11		8		21		19

With Olerud apparently heading towards retirement next fall, his power outage this season suggests he could slump into single-digit value in 2004. Despite his excellent plate discipline and solid all-around skills, nothing here suggests more than a mild rebound for the aging Mariner. Treat him as no more than a $10 COR option, although attempting to roster younger talent instead of Olerud looks like a better plan.

17.		AB	H	BA	HR	RBI	SB	R	Pos
Ken Harvey		485	129	.266	13	64	2	50	1/D
KC Royals		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
B:R    T:R	4x4:	9		7		10		4
2003 Age: 25	5x5:	10		7		10		11

Two major obstacles likely will prevent from Harvey emerging as more than a platoon starter. He only managed a .234/.282/.334 in 329 AB against right-handed pitchers and struggled mightily at home, an especially troubling sign given that the Royals will modify Kauffman Field this winter to benefit pitchers. A 2.49 G-F also demonstrates negligible power potential, making Harvey a poor acquisitions as more than an endgame flyer if you find a few extra bucks and need a COR/UT with at least a little upside.

18.		AB	H	BA	HR	RBI	SB	R	Pos
B.J. Surhoff		319	94	.295	5	41	2	32	1/O/D
BAL Orioles		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
B:L    T:R	4x4:	9		7		7
2003 Age: 39	5x5:	9		6		8		R

Surhoff managed a career-best 3.82 #P/PA as he posted a higher roto value than such seemingly superior first basemen as Carlos Pena, Paul Konerko, and Scott Hatteberg. Unfortunately, he doesn't appear likely to match this amount of playing time next season if he returns to Baltimore as expected given the Orioles continue to look for a couple more power sources at the positions Surhoff can play. While he isn't a bad endgame gamble for a buck or two, he isn't someone to target, especially if he appears likely to settle into a part-time role on the Baltimore bench.

19.		AB	H	BA	HR	RBI	SB	R	Pos
Ben Broussard		386	96	.249	16	55	5	53	1
CLE Indians		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
B:L    T:L	4x4:	8		6		-2		1
2003 Age: 27	5x5:	8		6		-2		2

His time in Cleveland seems somewhat limited with Travis Hafner and Michael Aubrey likely to secure the long-term 1B/DH slots, but Broussard certainly possesses a useful skill set right now. Despite weak plate discipline, Broussard nicely compensates for his impatience with a consistently solid ground-fly rate. While his inability to left-handers necessitates a platoon partner, he otherwise appears capable of approach $15 as long as frequent at-bats against southpaws don't drag down his averages.

20.		AB	H	BA	HR	RBI	SB	R	Pos
Carlos Pena		452	112	.248	18	50	4	51	1
DET Tigers		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
B:L    T:L	4x4:	7		5		13		15
2003 Age: 25	5x5:	8		6		13		18

As Pena will enter just his second full major league season in 2004 while turning 26 in May, his performance only should improve over the next few years. While his .73 contact rate remains rather weak, a .12 walk rate and .91 G-F suggest solid long-term upside. I don't expect a true breakout season until 2005, but a .250/25/70 season looks like a good bet in 2004, and he easily could surpass those quantitative marks if his power develops quickly or the Tigers add a couple more solid bats by spring training. If he ever learns to hit left-handers, Pena still could emerge as a superstar, however keeping expectations in the relatively low double-digits is a good idea for now.

21.		AB	H	BA	HR	RBI	SB	R	Pos
Travis Hafner		291	74	.254	14	40	2	35	1/D
CLE Indians		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
B:L    T:R	4x4:	6		4		12		17
2003 Age: 26	5x5:	6		4		12		9

A broken toe and sore left wrist cost him an extra couple of months in the majors, yet despite Ben Broussard's respectable performance and the Indians' abundance of outfielders, I still expect Hafner to emerge as their long-term solution at first base. He demonstrated excellent plate discipline throughout his minor league career and his 3.92 #P/PA and 1.11 G-F are excellent marks for a rookie. While he struggled against left-handers throughout the season, he still managed a .273/.348/.519 in the second half, so hopefully he'll spend the year in the middle of the Indians' lineup. Any projection for Hafner is a guess right now based on expected playing time, but if he opens the year as the starting first baseman, 450 at-bats should let him earn at least $15.

22.		AB	H	BA	HR	RBI	SB	R	Pos
Scott Hatteberg		541	137	.253	12	61	0	63	1
OAK Athletics		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
B:L    T:R	4x4:	5		4		11		3
2003 Age: 33	5x5:	7		5		11		13

Hatteberg effectively collapsed after a very impressive April, making his two-year contract extension very questionable given the limited upside suggested by his age. He failed to demonstrate any obvious splits, posting equally mediocre numbers in both halves and against all pitchers. The one bright spot is his jump over a .90 contact rate, suggesting that he should return near a .280 BA while possibly contributing slightly stronger quantitative stats.

23.		AB	H	BA	HR	RBI	SB	R	Pos
Kevin Witt		270	71	.263	10	26	1	25	1/D
DET Tigers		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
B:L    T:R	4x4:	5		3		-1
2003 Age: 27	5x5:	4		3		-2

An impressive .316/.391/.594 in 133 AB for AAA Toledo(IL) earned Witt his first extended big league look. While he managed a respectable performance, his somewhat limited power potential and weak plate discipline leave him with little long-term upside. Signing a minor league deal with the Cardinals virtually insures him another year in the minors barring an injury to Albert Pujols.

24.		AB	H	BA	HR	RBI	SB	R	Pos
Paul Konerko		444	104	.234	18	65	0	49	1
CH White Sox		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
B:R    T:R	4x4:	3		3		21		24
2003 Age: 27	5x5:	4		3		21		25

Nothing in Konerko's skills explains his terrible first half or his inability to manage more than a .571 OPS against right-handed pitchers. The good news is he rebounded strongly in the second half, demonstrating promising plate discipline and intriguing power potential until a September slump provided an unhappy ending to a troublesome year. Konerko remains set at first base for the White Sox, slotted behind All-Stars Frank Thomas and Magglio Ordonez and likely ahead of Carlos Lee. Given the upside suggested by his skills and lineup protection, I see no reason Konerko won't rebound to his 2002 performance, so feel free to exceed $20 in bidding on a slugger only now reaching his prime. If we project his second half numbers over a full season, a 33/115 season seems surprisingly reasonable.

25.		AB	H	BA	HR	RBI	SB	R	Pos
Mendy Lopez		94	26	.277	3	11	2	13	1
KC Royals		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
B:R    T:R	4x4:	2		2
2003 Age: 28	5x5:	2		2

Although the utilityman posted respectable numbers, his failure to qualify anywhere but first base renders him useless to roto teams that require power-hitters at 1B/CR. Lopez's lack of upside similarly makes him no more than short-term roster filler in any league.

26.		AB	H	BA	HR	RBI	SB	R	Pos
Adam Riggs		61	15	.246	3	5	3	11	1
ANA Angels		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
B:R    T:R	4x4:	1		1
2003 Age: 30	5x5:	1		1

Please refer to our Post-2003 Prospect Review: Anaheim for my comments on Riggs.

27.		AB	H	BA	HR	RBI	SB	R	Pos
Shawn Wooten		272	66	.243	7	32	0	25	1/D
ANA Angels		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
B:R    T:R	4x4:	1		1		5		R
2003 Age: 31	5x5:	1		1		4		1

With a rising ground-fly rate, continued contact problems, and unimpressive plate discipline, Wooten no longer appears worth much fantasy consideration, especially since he no longer qualifies at catcher. While he still possesses decent power potential, employing him as anything more than a backup looks like a mistake.

28.		AB	H	BA	HR	RBI	SB	R	Pos
Robb Quinlan		94	27	.287	0	4	1	13	1
ANA Angels		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
B:R    T:R	4x4:	1		1		1
2003 Age: 26	5x5:	1		1		1

Please refer to our Post-2003 Prospect Review: Anaheim for my comments on Quinlan.

29.		AB	H	BA	HR	RBI	SB	R	Pos
Greg Colbrunn		58	16	.276	3	7	0	7	1
SEA Mariners		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
B:R    T:R	4x4:	1		1		6		R
2003 Age: 34	5x5:	0		0		6		R

Dealt back to Arizona earlier today for Quinton McCracken, Colbrunn appears stuck pinch-hitting with Richie Sexson set at first base. Of course, Colbrunn also never compiled an average lower than .289 in his four previous seasons in the desert, making him perfectly usable as roster filler and a potential Dollar Days' grab in deep leagues if he recovers from his wrist surgery by spring training.

'03 First Basemen Week continues tomorrow, featuring American Leaguers without PDV.

Today's Fantasy Rx: No AL first baseman managed an overly impressive BA and several formerly stalwart performers slumped badly this year, leaving the position with the least quality depth we've seen in years. Mike Sweeney and Nick Johnson are the most likely players to improve if they remain healthy for more than 500 at-bats, but the best targets are Mark Teixeira and Travis Hafner, who could flourish if left in everyday jobs in higher lineup slots. A rebound from Paul Konerko also seems quite likely even if he stays in Chicago.