Today's Fantasy Rx

National League Shortstops without Positive Draft Value

Quick Key to the tables:
AB = At-bats.  H = Hits.  BA = Batting Average.  HR= Home Runs.
RBI = Runs Batted In.  SB = Stolen Bases.  R = Runs.  B = Bats.  T = Throws.
Pos = Position qualification based on 20 appearances or max. # of games in 2003.
2003 Age = Player's Age as of October 1, 2003.
4x4 = BA, HR, RBI, and SB in 12-team, $260 leagues with 23-man rosters.
5x5 = BA, HR, RBI, SB, and R in 12-team, $260 leagues with 23-man rosters.
DV = Draft Value (The price a player earned under a 70/30 hitting/pitching split).
AV = Actual Value (The price a player earned under a 50/50 hitting/pitching split).
Rotohelp = 2003 Rotohelp Predicted Draft Value.
LABR/Tout = 2003 Expert League prices; LABR for 4x4. Tout Wars for 5x5.

Average league worst BA, ERA, and WHIP based on data compiled from TQ Stats.

Players are ranked in order from the highest draft value in a 4x4 league to the lowest. As the majority of fantasy leagues allow you to keep anyone traded to the other league, all players are listed in the league where they began the season.

26.		AB	H	BA	HR	RBI	SB	R	Pos
Royce Clayton		483	110	.228	11	39	5	49	S
MIL Brewers		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
B:R    T:R	4x4:	0		0		5		3
2003 Age: 33	5x5:	1		1		5		5

Baltimore, Los Angeles, Anaheim, San Francisco, Seattle, Colorado, and Detroit all are looking for shortstops this winter, however with a flooded free agent market that includes Miguel Tejada, Kaz Matsui, and Rich Aurilia, Clayton isn't a great option for any team. He hasn't finished either of the last two seasons in the majors after earning his release from the White Sox and then the Brewers, and with his speed effectively gone, few teams care that he owns a little power because his OBP is so bad. As he even lacks the platoon advantage necessary to earn a part-time starting job, Clayton will receive an NRI at best despite career-best marks of a .10 walk rate and 3.83 #P/PA. Unless he finds an unlikely starting job, even considering him during Dollar Days doesn't seem like a smart move.

27.		AB	H	BA	HR	RBI	SB	R	Pos
Felipe Lopez		197	42	.213	2	13	8	28	S
CIN Reds		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
B:S    T:R	4x4:	0		0		12		5
2003 Age: 23	5x5:	0		0		12		6

A dislocated left ankle ended Lopez's season in late August. While he managed a .280/.333/.399 line in 143 AB for AAA Louisville(IL), his poor performance in Cincinnati, coupled with Barry Larkin's new contract and the play of D'Angelo Jimenez, probably forces Lopez back to the minors. A 4.16 #P/PA at least indicated excellent patience, however neither a 1.95 G-F nor a very weak .70 contact rate indicate much immediate power potential. Another few months of seasoning won't hurt Lopez, and if his contact improves, he could emerge as a solid starter by 2005. Consider a late reserve pick in deep leagues, especially if you accidentally draft Larkin.

28.		AB	H	BA	HR	RBI	SB	R	Pos
Jose Vizcaino		189	47	.249	3	26	0	14	S/2
HOU Astros		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
B:L    T:R	4x4:	0		0		0		R
2003 Age: 35	5x5:	-1		0		0		1

Losing two months to a broken left arm gutted Vizcaino's season and allowed Adam Everett to establish himself as the starting shortstop following the release of Julio Lugo. Vizcaino's plate discipline deteriorated notably as he posted a 3.14 #P/PA, his worst mark since his debut over a decade ago. I see no reason to draft Vizcaino anywhere as even returning to Houston gives him no more than a couple bucks of upside.

29.		AB	H	BA	HR	RBI	SB	R	Pos
Rey Sanchez		344	86	.250	0	23	2	33	S
NYM/SEA		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
B:R    T:R	4x4:	-1		0		1		R
2003 Age: 35	5x5:	0		0		2		1

Still possessing one of the best infield gloves in the game, Sanchez unfortunately demonstrates little offensive upside despite consistently respectable averages. As long as he heads to a decent hitters' park, I see no reason he can't contribute a couple bucks qualitatively, but Sanchez owns no obvious quantitative potential. Treat him as no more than short-term roster filler.

30.		AB	H	BA	HR	RBI	SB	R	Pos
Jose Hernandez		519	117	.225	13	57	2	58	S/3
COL/CHC/PIT		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
B:R    T:R	4x4:	-1		0		17		22
2003 Age: 34	5x5:	1		1		17		20

Although he managed respectable quantitative totals, Hernandez largely failed to take advantage of Coors, earning one trade to the Cubs for Mark Bellhorn and then another to the Pirates in the Aramis Ramirez deal. He remains a decently patient hitter with good power potential, but I suspect few teams value him as more than a reserve infielder with good pop due to his continually elevated strikeout totals. Hernandez's 550 strikeouts over the last three seasons easily place him first all-time over a three-year span, and even sabermetrically-inclined general managers won't jump at adding such a contact sinkhole to the everyday lineup. Given his limited speed skills, don't spend more than a few bucks on Hernandez even if he lands a starting job due to the downside inherent in his poor averages.

31.		AB	H	BA	HR	RBI	SB	R	Pos
Mike Mordecai		89	19	.213	2	8	3	11	S
FLO Marlins		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
B:R    T:R	4x4:	-1		0		-4
2003 Age: 35	5x5:	-1		-1		-3

The combination of a 3.91 #P/PA and .78 G-F mildly intrigues me, especially since his average should rebound near his .246 career mark, but I simply see no reason to target the unimpressive Mordecai. He owns no more than a buck or two of fantasy upside regardless of where he spends next season.

32.		AB	H	BA	HR	RBI	SB	R	Pos
Joe McEwing		278	67	.241	1	16	3	31	S/2
NY Mets		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
B:R    T:R	4x4:	-1		0		3
2003 Age: 30	5x5:	0		0		3

Super Joe managed a career-best 4.24 #P/PA this year, however unimpressive contact rates and limited power effectively negated his offensive upside. As McEwing also no longer appears to own good speed skills, I see little reason to draft him in any league.

33.		AB	H	BA	HR	RBI	SB	R	Pos
Clint Barmes		25	8	.320	0	2	0	2	S
COL Rockies		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
B:R    T:R	4x4:	-1		0		-4
2003 Age: 24	5x5:	-2		-1		-5

Please refer to our Post-2003 Prospect Review: Colorado for my comments on Barmes.

34.		AB	H	BA	HR	RBI	SB	R	Pos
Eric Bruntlett		54	14	.259	1	4	0	3	S
HOU Astros		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
B:R    T:R	4x4:	-1		-1
2003 Age: 25	5x5:	-2		-1

His .259/.332/.309 performance at AAA New Orleans(PCL) earned him an extended stay in Houston during the summer in place of the injured Jose Vizcaino. Bruntlett unfortunately failed to demonstrate his decent speed skills in the majors, indicating he possesses negligible offensive upside as a reserve infielder. Don't employ him as anything more than short-term roster filler.

35.		AB	H	BA	HR	RBI	SB	R	Pos
Andy Machado		0	0	.000	0	0	1	0	S
PHI Phillies		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
B:S    T:R	4x4:	-1		-1
2003 Age: 22	5x5:	-2		-1

Please refer to our Post-2003 Prospect Review: Philadelphia for my comments on Machado.

36.		AB	H	BA	HR	RBI	SB	R	Pos
Donaldo Mendez		84	19	.226	2	9	1	10	S
SD Padres		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
B:R    T:R	4x4:	-1		-1		-4
2003 Age: 25	5x5:	-2		-1		-4

With a .226/.288/.324 in 358 at-bats for AAA Portland(PCL), Mendez looks very unlikely to contribute offensively in the big leagues any time soon. Drafting anywhere looks like an invitation to qualitative disaster.

37.		AB	H	BA	HR	RBI	SB	R	Pos
Cody Ransom		27	6	.222	1	1	0	7	S
SF Giants		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
B:R    T:R	4x4:	-2		-1		-5
2003 Age: 27	5x5:	-2		-1		-5

Please refer to our Post-2003 Prospect Review: San Francisco for my comments on Ransom.

38.		AB	H	BA	HR	RBI	SB	R	Pos
Rainer Olmedo		230	55	.239	0	17	1	24	S
CIN Reds		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
B:S    T:R	4x4:	-2		-1
2003 Age: 22	5x5:	-2		-1

Demonstrating decent patience while posting .294/.349/.400 over 160 at-bats for AA Chattanooga(SL) earned Olmedo a summons to replace Barry Larkin in Cincinnati for much of the season. Of course, he predictably struggled and failed to maintain even his speed skills from last season. Olmedo likely needs at least another full year of seasoning before he merits any fantasy consideration.

39.		AB	H	BA	HR	RBI	SB	R	Pos
Khalil Greene		65	14	.215	2	6	0	8	S
SD Padres		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
B:R    T:R	4x4:	-2		-1				R
2003 Age: 23	5x5:	-3		-1				R

Please refer to our Post-2003 Prospect Review: San Diego for my comments on Greene.

40.		AB	H	BA	HR	RBI	SB	R	Pos
Jorge Velandia		58	11	.190	0	8	0	6	S
NY Mets		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
B:R    T:R	4x4:	-3		-2
2003 Age: 28	5x5:	-3		-2

Don't expect Velandia back in the majors in the near future after he posted an unimpressive .235/.306/.393 line at AAA Norfolk(IL) before losing even that meager power in the majors. He owns sufficient patience to reemerge as a decent utility infielder in a couple years, but he appears unable to contribute to either big league or fantasy teams right now.

41.		AB	H	BA	HR	RBI	SB	R	Pos
Augie Ojeda		25	3	.120	0	0	0	2	S
CH Cubs		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
B:S    T:R	4x4:	-3		-2
2003 Age: 28	5x5:	-4		-2

Minnesota surprisingly claimed Ojeda off waivers from the Cubs earlier this week. Apparently his consistently strong plate discipline impressed Twins' management, allowing them to overlook his unimpressive .251/.351/.329 performance at AAA Iowa(PCL) this season. While Augie remains a fan favorite with a little speed, consistently poor averages in the majors give him little chance of posting positive fantasy value in Minnesota.

42.		AB	H	BA	HR	RBI	SB	R	Pos
Enrique Cruz		71	6	.085	0	2	0	6	S
MIL Brewers		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
B:R    T:R	4x4:	-7		-5		1		1
2003 Age: 21	5x5:	-7		-4		1

The first of last year's Rule 5 draft expectedly collapsed in the majors after jumping from A-ball to Milwaukee, and then an apparent mental breakdown caused the Brewers to give Cruz a two-year extension. While I understand their desire to retain him in the organization without occupying a 40-man roster space, an event likely insured by his guaranteed contract, Cruz simply didn't demonstrate enough upside to warrant that move. Do not draft him in any league.

'03 Shortstop Week concludes tomorrow, featuring Minor League Free Agent and AAA/AA Shortstops in the National League.

Today's Fantasy Rx: Khalil Greene may own the most long-term upside among today's shortstops, but a couple other players definitely intrigue me. Felipe Lopez possesses significant potential despite ranking behind Barry Larkin and Ray Olmedo on Cincinnati's shortstop depth chart. I also see no reason why Jose Hernandez can't reemerge as a useful fantasy player, although given his terrible performance in Colorado, don't risk rostering him without solid evidence of a rebound.