Today's Fantasy Rx

National League Shortstops with Single-digit Positive Draft Value

Quick Key to the tables:
AB = At-bats.  H = Hits.  BA = Batting Average.  HR= Home Runs.
RBI = Runs Batted In.  SB = Stolen Bases.  R = Runs.  B = Bats.  T = Throws.
Pos = Position qualification based on 20 appearances or max. # of games in 2003.
2003 Age = Player's Age as of October 1, 2003.
4x4 = BA, HR, RBI, and SB in 12-team, $260 leagues with 23-man rosters.
5x5 = BA, HR, RBI, SB, and R in 12-team, $260 leagues with 23-man rosters.
DV = Draft Value (The price a player earned under a 70/30 hitting/pitching split).
AV = Actual Value (The price a player earned under a 50/50 hitting/pitching split).
Rotohelp = 2003 Rotohelp Predicted Draft Value.
LABR/Tout = 2003 Expert League prices; LABR for 4x4. Tout Wars for 5x5.

Average league worst BA, ERA, and WHIP based on data compiled from TQ Stats.

Players are ranked in order from the highest draft value in a 4x4 league to the lowest. As the majority of fantasy leagues allow you to keep anyone traded to the other league, all players are listed in the league where they began the season.

9.		AB	H	BA	HR	RBI	SB	R	Pos
Alex Gonzalez		528	135	.256	18	77	0	52	S
FLO Marlins		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
B:R    T:R	4x4:	7		5		-2		1
2003 Age: 26	5x5:	8		6		-1		R

Though Gonzalez won't turn 27 until February and Pro Player Stadium suppresses his stats, his terrible second half performance of .208/.285/.344 suggests he won't sustain this level of value. Of course, his .80 contact rate, 3.71 #P/PA, and .72 G-F respectively all are the second-best marks of his career in those stats, so only his weak walk rate truly hurts his overall numbers. While his speed completely disappeared, Gonzalez also hit lefties solidly all year and displayed welcome power in the first half. Considering his age, experience, historical tools, and marginal skill development, I see enough evidence to recommend him in 2004 for anything under $10. Even if he hurts your batting average, Gonzalez at least should contribute a few bucks of quantitative stats, and only his lack of consistency keeps him from approaching $20.

10.		AB	H	BA	HR	RBI	SB	R	Pos
Adam Everett		387	99	.256	8	51	8	51	S
HOU Astros		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
B:R    T:R	4x4:	7		5		-4
2003 Age: 26	5x5:	8		6		-5

Inheriting the starting job following the release of Julio Lugo, Everett posted surprisingly strong numbers, especially considering he only managed a .250/.306/.360 in 100 at-bats for AAA New Orleans(PCL) at the beginning of the season. His 3.76 #P/PA and .94 G-F both indicate good upside for a young shortstop mostly known for his fielding prowess. While Everett's questionable plate discipline leaves him at risk for a weak BA even in Houston, the possibility of double-digit homers and steals from a likely single-digit MIF should attract a respectable level of interest.

11.		AB	H	BA	HR	RBI	SB	R	Pos
Jack Wilson		558	143	.256	9	62	5	58	S
PIT Pirates		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
B:R    T:R	4x4:	7		5		3		1
2003 Age: 25	5x5:	8		6		5		1

Despite limited skill development, Wilson enters his age-26 season with nearly three years of big league experience, suggesting some potential for a breakout campaign. He exceeded his career homer total in 2003 by 2 home runs, and an improving contact rate similarly could combine with a consistent 1.16 G-F to produce another power surge. However, his weak BA still forces me to recommend you target Wilson as no more than a decent MIF option for less than $5.

12.		AB	H	BA	HR	RBI	SB	R	Pos
Ramon Vazquez		422	110	.261	3	30	10	56	S
SD Padres		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
B:L    T:R	4x4:	7		5		9		8
2003 Age: 27	5x5:	7		5		10		9

An abdominal strain cost Vazquez a month on the disabled list at the beginning of summer. A terrible August performance than allowed San Diego to start Khail Greene at shortstop in September, likely leaving Vazquez without a starting job next year with Green, Sean Burroughs, and Mark Loretta set around the horn. Vazquez's major problem remains an ability to hit southpaws, however limited power also reduces his long-term upside. While I like his patience, and dropping from a 2.17 G-F to a 1.66 mark nicely augments his respectable speed skills, Vazquez looks like a Dollar Days' UT option barring an injury-induced opening in the everyday lineup.

13.		AB	H	BA	HR	RBI	SB	R	Pos
Juan Uribe		316	80	.253	10	33	7	45	S
COL Rockies		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
B:R    T:R	4x4:	6		4		1		5
2003 Age: 24	5x5:	6		5		2		1

A stress fracture in his right foot cost Uribe the first two months of the season. Unfortunately, he also performed rather poorly after returning, managing only a .297 OBP with terrible plate discipline. At least he only turns 25 next summer and still plays in Coors, which allows him to take advantage of a 1.03 G-F and decent speed skills. His career-best 3.91 #P/PA also suggests a definite possibility of development in his approach at the plate, making him an intriguing albeit risky buy anywhere around $10.

14.		AB	H	BA	HR	RBI	SB	R	Pos
Abraham O. Nunez		311	77	.248	4	35	9	37	S/2
PIT Pirates		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
B:S    T:R	4x4:	5		4		-3		R
2003 Age: 27	5x5:	5		4		-2

Once again Nunez emerged as a semi-regular despite a terrible performance at the plate. His 2.30 G-F indicates his meager power surge qualifies as a fluke, leaving only his SB total to provide much fantasy value. While Nunez might not hurt you as a Dollar Days' MIF, I strongly recommend trying to add someone with more upside.

15.		AB	H	BA	HR	RBI	SB	R	Pos
Cesar Izturis		558	140	.251	1	40	10	47	S
LA Dodgers		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
B:S    T:R	4x4:	4		3		1		1
2003 Age: 23	5x5:	5		4		2		1

Izturis turns 24 in February and enters 2004 with over two full years as a starter under his belt. He owns intriguing speed skills, developing patience, and a secure job due to his normally outstanding fielding. Unfortunately, a drop in his contact rate from .91 to .87 keeps me from recommending him as anything more than a decent SB threat who will hurt you qualitatively to some extent. Gambling more than a few bucks on Izturis looks like a mistake unless desperate for steals near the end of your draft.

16.		AB	H	BA	HR	RBI	SB	R	Pos
Ramon E. Martinez		293	83	.283	3	34	0	30	S/2/3
CH Cubs		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
B:R    T:R	4x4:	4		3		4		1
2003 Age: 30	5x5:	4		3		4		R

Although Martinez managed relatively strong numbers while qualifying at every infield position save first base, he failed to reach the quantitative levels I expected upon leaving PacBell. Increasing his ground-fly ratio from .72 to 1.28 negated any possible power surge stemming from the improved plate discipline demonstrated by a career-best 3.76 #P/PA. With no further breakout particularly likely and Martinez unlikely to see much more playing time, he only possesses decent value to teams looking for a Dollar Days' MIF with very useful position flexibility.

17.		AB	H	BA	HR	RBI	SB	R	Pos
Barry Larkin		241	68	.282	2	18	2	39	S
CIN Reds		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
B:R    T:R	4x4:	3		3		4		5
2003 Age: 39	5x5:	4		3		5		10

Larkin turns 40 in May yet remains a respectable offensive threat due to solid plate discipline and respectable power. Unfortunately, otherwise failing skills give him little roto value. His speed appears gone, and solid patience won't compensate for a career-worst 1.81 G-F. The extremely injury-prone future Hall of Famer only merits a couple bucks in leagues with decent reserve lists due to the likelihood of Larkin missing at least a third of the season.

18.		AB	H	BA	HR	RBI	SB	R	Pos
Juan Castro		320	81	.253	9	33	2	28	S/2/3
CIN Reds		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
B:R    T:R	4x4:	3		2		-5
2003 Age: 31	5x5:	3		2		-5

Barry Larkin's frequent replacement at shortstop remains fairly incompetent offensively. A .253/.290/.388 season simply should not qualify as a career year, yet Castro's respectable quantitative marks netted him positive value. Of course, I see no reason why his playing time and averages both won't crash in 2004, making Castro a poor choice in almost every league.

19.		AB	H	BA	HR	RBI	SB	R	Pos
Craig Counsell		303	71	.234	3	21	11	40	S/3
ARI Diamondbacks		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
B:L    T:R	4x4:	3		2		8		3
2003 Age: 33	5x5:	3		3		9		6

A dislocated thumb ripped the middle two months out of Counsell's season. While he posted a .385 OBP over the first few weeks of the season, the acquisition of Shea Hillenbrand and emergence of Alex Cinton and Matt Kata over the summer limited Counsell's playing time in the second half. Now he appears headed to Milwaukee in the near future in a deal for Richie Sexson, which means he'll only start at shortstop until J.J. Hardy finishes his apprenticeship in the minors. Of course, Counsell still owns excellent plate discipline and decent speed, so a helpful BA and several steals are a good bet even if he only manages another 300 at-bats. I think Counsell probably will finish 2004 with closer to 400 AB, however his lack of power and uncertain role should keep your bids near $5.

20.		AB	H	BA	HR	RBI	SB	R	Pos
Mark DeRosa		266	70	.263	6	22	1	40	S/2/3
ATL Braves		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
B:R    T:R	4x4:	2		2		8		6
2003 Age: 28	5x5:	3		2		8		10

While DeRosa looks like the favorite to win the Braves' starting third base job next spring, Atlanta needs to find an alternative if they don't want to suffer a major offensive decline even from Vinny Castilla. Yes, DeRosa demonstrated better patience and power this year, suggesting some upside, and he also posted a respectable .300/.350/.400. Unfortunately, he really belongs in a platoon at best, so while he won't hurt you for a couple of bucks and his position flexibility is helpful, he isn't a great roto target.

21.		AB	H	BA	HR	RBI	SB	R	Pos
Tony Womack		349	79	.226	2	22	13	43	S/2
ARI/COL/CHC		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
B:L    T:R	4x4:	2		2		17		14
2003 Age: 34	5x5:	3		2		17		15

The aging speedster hurt three different teams offensively this season. An MCL sprain in late June ended his career with Arizona as the Diamondbacks dealt Womack to Colorado upon his return from the disabled list. The Rockies then tossed him to the Cubs for another young pitcher a month later. A variety of minor injuries limited his effectiveness in Chicago before October Tommy John surgery on his right elbow left Womack's career at a crossroads. While he offers little to big league teams right now, he still owns the sped skills necessary to help roto teams, so consider spending a high reserve pick on Womack if you see him available in the spring and you might net a dozen steals for minimal cost.

22.		AB	H	BA	HR	RBI	SB	R	Pos
Alex S. Gonzalez		536	122	.228	20	59	3	71	S
CH Cubs		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
B:R    T:R	4x4:	2		2		11		10
2003 Age: 30	5x5:	4		3		12		9

Despite a growing reputation for clutch performances thanks to a couple of game-winning homers, Gonzalez's error in the 8th innings of Game 6 of the NLCS effectively ruined the Cubs' season. Keeping him at shortstop would be a mistake for Chicago, however we've seen no evidence that they'll make a chance before his contract expires next fall. At least a career-best 1.09 G-F and a marginally decent .77 contact rate suggest he should rebound near a .250 BA with another 20 homers even though he struggled in the second half. I still wouldn't gamble more than a couple of bucks on him due to his BA downside, but his quantitative contribution certainly can help some teams.

23.		AB	H	BA	HR	RBI	SB	R	Pos
Neifi Perez		328	84	.256	1	31	3	27	S/2
SF Giants		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
B:S    T:R	4x4:	2		1		-3		R
2003 Age: 30	5x5:	2		1		-2		1

After spending a season covering both for Ray Durham and Rich Aurilia, Perez's guaranteed contract strongly suggests he'll replace Aurilia if the long-term Giants' shortstop departs in free agency as expected. Unfortunately for San Francisco loyalists, Perez remains a terrible offensive player unlikely to contribute anything offensively. Yes, his defensive gifts will help Giants' starters, and he makes sufficient contact to register a decent RBI total. Perez also posted a career-worst 1.40 G-F on top of his terrible patience, so I simply see no reason to select him anywhere save perhaps sim leagues where his defensive skills offer marginal value to some teams.

24.		AB	H	BA	HR	RBI	SB	R	Pos
Bill Hall		142	37	.261	5	20	1	23	S/2
MIL Brewers		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
B:R    T:R	4x4:	1		1		-4
2003 Age: 23	5x5:	1		1		-5

While Hall's .282/.335/.407 in 354 at-bats in his second season at AAA Indianapolis(IL) suggest some upside, his terrible plate discipline and limited power potential simply don't impress me at all. The likely Richie Sexson deal should leave Hall buried between Junior Spivey and Craig Counsell in the majors and Rickie Weeks and J.J. Hardy in the minors. Of course, Hall still possesses a little upside due to his respectable speed skills, but the potential for a significant BA hit makes him worth no more than a Dollar Days' MIF gamble.

25.		AB	H	BA	HR	RBI	SB	R	Pos
Lou Merloni		181	48	.265	1	18	2	24	S/3
SD/BOS		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
B:R    T:R	4x4:	1		1		0
2003 Age: 32	5x5:	1		1		0

After leaving Boston for the first time last winter, Merloni returned in a trade with San Diego at the end of August. He remains a patient player with a little power and negligible fantasy value. Regardless of where he lands in 2004, Merloni appears unlikely to contribute as anything more than roster filler.

'03 Shortstop Week continues tomorrow, featuring National Leaguers without PDV.

Today's Fantasy Rx: Most of today's shortstops overachieved to some extent, however a few remain sleepers for 2004. Counsell and DeRosa only need to remain healthy and find regular playing time to push double-digit value, Izturis and Womack own solid speed skills, and Ramon Vazquez looks like a decent utility player. Even Jack Wilson appears positioned to post respectable numbers. Of course, Juan Uribe is the wild card here, and if he wins a full-time job, he could earn anywhere from $3 to $30. He's worth the gamble as long as you can stay well under $10.