Today's Fantasy Rx

National League Shortstops with Double-digit Positive Draft Value

Quick Key to the tables:
AB = At-bats.  H = Hits.  BA = Batting Average.  HR= Home Runs.
RBI = Runs Batted In.  SB = Stolen Bases.  R = Runs.  B = Bats.  T = Throws.
Pos = Position qualification based on 20 appearances or max. # of games in 2003.
2003 Age = Player's Age as of October 1, 2003.
4x4 = BA, HR, RBI, and SB in 12-team, $260 leagues with 23-man rosters.
5x5 = BA, HR, RBI, SB, and R in 12-team, $260 leagues with 23-man rosters.
DV = Draft Value (The price a player earned under a 70/30 hitting/pitching split).
AV = Actual Value (The price a player earned under a 50/50 hitting/pitching split).
Rotohelp = 2003 Rotohelp Predicted Draft Value.
LABR/Tout = 2003 Expert League prices; LABR for 4x4. Tout Wars for 5x5.

Average league worst BA, ERA, and WHIP based on data compiled from TQ Stats.

Players are ranked in order from the highest draft value in a 4x4 league to the lowest. As the majority of fantasy leagues allow you to keep anyone traded to the other league, all players are listed in the league where they began the season.

1.		AB	H	BA	HR	RBI	SB	R	Pos
Edgar Renteria		587	194	.330	13	100	34	96	S
STL Cardinals		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
B:R    T:R	4x4:	44		31		27		25
2003 Age: 28	5x5:	41		29		26		24

Finishing as the 4th most valuable NL position player, as well as earning more than 33% more than Orlando Cabrera, the next best NL shortstop, places Renteria into rare roto territory. St. Louis might have made the playoffs if LaRussa had moved Renteria to the top of the lineup full-time rather than wasting plate appearances on Fernando Vina and Bo Hart. While Renteria's .316/.364/.434 against right-handers is good, his .391/.503/.670 against lefties ranks with any player in baseball. His 34 steals and 83% SB success rate give him additional value in the leadoff slot. The best news here is that Renteria's .91 contact rate suggests he will maintain a .300+ BA indefinitely. I doubt more than a couple owners will bid over $40 for him, yet his current skill level, combined with a batting order slot either in front or behind Pujols, Edmonds, and Renteria, suggest we at least won't see him dip below $30 any time soon. Acquiring him at anything below $35 in 2004 gives you a nice bargain, and anything up to $40 is defensible given his skills and consistent development.

2.		AB	H	BA	HR	RBI	SB	R	Pos
Orlando Cabrera		626	186	.297	17	80	24	95	S
MON Expos		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
B:R    T:R	4x4:	31		22		25		19
2003 Age: 28	5x5:	30		21		24		27

Good health allowed Cabrera to post career-best marks of a .08 walk rate, 3.62 #P/PA, 92% SB success rate, and a 1.08 G-F. Cabrera even nearly managed a .300 average despite slipping under a .90 contact rate for the first time since his rookie season. I see no reason he won't maintain this level of production as he heads into his free agent year, especially if he continues to enjoy the benefits of two surprisingly hitter-friendly home parks.

3.		AB	H	BA	HR	RBI	SB	R	Pos
Rafael Furcal		664	194	.292	15	61	25	130	S
ATL Braves		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
B:S    T:R	4x4:	29		20		20		20
2003 Age: 25	5x5:	30		21		20		18

Bumping his contact rate from .82 to .89 translated into across-the-board average gains for the Braves' shortstop. Dropping his ground-fly down to 1.62, his third straight season of improved power potential, combined with his contact improvement to result in Furcal nearly matching his previous career homer total. He even managed the best SB success rate of his four-year career at 93%. Since he only turned 25 in August, I see little reason he can't continue building on this season to emerge as perhaps the best shortstop in the league. Furcal merits a significant bid in any league.

4.		AB	H	BA	HR	RBI	SB	R	Pos
Alex Cintron		448	142	.317	13	51	2	70	S
ARI Diamondbacks		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
B:S    T:R	4x4:	17		12		-3
2003 Age: 24	5x5:	17		12		-3

Registering an unexpectedly outstanding .393/.435/.589 in 107 at-bats at AAA Tucson(PCL) propelled Cintron into Arizona's starting lineup by the start of summer. Although he demonstrated little patience in the majors, the combination of a .93 contact rate with a 1.37 G-F led to helpful power numbers, not to mention a surprisingly high batting average. If Cintron consolidates these gains in 2004, he could emerge as a top shortstop within a couple seasons.

5.		AB	H	BA	HR	RBI	SB	R	Pos
Jimmy Rollins		628	165	.263	8	62	20	85	S
PHI Phillies		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
B:S    T:R	4x4:	16		11		28		24
2003 Age: 24	5x5:	17		12		27		19

A second straight season of declining numbers indicates worrisome stagnation for Rollins. His plummeting SB total keeps cutting his roto value while a complete lack of skill development suggests no pending breakout or return to his rookie level of production. Despite his respectable long-term upside, Rollins doesn't merit any bid above the teens until he demonstrates at least a minor uptick in his patience, power potential, or speed skills.

6.		AB	H	BA	HR	RBI	SB	R	Pos
Julio Lugo		498	135	.271	15	55	12	64	S
HOU/TB		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
B:R    T:R	4x4:	15		10		9		9
2003 Age: 27	5x5:	15		10		10		11

Houston released Lugo following his arrest for domestic assault. Tampa signed him less than a week later, making the Astros look foolish after an All-Star break trial acquitted Lugo of all charges. The pickup proved quote serendipitous for the Rays as Rey Ordonez suffered a season-ending injury soon after they added Lugo. He thanked his new team for the opportunity by posting nearly career-best numbers, demonstrating both patience and intriguing power potential while stealing a dozen bases. Although Lugo doesn't quite fit with Tampa's youth movement, expect him to spend one more season starting for the Rays. He certainly owns the skills necessary to approach $20, however bidding much more than his final 2003 value looks like a mistake considering his mildly uncertain playing time.

7.		AB	H	BA	HR	RBI	SB	R	Pos
Jose Reyes		274	84	.307	5	32	13	47	S
NY Mets		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
B:S    T:R	4x4:	14		10		-2		3
2003 Age: 20	5x5:	13		9		-3		3

Hamstring problems intermittently interrupted Reyes' season before a right ankle sprain forced him to the DL for all of September. However, he also posted surprisingly strong numbers during his nearly three months in the majors. While Reyes' .269/.333/.356 in 160 at-bats at AAA Norfolk(IL) didn't demonstrate his ability to succeed in the majors, his 26/31 SB% in those 42 games indicated intriguing upside. He obviously fulfilled general expectations by posting an average over .300 after his promotion, although limited patience and power potential suggests he won't flourish for a few more seasons. More development time also wouldn't hurt the youngster, but he appears set at shortstop for the Mets, so if his ankle recovers by spring training, Reyes' SB upside merits a significant bid from owners needing steals.

8.		AB	H	BA	HR	RBI	SB	R	Pos
Rich Aurilia		505	140	.277	13	58	2	65	S
SF Giants		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
B:R    T:R	4x4:	11		8		14		21
2003 Age: 32	5x5:	11		8		15		19

Aurilia's 2001 breakout increasingly looks like a career year as he managed only minor improvements over last season's stats. An appendectomy cost him most of August, which limited his quantitative upside, but he only appears likely exceed a .280 average again if he finds a more hospitable home park than PacBell. His very solid .88 G-F loses value in such a pitcher-friendly environment. While Aurilia appears unlikely to reemerge as an All-Star, particularly if he heads to the American League, I see no reason he can't return to 20 homers in the right environment, making him a good pick in the low double digits.

'03 Shortstop Week continues tomorrow, featuring National Leaguers with Single-digit PDV.

Today's Fantasy Rx: With Renteria and Cabrera historically undervalued in many leagues, Rollins and Aurilia due for rebounds, and Reyes emerging as a fantasy star, shortstop looks like a prime source of bargains in NL leagues. Aside from your normal SS slot, targeting one of the shortstops discussed above for your MIF slot makes a lot of sense considering nearly every quality NL second basemen overachieved this season.