Today's Fantasy Rx

American League Catchers without Positive Draft Value

Quick Key to the tables:
AB = At-bats.  H = Hits.  BA = Batting Average.  HR= Home Runs.
RBI = Runs Batted In.  SB = Stolen Bases.  R = Runs.  B = Bats.  T = Throws.
Pos = Position qualification based on 20 appearances or max. # of games in 2003.
2003 Age = Player's Age as of October 1, 2003.
4x4 = BA, HR, RBI, and SB in 12-team, $260 leagues with 23-man rosters.
5x5 = BA, HR, RBI, SB, and R in 12-team, $260 leagues with 23-man rosters.
DV = Draft Value (The price a player earned under a 70/30 hitting/pitching split).
AV = Actual Value (The price a player earned under a 50/50 hitting/pitching split).
Rotohelp = 2003 Rotohelp Predicted Draft Value.
LABR/Tout = 2003 Expert League prices; LABR for 4x4. Tout Wars for 5x5.

Average league worst BA, ERA, and WHIP based on data compiled from TQ Stats.

Players are ranked in order from the highest draft value in a 4x4 league to the lowest. As the majority of fantasy leagues allow you to keep anyone traded to the other league, all players are listed in the league where they began the season.

24.		AB	H	BA	HR	RBI	SB	R	Pos
Todd Greene		205	47	.229	10	20	0	25	C
TEX Rangers		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
B:R    T:R	4x4:	0		1		1		1
2003 Age: 32	5x5:	1		1		1		4

While Greene retains some value thanks to his power production and catcher-eligibility, he remains a one-dimensional player. Despite holding a ground-fly ratio under .70 for the second straight year, a poor .77 contact rate, combined with an essentially invisible .01 walk rate severely curtails his value to MLB teams. He also hit noticeably better in the hitter-friendly confines in Texas, and a reverse platoon split further reduces his usefulness. I expect his playing to drop severely next year, possibly to less than 100 at-bats, and unless he unexpectedly improves his plate discipline, he won't belong in the majors for many more years.

25.		AB	H	BA	HR	RBI	SB	R	Pos
Gerald Laird		44	12	.273	1	4	0	9	C
TEX Rangers		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
B:R    T:R	4x4:	0		0		-2
2003 Age: 23	5x5:	0		0		-2

Please refer to our Post-2003 Prospect Review: Texas for my comments on Laird.

26.		AB	H	BA	HR	RBI	SB	R	Pos
Robert Machado		49	13	.265	1	3	0	8	C
BAL Orioles		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
B:R    T:R	4x4:	0		0		-2		R
2003 Age: 30	5x5:	-1		0		-1

A .600/.667/.900 performance in 10 at-bats against southpaws skews Machado's overall numbers, however his previous big league splits suggest he wouldn't hurt a team if limited to facing lefties. While I don't view him as more than a third catcher, his .335/.390/.250 performance in 221 at-bats at AAA Ottawa this season also indicates latent offensive potential. Consider Machado decent roster filler if he earns a job as the platoon partner of a left-handed starting catcher, but don't acquire him unless you know he generally will not face right-handers.

27.		AB	H	BA	HR	RBI	SB	R	Pos
Jamie Burke		8	3	.375	0	2	0	0	C
CH White Sox		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
B:R    T:R	4x4:	0		0
2003 Age: 32	5x5:	-1		0

Please refer to our Post-2003 Prospect Review: Chicago(A) for my comments on Burke.

28.		AB	H	BA	HR	RBI	SB	R	Pos
Tom Prince		48	10	.208	2	6	1	5	C
MIN/KC		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
B:R    T:R	4x4:	-1		0		-1
2003 Age: 39	5x5:	-1		0		-1		1

Once again, Prince contributed just enough against left-handed hitters to warrant a roster spot for teams desperate for a veteran backup. Now, the fact he hasn't exceeded a .238 average since 1996 should keep most fantasy owners from consider him, but if he finds a job in a hitters' park, thereby allowing him to play through his 40th birthday next August, he might not hurt you as short-term roster filler.

29.		AB	H	BA	HR	RBI	SB	R	Pos
Josh Paul		23	6	.261	0	4	0	6	C
CHW/CHC		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
B:R    T:R	4x4:	-1		0		0		3
2003 Age: 28	5x5:	-1		0		-1		3

I suspect Paul will remain with the Cubs next season, likely starting at AAA Iowa given the organization's lack of depth behind the plate. Unfortunately, as he failed to post even a .300 OBP in the minors this season, he isn't a reliable third catcher from an offensive standpoint. He certainly doesn't belong on any fantasy team.

30.		AB	H	BA	HR	RBI	SB	R	Pos
Geronimo Gil		169	40	.237	3	16	0	22	C
BAL Orioles		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
B:R    T:R	4x4:	-1		0		-1		2
2003 Age: 28	5x5:	0		0		0		3

Gil lost his starting job to Brook Fordyce and eventually his roster spot this year, but a few weeks spent pounding the ball at AAA Ottawa, compiling a .351/.386/.448 in 134 at-bats in the minors, earned him a September recall. Somewhat surprisingly, Gil's minor league numbers might better represent his current skills level than his .237/.299/.314 with the Orioles. His walk rate(.06 '02; .07 '03), contact rate(.79 '02; .80 '03), G-F(1.50 '02; 1.26 '03), and #P/PA(3.56 '02; 3.95 '03) all improved, and Gil's continued production against left-handers certainly merits him a spot in the majors. Even if Baltimore signs a top starter like IRod or Javy Lopez, Gil belongs on their bench, and given his skills right now, I expect him to earn at least a few bucks of fantasy value next season and eventually find another starting job within the next few years.

31.		AB	H	BA	HR	RBI	SB	R	Pos
Michel Hernandez		4	1	.250	0	0	0	0	C
NY Yankees		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
B:R    T:R	4x4:	-1		0
2003 Age: 25	5x5:	-2		-1

Please refer to our Post-2003 Prospect Review: New York(A) for my comments on Hernandez.

32.		AB	H	BA	HR	RBI	SB	R	Pos
Ken Huckaby		11	2	.182	0	2	0	1	C
TOR Blue Jays		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
B:R    T:R	4x4:	-1		-1		-2		R
2003 Age: 32	5x5:	-2		-1		-1		2

Apparently the Rangers saw something in Huckaby that I don't as they signed him to a minor league deal a few days ago. In 285 big league at-bats, neither his .242/.265/.305 nor skills like a .03 walk rate and 2.41 G-F suggest he possesses much value. Perhaps they just want him a replace Gerald Laird at AAA Oklahoma; Huckaby's .292/.326/.378 in 267 at-bats for AAA Syracuse this season suggests he isn't a bad minor league player. However, nothing in his recent history suggests he belongs on an MLB roster, and fantasy players definitely should avoid him.

33.		AB	H	BA	HR	RBI	SB	R	Pos
A.J. Hinch		74	15	.203	3	11	0	7	C
DET Tigers		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
B:R    T:R	4x4:	-1		-1		0		1
2003 Age: 29	5x5:	-2		-1		0

Hinch's ground-fly ratio, now at a career-best .84 G-F, continues to drop, but with a career-worst 3.33 #P/PA, his plate discipline is disappearing even faster. While I recognize this year's Tigers weren't the best environment for a career rebirth, his performance in Detroit, coupled with a mediocre .259/.320/.416 at AAA Toledo, might push Hinch from the field to a front office faster than currently expected. He still retains decent power potential, but with his contact rate down to .76 from a .82 in 2002, Hinch no longer possesses the secondary skills needed to take advantage of his strength. Barring a rather shocking skill surge, keep him off your fantasy teams.

34.		AB	H	BA	HR	RBI	SB	R	Pos
Bill Haselman		3	0	.000	0	0	0	0	C
BOS Red Sox		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
B:R    T:R	4x4:	-1		-1		-2
2003 Age: 37	5x5:	-2		-1		-2

After a poor .225/.247/.311 performance at AAA Pawtucket, Haselman might not reach the majors again. Considering his diminished skills and increasing age, you shouldn't consider rostering him on fantasy teams even if he somehow appears on a free agent list one more time.

35.		AB	H	BA	HR	RBI	SB	R	Pos
Javier Valentin		135	30	.222	3	15	0	13	C
TB Devil Rays		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
B:S    T:R	4x4:	-1		-1		-3		1
2003 Age: 28	5x5:	-1		-1		-3		6

With Pete LaForest likely replacing Valentin as Tampa's second catcher, Valentin may not even receive a spring training invitation. Rather than building on a solid AAA performance in 2002 and previously decent skills, his patience vanished, resulting in a career-worst 3.42 #P/PA. A .77 contact rate also prevents him from taking advantage of a decent .87 G-F, so although Valentin appears capable of contributing to fantasy teams at some point in the future, I don't envision him accumulating positive value in 2004.

36.		AB	H	BA	HR	RBI	SB	R	Pos
Rob Bowen		10	1	.100	0	1	0	0	C
MIN Twins		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
B:S    T:R	4x4:	-2		-1		-2
2003 Age: 22	5x5:	-2		-1		-3

Please refer to our Post-2003 Prospect Review: Minnesota for my comments on Bowen.

37.		AB	H	BA	HR	RBI	SB	R	Pos
Pat Borders		14	2	.143	0	1	0	1	C
SEA Mariners		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
B:R    T:R	4x4:	-2		-1		-3
2003 Age: 40	5x5:	-2		-1		-3

Perhaps the departure of Pat Gillick as Seattle's GM will signal the end of the line for Borders. Of course, considering he also hit .314/.363/.536 and the made the International League All-Star team for AAA Tacoma, keeping him around isn't a terrible idea for the Mariners. While he likely isn't capable of extended contributions in the big leagues and belongs on no fantasy teams, we don't begrudge him a spot in the minors given Seattle's questionable catching depth and the benefits of his experience in helping young pitchers develop.

38.		AB	H	BA	HR	RBI	SB	R	Pos
Tom Gregorio		19	3	.158	0	2	0	1	C
ANA Angels		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
B:R    T:R	4x4:	-2		-1
2003 Age: 26	5x5:	-2		-1

Please refer to our Post-2003 Prospect Review: Anaheim for my comments on Gregorio.

39.		AB	H	BA	HR	RBI	SB	R	Pos
Chad Kreuter		18	2	.111	0	0	0	0	C
TEX Rangers		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
B:S    T:R	4x4:	-2		-1		-1
2003 Age: 39	5x5:	-3		-1		-1

Despite previous success as Chan Ho Park's personal catcher, Kreuter's career may be over due to his diminished offensive performance. He certainly isn't a viable fantasy option.

40.		AB	H	BA	HR	RBI	SB	R	Pos
Mark L. Johnson		27	3	.111	0	3	0	3	C
OAK Athletics		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
B:L    T:R	4x4:	-2		-1		-1
2003 Age: 28	5x5:	-3		-2		-1		2

Oakland may value plate discipline as much as any organization, however even they require position players to own a second skill besides an ability to draw walks. However, even considering his .228/.369/.364 performance in 162 at-bats for AAA Sacramento, Johnson still possesses enough talent to battle for bench jobs indefinitely. He owns a career ground-fly ratio of .97 in addition to his solid patience, so whenever Johnson boosts his contact rate over .80, he can contribute both in the big leagues and roto. Unfortunately, unless he lucks into a roster spot somewhere like Colorado, he doesn't look like a good option for 2004 teams.

41.		AB	H	BA	HR	RBI	SB	R	Pos
Brandon Inge		330	67	.203	8	30	4	32	C
DET Tigers		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
B:R    T:R	4x4:	-3		-2		-4		R
2003 Age: 26	5x5:	-2		-1		-3		2

Inge's .275/.327/.444 performance in 142 at-bats at AAA Toledo somehow convinced the Tigers he deserved a longer look as their starting catcher, so he appears likely to embark upon another near as a primary offensive sinkhole in Detroit's lineup. Yet, Inge only turns 27 next May. More importantly, his stunning .325/.364/.530 line in 83 September at-bats suggests some hidden talent. A 4.06 #P/PA and 1.16 G-F indicate he owns the basic skills necessary to repeat those stats, and even with a walk rate stuck at .07, a jump in his contact rate from .69 to .76 might precede a BA increase. He also at least appears capable of producing against left-handed pitchers on a regular basis. Although you won't find on any of my teams next year and his average will remain below the league mean indefinitely, anyone willing to ignore his BA should net double-digit homers and a half dozen steals.

42.		AB	H	BA	HR	RBI	SB	R	Pos
Jose Molina		114	21	.184	0	6	0	12	C
ANA Angels		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
B:R    T:R	4x4:	-4		-3		-1		1
2003 Age: 28	5x5:	-4		-2		-1

While Benji's younger brother won't keep Anaheim out of the 2004 playoffs by himself, Molina also doesn't deserve a big league roster spot any longer after walking once all season. His complete lack of primary or secondary offensive skills makes him useless for fantasy teams, so even if he remains an Angel due to the team's lack of superior options, don't acquire him even if a temporary rise in BA makes him appear acceptable short-term roster filler.

43.		AB	H	BA	HR	RBI	SB	R	Pos
Matt Walbeck		138	24	.174	1	6	0	11	C
DET Tigers		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
B:S    T:R	4x4:	-5		-3		-2
2003 Age: 33	5x5:	-5		-3		-2

After one last season of posting terrible offensive numbers, Walbeck retired to begin his managerial career as A West Michigan(Mid), a Detroit affiliate. Expect to see him on a coaching staff by the end of the decade and interviewing for a big league manager's spot soon thereafter.

44.		AB	H	BA	HR	RBI	SB	R	Pos
Kevin Cash		106	15	.142	1	8	0	10	C
TOR Blue Jays		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
B:R    T:R	4x4:	-6		-4		-2		1
2003 Age: 25	5x5:	-5		-3		-2		R

Please refer to our Post-2003 Prospect Review: Toronto for my comments on Cash.

'03 Catcher Week continues tomorrow, featuring Minor League Free Agent and AAA/AA Catchers in the American League.

Today's Fantasy Rx:Other than Geronimo Gil, none of the veterans on today's list should merit serious consideration in your spring drafts. Rookies Gerald Laird, Michel Hernandez, Rob Bowen, and even Kevin Cash likely deserve roster spots in most leagues, although only Laird possesses a real chance of exceeding $5 in 2004 DV. While Brandon Inge's August performance and continued starting spot raises his profile to a greater degree than his skills warrant, avoid him since he only offers maybe five bucks of upside and cost post a value worse than $-5 barring dramatic development at the plate.