Today's Fantasy Rx

Welcome to Rotohelp's Third Annual Catcher Week! As in the past two years, having not yet found another good post-season wrap-up of each position that includes specific dollar values, we're again writing our own.

Beginning today with catchers, I'll spend most of each of the next several weeks reviewing each position in ascending order from those with the least depth, like catcher and shortstop, to those with the most variety, such as outfielders, starting pitchers, and relief pitchers.

The articles will generally appear in the following order:
Monday: American Leaguers with Positive Draft Value.
Tuesday: American Leaguers without Positive Draft Value.
Wednesday: AL AAA players, AA players, and minor league free agents.
Thursday: National Leaguers with Positive Draft Value.
Friday: More National Leaguers with Positive Draft Value.
Saturday: National Leaguers without Positive Draft Value.
Sunday: NL AAA players, AA players, and minor league free agents.

Although we realize that not every fantasy participant requires all the specifics included in the following profiles, we hope to provide anyone interested with a valuable tool in analyzing past history to improve future performance.

American League Catchers with Positive Draft Value

Quick Key to the tables:
AB = At-bats.  H = Hits.  BA = Batting Average.  HR= Home Runs.
RBI = Runs Batted In.  SB = Stolen Bases.  R = Runs.  B = Bats.  T = Throws.
Pos = Position qualification based on 20 appearances or max. # of games in 2003.
2003 Age = Player's Age as of October 1, 2003.
4x4 = BA, HR, RBI, and SB in 12-team, $260 leagues with 23-man rosters.
5x5 = BA, HR, RBI, SB, and R in 12-team, $260 leagues with 23-man rosters.
DV = Draft Value (The price a player earned under a 70/30 hitting/pitching split).
AV = Actual Value (The price a player earned under a 50/50 hitting/pitching split).
Rotohelp = 2003 Rotohelp Predicted Draft Value.
LABR/Tout = 2003 Expert League prices; LABR for 4x4. Tout Wars for 5x5.

Average league worst BA, ERA, and WHIP based on data compiled from TQ Stats.

Players are ranked in order from the highest draft value in a 4x4 league to the lowest. As the majority of fantasy leagues allow you to keep anyone traded to the other league, all players are listed in the league where they began the season.

1.		AB	H	BA	HR	RBI	SB	R	Pos
A.J. Pierzynski		487	152	.312	11	74	3	63	C
MIN Twins		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
B:L    T:R	4x4:	20		14		6		10
2003 Age: 26	5x5:	19		14		7		9

Approaching his 27th birthday this December, Pierzynski posted his best performance thus far in the third full season of his career. He hit better in the second half and on the road, and while he declined against left-handers, he still managed a .785 OPS against southpaws. His contact rate improved from .86 to .89, his walk rate jumped from a terrible .03 to a mildly acceptable .05 mark, and both a 3.25 #P/PA and 1.51 G-F are better than what he compiled in 2002. Pierzynski led all AL catchers in standard roto categories, and now he'll head to PNC Park, where his batting average almost certainly will drop below .300, and even a couple series a year in Coors won't keep his homer total in double digits without skill growth. Now, I realize that nearly his skills improved this year, but I don't believe he can maintain these numbers in such a radically different environment. Anything other than a drop to near $10 in fantasy value will surprise me.

2.		AB	H	BA	HR	RBI	SB	R	Pos
Jorge Posada		481	135	.281	30	101	2	83	C
NY Yankees		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
B:S    T:R	4x4:	19		14		14		18
2003 Age: 32	5x5:	19		14		14		19

At age 32, Posada enjoyed perhaps his finest season thanks to combining a .320/.409/.567 after the All-Star Break with a solid first half. Not only did his #P/PA remained locked between 3.90 and 4.00 for the fifth straight season and his ground-fly ratio held between 1.11 and 1.21 for the fourth straight year, his walk rate jumped from .16 to .19 and his contact rate increased from .72 to .77. These skill improvements indicate the possibility he could approach a .290/35/115 performance in 2004, however if the Yankees acquire an elite right fielder, thereby pushing current Yankees down in the order, Posada will lose the at-bats necessary to exceed this year's stats. As his increasing age also increases the risk of injury, employing an increasingly conservative approach in bidding on Posada is a good idea.

3.		AB	H	BA	HR	RBI	SB	R	Pos
Jason Varitek		451	123	.273	25	85	3	63	C
BOS Red Sox		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
B:S    T:R	4x4:	15		11		8		9
2003 Age: 31	5x5:	15		11		9		12

The development of Kelly Shoppach could force out Varitek in a year, however I doubt Boston will change catchers before 2005. Even if Varitek's contact rate, now at .76, has fallen in each season since he won the Red Sox starting job, he still possesses very good power, solid plate patience, and excellent defensive skills. While I expect his stats will join most of his teammates in decreasing following their record-setting 2003 season, Varitek will remain one of the AL's top catchers. Unfortunately, I don't envision him as a particularly good buy since a likely BA decrease could drop his value into single digits, but you certainly should keep him if you already own him anywhere around $10.

4.		AB	H	BA	HR	RBI	SB	R	Pos
Greg Myers		329	101	.307	15	52	0	51	C
TOR Blue Jays		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
B:L    T:R	4x4:	13		10		-1		1
2003 Age: 37	5x5:	13		9		-1

Although his 2003 season wasn't completely out of line with his career numbers, Myers simply does not own the skills necessary to repeat this performance. Even if he remains healthy for more than 250 at-bats, neither an abrupt jump in his contact rate nor his unsupported power production should continue. Of course, while a .462 September OPS kept his second-half mark under .700, he still managed an .800+ OPS in every other month, indicating a strong echo of these numbers isn't unreasonable. Stop bidding around $5 for him under most circumstances, then just be happy if he contributes stats worth a few bucks of profit.

5.		AB	H	BA	HR	RBI	SB	R	Pos
Ramon Hernandez		483	132	.273	21	78	0	70	C
OAK Athletics		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
B:R    T:R	4x4:	13		9		4		9
2003 Age: 27	5x5:	13		10		5		9

Hernandez's significant rebound appears rather unsupported given his career-worst marks of a .07 walk rate and .84 contact rate. Of course, considering his ground-fly ratio dropped from 1.45 in each of the last two seasons to only 1.09 in 2003, a 141 point surge in his slugging percentage isn't that surprising. Yet his decreasing plate discipline concerns me, and an abrupt shift to a reverse platoon split, despite indicating some talent at hitting right-handers, suggests we won't see a 30/100 season until at least 2005. Expect Hernandez's average to plummet no less than 20 points, especially if he gets dealt to the Padres as rumored, making any bidding into double digits quite risky without several excellent BA sources elsewhere on your roster.

6.		AB	H	BA	HR	RBI	SB	R	Pos
Bengie Molina		409	115	.281	14	71	1	37	C
ANA Angels		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
B:R    T:R	4x4:	12		9		3		4
2003 Age: 29	5x5:	11		8		3		8

As Jeff Mathis requires at least one more year of seasoning, expect Molina to spend one more year with the Angeles before both Molina brothers leave town. He should receive significant interest on the trade market as his consistent .92 contact rate and rediscovered power potential give him as much offensive upside as any second tier catcher, and two consecutive gold gloves illustrate his defensive worth. However, while his triple crown stats this season were identical to his numbers in 2000, a general decrease in his plate discipline leaves him with slightly less value, a situation that also forecasts mild regression in 2004. A severe platoon split also suggests his batting average would rise if given a platoon partner, but his defense will keep him in the lineup on a daily basis, thereby limiting his roto upside. I certainly wouldn't avoid him, but I see much more upside in drafting Mathis while allowing another owner to overpay for Molina and the risk inherent in rostering someone who missed September due to a broken arm.

7.		AB	H	BA	HR	RBI	SB	R	Pos
Matthew LeCroy		345	99	.287	17	64	0	39	C/D
MIN Twins		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
B:R    T:R	4x4:	12		9		9		2
2003 Age: 27	5x5:	11		8		9		4

Finally given the relatively regular playing time he earned three years ago, LeCroy he posted a career-best 3.81 #P/PA while displaying only a negligible platoon split. His .07 walk rate, .76 contact rate, and .99 G-F aren't great marks, but the latter two marks indicate consistent 20+ HR potential. More importantly, the trade of A.J. Pierzynski virtually insures that LeCroy will remain no worse than Joe Mauer's backup, suggesting that LeCroy will continue to qualify at catcher indefinitely. As I view his 2003 stats as a baseline for what he might accomplish if given 500 at-bats batting cleanup, bidding into the teens for LeCroy seems quite reasonable even if his BA could slip a dozen or more points due to his questionable plate discipline.

8.		AB	H	BA	HR	RBI	SB	R	Pos
Brook Fordyce		348	95	.273	6	31	2	28	C
BAL Orioles		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
B:R    T:R	4x4:	6		5		-2
2003 Age: 33	5x5:	6		4		-2

Fordyce unexpectedly compiled the most at-bats of his career after a weak performance by Geronimo Gil forced a change at starting catcher for Baltimore. While Fordyce certainly didn't excel, the consistent playing time led to his ground-fly ratio returning below 1.30 after he posted a 2.07 mark in 2002. A career-best .87 contact rate helped boost his average, so even though he struggled to a .614 OPS against right-handers, an .895 mark against lefties should insure he receives a guaranteed contract this winter. He may lack the skills to merit an everyday job, but Fordyce looks like a good target to a team bargain-shopping for an inexpensively yet effective platoon.

9.		AB	H	BA	HR	RBI	SB	R	Pos
Toby Hall		463	117	.253	12	47	0	50	C
TB Devil Rays		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
B:R    T:R	4x4:	4		3		9		11
2003 Age: 27	5x5:	5		4		10		12

As Hall declined in the second half and showed little obvious development, Tampa likely will let Hall and Pete LaForest compete for the starting job next spring. Although LaForest looks ready to emerge as a catching force, Hall showed enough skill development to warrant additional consideration from fantasy owners. With a contact rate lodged at .91, slowly increasing plate patience, and a ground-fly ratio that dropped from 1.03 in 2002 to .77, Hall looks ready to jump to 20 homers and 70 RBI if given another 450 at-bats. If he wins a full-time job in spring training, Hall's potential warrants one more year of bidding into double-digits, however exercise some caution in considering him as his best window of opportunity began closing this year.

10.		AB	H	BA	HR	RBI	SB	R	Pos
Einar Diaz		334	86	.257	4	35	3	30	C
TEX Rangers		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
B:R    T:R	4x4:	4		3		7		1
2003 Age: 30	5x5:	4		3		6		6

Due to Diaz's contract, he almost certainly will enter spring training as the Rangers' primary starter. Gerald Laird and a AAAA free agent or two could win roster spots, however Diaz's skills still suggest the possibility he can earn double-digit value, particularly when playing home games in Arlington. Diaz's ground-fly ratio returned back under 1.20 to 1.11 after a season at 1.48, and with his contact rate remaining over .90, he should exceed his career-high of four homers, a mark which he's reached three times. Unfortunately, the continued erosion of his plate patience indicates he isn't a long-term solution for any franchise, but he certainly shouldn't hurt you in 2004 at any price in the mid-single digits.

11.		AB	H	BA	HR	RBI	SB	R	Pos
Victor Martinez		159	46	.289	1	16	1	15	C
CLE Indians		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
B:S    T:R	4x4:	3		2		1		7
2003 Age: 24	5x5:	3		2		0		9

Martinez earned a mid-season promotion after posting a .328/.395/.474 with 7 HR, 45 RBI, 42 R, 3/8 SB%, and a 26:32 BB:K in 274 at-bats at AAA Buffalo(IL). While neither his 3.56 #P/PA nor a 1.75 G-F with Cleveland is overly promising, his .08 walk rate and .88 contact rate almost guarantee an above-average BA after years of impressive minor league numbers. Since Martinez almost certainly will see no less than 350 at-bats with a .280+ batting average, any quantitative contribution is a bonus. Of course, he easily could hit .300 in 450 at-bats, thus earning the double-digit price you'll need to pay to acquire his services in single-season auctions. Given his consistently excellent contact rate, I see no reason to doubt his immediate fantasy potential, making any bid in the $10-15 range rather reasonable assuming the Indians don't change their purported plan to start him regularly.

12.		AB	H	BA	HR	RBI	SB	R	Pos
Sandy Alomar, Jr.		194	52	.268	5	26	0	22	C
CH White Sox		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
B:R    T:R	4x4:	3		2		2		1
2003 Age: 38	5x5:	3		2		3		7

With his consistent reverse platoon split and perpetual health questions, Alomar is nothing more than a Dollar Days option for owners unable to secure catchers with more upside. He shouldn't hurt you, especially if he returns to Chicago as expected, but even expecting him to repeat his 2003 stats is rather optimistic. Alomar won't reach $5 under almost any circumstances, so only roster him if necessary.

13.		AB	H	BA	HR	RBI	SB	R	Pos
Tom Wilson		256	66	.258	5	35	0	37	C
TOR Blue Jays		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
B:R    T:R	4x4:	3		2		2		2
2003 Age: 32	5x5:	3		3		2		2

Forcing Wilson to compete for a job in spring training is a rather farcical notion, so I hope Toronto just allows Wilson and Greg Myers to platoon, relegating Kevin Cash and Guillermo Quiroz to the minors until either player demonstrates the ability to post an .800+ OPS. While Myers crushed right-handers in 2003, Wilson now owns a career .311/.396/.451 line against left-handers, a performance that merits a big league platoon job indefinitely. His 4.30 #P/PA and .97 G-F similarly illustrates his offensive aptitude, and only his poor .69 contact rate keeps him from deserving a full-time job. I know he struggled badly in the second half, however as long as Toronto looks likely to limit his at-bats against right-handers, Wilson is a safe bet up to the mid-single digits.

14.		AB	H	BA	HR	RBI	SB	R	Pos
Adam Melhuse		77	23	.299	5	14	0	13	C
OAK Athletics		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
B:S    T:R	4x4:	3		2		-2
2003 Age: 31	5x5:	2		2		-2

Melhuse posted very similar skills in almost identical playing time in 2001 with Colorado, yet a drop from a 1.93 G-F to a .68 mark over the last two years gave Melhuse enough power potential to more than double his OPS with the Rockies. Although I don't envision him repeating his .299/.372/.584 performance in more consistent playing time, he also owns a solid skill history that suggests the ability to echo these stats over a full season. Bidding two bucks on Melhuse for every 75 at-bats you expect him to receive is a decent plan, suggesting a probable draft price near $5 as long as he remains a reserve.

15.		AB	H	BA	HR	RBI	SB	R	Pos
Miguel Olivo		317	75	.237	6	27	6	37	C
CH White Sox		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
B:R    T:R	4x4:	3		2		5		7
2003 Age: 25	5x5:	3		2		5		7

Double-promoted to the majors without the necessary development time, Olivo predictably imploded, displaying little of the promise his AA numbers suggested. Although neither his 3.77 #P/PA nor a 1.23 G-F are terrible marks, his .06 walk rate and .75 contact rate don't demonstrate much upside even given the benefits of hitting in the White Sox lineup. Olivo's .302/.315/.547 performance against southpaws at least suggests some value, however until his base batting skills improve, I wouldn't target him unless absolutely desperate for stolen bases.

16.		AB	H	BA	HR	RBI	SB	R	Pos
Doug Mirabelli		163	42	.258	6	18	0	23	C
BOS Red Sox		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
B:R    T:R	4x4:	2		2		1		1
2003 Age: 32	5x5:	2		2		1

Jason Varitek's breakout season kept Mirabelli from seeing many at-bats beyond games involving Tim Wakefield. With Wakefield remaining in Boston, Mirabelli similarly should return for another season even if most of his skills regressed to some extent. While he isn't a bad Dollar Days buy, don't target Mirabelli in 2004.

17.		AB	H	BA	HR	RBI	SB	R	Pos
Mike DiFelice		189	48	.254	3	25	1	29	C
KC Royals		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
B:R    T:R	4x4:	2		1		-2
2003 Age: 34	5x5:	2		2		-2		4

Like a few dozen other big league backups and AAAA catchers, DeFelice's success against left-handers merits him consideration for a platoon or bench job every spring. Of course, DeFelice doesn't own batting skills that suggest much upside, his performance declined outside of the AL's best hitter's park this year, and his relative cost makes a minor league veteran a better target both for major league teams and fantasy owners. Even signing with the Rockies wouldn't make DeFelice particularly intriguing to me given his unimpressive history in the majors.

18.		AB	H	BA	HR	RBI	SB	R	Pos
Josh Bard		303	74	.244	8	36	0	25	C
CLE Indians		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
B:S    T:R	4x4:	2		1		5		3
2003 Age: 25	5x5:	2		2		5		3

After losing his starting job to Victor Martinez, Bard headed to AAA Buffalo(IL), where he posted a .330/.408/.522 with 5 HR, 21 RBI, 14 R, 1/3 SB%, and a 14:17 BB:K in 115 at-bats. This impressive performance hopefully secured his future as a big league starter since I definitely believe he owns the skills necessary to succeed in regular playing time. His excellent defense even is keeping him in Cleveland since the Indians seem willing to push Martinez to a 1B/DH. Yet Martinez owns more overall offensive upside, making Bard trade bait for any one of the two dozen teams looking for a long-term solution at catcher. Bard won't hurt you for a couple of bucks, and if he goes to another AL team within the next year or two, or even wins back the Indians' catching job, he could post double-digit roto value as soon as 2005.

19.		AB	H	BA	HR	RBI	SB	R	Pos
John Flaherty		105	28	.267	4	14	0	16	C
NY Yankees		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
B:R    T:R	4x4:	1		1		-1
2003 Age: 35	5x5:	1		1		-1

Between increased aggressiveness and the benefits of hitting in the Yankees' lineup, Flaherty somehow managed a career-best OPS of .754. He won't repeat that performance. I expect Flaherty to earn a backup job on some catching-desperate team, however his weak hitting skills and uncertain playing time make him a poor fantasy option as anything more than occasional roster filler.

20.		AB	H	BA	HR	RBI	SB	R	Pos
Tim Laker		162	39	.241	3	21	2	17	C
CLE Indians		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
B:R    T:R	4x4:	1		1		-2
2003 Age: 33	5x5:	1		1		-2

Even though both Victor Martinez and Josh Bard impressed down the stretch, Cleveland exercised Laker's 2004 option and likely will keep him as a third catcher. In years where he accumulated at least 30 at-bats, Laker hasn't posted a BA higher than his 2003 mark. With no real skill development or a helpful platoon split, Laker also will be lucky to remain on a big league roster much longer. He doesn't belong on successful fantasy teams.

21.		AB	H	BA	HR	RBI	SB	R	Pos
Ben Davis		246	58	.236	6	42	0	25	C
SEA Mariners		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
B:S    T:R	4x4:	1		1		4		6
2003 Age: 26	5x5:	1		1		4		7

Seattle's decision to let Davis rot on the bench for the last two years rather than sit the declining Dan Wilson might keep Davis from ever enjoying more than an occasional season of any productivity. While Davis never owned great plate discipline, his formerly respectable patience eroded upon joining the American League, and his power potential similarly declined this year. I still believe he can emerge as a relatively consistent double-digit performer, but he certainly needs a change of scenery. Don't bid more than a couple bucks on him until he leaves the Mariners.

22.		AB	H	BA	HR	RBI	SB	R	Pos
Brent Mayne		372	91	.245	6	36	0	39	C
KC Royals		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
B:L    T:R	4x4:	1		1		0		1
2003 Age: 35	5x5:	2		2		1		5

Two years of a starting job in the AL's best hitters' park didn't result in Mayne accumulating more than a couple bucks of fantasy value, so unless you owned his .295/.358/.541 April performance and then immediately dumped him, Mayne wasn't even useful as roster filler. As his complete lack of skill development also suggests he doesn't deserve more than a part-time role in 2004, avoid Mayne barring the highly unlikely return of his formerly solid plate discipline.

23.		AB	H	BA	HR	RBI	SB	R	Pos
Dan Wilson		316	76	.241	4	43	0	32	C
SEA Mariners		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
B:R    T:R	4x4:	1		1		1		4
2003 Age: 34	5x5:	1		1		1		4

While Wilson's skill progression suggests we'll see one more rebound from him, I don't expect his average to climb to a point where he'll reach double-digit value. He likely will struggle to reach even five bucks of fantasy value again as playing in a poor hitters' park continues to hurt his overall production. I see no reason to gamble more than a couple bucks on Wilson in 2004.

'03 Catcher Week continues tomorrow, featuring American Leaguers without PDV.

Today's Fantasy Rx:With nearly 20 AL catchers earning $2 or more this year, settling for two $1 catchers wasn't a horrible idea this year. However, as you still gain a significant advantage over other owners by rostering more productive backstops, paying the going rate for one, if not two, of the superior catchers remains a preferable option as long as you don't need to severely overpay for them.