Today's Fantasy Rx

Note: For those of you unfamiliar with FAAB, each team normally begins with $100 to spend throughout the year on all free agent pickups. Most injury replacements or speculative picks go for a buck or two, hot starters go for $5-$10, top prospects go in the $10-$30 range, and we've seen $90+ bids on top players traded into the league.

Arizona: Edgar Gonzalez, 20, RH Starter
2-1 on a 9:4 K:BB in 12 IP over 2 GS(3G)
with 21 H, 1 HR, a 17-11 G-F, and a 5.25 ERA for Arizona.
8-7 on a 69:28 K:BB in 129.2 IP over 19 GS(20G)
with 126 H, 4 HR, and a 3.75 ERA for AAA Tucson(PCL).
2-2 on a 30:11 K:BB in 36 IP over 6 GS
with 40 H, 1 HR, and a 3.50 ERA for AA El Paso(TL).

Although we don't expect Gonzalez to appear more than once a week this month for the Diamondbacks, he remains a top candidate for a 2004 Arizona rotation in which Randy Johnson and Brandon Webb appear the only certain starters. A 34 QA log in two June starts, in conjunction with consistently excellent control at all four levels of full-season ball, indicates he possesses the talent necessary to immediately succeed in the majors. Of course, I doubt he'll develop into a double-digit roto value until at least 2005, but he shouldn't hurt you this month if you need to leave him active and could emerge as an excellent keeper if you can FAAB him at a low salary now.

Previously discussed 2003 NL pitching prospects: May: Jose Valverde; June: Chris Capuano; July: Brian Bruney; August: John Patterson.

Atlanta: Buddy Hernandez, 24, RH Reliever
4-3 and 4 Saves on an 82:31 K:BB in 71 IP over 53 G
with 65 H, 2 HR, and a 3.42 ERA for AAA Richmond(IL).

The Braves soon should promote Hernandez to add depth to their injury-depleted bullpen, yet I also won't be surprised if they again don't care if he's claimed in the Rule 5 draft. While these numbers aren't as impressive as the 1.22 ERA, 12.4 K/9, and 3.5 BB/9 walk rate he posted at AA Greenville in 2002, the 5'9" Hernandez still managed a 10.4 K/9 and 3.9 BB/9, ratios that suggest he should succeed immediately in the majors. His occasional control problems don't really worry me given his consistent dominance, however almost all owners still should ignore Hernandez as I have no idea where he'll break camp next spring.

Previously discussed 2003 NL pitching prospects: May: Travis Phelps; June: Andy Pratt; July: Jason Marquis; August: Will Cunnane; .

Chicago Cubs: Sergio Mitre, 22, RH Starter
0-1 on a 0:3 K:BB in 3.2 IP over 1 GS
with 10 H, 1 HR, a 12-7 G-F, and a 19.64 ERA for Chicago(N).
7-9 on a 128:41 K:BB in 145.2 IP over 24 GS(25G)
with 162 H, 6 HR, and a 3.34 ERA for AA West Tenn(SL).

Mitre barely registered on the Cubs' prospect radar prior to this season, but a solid AA season earned him July start in Atlanta since the Cubs didn't want either Juan Cruz or Todd Wellemeyer starting on short rest. Although the Braves demolished Mitre, he continued excelling after returning to West Tenn, and his 7.9 K/9, 2.5 BB/9, and .4 HR/9 all suggest he belongs in any discussion of the club's more prepared pitching prospects. Chicago will use him as a mop-up man this month, however while he could spend next season at AAA, I hope the Cubs send him elsewhere this winter as he could challenge for a rotation spot on some teams and Chicago obviously won't give him man starting chances. Of course, the likelihood of him remaining with his current club means you should ignore Mitre for now as he shouldn't see too much time in the majors in 2004.

Previously discussed 2003 NL pitching prospects: May: Rod Beck; June: Wilton Chavez; July: Matt Bruback; August: Phil Norton.

Cincinnati: Josh Hall, 22, RH Starter
0-0 on a 7:5 K:BB in 10 IP over 2 GS(3G)
with 15 H, 2 HR, an 18-12 G-F, and a 9.00 ERA for Cincinnati.
8-10 on a 114:53 K:BB in 153 IP over 25 GS(26G)
with 152 H, 9 HR, and a 3.47 ERA for AA Chattanooga(SL).

Last season Hall dominated the California League through seven starts before posting a 7-8 record and a 3.75 ERA on a 116:50 K:BB in 132 IP for Chattanooga; he also nearly headed to Texas before Kenny Rogers invoked his no-trade clause to stay away from the Reds. Unfortunately Hall failed to improve this year as a slight drop in his walk rate barely offset a mild walk rate improvement. The good news is that he demonstrated decent all-around skills in a start against San Francisco in August, and since rejoining the team a few days ago, he struggled in a bullpen appearance but posted a 5:1 K:BB and 8-4 G-F in 4 innings against a hot Pirates' club. As long as his defense keeps his hit rate around 9.0 H/9, Hall appears to own the skills necessary to pitch effectively in the majors even while skipping AAA. A minimum FAAB bid might net you a nice return if you can afford the qualitative risk inherent in drafting anyone pitching home games in the GAB.

Previously discussed 2003 NL pitching prospects: May: Lance Davis; June: Jose Acevedo; July: John Bale; August: Seth Etherton.

Colorado: Chris Gissell, 25, RH Swingman
8-4 and 1 Save on an 82:35 K:BB in 10 GS(38G)
with 96 H, 8 HR, and a 3.55 ERA for AAA Colorado Springs(PCL).

Outside of Miller, Young, Vance, and everyone who spent much of the year in the majors, I don't see any obvious prospects in the upper levels of the system. Gissell, who likely will depart as a minor league free agent in a couple weeks, owns the best combination of skills on the Sky Sox. Although he could succeed as a starter with more development time, he appears ready to pitch effectively out of the bullpen now. A 6.8 K/9, 2.9 BB/9, and .7 HR/9 all indicate a good chance of success in the right environment, and you should ignore him now since Coors obviously doesn't meet that standard, he merits a look in the majors next season.

Previously discussed 2003 NL pitching prospects: May: Jason Young; June: Matt J. Miller; July: Brad Clontz; August: Cory Vance.

Florida: Todd Moser, 26, LH Starter
6-4 on a 78:29 K:BB in 97.2 IP over 18 GS
with 107 H, 8 HR, and a 3.41 ERA for AA Carolina(TL).
3-0 on a 24:7 K:BB in 30 IP over 5 GS
with 25 H, 2 HR, and a 1.50 ERA for A+ Jupiter(FSL).

I don't know why the Marlins sent Moser back to Jupiter after he compiled a 70:12 K:BB in 78 IP there a year ago, but they at least promoted him after another five dominant starts. He failed to maintain his excellent ratios at Carolina, however he displayed enough across-the-board skill to warrant a long look in Spring Training. Moser's excellent skill history also makes him a logical Rule 5 pick, although he obviously wouldn't possess much roto value as a lefty reliever. Of course, while I like his upside a lot, you still should ignore him if Florida requires his services later in the month. Previously discussed 2003 NL pitching prospects: May: Doug Bochtler; June: Scott Sanders; July: Sean Bergman; August: Justin Wayne.

Houston: Kirk Bullinger, 33, RH Reliever
0-0 on a 1:0 K:BB in 1.2 IP over 2 G
with 0 H, 0 HR, a 2-2 G-F, and a 0.00 ERA for Houston.
3-3 and 20 Saves on a 46:14 K:BB in 65 IP over 55 G
with 56 H, 3 HR, and a 1.94 ERA for AAA New Orleans(PCL).

Somehow Bullinger still qualifies as a rookie despite 12 seasons in the minors while demonstrating mostly excellent skills and three previous cups-of-coffee, and he probably will retain that status regardless of any success this month. Last season Bullinger posted a 2.75 ERA on a 46:11 K:BB in 75 IP at New Orleans, so his dominance continues improving even as he enters his mid-30s. I see nothing at all wrong with his skills and remain convinced that only scout prejudice keeps him out of the majors. So feel free to FAAB him for a buck if you're desperate for roster filler as he should post decent numbers even in Minute Maid.

Previously discussed 2003 NL pitching prospects: May: Jonathan Johnson; June: Rodrigo Rosario; July: Rob Stanifer; August: Jared Fernandez.

Los Angeles: Edwin Jackson, 20, RH Starter
1-0 on a 4:0 K:BB in 6 IP over 1 GS
with 4 H, 0 HR, a 6-9 G-F, and a 1.50 ERA for Los Angeles.
7-7 on a 157:53 K:BB in 148.1 IP over 27 GS
with 121 H, 9 HR, and a 3.70 ERA for AA Jacksonville(SL).

Jackson turned 20 two days ago as he beat the almost-40 Randy Johnson in his big league debut. He posted excellent qualitative marks in two years of A-ball, but he emerged as one of baseball's best pitching prospects thanks to improving his strikeout rate and maintaining his walk rate while skipping High-A. Jackson's effectiveness against the Diamondbacks likely places him into competition for a rotation slot next spring, and given his obvious skill, I see no reason not to FAAB him now as he should coast to double-digit value when he breaks camp in the majors.

Previously discussed 2003 NL pitching prospects: May: Steve Colyer; June: Wilson Alvarez; July: Victor Alvarez; August: Joel Hanrahan.

Milwaukee: Luis Martinez, 23, LH Starter
0-1 on a 3:12 K:BB in 9 IP over 2 GS
with 11 H, 0 HR, a 13-10 G-F, and a 6.00 ERA for Milwaukee.
4-0 on a 46:19 K:BB in 45.2 IP over 7 GS
with 37 H, 0 HR, and a .99 ERA for AAA Indianapolis(IL).
8-5 on a 116:54 K:BB in 115 IP over 20 GS
with 93 H, 4 HR, and a 2.58 ERA for AA Huntsville(SL).

While Milwaukee nearly promoted Martinez to the majors six weeks ago, his outright dominance at AAA essentially should secure him a rotation spot heading into 2004. The only problem is his walk rate; he posted a 3.7 BB/9 at Indianapolis after compiling a 4.2 mark at Hunstville, and his pre-2003 career rate of 6.6 BB/9 obviously is unacceptable. I hope he's just tired after easily reaching a career-high in innings, so disregard his poor performance in Milwaukee thus far and hope that a few bucks of FAAB now will net you a solid starter for next season.

Previously discussed 2003 NL pitching prospects: May: Danny L. Kolb; June: Pasqual Coco; July: Ben Ford; August: Doug Davis.

Montreal: Jose Mercedes, 22, RH Starter
0-0 on a 2:4 K:BB in 2.1 IP over 2 G
with 0 H, 0 HR, a 2-3 G-F, and a 0.00 ERA for Montreal.
14-6 on a 114:53 K:BB in 160 IP over 22 GS
with 172 H, 11 HR, and a 3.71 ERA for I Saltillo(Mex).

The Expos signed him a week ago following the close of the Mexican League, and his addition to the Expos' bullpen should be the last roster move of the year for Montreal since budgetary restrictions appears likely to keep the team from adding needed bench help. Mercedes pitched fairly well in the Mexican League, however none of his skills look particularly good and even a move to relief won't improve his dominance significantly. As Montreal also heads back to Puerto Rico in the near future, you definitely should ignore Mercedes this year.

Previously discussed 2003 NL pitching prospects: May: Julio Manon; June: Eric Knott; July: Britt Reames; August: Scott Downs.

New York Mets: Edwin Almonte, 26, RH Reliever
0-0 on a 7:5 K:BB in 11.1 IP over 12 G
with 21 H, 3 HR, a 4.67 G-F, and an 11.12 ERA for New York(N).
3-7 and 20 Saves on a 38:20 K:BB in 51.2 IP over 46 G
with 61 H, 6 HR, and a 5.40 ERA between AAA Charlotte(IL) and AAA Norfolk(IL).

He owned a 6.88 ERA in 34 innings at Charlotte this year, but the move to Norfolk apparently fixed his problem as Almonte compiled a 2.55 ERA on a 14:6 K:BB in 17.2 IP with 16 H and 0 HR allowed after changing organizations. I suspect he wasn't pleased that Chicago opted to sign Rick White last winter instead of giving him the promotion he deserved after posting a 2.24 ERA on a 56:12 K:BB in 60 IP at Charlotte in 2002. While Almonte hasn't impressed in two stints with the Mets this year, his nearly unbelievable groundball rate suggest the elevated homer rate is a fluke, and he belongs in the New York bullpen through the foreseeable future. Spending a few bucks of FAAB on Almonte appears wise in many leagues considering he should contribute helpful qualitative numbers and compete for save opportunities.

Previously discussed 2003 NL pitching prospects: May: Aaron Heilman; June: Jason Roach; July: Orber Moreno; August: Grant Roberts.

Philadelphia: Dan Giese, 26, RH Reliever
2-0 on a 49:10 K:BB in 48.1 IP over 34 G
with 37 H, 8 HR, and a 3.17 ERA for AAA Scranton/Wilkes-Barre(IL).
1-0 on a 6:3 K:BB in 6 IP over 3 G
with 12 H, 2 HR, and a 13.50 ERA for AAA Portland(PCL).
2-1 and 1 Save on a 16:1 K:BB in 12.1 IP over 9 G
with 8 H, 1 HR, and a 1.46 ERA for AA Reading(EL).
1-0 on 4:0 K:BB in 4 IP over 2 G
with 1 H, 1 HR, and a 2.25 ERA for AA Mobile(SL).

I don't know why San Diego abruptly gave up on Giese and moved him to the Phillies for future considerations, but he's the only prospect left at Scranton/Wilkes-Barre who probably should be in the majors right now. Prior to 2003, he compiled a 2.55 ERA on a 256:48 K:BB in 262 innings over the past four seasons, and while he didn't pitch too great for San Diego this season, his nearly complete dominance since joining Philadelphia suggests he might even compete for the Phillies' closer job next year. The obvious problem I see is his 1.5 homer rate at Scranton, however as he hasn't suffered from lofty homer totals in the past, Giese's overall skills easily outweigh the downside of one poor ratio. While you only should FAAB him now if you can leave him on your bench until we see him post a solid groundball ratio, Giese's future looks quite bright right now.

Previously discussed 2003 NL pitching prospects: May: Ryan Madson; June: Geoff Geary; July: Josh Hancock; August: Amaury Telemaco.

Pittsburgh: John Grabow, 24, LH Swingman
0-2 on a 26:7 K:BB in 24.2 IP over 17 G
with 31 H, 0 HR, and a 4.74 ERA for AAA Nashville(PCL).
6-1 and 1 Save on a 73:19 K:BB in 83 IP over 9 GS(24G)
with 87 H, 9 HR, and a 3.36 ERA for AA Altoona(EL).

Pittsburgh promoted Grabow and a few other Sounds' prospects immediately after Nashville lost to Sacramento in the PCL playoffs. Grabow, unlikely the previously promoted Mike Gonzalez, largely proved himself at Nashville this season. While Grabow still looks capable of succeeding as a starter under the right circumstances, his success in relief this year should place him in direct competition with Gonzalez for the second lefty spot in next year's Pirate pen. As I don't see enough immediate upside to warrant adding him now, ignore Grabow for the moment, however he still could emerge as competent roster filler next spring.

Previously discussed 2003 NL pitching prospects: May: Ryan Vogelsong; June: Duaner Sanchez; July: Nelson Figueroa; August: Mike Gonzalez.

San Diego: Dennis Tankersley, 24, RH Starter
0-1 on a 0:4 K:BB in 0 IP over 1 GS
with 3 H, 0 HR, a 1-0 G-F, and an infinite ERA for San Diego.
8-11 on a 148:67 K:BB in 151 IP over 27 GS
with 149 H, 15 HR, and a 4.65 ERA for AAA Portland(PCL).

His failure to retire a single batter while walking four men in an April 9th start may have ended Tankersley's career with the Padres. While he posted perhaps the most impressive numbers of his career given his level, Tankersley's past problems with the organization and teammates should necessitate an off-season trade now that he reasserted his promise, and more importantly for San Diego, his trade value. Ignore him if the Padres promote him later this month as I don't expect him to remain with the team until Spring Training. Perhaps a trade with the Twins for Adam Johnson might solve two teams' problems with very gifted pitchers who appear to desperately require a change of scenery.

Previously discussed 2003 NL pitching prospects: May: Carlton Loewer; June: Courtney Duncan; July: Dennis Tankersley; August: Ben Howard.

San Francisco: Noah Lowry, 22, LH Starter
0-0 on a 1:0 K:BB in 1 IP over 1 G
with 1 H, 0 HR, a 1-2 G-F, and a 0.00 ERA for San Francisco.
1-0 on a 13:6 K:BB in 19 IP over 4 GS
with 15 H, 0 HR, and a 2.37 ERA for AAA Fresno(PCL).
9-6 on a 97:47 K:BB in 118.1 IP over 23 GS
with 127 H, 7 HR, and a 4.72 ERA for AA Norwich(EL).

Lowry somehow joined the Giants' September call-ups even though he didn't dominate at Norwich, spent less than a month at Fresno, and hasn't even accumulated 225 innings as a professional. Yet he currently ranks as the Giants' second-best left-handed starter after the Damian Moss trade, and Rueter's increasing injury problems might open a rotation spot for Lowry any time. Now, while Lowry isn't a top prospect, any San Francisco pitcher offers at least moderate fantasy upside thanks to PacBell, and Lowry's left-handedness could result in significant playing time in the majors in the near future. You still should ignore him now, however keep him in mind next year if he demonstrates solid skills during Spring Training.

Previously discussed 2003 NL pitching prospects: May: Matt Blank; June: Jeff Urban; July: Brian Powell; August: Kevin Correia.

St. Louis: Josh Pearce, 25, RH Starter
0-0 on a 2:1 K:BB in 5.2 IP over 4 G
with 7 H, 0 HR, an 11-5 G-F, and a 3.18 ERA for St. Louis.
3-3 on a 27:8 K:BB in 46.1 IP over 9 GS(10G)
with 51 H, 8 HR, and a 4.08 ERA for AAA Memphis(PCL).
2-1 on a 20:3 K:BB in 33 IP over 5 GS
with 34 H, 3 HR, and a 4.09 ERA for AA Tennessee(SL).
1-4 on a 15:2 K:BB in 28 IP over 5 GS(6G)
with 28 H, 2 HR, and a 3.21 ERA for A+ Palm Beach(FSL).

Pearce's recovery from surgery to repair a torn labrum in May of 2002 looks like a complete success as he compiled a 64:15 K:BB in 112.2 IP thus far, nicely echoing the outstanding control he displayed prior to the injury. Although he isn't a dominant pitcher, he owns the skills necessary to succeed in the majors right now, especially if he can maintain his solid groundball rate. Consider a minimum FAAB bid on Pearce in keeper leagues as he shouldn't hurt you now and could win a job in the Cardinals' rotation next spring.

Previously discussed 2003 NL pitching prospects: May: Dan Haren; June: Jason Pearson; July: Matt Duff; August: Jimmy Journell.

Internet Challenge

SP(6)
Randy Johnson: Sun:COL(J.Jennings)
Matt Morris: Sat:@HOU(R.Oswalt)
Roy Oswalt: Sat:STL(M.Morris)
Mike Mussina: Sat:TB(Ro.Bell)
Kevin Millwood: Sat:@PIT(J.Fogg)
Kevin Brown: Sat:SD(J.Peavy)
Kerry Wood: Fri:CIN(S.Etherton)
Jason Schmidt: Fri:MIL(M.Kinney)

No starts: Pedro, Schilling, Halladay, Prior, Loaiza, and Ainsworth.

As we have no desire to run Morris against Oswalt, we'll deploy Randy, Mussina, Millwood, Wood, Brown, and Schmidt, which should give us one of our better SP alignments of the year here.

Helton and Preston Wilson continue sitting as Colorado heads to Arizona, Soriano replaces Luis Castillo as the Yankees play Tampa while Florida faces Atlanta, and then Toby Hall also remains benched in favor of Posada and Javy Lopez. Lastly, Manny looks like a much better bet at home against the White Sox then Berkman at home against Williams, Morris, and Haren; at least Boston's lineup should give him better RBI opportunities than Berkman should see.

The Umpire Hunter(7th lg; 144th overall)
Week 24b: September 12-September 14

C	Jorge Posada		1120
C	Javier Lopez		750
1B	Erubiel Durazo		520
1B	Aubrey Huff		610 
2B	Alfonso Soriano		1460
2B	Marcus Giles		400
3B	Aramis Ramirez		820
3B	Hank Blalock		500
SS	Alex Rodriguez		2010
SS	Nomar Garciaparra	1330
OF	Vlad Guerrero		2010
OF	Albert Pujols		1750 
OF	Manny Ramirez		1610
OF	Hideki Matsui		750
OF	Carl Everett		850
OF	Vernon Wells		750
DH	Orlando Cabrera		1030 
DH	Aaron Boone		1010

SP	Randy Johnson		2010 
SP	Mike Mussina		1210
SP	Kevin Millwood		1010 
SP	Kerry Wood		990
SP	Kevin Brown		990
SP	Jason Schmidt		790
RP	Eric Gagne		1430
RP	Joe Borowski		750 
RP	Tim Worrell		740
RP	Matt Mantei		700

Total Salary for Week 24b: 	29900

Today's Fantasy Rx: Frank Robinson reportedly intends to sit Jose Vidro once the Expos completely fall out of contention, and as Vidro hasn't played in the last couple of days, I suspect he won't see many more at-bats this season. Henry Mateo looks like the new starting second baseman, and while his 2.21 G-F and .78 contact rate indicate he won't help you with his batting average or power, he possesses significant speed skills. With 10 stolen bases and only one caught stealing, numbers that compare favorably with his 15/21 SB% at AAA Ottawa in 2002, 47/61 SB% at Ottawa in 2001, and a 48/64 SB% for AA Harrisburg in 2000, Mateo offers speed-deficient teams significant potential points in close races. Look to add him immediately if you need steals or even just someone likely to register two-dozen at-bats in each of the last two weeks.