Today's Fantasy Rx

Note: For those of you unfamiliar with FAAB, each team normally begins with $100 to spend throughout the year on all free agent pickups. Most injury replacements or speculative picks go for a buck or two, hot starters go for $5-$10, top prospects go in the $10-$30 range, and we've seen $90+ bids on top players traded into the league.

Anaheim: Chris Bootcheck, 24, RH Starter
0-1 on a 3:3 K:BB in 3.1 IP over 1 GS
with 7 H, 3 HR, a 5-5 G-F, and a 21.60 ERA for Anaheim.
8-9 on an 82:43 BB:K in 171.1 IP over 26 GS(28G)
with 194 H, 19 HR, and a 4.25 ERA for AAA Salt Lake(PCL).

Oakland effectively demolished Bootcheck in his major league debut last night. He remains perhaps the most prepared starting prospect in the Angels' system, however Bootcheck isn't likely to see much success over the next couple weeks as he only faces AL West teams. While his walk rate dropped from 2.5 BB/9 in 2002 to a 2.3 mark this season, his strikeout rate also fell from 5.6 K/9 to a 4.3 mark in 2003. A nearly 30% increase in his homer rate also worries me, although we can attribute that problem to spending a full year at Salt Lake. Bootcheck is a solid all-around pitcher who should pitch effectively for the Angels given his low walk rate and their decent defense, but I don't envision him excelling any time soon due to his weak dominance. Only place a minimum FAAB bid if you're looking to add a mediocre starter for 2004 and can afford a qualitative hit now.

Previously discussed 2003 Anaheim pitching prospects: May: Greg Jones; June: Bart Miadich; July: Doug Nickle; August: Kevin Gregg.

Baltimore: Matt Riley, 24, LH Starter
4-2 on a 77:28 K:BB in 70.1 IP over 13 GS
with 70 H, 4 HR, and a 3.58 for AAA Ottawa(IL).
5-2 on a 73:23 K:BB in 72.1 IP over 14 GS
with 56 H, 4 HR, and a 3.11 ERA for AA Bowie(EL).
Formerly one of the top pitching prospects in baseball, Riley finally looks fully recovered from multiple injuries and ready to join Baltimore's rotation. The Orioles promoted him today, and hopefully he'll see a few starts over the rest of the season since he also seems prepared to contribute to fantasy teams, particularly those looking towards 2004. Although Riley's 105:48 K:BB in 109 IP at Bowie last season didn't impress anyone due to his 6.34 EERA, only a defense-induced 11.2 hit rate kept him from posting superior qualitative marks. A 7.0 H/9 this season at Bowie helped Riley cut his ERA in half, and then he posted nearly identical marks over the second half at Ottawa. Teams still in contention should avoid him, yet his double-digit upside makes Riley a very attractive target for anyone else to FAAB.

Previously discussed 2003 Baltimore pitching prospects: May: Hector Carrasco; June: Eric DuBose; July: John Stephens; August: John Parrish.

Boston: Jamie Brown, 26, RH Swingman
8-5 and 1 Save on a 65:22 K:BB in 113 IP over 13 GS(31G)
with 85 H, 5 HR, and a 2.95 ERA between AAA Buffalo(IL) and AAA Pawtucket(IL).

Recalling Casey Fossum and promoting Bronson Arroyo gives the organization an excellent infusion of young pitching talent, however I'm surprised Boston hasn't found a way to add more veteran AAAA pitchers to the staff this month. The Red Sox picked up Brown from Cleveland in a small deal at the beginning of summer, and while his overall numbers aren't too strong, he owns a 39:5 K:BB in 51.2 IP over 18 G since joining Boston. I expect Brown will compete with the other dozen AAAA right-handers Boston will invite to spring training, and he wouldn't be a bad choice if you need roster filler. However ignore him for now until he proves he can carry his recent performance with him to the majors or at least rediscovers the starting skills he displayed last year in posting a 72:17 K:BB in 104 IP over 17 GS at AA Akron.

Previously discussed 2003 Boston pitching prospects: May: Ryan Rupe; June: Bronson Arroyo; July: Dicky Gonzalez; August: Jorge de la Rosa.

Chicago White Sox: Jon Adkins, 26, RH Starter
0-0 on a 1:3 K:BB in 2.1 IP over 2 G
with 4 H, 1 HR, a 4-4 G-F, and a 15.43 ERA for Chicago(A).
7-8 and 1 Save on a 59:34 K:BB in 122.2 IP over 19 GS(26G)
with 119 H, 11 HR, and a 3.96 ERA for AAA Charlotte(IL).

The Sox definitely want Adkins to develop into a solid contributor since he was the only player acquired when the team dumped long-time second basemen Ray Durham a year ago. They promoted him a week ago largely because he already owns a 40-man roster spot, and while I suspect the Sox believe he can help in long relief, his respectable ERA belies an unimpressive skill set. Fortunately, a 2.5 BB/9 and solid hit and homer rates demonstrate that he'll see some success as long as the team doesn't allow to face scenarios requiring strikeouts as he doesn't even average one strikeout every two innings. The lack of an established role and his weak dominance might not keep him from helping Chicago, however roto owners need to ignore him since he doesn't belong on any fantasy rosters right now.

Previously discussed 2003 Chicago(A) pitching prospects: May: Matt Ginter; June: Mike Porzio; July: Jon Rauch; August: Neal Cotts.

Cleveland: Chad Durbin, 25, RH Starter
0-1 on a 1:0 K:BB in 3 IP over 1 G
with 3 H, 1 HR, a 3-3 G-F, and a 3.00 ERA for Cleveland.
3-6 on a 64:16 K:BB in 58.2 IP over 10 GS
with 51 H, 9 HR, and a 4.60 ERA for AAA Buffalo(IL).
2-0 on an 11:1 K:BB in 12 IP over 3 GS
with 7 H, 1 HR, and a 1.50 ERA for AA Akron(EL).
1-1 on an 8:3 K:BB in 12 IP over 2 GS
with 9 H, 1 HR, and a 2.25 ERA for A- Mahoning Valley(NYP).

Although Durbin isn't as promising as some pitchers dumped by the Royals in recent years, I understand why Kansas City cut him as he required reconstructive elbow surgery following last season. Yet Cleveland might have snagged a future star based on his performance since returning, and the teams' dearth of right-handers ready for the majors means that Durbin should compete for a rotation spot next spring. My concern here is that Durbin owns mediocre career marks of a 4.8 K/9, 3.6 BB/9, and 1.05 G-F, none of which suggest he belongs in the majors. Fortunately the Indians don't need to worry about the mistakes the Royals made by rushing Durbin into their rotation, and a minimum FAAB bid on him now certainly could benefit rebuilding teams in 2004.

Previously discussed 2003 Cleveland pitching prospects: May: Jason Stanford; June: Lance Caracioli; July: Cliff Lee; August: David Cortes.

Detroit: Seth Greisinger, 28, RH Starter
6-9 on an 80:23 K:BB in 136 IP over 21 GS(25G)
with 154 H, 16 HR, and a 3.97 ERA for AAA Toledo(IL).

While don't expect the Tigers to promote anyone else, Greisinger's perfectly decent numbers at Toledo should have earned him a trip to Detroit this month. A 5.2 K/9 would fit nicely next to soft-tossers like Nate Cornejo, and his excellent 1.5 BB/9 would work equally well considering the team's need to minimize walks. Unfortunately, since Greisinger essentially contributed nothing to the system for the past three seasons, his fine work this year doesn't even begin to repay the team that selected him 6th overall in 1996. He still owns enough skills to develop into a quality major league pitcher, however until you see some give him a regular big league role, ignore Greisinger as he won't help any fantasy teams.

Previously discussed 2003 Detroit pitching prospects: May: Fernando Rodney; June: Tyler Walker; July: Shane Loux; August: Nate Robertson.

Kansas City: Jamey Wright, 28, RH Starter
0-1 on a 5:1 K:BB in 8 IP over 1 GS
with 6 H, 1 HR, a 10-4 G-F, and a 3.38 ERA for Kansas City.
1-3 on a 17:10 K:BB in 22 IP over 4 GS(7G)
with 32 H, 5 HR, and a 7.36 ERA for AAA Indianapolis(IL).
5-6 on a 105:59 K:BB in 116 IP over 19 GS(20G)
with 108 H, 11 HR, and a 3.80 ERA for AAA Omaha(PCL).

Wright certainly doesn't qualify as a prospect given his half-dozen years of major league experience, yet as the Royals slotted him into the rotation immediately upon promoting him, he could contribute to needy roto teams for the stretch run. His 2004 debut in Anaheim a few days ago qualifies as a solid 4 QA, and he only missed a perfect score by one strikeout. I certainly expect Wright to struggle at times this month, however if Kansas City keeps starting him, he should win a couple games without destroying your team's standing in the qualitative categories since his solid ground-fly ratio will minimize damage from extra-base hits. Teams in need of innings or wins should feel free to FAAB Wright, particularly since you shouldn't face much competition to roster him as he's burned so many owners in the past.

Previously discussed 2003 Kansas City pitching prospects: May: Jason Gilfillan; June: Ryan Baerlocher; July: Les Walrond; August: Jimmy Gobble.

Minnesota: Brad Thomas, 24, LH Starter
0-0 on a 2:1 K:BB in 1 IP over 1 GS
with 2 H, 0 HR, a 1-1 G-F, and an 18.00 ERA for Minnesota.
0-3 on a 50:10 K:BB in 58.2 IP over 11 GS(15G)
with 68 H, 3 HR, and a 3.53 ERA for AAA Rochester(IL).
0-0 on a 12:1 K:BB in 10 IP over 2 GS
with 6 H, 0 HR, and a 0.00 ERA for R Twins(GCL).

Although Thomas isn't likely to see much time on the Metrodome mound this month, his outstanding 5.0 K:BB and respectable 7.7 K/9 are a welcome improvement over the 1.8 K:BB and 5.7 K/9 he posted at AAA a year ago. He looks prepared to compete for a rotation spot next spring and owns the skills necessary to succeed immediately. The only problem is that Thomas historically struggles significantly during his first year in a new league, so while he started five games for Minnesota in 2001, he'll be lucky to continue starting in 2004 for the contending Twins if he struggles initially. Ignore Thomas since he won't add anything to your fantasy team either this month or early next season, however as soon as he begins demonstrating decent skills in the majors, he'll merit a pickup in most leagues. Of course, if Minnesota lets Guardado and Hawkins departs as free agents before moving Romero to closer, Thomas also could emerge as a nice sleeper if given Romero's lefty setup role.

Previously discussed 2003 Minnesota pitching prospects: May: Michael Nakamura; June: Grant Balfour; July: Jeromy Palki; August: Carlos Pulido.

New York Yankees: Alex Graman, 25, LH Starter
9-10 on a 110:63 K:BB in 142.2 IP over 26 GS
with 135 H, 14 HR, and a 4.48 ERA for AAA Columbus(IL).

Last season Graman posted a 6-9 record and 4.65 ERA on a 98:37 K:BB in 124 IP with 141 H and 11 HR for Columbus, so his loss of control and increased hittability this season definitely worries me. As he never looked like a particularly dominant pitcher, he won't find much success in the majors without very good command. The Yankees' willingness to deal Brandon Claussen, a superior prospect to Graman in virtually all respects, also suggests that we might see Graman wearing a different uniform by Spring Training. Hopefully a change of scenery will enable him to avoid another year of stagnation, however since we don't know where he'll play next year even if he gets a chance on another team, ignore Graman if New York bothers promoting him later this month.

Previously discussed 2003 New York(A) pitching prospects: May: Adrian Hernandez; June: Brandon Claussen; July: Colter Bean; August: Julio DePaula.

Oakland: Mike Wood, 23, RH Starter
2-0 on a 9:5 K:BB in 8 IP over 5 G
with 8 H, 0 HR, a 10-2 G-F, and a 6.75 ERA for Oakland.
9-3 on a 59:23 K:BB in 91.1 IP over 16 GS
with 87 H, 5 HR, and a 3.05 ERA for AAA Sacramento(PCL).

The Athletics already have a full rotation for 2004 with Hudson, Zito, and Mulder under contract, Ted Lilly only in his first year of arbitration-eligibility, and Rich Harden and Justin Duchscherer prepared to fill any open rotation slots. While Wood might stick in long relief, his role this season since replacing Mulder on the roster in August, he also could try to rediscover his A-ball dominance in a second year at Sacramento. Unfortunately, unless he somehow breaks camp in Oakland's rotation, Wood won't be worth drafting and therefore isn't a good choice for a late-season addition. Ignore him this month as any potential closer with decent dominance and good command should possess more upside for your free agent dollar.

Previously discussed 2003 Oakland pitching prospects: May: Justin Duchscherer; June: Erik Hiljus; July: Rich Harden; August: Chad Harville.

Seattle: Brian Sweeney, 29, RH Swingman
0-0 on a 2:1 K:BB in 5.1 IP over 2 G
with 5 H, 0 HR, an 11-3 G-F, and a 3.38 ERA for Seattle.
11-10 on a 115:32 K:BB in 141 IP over 21 GS(29G)
with 165 H, 17 HR, and a 4.28 ERA for AAA Tacoma(PCL).

While Sweeney's age prevents him from possessing as much upside as about two dozen other pitchers in the system, he also deserves an extended chance in the majors ASAP after posting a 113:28 K:BB in 142 IP at Tacoma last year. This consistently excellent command ranks him among the most capable AAAA pitchers in the game. While his somewhat high hit rates trouble me, I also see no reason why he shouldn't start next season for one of the half-dozen teams desperate for a veteran pitcher who can throw strikes regularly. Of course, Sweeney won't receive that chance with Seattle because Rafael Soriano and Julio Mateo, not to mention Rett Johnson and Clint Nageotte, should get first crack at any rotation openings. Ignore Sweeney right now unless desperate for low-risk roster filler, however keep an eye on him this offseason since he could emerge as 2004 as an excellent roto bargain.

Previously discussed 2003 Seattle pitching prospects: May: Rafael Soriano; June: Aaron Taylor; July: Rett Johnson; August: Aaron Looper.

Tampa Bay: Jon Switzer, 24, LH Starter
0-0 on a 2:1 K:BB in 4 IP over 2 G
with 5 H, 1 HR, a 5-6 G-F, and a 9.00 ERA for Tampa Bay.
1-0 on a 3:0 K:BB in 5 IP over 1 GS
with 6 H, 1 HR, and a 1.80 ERA for AAA Durham(IL).
8-8 on a 100:32 K:BB in 126 IP over 22 GS
with 117 H, 10 HR, and a 3.43 ERA for AA Orlando(SL).

As Switzer didn't see much action after an early August call-up, Tampa sent him to Durham in time to join the Bulls' rotation for the playoffs. While he didn't dominate in his first AAA action, his overall stats for the year should place him in competition for a starting spot in Spring Training even if the Rays keep him in the bullpen this month. His 129:26 K:BB in 103 IP in the California League last year established Switzer as a top prospect, and as one of the only decent lefty prospects in the upper levels of the system, he should break camp in the majors even if he doesn't make the rotation. Switzer's skills make him as an intriguing a fantasy buy as any young Rays' pitcher aside from Doug Waechter. Although I only recommend a minimum FAAB bid for teams completely out of contention, Switzer should develop into no worse than a decent starter on a team that possesses tremendous upside over the next few years.

Previously discussed 2003 Tampa Bay pitching prospects: May: Jeremi Gonzalez; June: Talley Haines; July: Lee Gardner; August: Chad Gaudin.

Texas: Ryan Snare, 24, LH Starter
4-5 on a 28:13 K:BB in 54.2 IP over 9 GS
with 59 H, 7 HR, and a 3.46 ERA for AAA Oklahoma(PCL).
5-4 on a 77:37 K:BB in 103 IP over 18 GS
with 98 H, 4 HR, and a 3.67 ERA for AA Carolina(SL).

I don't know if Texas will bother promoting Snare this month, however he looks more prepared to enter the Rangers' rotation than almost any Rangers' rookie. Texas stole Snare from Florida in the Ugueth Urbina deal, and his performance since arriving in the system should propel him into competition for a rotation slot next spring. While a 4.6 K/9 unfortunately indicates he isn't dominating AAA pitchers, Snare's 2.1 BB/9, a welcome improvement even from the decent 3.2 walk rate he posted at Oklahoma, makes him one of the rare Rangers' pitching prospects with excellent control. As long as he can contain the longball, I believe Snare could approach double-digit value as soon as next season, a welcome return on the minimal FAAB bid required to secure his services this year.

Previously discussed 2003 Texas pitching prospects: May: Victor Santos; June: Tony Mounce; July: Reynaldo Garcia; August: Juan Dominguez.

Toronto: Vinny Chulk, 24, RH Starter
0-0 on a 1:0 K:BB in 2 IP over 1 G
with 3 H, 0 HR, a 3-4 G-F, and a 0.00 ERA for Toronto.
8-10 on a 90:46 K:BB in 119.1 IP over 21 GS(23G)
with 118 H, 14 HR, and a 4.22 ERA for AAA Syracuse(IL).

While Chulk should compete with Mark Hendrickson, Jason Arnold and an expected array of newcomers for as many as four open rotation spots next spring, he hasn't demonstrated a level of skill that indicates he'll see immediate success in the majors. Chulk emerged as a potentially dominant relief prospect in 2001, and his move to the rotation last season cut his strikeout rate and resulted in an abrupt jump in his walk rate. Two years of stats as a starter suggest he could develop into a decent innings eater, however his best chance of stardom rests in the bullpen. Owners of rebuilding teams only should consider spending a low FAAB bid on Chulk with the understanding that any fantasy value he earns above $5 next year will be the direct result of an abundance of run support.

Previously discussed 2003 Toronto pitching prospects: May: Josh Towers; June: Corey Thurman; July: Jason Arnold; August: Brian Bowles.

Today's Fantasy Rx: Yesterday's trade of Todd Sears to the Padres robs the Twins of a perfectly decent hitting prospect in exchange for Alex Garcia, a 21-year-old middle infield prospect who played poorly in A-ball this year. Neither Sears' .254/.347/.378 in 283 at-bats at AAA Rochester(IL) nor a .246/.324/.369 performance in 65 at-bats with the Twins this year qualifies as an impressive performance, but his track record is good and he possesses the plate discipline necessary to blossom in the right environment. San Diego could keep him as a pinch-hitter next year, so if you own an extra roster spot, try to FAAB him for a buck or two in the hope his power will return in 2004.