Today's Fantasy Rx

Continuing with our examination of August trends a second day, I'll review hitters who, over the past three years, lose at least .050 BA and .100 OPS from July to August. I focused on players who compiled 100 AB in both July and August over the past three years. They also must show a drop in both BA and OPS from July to August while registering at least 25 at-bats in both months in each of the last three years.

Corey Koskie, 3B, MIN: -.109 BA/-.343 OPS
Yearly BA/OPS decrease between July and August:
2000: .053/.215; 2001: .096/.294; 2002: .175/.522.

00-02	AB	BB:K	BA/OBP/SLG 
July	260	45:68	.342/.444/.604
August	275	34:60	.233/.323/.382

03Jul	37	2:8	.216/.302/.405

Corey Koskie qualified for today's list strictly due to a rebound from his placement on last month's Squashed JulyFlys list. I recommended you wait last month, and I see no reason to change my recommendation now given he remains on the DL with a sore back. If you own him, know that he could return within the week, and if Koskie isn't on your team, his injury makes him too risky to target at this time.

Luis Castillo, 2B, FLO: -.111 BA; -.202 OPS
Yearly BA/OPS decrease between July and August:
2000: .085/.187; 2001: .154/.223; 2002: .091/.194.

00-02	AB	BB:K	BA/OBP/SLG 
July	286	24:35	.357/.404/.413
August	309	29:42	.246/.311/.304

03Jul	78	11:10	.321/.404/.423

Castillo historically performs decently over the first two months of the season, dominates the first two months of summer, and then slumps through the end of the year. His .378 OBP on the season indicates he still plays a vital role in the Marlins' offense, yet he's only stolen two bases since the end of May, a far cry from the double-digit monthly totals we expect from him. He posted stolen base success rates of 74%, 67%, and 76% respectively in each of the last three years, so his 58% mark indicates a problem. Castillo likely isn't fully recovered from surgery to repair a torn labrum in his right hip last October. Right now he barely looks like a $20 player, so if you can find someone interested in adding a great BA in the middle infield who also will pay for Castillo's SB upside, deal him immediately.

Brent Mayne, C, KC: -.059 BA; -.175 OPS
Yearly BA/OPS decrease between July and August:
2000: .022/.091; 2001: .114/.395; 2002: .047/.084.

00-02	AB	BB:K	BA/OBP/SLG 
July	207	23:23	.285/.358/.396
August	177	14:25	.226/.285/.294

03Jul	50	4:6	.260/.315/.320

While Mayne's dramatic 2001 drop occurred primarily due to his trade from Colorado to Kansas City, his averages also dropped in August during both the preceding and following seasons. He tends to stick to the normal catcher trend of tiring after the All-Star Break, but after a scorching April, when hit .295 with 4 HR and 10 RBI, he only owns a .237 BA with 0 HR and 12 RBI. However, Mike DeFelice certainly doesn't deserve more playing time and the Royals lack a catching prospect hitting decently this year at any level of full-season ball, so expect Mayne to remain starting indefinitely. Unfortunately he lacks the skills to help the vast majority of fantasy teams, and while he'll contribute more quantitatively than most back-ups, you should attempt to deal him before his BA falls below .250 as I expect.

Shane Halter, SS/IF, DET: -.095 BA; -.143 OPS
Yearly BA/OPS decrease between July and August:
2000: .102/.124; 2001: .116/.148; 2002: .071/.175.

00-02	AB	BB:K	BA/OBP/SLG 
July	242	19:56	.302/.352/.467
August	251	21:53	.207/.274/.402

03Jul	39	2:11	.205/.244/.282

The highest OPS Halter managed in any month this year was a .695 mark in June thanks to his consistently horrible plate discipline. Warren Morris' emergence in Detroit pushed Halter back to a utility role, but Halter simply lacks the skills to contribute in the majors right now. Not only is his 3.68 #P/PA a career-low mark, Halter's 1.21 G-F does not indicate sufficient power potential in a pitcher-friendly park like Comerica. He won't even add any steals to your team, so look to deal or cut Halter immediately even if you only can find a single-category contributor as a replacement.

Today's Fantasy Rx: The Reds' management shake-up yesterday means that even Austin Kearns and Adam Dunn might change teams in the next few days. I truly don't believe the team is dumb enough to move future superstar hitters for any number of pitching prospects, however Aaron Boone, Sean Casey, Jose Guillen, Brandon Larson, Kelly Stinnett, Danny Graves, Scott Williamson, Gabe White, and Scott Sullivan all should be dangled in various discussions. Expect at least a couple trades involving the Reds, so if you own any of these players in NL-only leagues in which you can't keep anyone who changes leagues, you even should consider selling a little short on Guillen or the relievers if you can move them for anything near fair value.