Today's Fantasy Rx

I'm going to spend the first four days of this week on players whose August performances generally differ dramatically from their stats in July. To qualify for consideration, a position hitter must have at least 100 AB in both July and August over the last three years, and show a change, positive or negative, of .050 BA and .100 OPS between the two months. They also must show improvement in both BA and OPS from July to August while logging at least 25 at-bats in both months in each of the last three years.

Today we'll focus on improving hitters, tomorrow will be declining hitters, and then we'll spend the following two days on improving and then declining pitchers.

A few players qualified for today's list strictly due to their similar placement on last month's Squashed JulyFlys list. Instead of discussing them in detail again, I'll briefly summarize my current recommendations before continuing with new players.

Jay Payton, OF, COL: +.061 BA/+.221 OPS. July: deal.
Yearly BA/OPS increase between July and August:
2000: .060/.165; 2001: .067/.194; 2002: .023/.202.
August: deal.

Melvin Mora, OF/UT, BAL: +.056 BA/+.204 OPS. July: deal.
Yearly BA/OPS increase between July and August:
2000: .108/.290; 2001: .050/.099; 2002: .004/.213.
August: wait.

Jeff Cirillo, 3B, SEA: +.070 BA/+.171 OPS. July: deal or cut.
Yearly BA/OPS increase between July and August:
2000: .073/.172; 2001: .050/.166; 2002: .098/.216.
August: deal or cut.

Barry Bonds, OF, SF: +.080 BA; +.296 OPS
Yearly BA/OPS increase between July and August:
2000: .111/.309; 2001: .048/.281; 2002: .082/.325.

00-02	AB	BB:K	BA/OBP/SLG 
July	201	57:36	.294/.452/.622
August	243	94:36	.374/.547/.823

03Jul	55	17:8	.436/.568/1.109

Bonds' numbers this year are astounding considering the unfortunate distraction of his dad's illness. I highly doubt he will improve in August by his normal average since even Bonds likely won't approach a 2.000 OPS in a single month, however the possibility of him missing some games to spend time with his family might lower his price slightly in trade. Take advantage of recent news reports to see if you can acquire Bonds now since we expect to see extremely impressive stats from him as he leads the Giants to another extended playoff run.

Edgardo Alfonzo, 3B, SF: +.071 BA; +.204 OPS
Yearly BA/OPS increase between July and August:
2000: .076/.233; 2001: .123/.297; 2002: .118/.358.

00-02	AB	BB:K	BA/OBP/SLG 
July	257	35:42	.268/.358/.405
August	221	25:33	.339/.410/.557

03Jul	58	6:5	.328/.388/.431

Alfonzo posted a .543 OPS in April and a .560 mark in June, yet he also managed a .806 OPS in May prior to his solid performance this month. The only obvious problem with Alfonzo's skills is a 3.45 #P/PA, nearly a half-pitch per at-bat below his career average. However he owns a superb .93 contact rate, acceptable .10 walk rate, and solid .88 G-F, and given his overall numbers in July, I see no reason why he won't continue pounding the ball over the last couple months of the year. Try to acquire Alfonzo now, particularly if his salary should make him a good keeper. Even a September slump shouldn't substantially diminish his impressively increasing value.

Dan Wilson, C, SEA: +.073 BA; +.151 OPS
Yearly BA/OPS increase between July and August:
2000: .017/.080; 2001: .088/.132; 2002: .093/.218.

00-02	AB	BB:K	BA/OBP/SLG 
July	170	8:36	.224/.253/.324
August	192	10:29	.297/.327/.401

03Jul	47	2:5	.319/.340/.447

I recommended you deal or cut Wilson last month, a month after recommending you wait to see how he performed for a few more weeks. Of course after effectively sleeping through May and June, he's clobbered the ball this month largely due to posting an impressive .89 contact rate in July, easily his best mark of any month this year. Although I doubt Wilson will maintain his current pace, certainly wait if you already own him since he at least should continue contributing decent RBI totals for a catcher while hopefully not destroying your BA.

Aramis Ramirez, 3B, PIT: +.055 BA; +.167 OPS
Yearly BA/OPS increase between July and August:
2000: .049/.025; 2001: .007/.107; 2002: .100/.301.

00-02	AB	BB:K	BA/OBP/SLG 
July	299	11:45	.254/.283/.462
August	278	19:35	.309/.362/.550

03Jul	88	2:16	.239/.256/.466

While we should see a 4% drop in Ramirez' BA thanks to moving from PNC to Wrigley, the best news here is that changing teams should result in a 14% increase in homers for him, not to mention more RBI opportunities thanks to the Cubs' superior lineup. Ramirez owns a career-best .73 G-F that accompanies a decent .82 contact rate, and his .06 walk rate is nearly at the level he maintained during his superb 2001 season. I suspect I'd recommend Ramirez under any circumstances, but the combination of his new team and the likelihood of his normal late summer improvement makes Ramirez an especially tempting target to acquire.

Gregg Zaun, C, HOU: +.078 BA; +.150 OPS
Yearly BA/OPS increase between July and August:
2000: .094/.065; 2001: .058/.200; 2002: .017/.223.

00-02	AB	BB:K	BA/OBP/SLG 
July	89	11:15	.191/.282/.292
August	145	12:23	.269/.331/.393

03Jul	17	4:3	.118/.273/.294

Although Zaun doesn't play enough to give this trend too much significance, we should see his averages improve by their normal amount in August thanks to his unusually poor July. The disappearance of Zaun's roto value after joining Houston ranks among the more surprising developments of the last two years, however his current skills indicate a likely improvement in the very near future. Both his .12 walk rate and .91 contact rate strongly suggest Zaun should own a much higher batting average, and a .90 G-F shows that he could take advantage of his hitter-friendly home park if an Ausmus injury allows him regular playing time. Consequently, while Zaun isn't a great buy right now, look to acquire him if you believe his at-bats appear likely to increase for any reason.

Today's Fantasy Rx: Beginning next week, Colorado plays 15 of their next 21 games at home, and Houston plays 18 of their next 25 games at home starting next Monday. If you need to add offense, target established roto studs on both teams like Todd Helton, Preston Wilson, Lance Berkman, and Jeff Bagwell, as well as any other starting position players who possess solid skills.