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July
18th
2003
Your Daily Fantasy Rx
Rotohelp
2003 AL LPR at the AS Break
by Tim Polko

Today's Fantasy Rx

Please check here for a complete description of these rankings. We've included the five most recent 2003 QA scores for each starter, along with the 10 most recent QA scores for each reliever, tabulating all data through the end of the first half on July 13th.


1
23BCYZ - Pedro Martinez(44503)
3ABCXZ - Roger Clemens(24545)
ABX - Sir Sidney Ponson(35355)
AX - Esteban Loiaza(35445)

23abcxyz - Arthur Rhodes(5545343443)
2abxy - LaTroy Hawkins(2444425434)
abcxyz - Jason Grimsley(3340534544)
ac - Aaron Fultz(3423325445)
ax - Danys Baez(5255545445)
ay - Scot Shields(2404455422)
Travis Harper(4333341403)


2
3ABCXYZ - Roy Halladay(54555)
3ACY - Mark Mulder(43034)
Abcyz - Byung-Hyun Kim(23423)

3abcxyz - Mariano Rivera(3354454544)
3bcyz - Buddy Groom(4332241054)
abcxyz - Keith Foulke(4354235432)
abcxy - Chad Bradford(4444444432)
bcyz - Ricardo Rincon(4351514255)
abx - Damaso Marte(4334431231)
aby - Francisco Cordero(4544231242)
bcy - Alan Embree(3413553433)


3
ABCXYZ - Tim Hudson(30245)
AX - Mike Mussina(33343)
A - Joel Pineiro(35443)
C - Kevin Appier(44311)
C - John Burkett(33014)
Freddy Garcia(43443)

bcyz - Steve Karsay
bcyz - Bob Wickman
by - Cliff Politte(4334332525)
cz - Ramiro Mendoza(2412035521)


A
Cab - Kelvim Escobar(40454)
X - Ismael Valdes(33444)
Adam Bernero(44440)
Kyle Lohse(53452)
Gil Meche(52245)
Joaquin Benoit(50401)


B
Ycz - Derek Lowe(43352)
YZ - Tim Wakefield(40053)
Y - Mark Buehrle(43503)
Y - Jeff Weaver(13331)
Z - Andy Pettitte(05504)
Bartolo Colon(43443)
Rodrigo Lopez(31303)
Casey Fossum(45210)
Ryan Rupe(32)

Mickey Callaway(4453145332)


C
Z - Chan Ho Park(33300)
Z - Jon Lieber
Cory Lidle(45314)
John Thomson(23350)
Jake Westbrook(42544433)

Zx - Brandon Lyon(4253443343)


X
Y - David Wells(33244)
Jeremi Gonzalez(34323)


Y
cz - Victor Zambrano(34434)


Z
Jon Garland(35053)
Barry Zito(42233)


a
bcxyz - Mike Timlin(5444445542)
bcxyz - Tom Gordon(4444234334)
bcxyz - Kazuhiro Sasaki(4555334543)
bcxz - Jim Mecir(4352444444)
bcxz - Jeff Nelson(315445353)
bcyz - Billy Koch(4523423334)
bcyz - Troy Percival(4534422542)
bxy - Eddie Guardado(4443424402)

bc - Kelly Wunsch(4444303034)
bx - Brendan Donnelly(3335345343)
bx - Brian Shouse(3243344344)
cx - David Riske(4442444424)
xy - Jorge Julio(2355443244)
b - Scott Schoeneweis(4342203544)
x - Aquilino Lopez(4335244435)
x - Jason Shiell(2453442354)
x - B.J. Ryan(5443402044)
x - Mike MacDougal(4343344523)
z - Sean Lowe(2453352451)
Chris Spurling(4441443343)
Franklyn German(5305434415)
Mike Neu(4224524322)


b
y - Omar Daal(44033)
y - Brian Anderson(14305)
y - Jeremy Affeldt(24303)
y - Mark Hendrickson(33003)

cyz - Ugueth Urbina(3454312333)
cyz - Rick White(2020544434)
yz - Ben Weber(3242445333)
yz - Gary Glover(1322331043)
yz - Mike Fetters(43344)
y - Chris Hammond(4254344434)
y - J.C. Romero(4414140330)
y - Al Reyes(35322233)
Julio Mateo(4421430344)
Travis Driskill(2230132434)
Juan Acevedo(4330233322)


c
yz - Jeff Tam(4335135232)
z - Dan Miceli(3455554114)
z - Willis Roberts(0343445523)
z - Al Levine(3423525224)
z - Kris Wilson(3423324353)
z - Rudy Seanez(3325050)
z - Chad Fox(2413455332)
z - Danny Patterson
z - Jeff Zimmerman
Tanyon Sturtze(4234453225)
Giovanni Carrara(0342232423)


x
z - Shigetoshi Hasegawa(4524443335)
z - Mike Venafro(2444324333)
Scott Service(5332334344)
Francisco Rodriguez(1355333343)
Steve Avery(3413333044)


y
Johan Santana(444 as a starter)
Dave Elder(4401)


z
Jay Powell(2223330244)
Mark Wohlers


AL starters I recommend despite their failure to appear above include Jeremy Bonderman(40334), Nate Cornejo(34322), Jason Davis(33414), Ryan Franklin(23342), John Lackey(42453), Mike Maroth(24033), Ramon Ortiz(41433), Brad Radke(04432), Kyle Snyder(14153), Jarrod Washburn(42411), and Danny Wright(04043).

Other decent relievers include D.J. Carrasco, Lance Carter, Jesus Colome, and Michael Nakamura.


We modified these ratings slightly since posting our team-by-team LPR scores in January. By reworking the A-Z and a-z ratings, we now can easily identify effective starters rather than looking for truly dominant performers, of which we only found a few pitchers in any of the previous few seasons.

1 - K/9 of 6.0+, BB/9 of 3.0-, H/9 of 9.0-, HR/9 of 1.0-,
     and G-F of 1.0+ in 25+ IP in 2003.
2 - K/9 of 6.0+, BB/9 of 3.0-, H/9 of 9.0-, HR/9 of 1.0-,
     and G-F of 1.0+ in 25+ IP in 2002.
3 - K/9 of 6.0+, BB/9 of 3.0-, H/9 of 9.0-, HR/9 of 1.0-,
     and G-F of 1.0+ in 25+ IP in 2001.


QA score for starts: up to 5 total points, one for each statistical goal, to any starter who pitches at least 5 innings and fulfills any of the following skill qualifications: K>=IP-2, BB<=IP/3, H<=IP, HR<=1, and G-F>=1.00. Any starter who doesn't reach any of the required statistical goals or fails to pitch 5 innings earns a 0 QA score.

QA score for relief outings: up to 5 total points, one for each statistical goal, to any reliever who retires at least one batter and fulfills any of the following skill qualifications: K>=IP, BB=0, H<=IP, HR=0, and G-F>=1.00. Any reliever who doesn't reach any of the required statistical goals or fails to retire a batter earns a 0 QA score.

Note: Starters must pitch in five games before scoring DOM or DIS ratings; relievers must appear in no less than 10 games before earning DOM/DIS consideration. All pitchers are evaluated as relievers aside from those who both reached 5 starts in a given season and qualified for DOM or DIS ratings.

A - QA score of 4 or 5 in at least 50% of 2003 starts
B - QA score of 4 or 5 in at least 50% of 2002 starts
C - QA score of 4 or 5 in at least 50% of 2001 starts

X - QA score below 3 in no more than 20% of 2003 starts
Y - QA score below 3 in no more than 20% of 2002 starts
Z - QA score below 3 in no more than 20% of 2001 starts

a - QA score of 4 or 5 in at least 50% of 2003 relief outings
b - QA score of 4 or 5 in at least 50% of 2002 relief outings
c - QA score of 4 or 5 in at least 50% of 2001 relief outings

x - QA score below 3 in no more than 20% of 2003 relief outings
y - QA score below 3 in no more than 20% of 2002 relief outings
z - QA score below 3 in no more than 20% of 2001 relief outings


We'll continue tomorrow with this week's NL LPR article.


Today's Fantasy Rx: If you need to improve your qualitative stats, a few AL pitchers should rank at the top of your list due to their skills, defensive support, and friendly home ballparks. Pedro is an obvious choice, however Mike Mussina and probably Sidney Ponson offer nearly as much upside. I see more variety among relievers as Scot Shields, Scott Schoeneweis, LaTroy Hawkins, Jim Mecir, and even Travis Harper look solid, although Shields and Mecir possess the best combination of environmental benefits and a solid skill history.


Click here to read the previous article.

Please e-mail your comments to tim@rotohelp.com.
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