Rotohelp.com

by Tim Polko

To qualify for consideration, a player must have a total of 75 IP in both halves of the last three years while displaying an average change, positive or negative, of 0.75 ERA between the two halves. We're only discussing pitchers who also saw their ERAs move in the same direction, positive or negative, in each of the last three seasons.

Pitching Improvements

I'll discuss in detail the current major leaguers who meet our usual monthly standard of an improvement of at least 1.50 ERA and experienced at least a .50 decrease in their respective ERA during the second half of each of the past three seasons before listing the remaining qualified players.

B.J. Ryan, RP, BAL: -3.70 ERA
Yearly ERA change: '02: -3.67; '01: -3.39; '00: -4.59.

00-02	GS/G	IP	H/HR	K:BB	W-L/S	ERA
1st H	0/82	78	82/14	87:64	4-6/2	6.69
2nd H	0/88	75.1	52/6	70:30	2-2/1	2.99

03 1st	0/40	25.1	25/1	36:14	3-0/0	5.68

Ryan's normally dramatic second-half progress appears rooted in a general improvement of his walk, hit, and homer rates; he allows less baserunners while lowering the number of base-clearing hits. Only a weak 5.0 BB/9 seems to explain his bloated 2003 ERA, especially since Ryan didn't post a QA score below 4 until mid-May. At least Ryan's skills suggest perfect positioning for him to maintain this helpful historical trend, particularly with a 2.50 G-F well above his previous career high of 1.50. Look to acquire Ryan if you want to add a relatively low-risk middle reliever. His value could skyrocket if Mike Hargrove realizes that Ryan is a true specialist, as indicated by his .455 OPS on a 25:6 K:BB in 48 at-bats against lefties and .927 OPS on an 11:8 K:BB in 48 at-bats versus right-handed batters.

Cory Lidle, SP, TOR: -2.25 ERA
Yearly ERA change: '02: -2.61; '01: -1.31; '00: -3.18.

00-02	GS/G	IP	H/HR	K:BB	W-L/S	ERA
1st H	37/46	230	273/36	158:58	5-15/0	5.17
2nd H	33/45	246.2	202/17	133:57	20-7/0	2.92

03 1st	20/20	125.1	146/15	76:33	10-8/0	5.96

While Lidle's 5.5 K/9 isn't particularly strong, a 2.4 BB/9, 1.1 HR/9, and 1.56 G-F all appear quite respectable. If Toronto deals Lidle to a team with a strong defense, he should cruise to 20 wins while posting an excellent ERA. Of course, he should lower his ERA by at least a run even if he stays with the Blue Jays, though a current 5-start QA log of 30201 suggests he needs rest. Wait on Lidle, as I'm just concerned enough about his arm right now to hold off on attempting to trade for him.

Esteban Yan, RP, STL: -2.17 ERA
Yearly ERA change: '02: -1.43; '01: -2.26; '00: -1.80.

00-02	GS/G	IP	H/HR	K:BB	W-L/S    ERA
1st H	17/75	154.2	183/26	110:52	10-13/19 6.11	
2nd H	3/77	114.1	109/17	118:30	8-9/22   3.94

03 1st	0/36	46	59/8	37:15	2-1/0    6.65

We've observed glimpses of upside in Yan's QA scores this season, and both his 7.2 K/9 and 2.9 BB/9 indicate he owns respectable control. The Cardinals provide him much better defensive support than he saw in Texas, and his G-F is at a career-best 1.48 since he entered the National League. Yan possess the skills necessary to echo his normal second half improvement rather easily, and he even could see some save opportunities if Isringhausen's health fails again. While adding him to your team involves a definite risk to your qualitative stats, I see enough positive trends here to justify recommending that you acquire Yan, particularly if you own Izzy.

Octavio Dotel, RP, HOU: -1.80 ERA
Yearly ERA change: '02: -1.44; '01: -1.45; '00: -.86.

00-02	GS/G	IP	H/HR	K:BB	W-L/S    ERA
1st H	20/94	213.1	194/30	239:94	11-12/4  4.09	
2nd H	0/100	114	70/8	166:41	5-4/20   2.29

03 1st	0/47	53.2	33/5	62:18	6-3/3    2.52

Dotel always seems somewhat risky to me since he's never posted a G-F above .80 and plays home games at Minute Maid Park. However all his other skills are superb, and only the presence of Billy Wagner prevents him from emerging as a dominant closer. He even pitches sufficient innings to regularly post double-digit values thanks to his consistently excellent qualitative stats. Look to acquire Dotel, particularly if you play in a keeper league and can retain him, as budgetary restrictions could force a change at closer for Houston.

Keith Foulke, RP, OAK: -1.76 ERA
Yearly ERA change: '02: -4.09; '01: -.68; '00: -.61.

00-02	GS/G	IP	H/HR	K:BB	W-L/S	ERA
1st H	0/114	138.2	119/14	122:38	5-9/43	3.51	
2nd H	0/95	108	69/5	102:19	4-5/44	1.75

03 1st	0/42	50.1	38/6	54:11	7-1/24	2.68

Only a career-worst .48 G-F indicates any real downside here, however Foulke owned a G-F between .60 and .80 from 1998 through 2001 while establishing himself as one of the majors' premiere relievers. All his other skills look very strong, and the A's unimpressive offense should allow Foulke to cruise past 40 saves this season. I can't think of any AL closer I'd rather have for the balance of the year than Keith Foulke, and if you need saves and/or qualitative help, look to acquire him now.

The following players qualified and saw their respective ERAs drop by .25 or more in the second half of each of the past three seasons, however none of them posted an average ERA improvement better than 1.50: Livan Hernandez(-1.39 average ERA change), Felix Rodriguez(-1.38), Kevin Millwood(-1.17), Steve Sparks(-1.04), and Kerry Wood(-.80). While Millwood and Wood look particularly strong, I see no problem with recommending any of these players, although Sparks only should be employed as roster filler.

Pitching Declines

I'll discuss in detail the current major leaguers who meet our usual monthly standard of a jump of 1.50 or more in ERA who also experienced at least a .50 increase in their respective ERAs during the second half of each of the past three seasons before listing the remaining qualified players.

Mike Stanton, RP, NYM: +2.15 ERA
Yearly ERA change: '02: +1.71; '01: +1.67; '00: +3.40.

00-02	GS/G	IP	H/HR	K:BB	W-L/S	ERA
1st H	127/0	140.2	127/6	122:47	11-4/1	2.37
2nd H	97/0	85.2	94/7	75:34	7-4/5	4.52

03 1st	26/0	21.2	19/2	14:9	2-3/0	2.57

Although Stanton could find himself competing for save opportunities in the coming weeks, I instead expect the Mets to employ a potential bevy of young right-handers if John Franco cannot reclaim his old role. I doubt even the homer-suppressing powers of Shea Stadium will keep Stanton's homer rate low given his career-worst .74 G-F, and the Mets' inexperienced defenders should cause his hit rate to rise. We aren't even convinced Stanton will remain healthy, so if you own him, talk up the possibility of Stanton factoring into the closer mix as you try to deal him now.

Rheal Cormier, RP, PHI: +2.08 ERA
Yearly ERA change: '02: +1.01; '01: +3.89; '00: +1.40.

00-02	GS/G	IP	H/HR	K:BB	W-L/S	ERA
1st H	0/105	101.1	102/1	74:34	11-6/1	3.81
2nd H	0/73	78	82/7	55:32	2-9/0	5.89

03 1st	0/38	47.1	28/2	38:16	2-0/0	1.52

Excellent defensive support appears the source of most of Cormier's success this season, however all his skills also look quite solid right now. Cormier even could experience his normal ERA jump of 2.08 and still post a helpful 3.60 ERA on the balance of the season. While I don't expect him to maintain this level of excellence into 2004, he ranks with the safest middle relievers to own in baseball, and he should top many owners' short lists of potential roster filler.

Paul Shuey, RP, LA: +1.68 ERA
Yearly ERA change: '02: +1.22; '01: +2.53; '00: +1.64.

00-02	GS/G	IP	H/HR	K:BB	W-L/S	ERA
1st H	0/87	97.2	84/4	111:40	10-4/2	2.40
2nd H	0/84	88.1	76/4	91:47	7-3/1	4.08

03 1st	0/33	38.1	23/4	30:16	3-2/0	1.88

We anticipate definite erosion in the Dodgers' defense while Burnitz plays center field and Rickey patrols left, so we can't expect Shuey's hit rate to remain much below 9.0. My biggest concern involves a career-worst 6.9 K/9, as the depth in Los Angeles' bullpen means the Dodgers should shop less dominant relievers like Shuey. His value likely would plummet on a different team, so you probably should look to deal Shuey rather than risk seeing his qualitative numbers suffer due to an abundance of baserunners or a trade.

The following players qualified and saw their respective ERAs rise by .25 or more in the second half of each of the past three seasons, however none of them posted an average ERA decline worse than 1.50: Jason Johnson(+1.19 average ERA change), Al Levine(+1.04), Nelson Cruz(+1.01), Shawn Estes(+.90), and Danny Graves(+.79). I doubt many of you own Levine or Cruz, however Johnson, Estes, and Graves all look like severe qualitative risks at this point; try to trade all three pitchers if you've previously rostered them on any of your teams.

Internet Challenge

The loss of Kearns to the DL, along with previous injuries to Vlad and Dave Roberts, leaves us with only five healthy outfielders. While we hoped to save our moves as long as possible, we need a healthy outfielder. We'll dump Roberts, since he likely won't steal many bases for health reasons even when he returns. We could use help in every category on offense, however HR & RBI are our primary needs. Although we likely should have owned him all season, we'll rectify one of our most severe mistakes by rostering Vernon Wells, who conveniently normally improves in the second half.

SP(6)
Randy Johnson: Sun:@SD(K.Jarvis)???
Pedro Martinez: Sun:TOR(J.Wasdin)
Roy Oswalt: Fri:@CIN(R.Dempster)
Mike Mussina: Sun:CLE(J.Westbrook)
Kevin Brown Sat:STL(D.Haren)???
Kerry Wood: Sun:@FLO(D.Willis)
Jason Schmidt: Fri:COL(D.Oliver)
Mark Prior: Sat:@FLO(B.Penny)
Esteban Loaiza: Sun:DET(W.Ledezma)

No starts: Schilling, Millwood, Halladay, and Ainsworth.

We have no desire to run Randy or Brown since both pitchers might miss their starts, and Oswalt is also far too risky in the GAB. Those decisions leave us with Pedro, Mussina, Wood, Schmidt, Prior, and Loaiza, and we're quite comfortable deploying that sextet.

Durazo hits the bench in favor of Orlando Cabrera's five-category potential, and Scott Williamson remains seated with Cincy hosting Houston this weekend.

The Umpire Hunter(13th lg; 337th overall)
Week 16b: July 18-July 20

C	Jorge Posada		1120
C	Toby Hall		460
1B	Todd Helton		1850
1B	Aubrey Huff		610
2B	Alfonso Soriano		1460
2B	Luis Castillo		1210 
3B	Aramis Ramirez		820
3B	Hank Blalock		500
SS	Alex Rodriguez		2010
SS	Nomar Garciaparra	1330
OF	Lance Berkman		1640
OF	Manny Ramirez		1610
OF	Preston Wilson		1220 
OF	Carl Everett		850
OF	Vernon Wells		750
OF	Hideki Matsui		750
DH	Orlando Cabrera		1030
DH	Aaron Boone		1010

SP	Pedro Martinez		1700
SP	Mike Mussina		1210
SP	Kerry Wood		990
SP	Jason Schmidt		790
SP	Mark Prior		750
SP	Esteban Loaiza		680
RP	Eric Gagne		1430
RP	Mike MacDougal		750
RP	Tim Worrell		740
RP	Matt Mantei		700

Total Salary for Week 16b: 	29970

Today's Fantasy Rx: Six teams have scored over 500 runs in 2003: Boston, Toronto, and New York in the American League, and Colorado, St. Louis, and Atlanta in the NL. None of the AL teams owns a particularly strong defense, but Atlanta and St. Louis both rank among the top six NL defensive units. Atlanta and Colorado also are the only teams here that own above-average bullpens, so if you're looking for wins among NL starters, target Braves, specifically Russ Ortiz, and to a lesser extent, Greg Maddux and Horacio Ramirez. Halladay is the safest bet for wins in the AL, although you can't go wrong with any of the top three starters in either Boston or New York.

Click here to read the previous article.

Please e-mail your comments to tim@rotohelp.com.



Rotohelp		2003 Pitching: At the Break by Tim Polko Today's Fantasy Rx To qualify for consideration, a player must have a total of 75 IP in both halves of the last three years while displaying an average change, positive or negative, of 0.75 ERA between the two halves. We're only discussing pitchers who also saw their ERAs move in the same direction, positive or negative, in each of the last three seasons. Pitching Improvements I'll discuss in detail the current major leaguers who meet our usual monthly standard of an improvement of at least 1.50 ERA and experienced at least a .50 decrease in their respective ERA during the second half of each of the past three seasons before listing the remaining qualified players. B.J. Ryan, RP, BAL: -3.70 ERA Yearly ERA change: '02: -3.67; '01: -3.39; '00: -4.59. 00-02 GS/G IP H/HR K:BB W-L/S ERA 1st H 0/82 78 82/14 87:64 4-6/2 6.69 2nd H 0/88 75.1 52/6 70:30 2-2/1 2.99 03 1st 0/40 25.1 25/1 36:14 3-0/0 5.68 Ryan's normally dramatic second-half progress appears rooted in a general improvement of his walk, hit, and homer rates; he allows less baserunners while lowering the number of base-clearing hits. Only a weak 5.0 BB/9 seems to explain his bloated 2003 ERA, especially since Ryan didn't post a QA score below 4 until mid-May. At least Ryan's skills suggest perfect positioning for him to maintain this helpful historical trend, particularly with a 2.50 G-F well above his previous career high of 1.50. Look to acquire Ryan if you want to add a relatively low-risk middle reliever. His value could skyrocket if Mike Hargrove realizes that Ryan is a true specialist, as indicated by his .455 OPS on a 25:6 K:BB in 48 at-bats against lefties and .927 OPS on an 11:8 K:BB in 48 at-bats versus right-handed batters. Cory Lidle, SP, TOR: -2.25 ERA Yearly ERA change: '02: -2.61; '01: -1.31; '00: -3.18. 00-02 GS/G IP H/HR K:BB W-L/S ERA 1st H 37/46 230 273/36 158:58 5-15/0 5.17 2nd H 33/45 246.2 202/17 133:57 20-7/0 2.92 03 1st 20/20 125.1 146/15 76:33 10-8/0 5.96 While Lidle's 5.5 K/9 isn't particularly strong, a 2.4 BB/9, 1.1 HR/9, and 1.56 G-F all appear quite respectable. If Toronto deals Lidle to a team with a strong defense, he should cruise to 20 wins while posting an excellent ERA. Of course, he should lower his ERA by at least a run even if he stays with the Blue Jays, though a current 5-start QA log of 30201 suggests he needs rest. Wait on Lidle, as I'm just concerned enough about his arm right now to hold off on attempting to trade for him. Esteban Yan, RP, STL: -2.17 ERA Yearly ERA change: '02: -1.43; '01: -2.26; '00: -1.80. 00-02 GS/G IP H/HR K:BB W-L/S ERA 1st H 17/75 154.2 183/26 110:52 10-13/19 6.11 2nd H 3/77 114.1 109/17 118:30 8-9/22 3.94 03 1st 0/36 46 59/8 37:15 2-1/0 6.65 We've observed glimpses of upside in Yan's QA scores this season, and both his 7.2 K/9 and 2.9 BB/9 indicate he owns respectable control. The Cardinals provide him much better defensive support than he saw in Texas, and his G-F is at a career-best 1.48 since he entered the National League. Yan possess the skills necessary to echo his normal second half improvement rather easily, and he even could see some save opportunities if Isringhausen's health fails again. While adding him to your team involves a definite risk to your qualitative stats, I see enough positive trends here to justify recommending that you acquire Yan, particularly if you own Izzy. Octavio Dotel, RP, HOU: -1.80 ERA Yearly ERA change: '02: -1.44; '01: -1.45; '00: -.86. 00-02 GS/G IP H/HR K:BB W-L/S ERA 1st H 20/94 213.1 194/30 239:94 11-12/4 4.09 2nd H 0/100 114 70/8 166:41 5-4/20 2.29 03 1st 0/47 53.2 33/5 62:18 6-3/3 2.52 Dotel always seems somewhat risky to me since he's never posted a G-F above .80 and plays home games at Minute Maid Park. However all his other skills are superb, and only the presence of Billy Wagner prevents him from emerging as a dominant closer. He even pitches sufficient innings to regularly post double-digit values thanks to his consistently excellent qualitative stats. Look to acquire Dotel, particularly if you play in a keeper league and can retain him, as budgetary restrictions could force a change at closer for Houston. Keith Foulke, RP, OAK: -1.76 ERA Yearly ERA change: '02: -4.09; '01: -.68; '00: -.61. 00-02 GS/G IP H/HR K:BB W-L/S ERA 1st H 0/114 138.2 119/14 122:38 5-9/43 3.51 2nd H 0/95 108 69/5 102:19 4-5/44 1.75 03 1st 0/42 50.1 38/6 54:11 7-1/24 2.68 Only a career-worst .48 G-F indicates any real downside here, however Foulke owned a G-F between .60 and .80 from 1998 through 2001 while establishing himself as one of the majors' premiere relievers. All his other skills look very strong, and the A's unimpressive offense should allow Foulke to cruise past 40 saves this season. I can't think of any AL closer I'd rather have for the balance of the year than Keith Foulke, and if you need saves and/or qualitative help, look to acquire him now. The following players qualified and saw their respective ERAs drop by .25 or more in the second half of each of the past three seasons, however none of them posted an average ERA improvement better than 1.50: Livan Hernandez(-1.39 average ERA change), Felix Rodriguez(-1.38), Kevin Millwood(-1.17), Steve Sparks(-1.04), and Kerry Wood(-.80). While Millwood and Wood look particularly strong, I see no problem with recommending any of these players, although Sparks only should be employed as roster filler. Pitching Declines I'll discuss in detail the current major leaguers who meet our usual monthly standard of a jump of 1.50 or more in ERA who also experienced at least a .50 increase in their respective ERAs during the second half of each of the past three seasons before listing the remaining qualified players. Mike Stanton, RP, NYM: +2.15 ERA Yearly ERA change: '02: +1.71; '01: +1.67; '00: +3.40. 00-02 GS/G IP H/HR K:BB W-L/S ERA 1st H 127/0 140.2 127/6 122:47 11-4/1 2.37 2nd H 97/0 85.2 94/7 75:34 7-4/5 4.52 03 1st 26/0 21.2 19/2 14:9 2-3/0 2.57 Although Stanton could find himself competing for save opportunities in the coming weeks, I instead expect the Mets to employ a potential bevy of young right-handers if John Franco cannot reclaim his old role. I doubt even the homer-suppressing powers of Shea Stadium will keep Stanton's homer rate low given his career-worst .74 G-F, and the Mets' inexperienced defenders should cause his hit rate to rise. We aren't even convinced Stanton will remain healthy, so if you own him, talk up the possibility of Stanton factoring into the closer mix as you try to deal him now. Rheal Cormier, RP, PHI: +2.08 ERA Yearly ERA change: '02: +1.01; '01: +3.89; '00: +1.40. 00-02 GS/G IP H/HR K:BB W-L/S ERA 1st H 0/105 101.1 102/1 74:34 11-6/1 3.81 2nd H 0/73 78 82/7 55:32 2-9/0 5.89 03 1st 0/38 47.1 28/2 38:16 2-0/0 1.52 Excellent defensive support appears the source of most of Cormier's success this season, however all his skills also look quite solid right now. Cormier even could experience his normal ERA jump of 2.08 and still post a helpful 3.60 ERA on the balance of the season. While I don't expect him to maintain this level of excellence into 2004, he ranks with the safest middle relievers to own in baseball, and he should top many owners' short lists of potential roster filler. Paul Shuey, RP, LA: +1.68 ERA Yearly ERA change: '02: +1.22; '01: +2.53; '00: +1.64. 00-02 GS/G IP H/HR K:BB W-L/S ERA 1st H 0/87 97.2 84/4 111:40 10-4/2 2.40 2nd H 0/84 88.1 76/4 91:47 7-3/1 4.08 03 1st 0/33 38.1 23/4 30:16 3-2/0 1.88 We anticipate definite erosion in the Dodgers' defense while Burnitz plays center field and Rickey patrols left, so we can't expect Shuey's hit rate to remain much below 9.0. My biggest concern involves a career-worst 6.9 K/9, as the depth in Los Angeles' bullpen means the Dodgers should shop less dominant relievers like Shuey. His value likely would plummet on a different team, so you probably should look to deal Shuey rather than risk seeing his qualitative numbers suffer due to an abundance of baserunners or a trade. The following players qualified and saw their respective ERAs rise by .25 or more in the second half of each of the past three seasons, however none of them posted an average ERA decline worse than 1.50: Jason Johnson(+1.19 average ERA change), Al Levine(+1.04), Nelson Cruz(+1.01), Shawn Estes(+.90), and Danny Graves(+.79). I doubt many of you own Levine or Cruz, however Johnson, Estes, and Graves all look like severe qualitative risks at this point; try to trade all three pitchers if you've previously rostered them on any of your teams. Internet Challenge The loss of Kearns to the DL, along with previous injuries to Vlad and Dave Roberts, leaves us with only five healthy outfielders. While we hoped to save our moves as long as possible, we need a healthy outfielder. We'll dump Roberts, since he likely won't steal many bases for health reasons even when he returns. We could use help in every category on offense, however HR & RBI are our primary needs. Although we likely should have owned him all season, we'll rectify one of our most severe mistakes by rostering Vernon Wells, who conveniently normally improves in the second half. SP(6) Randy Johnson: Sun:@SD(K.Jarvis)??? Pedro Martinez: Sun:TOR(J.Wasdin) Roy Oswalt: Fri:@CIN(R.Dempster) Mike Mussina: Sun:CLE(J.Westbrook) Kevin Brown Sat:STL(D.Haren)??? Kerry Wood: Sun:@FLO(D.Willis) Jason Schmidt: Fri:COL(D.Oliver) Mark Prior: Sat:@FLO(B.Penny) Esteban Loaiza: Sun:DET(W.Ledezma) No starts: Schilling, Millwood, Halladay, and Ainsworth. We have no desire to run Randy or Brown since both pitchers might miss their starts, and Oswalt is also far too risky in the GAB. Those decisions leave us with Pedro, Mussina, Wood, Schmidt, Prior, and Loaiza, and we're quite comfortable deploying that sextet. Durazo hits the bench in favor of Orlando Cabrera's five-category potential, and Scott Williamson remains seated with Cincy hosting Houston this weekend. The Umpire Hunter(13th lg; 337th overall) Week 16b: July 18-July 20 C Jorge Posada 1120 C Toby Hall 460 1B Todd Helton 1850 1B Aubrey Huff 610 2B Alfonso Soriano 1460 2B Luis Castillo 1210 3B Aramis Ramirez 820 3B Hank Blalock 500 SS Alex Rodriguez 2010 SS Nomar Garciaparra 1330 OF Lance Berkman 1640 OF Manny Ramirez 1610 OF Preston Wilson 1220 OF Carl Everett 850 OF Vernon Wells 750 OF Hideki Matsui 750 DH Orlando Cabrera 1030 DH Aaron Boone 1010 SP Pedro Martinez 1700 SP Mike Mussina 1210 SP Kerry Wood 990 SP Jason Schmidt 790 SP Mark Prior 750 SP Esteban Loaiza 680 RP Eric Gagne 1430 RP Mike MacDougal 750 RP Tim Worrell 740 RP Matt Mantei 700 Total Salary for Week 16b: 29970 Today's Fantasy Rx: Six teams have scored over 500 runs in 2003: Boston, Toronto, and New York in the American League, and Colorado, St. Louis, and Atlanta in the NL. None of the AL teams owns a particularly strong defense, but Atlanta and St. Louis both rank among the top six NL defensive units. Atlanta and Colorado also are the only teams here that own above-average bullpens, so if you're looking for wins among NL starters, target Braves, specifically Russ Ortiz, and to a lesser extent, Greg Maddux and Horacio Ramirez. Halladay is the safest bet for wins in the AL, although you can't go wrong with any of the top three starters in either Boston or New York. Click here to read the previous article. Please e-mail your comments to tim@rotohelp.com.
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