Rotohelp.com

by Tim Polko

On our last day of discussing July trends, today I'm reviewing pitchers who, over the past three years, saw their ERA increase by at least 1.50 from June to July. We only looked at pitchers who compiled at least a total of 30 IP in both months over the past three years.

A few players qualified for today's list strictly due to their similar placement on last month's Junebugs list. Instead of discussing them in detail again, I'll briefly summarize my current recommendations before continuing with new players.

Brad Penny, RH Starter, FLO: +3.68 ERA. June: wait.
July: wait.

Darren Oliver, LH Starter, COL: +2.45 ERA. June: wait.
July: deal.

Antonio Alfonseca, RH Reliever, CHC: +2.34 ERA. June: acquire.
July: wait.

Jose Mesa, RH Closer, PHI: +2.29 ERA. June: acquire.
July: wait.

Billy Koch, RH Closer, CHW: +1.58 ERA. June: acquire.
July: deal.

Odalis Perez, LH Starter, LA: +5.12 ERA
00-02	GS/G	IP	H/HR	K:BB	W-L/S	ERA
June	11/11	75	55/4	57:16	7-2/0	2.52
July	7/7	35.1	52/7	30:9	1-5/0	7.64

03Jun	5/5	31	30/5	22:5	0-3/0	4.65

While the Dodgers provide little run support for Perez, he also owns a 1.8 homer rate since the end of April despite a 2.07 G-F that ranks significantly better than his 1.36 from last season. Of course, his current 54524 five-start QA log still suggests significant upside, and his June problems a year ago seemed due to general fatigue at the time. Unless you only need to add wins to help your pitching, try to acquire Perez now while his value is low.

Tomo Ohka, RH Starter, MON: +4.91 ERA
00-02	GS/G	IP	H/HR	K:BB	W-L/S	ERA
June	6/6	39	45/3	24:6	3-1/0	3.00
July	10/12	46.2	72/8	36:16	1-6/0	7.91

03Jun	5/5	23	36/6	13:6	2-2/0	7.04

Ohka suffers this year from the same problem that plagued him last June, an inconsistent defense that magnifies his tendency to allow too many hits. The other reason Ohka's current 4.97 ERA is more than twice as high as his 2002 mark is that his homer rate jumped from .9 to 1.5 this season. He can't compensate for that difference while allowing a greater number of baserunners, so although I believe he remains a competent pitcher who should succeed in the majors, his unstable roto value means you need to remain open to including Ohka in a deal.

Shane Reynolds, RH Starter, ATL: +4.13 ERA
00-02	GS/G	IP	H/HR	K:BB	W-L/S	ERA
June	13/13	81.2	97/11	61:24	4-8/0	4.30
July	10/10	52.1	78/8	30:17	2-7/0	8.43

03Jun	4/4	19/0	27/0	5:12	1-1/0	6.63

Reynolds impressed us when he first joined the Braves, but his control is vanishing and he's not winning many games even with the Braves' great offense supporting him. Unfortunately, not only is Reynolds' overall command deteriorating, he also owns a 1.25 G-F, easily the worst mark of his career. Given these negative current and historical trends, you should look to deal Reynolds since the potential qualitative damage will outweigh any wins he provides for your team.

Sir Sidney Ponson, RH Starter, BAL: +3.17 ERA
00-02	GS/G	IP	H/HR	K:BB	W-L/S	ERA
June	17/17	110	92/11	74:43	4-5/0	3.27
July	15/15	86.2	109/15	60:30	3-5/0	6.44

03Jun	5/5	37	35/2	23:12	4-1/0	3.16

Ponson's skills rank with those of Pedro, Loaiza, and Clemens at the top of the list of AL pitchers. Although his June stats seem somewhat similar to his normal ratios, his vastly improved walk and homer rates support his current ERA, and a current 5-start QA log of 45533 suggests we shouldn't see more than a brief slump next month. I'm not overly comfortable targeting him right now given that his current skills look very close to what he compiled in previous seasons, but you at least should wait in the hope that he can maintain his current pace.

Jim Brower, RH Reliever, SF: +2.94 ERA
00-02	GS/G	IP	H/HR	K:BB	W-L/S	ERA
June	6/24	66.2	59/7	51:30	5-4/0	3.65
July	7/21	54.2	72/16	35:24	1-4/0	6.59

03Jun	0/7	13.1	12:1	12:4	0-0/0	1.35

Long relievers, even those that pitch home games in PacBell, are among the riskiest pitchers to own in roto, especially when they suffer from generally questionable skills. However a career-best 2.12 G-F also makes him mildly safe to own even without good command. While I'd look to replace Brower if we owned him anywhere, I also would feel comfortable if we had to wait a couple weeks before upgrading that roster spot.

Darrell May, LH Starter, KC: +2.89 ERA
00-02	GS/G	IP	H/HR	K:BB	W-L/S	ERA
June	6/6	35	36/5	21:16	2-2/0	3.60
July	6/7	34.2	44/9	26:14	0-3/0	6.49

03Jun	4/5	27.1	31/1	12:5	0-3/0	4.28

May owns a current five-start QA log of 23333, so even though he possesses decent skills, he simply lacks the upside to post significant roto value for any extended period. Between his flyball tendency, weak dominance, and unfriendly home park, I see little reason to keep May rostered under any circumstances. His weak July a year ago only reinforces my belief that you should deal or cut him at your first available opportunity.

Paul Quantrill, RH Reliever, LA: +2.70 ERA
00-02	GS/G	IP	H/HR	K:BB	W-L/S	ERA
June	0/39	38.2	37/2	30:8	2-1/0	2.33
July	0/39	39.1	53/3	21:15	5-5/1	5.03

03Jun	0/12	11	5/0	5:1	1-0/0	1.64

Quantrill may demonstrate little dominance thanks to his 5.1 K/9, however he owns a 2.04 G-F and outstanding 4.75 K:BB. Although he won't vulture many wins for Los Angeles, the excellent pitchers next to him in the bullpen will keep his ERA from increasing notably by limiting inherited runners from scoring. He'll hold solid roto value even with an ERA double his current 1.60 and a WHIP sufficiently higher than this unbelievable .89, so wait, only benching him at worst even if Quantrill struggles for a few weeks.

Rocky Biddle, RH Closer, MON: +2.49 ERA
00-02	GS/G	IP	H/HR	K:BB	W-L/S	ERA
June	4/17	35	32/5	31:15	1-1/1	3.60
July	7/14	44.1	41/8	38:24	1-4/0	6.09

03Jun	0/11	12	11/0	14:5	0-1/6	3.00

Lee Francis Biddle looks like he'll close for Montreal for the next few seasons despite his 4.4 BB/9 as he also owns an 8.9 K/9 and 1.55 G-F. His previous problems don't concern me as we've seen his skills improve in each month of this season. If you need saves, feel free to acquire Biddle, as aside from the Smoltz, Gagne, and Wagner, Biddle looks like the most consistently effective NL closer who should hold his job through the end of the season.

Jon Garland, RH Starter, CHW: +2.25 ERA
00-02	GS/G	IP	H/HR	K:BB	W-L/S	ERA
June	7/13	53.1	50/8	32:19	3-2/0	3.71
July	10/21	71	74/11	37:39	4-6/1	5.96

03Jun	5/5	30.2	35/4	19:11	2-2/0	4.70

The most important detail when analyzing Garland is to remember he won't turn 24 until the last week of the season, at which time he likely will have pitched nearly 600 career innings since reaching the majors. While he hasn't shown any signs of dominance, he also only exceeded 104 pitches in one of his 15 starts this year, so he should remain a rotation anchor for the next few years in Chicago. Unfortunately he appears to lack the skills necessary to emerge as a top starter, but at least he occasionally compiles a couple impressive starts to tease both the Sox and his fantasy owners. See if you can deal Garland to anyone who still believes he can approach his expected upside over the balance of this season.

Internet Challenge

Given Ainsworth's long-term injury and our desperate need to improve our qualitative pitching marks, particularly our WHIP, we're going to burn one of our four remaining moves on another starting pitcher. While we really like Brandon Webb, Esteban Loaiza(680) is 70 cheaper, owns superior all-around skills, pitcher in front of a better defensive team in a better park for pitchers, and ranks as easily the most effective pitcher in baseball this year. The only real advantage of Webb is that Arizona gives starters over .5 runs per game more support, however even if Loaiza slumps in the second half, we no longer can justify not owning him here, especially since we believe Chicago's offense will improve in the near future. He also normally excels over the last couple months of the year, so he'll join our team as we cut Jose Hernandez.

Even though Ainsworth likely won't contribute again this year, we might run into a weekend with only five starts where he'll help save cap room, while with ARod, Nomar, and Orlando Cabrera, we don't need another shortstop. Hernandez's value also disappeared upon his trade as we expect him to fight for playing time even if he Chicago deals him elsewhere. Ainsworth remains a slightly superior strategic option, so he'll remain on our team.

SP(6)
Kevin Millwood: Sun:@BAL(R.Helling)
Kerry Wood: Sun:@CHW(E.Loaiza)
Kevin Brown: Fri:@ANA(J.Lackey)
Roy Halladay: Fri:MON(L.Hernandez)
Jason Schmidt: Sun:OAK(M.Mulder)
Esteban Loaiza: Sun:CHC(K.Wood)

No starts: Randy, Pedro, Schilling, Morris, Oswalt, Mussina, Prior, and Ainsworth.

On our ever-diminished bench, we still own Vlad, and Durazo joins him due to the DH. Since steals remain a strong category for us, Dave Roberts will stay reserved since we have the cap room to run Orlando Cabrera, Aaron Boone, and Carl Everett; all three of those players provide much more power upside than Roberts.

While we leave 600+ of cap room on the table, we can't fix that without severely limiting our flexibility for the rest of the season. Plus, this appears more of a scheduling fluke as Pedro, Morris, and Mussina just pitched, and Randy, Schilling, and Oswalt all should return within a month.

The Umpire Hunter(13th lg; 287th overall)
Week 13b: June 27-June 29

C	Jorge Posada		1120
C	Toby Hall		460
1B	Todd Helton		1850
1B	Aubrey Huff		610
2B	Alfonso Soriano		1460
2B	Luis Castillo		1210 
3B	Aramis Ramirez		820
3B	Hank Blalock		500
SS	Alex Rodriguez		2010
SS	Nomar Garciaparra	1330
OF	Lance Berkman		1640
OF	Manny Ramirez		1610
OF	Preston Wilson		1220 
OF	Carl Everett		850
OF	Hideki Matsui		750
OF	Austin Kearns		650 
DH	Orlando Cabrera		1030 
DH	Aaron Boone		1010

SP	Kevin Millwood		1010
SP	Kerry Wood		990
SP	Kevin Brown		990
SP	Roy Halladay		890
SP	Jason Schmidt		790
SP	Esteban Loaiza		680
RP	Eric Gagne		1430
RP	Scott Williamson	960
RP	Mike MacDougal		750
RP	Tim Worrell		740

Total Salary for Week 13b: 	29360

Pitchers whose ERAs normally rise between 1.50 and 2.15 points in July include Joe Beimel(+2.13 ERA), Garrett Stephenson(+2.03), Rheal Cormier(+1.98), Mariano Rivera(+1.70), Eddie Guardado(+1.69), and Ben Sheets(+1.63).

Currently injured players who qualified include Dave Veres(+2.84 ERA), Brian Moehler(+2.27), Todd Ritchie(+2.15), A.J. Burnett(+2.11), and Tony Armas, Jr.(+1.68).

Today's Fantasy Rx: Expect a few closers to change teams over the next few weeks, meaning current middle relievers like Francisco Cordero, Dave Weathers, Justin Speier, Julian Tavarez, and Leo Estrella might suddenly luck into a dozen or more save opportunities. While I don't expect any of these pitchers to enter next season as a primary closer, all of them currently look capable of holding a late-inning job through the end of the season. Try to sneak one or two of these guys onto your team now as they shouldn't hurt even if they aren't promoted.

Click here to read the previous article.

Please e-mail your comments to tim@rotohelp.com.



Rotohelp		2003 Pitching: Squashed JulyFlys by Tim Polko Today's Fantasy Rx On our last day of discussing July trends, today I'm reviewing pitchers who, over the past three years, saw their ERA increase by at least 1.50 from June to July. We only looked at pitchers who compiled at least a total of 30 IP in both months over the past three years. A few players qualified for today's list strictly due to their similar placement on last month's Junebugs list. Instead of discussing them in detail again, I'll briefly summarize my current recommendations before continuing with new players. Brad Penny, RH Starter, FLO: +3.68 ERA. June: wait. July: wait. Darren Oliver, LH Starter, COL: +2.45 ERA. June: wait. July: deal. Antonio Alfonseca, RH Reliever, CHC: +2.34 ERA. June: acquire. July: wait. Jose Mesa, RH Closer, PHI: +2.29 ERA. June: acquire. July: wait. Billy Koch, RH Closer, CHW: +1.58 ERA. June: acquire. July: deal. Odalis Perez, LH Starter, LA: +5.12 ERA 00-02 GS/G IP H/HR K:BB W-L/S ERA June 11/11 75 55/4 57:16 7-2/0 2.52 July 7/7 35.1 52/7 30:9 1-5/0 7.64 03Jun 5/5 31 30/5 22:5 0-3/0 4.65 While the Dodgers provide little run support for Perez, he also owns a 1.8 homer rate since the end of April despite a 2.07 G-F that ranks significantly better than his 1.36 from last season. Of course, his current 54524 five-start QA log still suggests significant upside, and his June problems a year ago seemed due to general fatigue at the time. Unless you only need to add wins to help your pitching, try to acquire Perez now while his value is low. Tomo Ohka, RH Starter, MON: +4.91 ERA 00-02 GS/G IP H/HR K:BB W-L/S ERA June 6/6 39 45/3 24:6 3-1/0 3.00 July 10/12 46.2 72/8 36:16 1-6/0 7.91 03Jun 5/5 23 36/6 13:6 2-2/0 7.04 Ohka suffers this year from the same problem that plagued him last June, an inconsistent defense that magnifies his tendency to allow too many hits. The other reason Ohka's current 4.97 ERA is more than twice as high as his 2002 mark is that his homer rate jumped from .9 to 1.5 this season. He can't compensate for that difference while allowing a greater number of baserunners, so although I believe he remains a competent pitcher who should succeed in the majors, his unstable roto value means you need to remain open to including Ohka in a deal. Shane Reynolds, RH Starter, ATL: +4.13 ERA 00-02 GS/G IP H/HR K:BB W-L/S ERA June 13/13 81.2 97/11 61:24 4-8/0 4.30 July 10/10 52.1 78/8 30:17 2-7/0 8.43 03Jun 4/4 19/0 27/0 5:12 1-1/0 6.63 Reynolds impressed us when he first joined the Braves, but his control is vanishing and he's not winning many games even with the Braves' great offense supporting him. Unfortunately, not only is Reynolds' overall command deteriorating, he also owns a 1.25 G-F, easily the worst mark of his career. Given these negative current and historical trends, you should look to deal Reynolds since the potential qualitative damage will outweigh any wins he provides for your team. Sir Sidney Ponson, RH Starter, BAL: +3.17 ERA 00-02 GS/G IP H/HR K:BB W-L/S ERA June 17/17 110 92/11 74:43 4-5/0 3.27 July 15/15 86.2 109/15 60:30 3-5/0 6.44 03Jun 5/5 37 35/2 23:12 4-1/0 3.16 Ponson's skills rank with those of Pedro, Loaiza, and Clemens at the top of the list of AL pitchers. Although his June stats seem somewhat similar to his normal ratios, his vastly improved walk and homer rates support his current ERA, and a current 5-start QA log of 45533 suggests we shouldn't see more than a brief slump next month. I'm not overly comfortable targeting him right now given that his current skills look very close to what he compiled in previous seasons, but you at least should wait in the hope that he can maintain his current pace. Jim Brower, RH Reliever, SF: +2.94 ERA 00-02 GS/G IP H/HR K:BB W-L/S ERA June 6/24 66.2 59/7 51:30 5-4/0 3.65 July 7/21 54.2 72/16 35:24 1-4/0 6.59 03Jun 0/7 13.1 12:1 12:4 0-0/0 1.35 Long relievers, even those that pitch home games in PacBell, are among the riskiest pitchers to own in roto, especially when they suffer from generally questionable skills. However a career-best 2.12 G-F also makes him mildly safe to own even without good command. While I'd look to replace Brower if we owned him anywhere, I also would feel comfortable if we had to wait a couple weeks before upgrading that roster spot. Darrell May, LH Starter, KC: +2.89 ERA 00-02 GS/G IP H/HR K:BB W-L/S ERA June 6/6 35 36/5 21:16 2-2/0 3.60 July 6/7 34.2 44/9 26:14 0-3/0 6.49 03Jun 4/5 27.1 31/1 12:5 0-3/0 4.28 May owns a current five-start QA log of 23333, so even though he possesses decent skills, he simply lacks the upside to post significant roto value for any extended period. Between his flyball tendency, weak dominance, and unfriendly home park, I see little reason to keep May rostered under any circumstances. His weak July a year ago only reinforces my belief that you should deal or cut him at your first available opportunity. Paul Quantrill, RH Reliever, LA: +2.70 ERA 00-02 GS/G IP H/HR K:BB W-L/S ERA June 0/39 38.2 37/2 30:8 2-1/0 2.33 July 0/39 39.1 53/3 21:15 5-5/1 5.03 03Jun 0/12 11 5/0 5:1 1-0/0 1.64 Quantrill may demonstrate little dominance thanks to his 5.1 K/9, however he owns a 2.04 G-F and outstanding 4.75 K:BB. Although he won't vulture many wins for Los Angeles, the excellent pitchers next to him in the bullpen will keep his ERA from increasing notably by limiting inherited runners from scoring. He'll hold solid roto value even with an ERA double his current 1.60 and a WHIP sufficiently higher than this unbelievable .89, so wait, only benching him at worst even if Quantrill struggles for a few weeks. Rocky Biddle, RH Closer, MON: +2.49 ERA 00-02 GS/G IP H/HR K:BB W-L/S ERA June 4/17 35 32/5 31:15 1-1/1 3.60 July 7/14 44.1 41/8 38:24 1-4/0 6.09 03Jun 0/11 12 11/0 14:5 0-1/6 3.00 Lee Francis Biddle looks like he'll close for Montreal for the next few seasons despite his 4.4 BB/9 as he also owns an 8.9 K/9 and 1.55 G-F. His previous problems don't concern me as we've seen his skills improve in each month of this season. If you need saves, feel free to acquire Biddle, as aside from the Smoltz, Gagne, and Wagner, Biddle looks like the most consistently effective NL closer who should hold his job through the end of the season. Jon Garland, RH Starter, CHW: +2.25 ERA 00-02 GS/G IP H/HR K:BB W-L/S ERA June 7/13 53.1 50/8 32:19 3-2/0 3.71 July 10/21 71 74/11 37:39 4-6/1 5.96 03Jun 5/5 30.2 35/4 19:11 2-2/0 4.70 The most important detail when analyzing Garland is to remember he won't turn 24 until the last week of the season, at which time he likely will have pitched nearly 600 career innings since reaching the majors. While he hasn't shown any signs of dominance, he also only exceeded 104 pitches in one of his 15 starts this year, so he should remain a rotation anchor for the next few years in Chicago. Unfortunately he appears to lack the skills necessary to emerge as a top starter, but at least he occasionally compiles a couple impressive starts to tease both the Sox and his fantasy owners. See if you can deal Garland to anyone who still believes he can approach his expected upside over the balance of this season. Internet Challenge Given Ainsworth's long-term injury and our desperate need to improve our qualitative pitching marks, particularly our WHIP, we're going to burn one of our four remaining moves on another starting pitcher. While we really like Brandon Webb, Esteban Loaiza(680) is 70 cheaper, owns superior all-around skills, pitcher in front of a better defensive team in a better park for pitchers, and ranks as easily the most effective pitcher in baseball this year. The only real advantage of Webb is that Arizona gives starters over .5 runs per game more support, however even if Loaiza slumps in the second half, we no longer can justify not owning him here, especially since we believe Chicago's offense will improve in the near future. He also normally excels over the last couple months of the year, so he'll join our team as we cut Jose Hernandez. Even though Ainsworth likely won't contribute again this year, we might run into a weekend with only five starts where he'll help save cap room, while with ARod, Nomar, and Orlando Cabrera, we don't need another shortstop. Hernandez's value also disappeared upon his trade as we expect him to fight for playing time even if he Chicago deals him elsewhere. Ainsworth remains a slightly superior strategic option, so he'll remain on our team. SP(6) Kevin Millwood: Sun:@BAL(R.Helling) Kerry Wood: Sun:@CHW(E.Loaiza) Kevin Brown: Fri:@ANA(J.Lackey) Roy Halladay: Fri:MON(L.Hernandez) Jason Schmidt: Sun:OAK(M.Mulder) Esteban Loaiza: Sun:CHC(K.Wood) No starts: Randy, Pedro, Schilling, Morris, Oswalt, Mussina, Prior, and Ainsworth. On our ever-diminished bench, we still own Vlad, and Durazo joins him due to the DH. Since steals remain a strong category for us, Dave Roberts will stay reserved since we have the cap room to run Orlando Cabrera, Aaron Boone, and Carl Everett; all three of those players provide much more power upside than Roberts. While we leave 600+ of cap room on the table, we can't fix that without severely limiting our flexibility for the rest of the season. Plus, this appears more of a scheduling fluke as Pedro, Morris, and Mussina just pitched, and Randy, Schilling, and Oswalt all should return within a month. The Umpire Hunter(13th lg; 287th overall) Week 13b: June 27-June 29 C Jorge Posada 1120 C Toby Hall 460 1B Todd Helton 1850 1B Aubrey Huff 610 2B Alfonso Soriano 1460 2B Luis Castillo 1210 3B Aramis Ramirez 820 3B Hank Blalock 500 SS Alex Rodriguez 2010 SS Nomar Garciaparra 1330 OF Lance Berkman 1640 OF Manny Ramirez 1610 OF Preston Wilson 1220 OF Carl Everett 850 OF Hideki Matsui 750 OF Austin Kearns 650 DH Orlando Cabrera 1030 DH Aaron Boone 1010 SP Kevin Millwood 1010 SP Kerry Wood 990 SP Kevin Brown 990 SP Roy Halladay 890 SP Jason Schmidt 790 SP Esteban Loaiza 680 RP Eric Gagne 1430 RP Scott Williamson 960 RP Mike MacDougal 750 RP Tim Worrell 740 Total Salary for Week 13b: 29360 Pitchers whose ERAs normally rise between 1.50 and 2.15 points in July include Joe Beimel(+2.13 ERA), Garrett Stephenson(+2.03), Rheal Cormier(+1.98), Mariano Rivera(+1.70), Eddie Guardado(+1.69), and Ben Sheets(+1.63). Currently injured players who qualified include Dave Veres(+2.84 ERA), Brian Moehler(+2.27), Todd Ritchie(+2.15), A.J. Burnett(+2.11), and Tony Armas, Jr.(+1.68). Today's Fantasy Rx: Expect a few closers to change teams over the next few weeks, meaning current middle relievers like Francisco Cordero, Dave Weathers, Justin Speier, Julian Tavarez, and Leo Estrella might suddenly luck into a dozen or more save opportunities. While I don't expect any of these pitchers to enter next season as a primary closer, all of them currently look capable of holding a late-inning job through the end of the season. Try to sneak one or two of these guys onto your team now as they shouldn't hurt even if they aren't promoted. Click here to read the previous article. Please e-mail your comments to tim@rotohelp.com.
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