Today's Fantasy Rx

Today I'm reviewing pitchers who, over the past three years, saw their ERA drop by at least 1.50 from June to July. We only looked at pitchers who compiled at least a total of 30 IP in both months over the past three years.

A few players qualified for today's list strictly due to their similar placement on last month's Squashed Junebugs list. Instead of discussing them in detail again, I'll briefly summarize my current recommendations before continuing with new players.

Jeff D'Amico, RH Starter, PIT: -5.87 ERA. June: deal.
July: wait.

Omar Daal, LH Starter, BAL: -3.79 ERA. June: deal him now.
July: deal or cut.

Gabe White, LH Reliever, CIN: -2.21 ERA. June: deal or cut.
July: deal or cut.

Keith Foulke, RH Closer, OAK, -2.10 ERA. June: wait.
July: acquire.

Todd Jones, RH Reliever, COL: -1.66 ERA. June: deal or cut.
July: deal or cut.

Miguel Batista, RH Starter, ARI: -2.78 ERA
00-02	GS/G	IP	H/HR	K:BB	W-L/S	ERA
June	11/20	76.2	84/12	52:42	3-7/0	6.34
July	9/12	60.2	51/8	35:17	3-4/0	3.56

03Jun	4/5	30.2	25/0	30:11	3-0/0	2.05

Few starters have impressed us this year like Batista as he rose from long relief upon entering Spring Training to emerging as a valued veteran starter and competing with Brandon Webb and Luis Gonzalez to represent Arizona at the All-Star game. Batista's pitched so well over the past month he can't even maintain his normal July improvement even if he doesn't allow an earned run all month. With a 34443 current QA log and a 1.82 G-F, I see little downside here and every reason to acquire Batista if you want to add a starting pitcher to your squad.

Pedro Martinez, RH Starter, BOS: -2.60 ERA
00-02	GS/G	IP	H/HR	K:BB	W-L/S	ERA
June	13/13	86.1	66/14	104:13	3-4/0	3.54
July	10/10	73.1	42/2	107:14	8-0/0	.86

03Jun	4/4	21.2	19/1	24:4	1-0/0	2.49

Pedro normally enters posts ridiculously superhuman numbers in July, and with his homer rate already far better than normal this month, we can expect the same dramatic improvement as always. Boston's offense could propel him to six wins with a little luck. If you need starting pitching and can afford the understandably lofty asking price, you should acquire Pedro.

Scott Elarton, RH Starter, COL: -2.60 ERA
00-02	GS/G	IP	H/HR	K:BB	W-L/S	ERA
June	11/11	65.2	71/15	40:27	3-6/0	6.99
July	8/8	41	41/8	33:19	4-1/0	4.39

03Jun	5/5	26	42/8	8:9	2-2/0	7.62		

Although Elarton historically improves during the summer, pitching home games in Coors reduces his fantasy value to less than nothing. You should avoid him under any circumstances given his inconsistent skill and injury history, and his terrible current command merely reinforces my opinion. Deal or cut Elarton as the Rockies surely soon will make a similar move.

Rodrigo Lopez, RH Starter, BAL: -2.48 ERA
00-02	GS/G	IP	H/HR	K:BB	W-L/S	ERA
June	7/7	46.1	49/5	24:15	1-4/0	5.05
July	6/6	42	31/7	35:14	6-0/0	2.57

03Jun	3/3	14.1	20/3	3:6	1-1/0	8.16

Lopez returned from the DL a little over a week ago, however his 6.44 ERA on the season should leave his fantasy value very low. Fortunately he still owns a marginally acceptable 28:17 K:BB in 43.2 IP this season, and while he emerged rather suddenly last season, he also owns the skills necessary to remain in the majors for a few years. Look to acquire him since I doubt he'll cost less in trade at any other time this year.

Mike Remlinger, LH Reliever, ATL: -2.34 ERA
00-02	GS/G	IP	H/HR	K:BB	W-L/S	ERA
June	0/36	38.2	37/3	45:13	6-1/2	3.72
July	0/35	32.2	24/1	38:13	2-1/2	1.38

03Jun	0/13	12	10/4	22:7	1-1/0	6.75

Remlinger's historically best month appears more a product of superior defensive support than any obvious skill improvement. Of course, his 2003 skills make little sense as he's posting wonderful strikeout rates while allowing far more baserunners than normal. A 1.00 G-F in June also worries me since he posted a G-F of 1.32 or above in two of the last three seasons. I see enough upside here to justify a decision to wait on Remlinger for another month, however remain ready to make a move if his walk rate doesn't drop.

Paul Wilson, RH Starter, CIN: -2.30 ERA
00-02	GS/G	IP	H/HR	K:BB	W-L/S	ERA
June	5/11	40	46/11	25:10	0-3/0	5.18
July	7/14	56.1	55/3	45:15	3-1/0	2.88

03Jun	4/4	25.2	27/4	16:7	3-1/0	4.21

While you certainly can wait on Wilson if you need to keep as many starters rostered as possible, a 1.13 G-F in June just doesn't seem adequate protection against the obvious downside of pitching in the GAB. Between the Reds' inconsistent defense and the likelihood that his homer rate will rise, I simply don't see a logical rationale to retain Wilson in most standard leagues. At the very least explore a trade to see if you can convince another owner that Wilson's potential wins will more than offset any qualitative damage he causes.

Danny Wright, SP, CHW: -2.25 ERA
00-02	GS/G	IP	H/HR	K:BB	W-L/S	ERA
June	6/6	34	40/8	21:13	0-3/0	5.82
July	6/5	35.1	29/5	29:15	2-0/0	3.57

03Jun	4/4	23.2	16/3	15:12	0-0/0	3.42

We identified Wright as a logical breakout pitcher based on his impressive second-half skill improvement in 2002, however an unknown malady during Spring Training left Wright with seemingly psychosomatic arm problems for several weeks. I still really like his long-term upside, however his demonstrated skill level this year suggests a strong possibility of immediate qualitative problems. Look to deal Wright in single-season leagues, and owners in keeper leagues also should consider moving him unless you're rebuilding.

Pitchers whose ERAs normally drop between 1.50 and 2.20 points in July include Mike Timlin(-2.19 ERA), Octavio Dotel(-2.12), Steve Sparks(-2.10), Rick White(-2.09), Kelvim Escobar(-2.02), Mark Mulder(-1.98), Scott Sullivan(-1.95), Mark Prior(-1.92), Roger Clemens(-1.74), Esteban Yan(-1.70), Bartolo Colon(-1.57), Brian Lawrence(-1.54), Scott Schoeneweis(-1.52), and Javier Vazquez(-1.51).

Today's Fantasy Rx: We recently finalized our All-Star plans, and while we won't attend the game unless we unexpectedly find tickets, we plan to spend All-Star Sunday at Comiskey for the Futures Game. If you're interested in seeing some of the best young prospects in the minors, head here to purchase tickets.