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June
14th
2003
Your Daily Fantasy Rx
Rotohelp
NL LPR through 11 Weeks
by Tim Polko

Today's Fantasy Rx

Please check here for a complete description of these rankings. We've included the five most recent 2003 QA scores for each starter, along with the 10 most recent QA scores for each reliever, tabulating all data through June 12th.


123
abcxyz - Billy Wagner(5445335455)


12
ABCXY - Matt Morris(34545)
ABX - Woody Williams(45354)

Cabxyz - John Smoltz(5344545555)
axy - Joe Borowski(3434523544)

Borowski's domination continues as he earns a spot next to some of the best pitchers in the game. Odalis Perez essentially flipped spots with Morris, although we hope Perez will move back up next week.


13
ABCXZ - Kevin Brown(45545)

acy - Rheal Cormier(4330414434)


23
ABCXY - Roy Oswalt(34434)
BCYZ - Randy Johnson(4404)

bcyz - Jason Isringhausen
bcyz - Robb Nen


1
ABXY - Mark Prior(41424)
AX - Brandon Webb(33434)
X - Mark Redman(33344)
Shawn Chacon(21424) abxy - Eric Gagne(4325555553)
aby - Tim Spooneybarger(5543445223)
aby - Mike Koplove(5512353435)
ax - Trey Hodges(343355434)
Guillermo Mota(5442352435)

Kinney slips down as Chacon surprisingly returns despite neither consistent dominance nor effectiveness, however the real shock is that Webb qualified right before hitting the DL. Hodges upward mobility also continued as he joined several other excellent fantasy buys among NL relievers.


2
ABXY - Kevin Millwood(44335)
ABXY - Odalis Perez(25530)

bxyz - Steve Reed(2432354434)
cz - Jay Witasick


3
ABCX - Javier Vazquez(44044)
BCYZ - Brian Lawrence(02135)
BCYZ - Greg Maddux(23203)
CXZ - Brad Penny(33553)
BC - Al Leiter(32044)

bcyz - Scott Stewart(5235531425)
cxz - Jeff Fassero(5355235340)
cyz - Jose Mesa(4333232445)
c - Grant Roberts


A
BCXYZ - Curt Schilling(14433)
BXY - Matt Clement(33442)
BXy - Carlos Zambrano(33533)
XYz - Kip Wells(44355)
BX - Jason Schmidt(40444)
XZ - Darren Dreifort(44540)

B - Adam Eaton(40431)
X - Matt Kinney(54524)
X - Livan Hernandez(44443)
X - Brett Myers(33535)
X - Jeff Suppan(33402)
Horacio Ramirez(43344)
Kerry Wood(24413)
Salomon Torres(42215)
Michael Tejera(40104)
B
C - Wade Miller(40343)
Y - John Patterson(02)
Y - A.J. Burnett(4444)
z - Miguel Batista(43532 as starter)
Jake Peavy(33234)
Ben Sheets(33412)


C
X - Shane Reynolds(33533)
Z - Brandon Duckworth(33044)
Steve Trachsel(32424)
Pedro Astacio(31020)

Zbxy - Terry Adams(1323353343)
ax - Rocky Biddle(3334335253)
a - Juan Cruz(4535523304)


X
Y - Randy Wolf(34354)
Russ Ortiz(34524)
Kaz Ishii(43333)
Hideo Nomo(32334)
Jeff D'Amico(42333)
Brett Tomko(33104)
Darren Oliver(33333)
Tony Armas, Jr.(31443)

Padilla moved down as Webb, Glavine, Vargas, and Linebrink departed completely; fortunately the additions of Ishii, D'Amico, Tomko, and Oliver give us a new supply of consistently effective starters to target.


Y
cz - Vincente Padilla(00532)
Orlando Hernandez.


Z
None.


a
bcxyz - Octavio Dotel(4424443445)
bcxyz - Paul Shuey(4342443554)
bcxyz - Paul Quantrill(2342415535)
bcxy - Mark Guthrie(4443014351)
bcxz - Braden Looper(4431353444)
bcyz - Jose Jimenez(5434354325)
bcyz - Antonio Alfonseca(5243532443)
bxyz - Joey Eischen(2333343444)

bcx - Mike Myers(3553443440)
bcy - Armando Benitez(2545455415)
bcz - Scott Strickland(3454243434)
bxy - Tim Worrell(5344443333)
bxy - Ricky Stone(5543441333)
cxz - Kyle Farnsworth(2452544434)
cxz - Graeme Lloyd(4354430453)
bx - Matt Herges(3345502431)
by - Darren Holmes(0355054442)
by - Armando Almanza(2444435232)
bz - Scott Sauerbeck(5003544443)
cx - Curt Leskanic(3433555451)
cy - Chad Zerbe(3243244424)
cz - Joe Beimel(5305542344)
cz - Felix Rodriguez(4422302044)

x - Luis Ayala(2344445545)
x - Tom Martin(5455404042)
x - Javier Lopez(4255353345)
x - Leo Estrella(2553334345)
Julian Tavarez(4443345454)
Cal Eldred(3451444213)
T.J. Tucker(4342225552)
Joe Nathan(4432144502)
Kevin Gryboski(0133445433)
Brad Lidge(2355442332)
Jung Bong(4313232444)
Troy Brohawn(3342435241)


b
cz - Danny Graves(53421)
cz - John Riedling(00403)
y - Jonathan Johnson(1)
Carl Pavano(34344)
Zach Day(42032)

cxyz - Roberto Hernandez(3043433320)
cyz - Mike Remlinger(1402553453)
cyz - Mike Williams(3342354422)
cyz - Ray King(0304434234)
cyz - Todd Jones(3221413443)
cyz - Eddie Oropesa(333434)
cy - Trevor Hoffman
cz - Steve Kline(3205315305)
cz - Mike Lincoln
xy - Scott Williamson(4435332235)

c - Brian Fuentes(3323242533)
y - Chris Reitsma(4253443)
y - Luis Vizcaino(4054313242)
y - Mike Crudale(2323344531)
y - Hector Mercado(3112)
y - Jayson Durocher(3)
y - Joey Hamilton(1)
y - Dave Coggin
Justin Speier(30334423425)
Carlos Silva(5341350240)
Brian Boehringer(2432342324)
Toby Borland(2424332)
Gene Stechschulte


c
z - Josh Fogg(25304)
Nelson Cruz(31130)

z - Dave Weathers(5333114524)
z - Esteban Yan(2325340424)
z - Jason Christiansen
z - Kevin Walker
Dan Plesac(4044355125)
Scott Eyre(4343043334)
Jesse Orosco(0435324043)
Allen Levrault(2224342443)
Vic Darensbourg(32)
John Franco
Dave Veres(23333)


x
y - Matt Mantei(5255335342)
Kent Mercker(4433242354)
Mike Stanton(3544343403)
Turk Wendell(3344344024)
Tommy Phelps(3324334453)
Scott Service(3433553323)
Matt Ford(3453343323)


y
Mike DeJean(2445233452)
Brandon Puffer(2344322352)
Brandon Villafuerte(5345433411)


z
Paul Wilson(02344)


NL starters I recommend despite their failure to appear above include Kurt Ainsworth(04334), Kris Benson(04423), Elmer Dessens(24403), Shawn Estes(34433), Damian Moss(33303), Tomo Ohka(40442), Jae Seo(52243), and Dontrelle Willis(4305).

Other decent relievers include Kiko Calero, Oscar Villarreal, and Tosdd Wellemeyer.


We modified these ratings slightly since posting our team-by-team LPR scores in January. By reworking the A-Z and a-z ratings, we wanted to be able to easily identify effective starters rather than looking for truly dominant performers, of which we only found a few pitchers in any of the previous few seasons.

1 - K/9 of 6.0+, BB/9 of 3.0-, H/9 of 9.0-, HR/9 of 1.0-,
     and G-F of 1.0+ in 25+ IP in 2003.
2 - K/9 of 6.0+, BB/9 of 3.0-, H/9 of 9.0-, HR/9 of 1.0-,
     and G-F of 1.0+ in 25+ IP in 2002.
3 - K/9 of 6.0+, BB/9 of 3.0-, H/9 of 9.0-, HR/9 of 1.0-,
     and G-F of 1.0+ in 25+ IP in 2001.


QA score for starts: up to 5 total points, one for each statistical goal, to any starter who pitches at least 5 innings and fulfills any of the following skill qualifications: K>=IP-2, BB<=IP/3, H<=IP, HR<=1, and G-F>=1.00. Any starter who doesn't reach any of the required statistical goals or fails to pitch 5 innings earns a 0 QA score.

QA score for relief outings: up to 5 total points, one for each statistical goal, to any reliever who retires at least one batter and fulfills any of the following skill qualifications: K>=IP, BB=0, H<=IP, HR=0, and G-F>=1.00. Any reliever who doesn't reach any of the required statistical goals or fails to retire a batter earns a 0 QA score.

Note: Starters must pitch in five games before scoring DOM or DIS ratings; relievers must appear in no less than 10 games before earning DOM/DIS consideration. All pitchers are evaluated as relievers aside from those who both reached 5 starts in a given season and qualified for DOM or DIS ratings.

A - QA score of 4 or 5 in at least 50% of 2003 starts
B - QA score of 4 or 5 in at least 50% of 2002 starts
C - QA score of 4 or 5 in at least 50% of 2001 starts

X - QA score below 3 in no more than 20% of 2003 starts
Y - QA score below 3 in no more than 20% of 2002 starts
Z - QA score below 3 in no more than 20% of 2001 starts

a - QA score of 4 or 5 in at least 50% of 2003 relief outings
b - QA score of 4 or 5 in at least 50% of 2002 relief outings
c - QA score of 4 or 5 in at least 50% of 2001 relief outings

x - QA score below 3 in no more than 20% of 2003 relief outings
y - QA score below 3 in no more than 20% of 2002 relief outings
z - QA score below 3 in no more than 20% of 2001 relief outings


Tomorrow, like every Sunday, we'll post our preview of the coming week's games and our CDM challenge lineups.


Today's Fantasy Rx: San Diego's most recent pitching staff shake-up involved another exchange of starting pitchers with Portland. Although Lawrence, Eaton, and Peavy remain locked in the rotation, Oliver Perez and Kevin Jarvis replaced Brian Tollberg and Carlton Loewer.

Jarvis only made three rehab starts, all at A+ Lake Elsinore, and while he pitched decently, we have no idea how he'll perform against advanced competition. However Perez posted a 3-3 record and 3.02 ERA on a 48:12 K:BB in 47.2 IP over 8 GS with 44 H and 6 HR at AAA Portland(PCL); he's ready to return to the majors, and he appears far more likely to echo his 2002 performance than the questionable stats he assembled at the beginning of this season. See if you can grab him cheaply before his value begins rising.


Click here to read the previous article.

Please e-mail your comments to tim@rotohelp.com.
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