Today's Fantasy Rx

We're making one minor change to this week's list. As a starter with a 1 ranking looks better right now than one with a 23, we've reworked the upper section of the rankings to better reflect the current potential of these pitchers. Specifically, we've removed the 123, 12, 13, and 12 categories, instead folding the LIMA designations under the straight 1, 2, and 3 rankings.

Please check here for a complete description of these rankings. We've included the five most recent 2003 QA scores for each starter, along with the 10 most recent QA scores for each reliever, tabulating all data through June 11th.

1
23ABCYZ - Pedro Martinez(34450)
3ABCXZ - Roger Clemens(23245)
ABX - Sir Sidney Ponson(33535)
AX - Esteban Loiaza(24354)

23abcxyz - Arthur Rhodes(5344555453)
abcxyz - Jason Grimsley(4443340534)
axy - Scot Shields(5424044554)
ac - Aaron Fultz(0434233254)
Travis Harper(3343333414)

The return of both Clemens and Grimsley to this level combines with our ranking modification to give us a fairly accurate picture of the most skilled pitchers in the American League right now. I suspect some of these relievers remain available in many leagues, and while guys like Grimsley, Fultz, and Harper likely won't exceed about $5 of value, they also should earn at least a few bucks.

2
3ABCXYZ - Roy Halladay(45455)
3ACY - Mark Mulder(44303)
Abcyz - Byung-Hyun Kim(52342)

3abcxyz - Mariano Rivera(4424335445)
3bcyz - Buddy Groom(0433224105)
abcxyz - Keith Foulke(5332435423)
abcxy - Chad Bradford(5354444444)
abxy - LaTroy Hawkins(3442444425)
abxy - Francisco Cordero(3544544231)
bcyz - Ricardo Rincon(5343515142)
abx - Damaso Marte(5243433443)
bcy - Alan Embree(3445341355)

Rivera remains a couple weeks away from moving upward given his recent usage patterns, however I see no problem running anyone here aside from perhaps Groom. Bradford in particular is red hot this month, and if anyone dropped him after a slow start, take advantage of that error to scoop up one of the more consistently effective relievers in the game. Also, expect Cordero to inherit the Rangers' closer role within the next week, however we wouldn't be surprised if Jeff Zimmerman or even Chan Ho Park wound up competing for Texas saves at some point before the season ends.

3
ABCYZ - Tim Hudson(43024)
AX - Mike Mussina(43334)
A - Joel Pineiro(53544)
C - Kevin Appier(04431)
C - John Burkett(13301)
Freddy Garcia(42434)

bcyz - Steve Karsay
bcyz - Bob Wickman
by - Cliff Politte(3143343325)
cz - Ramiro Mendoza(4241203552)

Ignoring the irregular win patterns of both pitchers, Mussina looks much stronger than Hudson right now even though their stats seem somewhat similar. The success of Pineiro and Garcia surprises me to some extent, however all the Mariners' starters look very solid. Politte's skills remain decent despite his ever-climbing ERA of the past week, so stick with him since we don't believe he possesses much trade value right now.

A
Cab - Kelvim Escobar(04045 as a starter)
X - Ismael Valdes(33444)
Adam Bernero(44444)
Kyle Lohse(35345)
Gil Meche(45224)
Danny Wright(40404)
Joaquin Benoit(50401)

Moyer drops down again as we see a strong surge of recently healthy and successful starting talent here. Escobar's performed shockingly well and could help many fantasy teams, and Valdes, Bernero, Lohse, and Meche continue their relatively consistent dominance. Wright may not linger long at this level, but we really liked him prior to the season and believe he could be emerging as we originally suspected he might now that he appears rested and recovered from his Spring Training arm problems.

B
YZ - Tim Wakefield(44400)
Ycz - Derek Lowe(34335)
Y - Mark Buehrle(34350)
Y - Jeff Weaver(21333)
Z - Andy Pettitte(30550)
Bartolo Colon(43434)
Casey Fossum(45210)
Rodrigo Lopez(03130)

Mickey Callaway(4453145332)

Callaway and Fossum joined Lopez on the DL this week, and we also saw some poor performances from Wakefield, Buehrle, Weaver, and Pettitte. The only safe pitchers here are Lowe and Colon, however the value of Buehrle and Weaver should continue to drop despite both pitchers possessing promising track records and historically decent skills. Both pitchers could struggle for the rest of the season, however I suspect at least one will rebound to his former $15+ level of effectiveness.

C
Z - Chan Ho Park(33300)
Z - Jon Lieber
Cory Lidle(34531)
John Thomson(42335)
Jake Westbrook(42544 in relief)

Z - Brandon Lyon(2515425344)
Rick Bauer(2323553503)

We also see few changes here other than a poor outing for Lidle, however Westbrook looks quite good since moving to the bullpen. Anyone trolling for inexpensive relief help should consider adding him, although I suspect you can acquire a less risky pitcher fairly easily.

X
Y - David Wells(32332)
Jamie Moyer(34453)
Jeremi Gonzalez(43343)

The emergence of Gonzalez doesn't qualify as truly shocking since he's compiled impressive minor league numbers over the past few years. Unfortunately he won't help many roto teams since he shouldn't win many games and doesn't display sufficient dominance for us to unilaterally recommend him to teams seeking a qualitative boost.

Y
cz - Victor Zambrano(23244 as a starter)

Z
Jon Garland(43505)
Barry Zito(43422)

a
bcxyz - Mike Timlin(2353544444)
bcxyz - Tom Gordon(5334444234)
bcxyz - Kazuhiro Sasaki(4555334543)
bcxz - Jim Mecir(3455435244)
bcxz - Jeff Nelson(353154453)
bcyz - Billy Koch(4444452342)
bcyz - Troy Percival(45334422542)
bxy - Eddie Guardado(3434443424)

bc - Kelly Wunsch(4444303034)
bx - Brendan Donnelly(5333534534)
cx - David Riske(4534442444)
xy - Jorge Julio(2235544324)
xz - Shigetoshi Hasegawa(5534524443)
xz - Mike Venafro(3324443243)
x - Danys Baez(3452555454)
x - Mike MacDougal(4444434334)
x - Aquilino Lopez(3354433524)
z - Sean Lowe(4424533524)
Chris Spurling(5434444144)
Franklyn German(2535305434)
B.J. Ryan(0354434020)
Mike Neu(4224524322)

The most significant change here is Jim Mecir's continued recovery from surgery, but B.J. Ryan's fall from his outstanding April is more surprising to me. Sasaki's injury also caused shuffling at the top of this ranking, but I'm not surprised to see Majority WHIP Mike Timlin move up given his dominance in recent weeks.

b
y - Omar Daal(24430)
y - Brian Anderson(41430)
y - Jeremy Affeldt(22430)
y - Mark Hendrickson(33300)

cyz - Ugueth Urbina(4434543123)
cyz - Rick White(1220205444)
yz - Ben Weber(1433242445)
yz - Gary Glover(1322331043)
yz - Mike Fetters(43344)
x - Brian Shouse(5332433443)
y - Chris Hammond(4342543444)
y - J.C. Romero(3444141403)
y - Albie Lopez(4422021212)
Julio Mateo(3442143034)
Scott Schoeneweis(0554342203)
Travis Driskill(223013243)

Only Urbina, Weber, Shouse, and Hammond look relatively good right now, so while these pitchers definitely displayed skill upside last season, we're disappointed in most of their performances this year.

c
xz - Dan Miceli(3543455554)
yz - Jeff Tam(3433513523)
z - Willis Roberts(0503434455)
z - Al Levine(5325344352)
z - Kris Wilson(2342332435)
z - Rudy Seanez(33250)
z - Chad Fox(2413455332)
z - Danny Patterson
z - Jeff Zimmerman
Tanyon Sturtze(2423445322)
Giovanni Carrara(3034223242)

Miceli's pitched great since joining Cleveland, and Willis Roberts also looks like a good pick-up given his recent effectiveness.

x
Jason Boyd(1532435345)
R.A. Dickey(2355533234)
Steve Avery(4534133330)
Francisco Rodriguez(1313553333)

Baseball Prospectus' Will Carroll finally appeared on ESPN's Outside the Lines last Sunday after three aborted attempts the previous week thanks to Corkgate. Although Will acquitted himself admirably, we suffered through Leo Mazzone citing the early 90's Atlanta rotation as a model of health and longevity yet grouped Steve Avery with Glavine and Smoltz to support his methods. Avery pitching over 210 innings at 21, over 233 innings at 22, and over 233 innings at 23. Over those three seasons he compiled a 47-25 record and a 3.17 ERA, but since 1993 he hasn't posted a single-season ERA below 4.00, exceeded 175 innings, or won more than 10 games in a year. Mazzone might own the strongest Hall of Fame case of any active coach, however Avery is a primary exhibit of his failure to properly protect his charges.

Of course, now Avery, who only turned 33 in April, looks like a somewhat serviceable reliever for Detroit, but he should have remained Atlanta's fourth ace if not for the early abuse. He also hasn't been a useable fantasy option in a decade, and Avery currently doesn't own the skills necessary to merit ownership in nearly any league.

y
Johan Santana(44 as a starter)
Dave Elder(4401)

z
Jay Powell(2242223330)
Mark Wohlers

AL starters I recommend despite their failure to appear above include Jeremy Bonderman(42403), Nate Cornejo(23432), Jason Davis(52334), John Lackey(34245), Mike Maroth(22403), Kenny Rogers(32404), and Jarrod Washburn(34241).

Other decent relievers include D.J. Carrasco, Lance Carter, Jesus Colome, and Michael Nakamura.

We modified these ratings slightly since posting our team-by-team LPR scores in January. By reworking the A-Z and a-z ratings, we now can easily identify effective starters rather than looking for truly dominant performers, of which we only found a few pitchers in any of the previous few seasons.

1 - K/9 of 6.0+, BB/9 of 3.0-, H/9 of 9.0-, HR/9 of 1.0-,
     and G-F of 1.0+ in 25+ IP in 2003.
2 - K/9 of 6.0+, BB/9 of 3.0-, H/9 of 9.0-, HR/9 of 1.0-,
     and G-F of 1.0+ in 25+ IP in 2002.
3 - K/9 of 6.0+, BB/9 of 3.0-, H/9 of 9.0-, HR/9 of 1.0-,
     and G-F of 1.0+ in 25+ IP in 2001.

QA score for starts: up to 5 total points, one for each statistical goal, to any starter who pitches at least 5 innings and fulfills any of the following skill qualifications: K>=IP-2, BB<=IP/3, H<=IP, HR<=1, and G-F>=1.00. Any starter who doesn't reach any of the required statistical goals or fails to pitch 5 innings earns a 0 QA score.

QA score for relief outings: up to 5 total points, one for each statistical goal, to any reliever who retires at least one batter and fulfills any of the following skill qualifications: K>=IP, BB=0, H<=IP, HR=0, and G-F>=1.00. Any reliever who doesn't reach any of the required statistical goals or fails to retire a batter earns a 0 QA score.

Note: Starters must pitch in five games before scoring DOM or DIS ratings; relievers must appear in no less than 10 games before earning DOM/DIS consideration. All pitchers are evaluated as relievers aside from those who both reached 5 starts in a given season and qualified for DOM or DIS ratings.

A - QA score of 4 or 5 in at least 50% of 2003 starts
B - QA score of 4 or 5 in at least 50% of 2002 starts
C - QA score of 4 or 5 in at least 50% of 2001 starts

X - QA score below 3 in no more than 20% of 2003 starts
Y - QA score below 3 in no more than 20% of 2002 starts
Z - QA score below 3 in no more than 20% of 2001 starts

a - QA score of 4 or 5 in at least 50% of 2003 relief outings
b - QA score of 4 or 5 in at least 50% of 2002 relief outings
c - QA score of 4 or 5 in at least 50% of 2001 relief outings

x - QA score below 3 in no more than 20% of 2003 relief outings
y - QA score below 3 in no more than 20% of 2002 relief outings
z - QA score below 3 in no more than 20% of 2001 relief outings

We'll continue tomorrow with this week's NL LPR article.

Today's Fantasy Rx: Clemens might have a shot at winning 300 tonight after the Cardinals flipped Simontacchi with Morris, however even if he doesn't win, he at least should record his 4000th strikeout. Regardless, if you have access to the 7pm(EDT) game, we definitely recommend watching.