Today's Fantasy Rx

Continuing with our second day of examination of June trends, I'll review hitters who, over the past three years, lose at least .050 BA and .100 OPS from May to June. I focused on players who compiled 100 AB in both May and June over the past three years.

A few players qualified for today's list strictly due to a rebound from their placement on last month's Mayflowers list. Instead of discussing them in detail again, I'll briefly summarize my current recommendations before continuing with new players.

Todd Helton, 1B, COL: -.066 BA; -.303 OPS. May: acquire.
June: wait.

Wil Cordero, 1B, MON: -.082 BA/-.258 OPS. May: acquire.
June: deal.

Ryan Klesko, 1B, SD: -.064 BA/-.212 OPS. May: wait.
June: deal.

Roger Cedeno, OF, NYM: -.052 BA/-.197 OPS. May: acquire.
June: deal.

Ben Molina, C, ANA: -.120 BA/-.165 OPS. May: acquire.
June: wait.

Troy Glaus, 3B, ANA: -.111 BA; -.299 OPS
00-02	AB	BB:K	BA/OBP/SLG
May	296	57:76	.318/.431/.645
June	276	52:72	.207/.335/.442

03May	75	16:16	.333/.455/.764

Glaus normally starts the year quite hot, slumps throughout June and July, and then recovers towards the end of the year to finish compiling respectable stats. A .310/.409/.619 performance thus far in 2003 suggests he's on track for his normal pattern, however I see some impressive skill improvement here. He owns career-best marks of a .80 contact rate and 4.24 #P/PA, and his .80 G-F is far closer to his older ratios than the .94 G-F he managed last season. Glaus looks perfectly capable of maintaining at least an .800 OPS this summer, well above his historical sub-.700 OPS, so current owners likely should wait given his extreme quantitative upside.

Pat Burrell, OF, PHI: -.078 BA; -.259 OPS
00-02	AB	BB:K	BA/OBP/SLG
May	205	31:61	.322/.406/.615
June	295	42:81	.244/.338/.427

03May	69	17:24	.188/.352/.536

Unfortunately this slump likely will continue for most of the summer as Philadelphia spends June against the current leaders of the AL West, AL East, and NL East, along with facing the reigning World Series champs, and AL West Champion. The only respite involves weekend road trips to Cincinnati and Baltimore, however six games against weak pitching won't compensate for eighteen contests against half of the best teams in baseball. Burrell likely won't rebound any time soon, but unless you can move him at his preseason value, your need to wait until his trade value starts rising around the All-Star break when he faces weaker opposition.

Preston Wilson, OF, COL: -.098 BA; -.240 OPS
00-02	AB	BB:K	BA/OBP/SLG
May	313	37:85	.291/.374/.527
June	269	23:80	.193/.260/.401

03May	88	7:15	.295/.354/.614

We can't expect Wilson's normal June swoon since instead of facing the slate of strong opposing pitching, he'll see four home series against Cleveland, Kansas City, San Diego, and Detroit while Colorado visits Minnesota, Detroit, San Diego, and Pittsburgh. I see significant offensive upside for Wilson in all eight of these series. Although he might slump now as the Rockies conclude two weeks against the great pitching of Los Angeles and San Diego, I believe Wilson easily could improve his numbers this June. Historical performance just isn't enough in this case to convince me he won't demolish the shallow pitching staffs he'll face, so you might even want to acquire Wilson now if you need offensive help.

Omar Vizquel, SS, CLE: -.060 BA; -.168 OPS
00-02	AB	BB:K	BA/OBP/SLG
May	310	48:34	.313/.403/.432
June	300	30:38	.253/.324/.343

03May	84	12:7	.226/.323/.310

I don't blame Vizquel for this performance after Cleveland completely dismantled a team that almost won the seventh game of a World Series, leaving only Vizquel as the link to the championship years. Unfortunately fantasy owners can't join Vizquel in reminiscing five years in the past, and since his May numbers look even worse than his normal June line, I'm not sure if we'll see a rebound from him in Cleveland. Of course he still possesses solid base skills that suggest he could match his performance from past years, but unless you're convinced the Indians soon will move him to a contender, try to deal Vizquel now while he retains a large portion of his preseason value .

Todd Walker, 2B, BOS: -.050 BA; -.148 OPS
00-02	AB	BB:K	BA/OBP/SLG
May	200	22:23	.315/.384/.450
June	162	9:23	.265/.297/.389

03May	86	6:7	.372/.400/.488

Walker slumps in June largely due to an erosion of his plate discipline, and I simply don't see happening to him while playing for a sabermetrically-focused organization like Boston. His batting average will slide next month and he should lose more playing time to Bill Mueller, but the Red Sox feel Walker is a key part of their lineup who perfectly fills their #2 hole. Although I don't agree with that assessment based on his limited overall skills, he's a solid contributor for both Boston and his fantasy owners, so wait to see if he can avoid his normal struggles now that he plays for coaches that should catch any waning concentration while batting.

Miguel Cairo, 2B/OF, STL: -.066 BA; -.144 OPS
00-02	AB	BB:K	BA/OBP/SLG
May	144	13:21	.299/.356/.382
June	133	12:18	.233/.301/.293

03May	30	1:4	.267/.290/.333

Fernando Vina's injury makes Cairo the de facto starting second baseman, but we really don't know how he'll respond to the move from his superutility role into the first regular playing time for him since 2000. He's neither a patient hitter nor a speedy player any more, and while I like the upside suggest by a career-best .77 G-F, I don't see Cairo contributing much power to the Cardinals' offense. Although he receives a short-term boost in value, anyone that grabs him now should look to deal Cairo within the next few weeks as I don't expect he'll perform at the level necessary to secure a starting job indefinitely.

Other qualifying players who don't start every day include Daryle Ward(-.087 BA/-.244 OPS), Gabe Kapler(-.071/-.237), Bobby Estalella(-.053/-.205), Denny Hocking(-.083/-.174), Mark McLemore(-.060/-.160), Ron Coomer(-.083/-.144), Brian Daubach(-.067/-.133), and Chris Gomez(-.069/-.119). These are not players you should target in the near future.

Currently injured players who qualified include Fernando Vina(-.054 BA/-.207 OPS), Doug Glanville(-.058/-.172), Rey Sanchez(-.062/-.147), Marty Cordova(-.066/-.133), and Dean Palmer(-.055/.-.111).

Today's Fantasy Rx: Few significant hitters appear to notably decline this month while a couple dozen of baseball's best offensive producers normally explode this month. Minimize the damage from this normal June trend by benching your questionable pitchers against good offenses whenever possible.