Today's Fantasy Rx

I'm going to spend the first four days of this week on players whose June performances generally differ dramatically from their stats in May. To qualify for consideration, a position player must have at least 100 AB in both May and June over the last three years, and show a change, positive or negative, of .050 BA and .100 OPS between the two months.

Today we'll focus on improving hitters, tomorrow will be declining hitters, and then we'll spend the following two days on improving and then declining pitchers.

A few players qualified for today's list strictly due to their similar placement on last month's Wilting Mayflowers list. Instead of discussing them in detail again, I'll briefly summarize my current recommendations before continuing with new players.

Paul Konerko, 1B, CHW: +.131 BA/+.414 OPS. May: acquire.
June: acquire.

Mike Lowell, 3B, FLO: +.062 BA/+.222 OPS. May: wait.
June: wait.

Moises Alou, OF, CHC: +.081 BA/+.275 OPS. May: wait.
June: acquire.

Jay Gibbons, OF, BAL: +.079 BA/+.243 OPS. May: deal.
June: acquire.

Eli Marrero, C/OF, STL: +.061 BA/+.117 OPS. May: wait.
June: wait.

Derrek Lee, 1B, FLO: +.065 BA; +.334 OPS
00-02	AB	BB:K	BA/OBP/SLG
May	292	20:75	.240/.293/.401
June	256	42:53	.305/.407/.621

03May	73	11:23	.205/.314/.438

After stealing 10 bases in 10 attempts while posting a solid .272/.387/.456 April line, Lee slumped rather badly this month, managing only one steal along with dropping his overall BA to .239. Yet given his solid plate discipline and past trends, I can't imagine a better time to acquire him. Convince his owner that he won't see any more steals from Lee and that the Marlins' lack of baserunners will translate into decreasing RBI opportunities and you should be able to snag someone approaching his first 30-homer season. I'm concerned about his 1.27 G-F, which reverses a promising three-year trend, but Lee looks ready to explore in June, particularly if he soon moves to a team needing an offensive boost at first base like Arizona.

Ken Griffey, Jr., OF, CIN: +.115 BA; +.251 OPS
00-02	AB	BB:K	BA/OBP/SLG
May	107	33:26	.196/.399/.430
June	177	34:30	.311/.425/.655

03May	31	5:8	.323/.432/.677

Griffey fairly shocked us by returning from his injury so quickly, and his performance both in early April and May suggests he could produce impressive numbers the rest of the way even with his normal June decline. The GAB will benefit him just as it's allowed his fellow outfielders to lead the league in homers, and anyone with a .72 G-F will rack plenty of homers in the Reds' new home. Particularly if you need power, Griffey looks like an excellent target to acquire for the next couple of weeks.

Jeff Kent, 2B, HOU: +.102 BA; +.250 OPS
00-02	AB	BB:K	BA/OBP/SLG
May	320	42:62	.300/.379/.525
June	306	43:45	.402/.478/.676

03May	82	11:16	.366/.438/.598

After a generally unimpressive April, Kent normally alternates months with an OPS in the .850-.900 range with a couple months over 1.000. Playing home games in Minute Maid should boost these numbers above his three-year trends from San Francisco, and while his .300/.349/.520 from April looked good, his May performance suggests he could reach career-bests in several categories. Kent looks positioned to build on his superb current marks, making him an excellent candidate to acquire for across-the-board help, although he'll provide the biggest boost in average and RBI thanks to his great lineup slot.

A.J. Pierzynki, C, MIN: +.068 BA; +.244 OPS
00-02	AB	BB:K	BA/OBP/SLG
May	132	4:24	.280/.324/.386
June	155	9:25	.348/.386/.568

03May	71	6:12	.338/.347/.535

Pierzynski generally posts an OPS above .800 only in June, so his excellent May is rather shocking, especially when we consider his 1.70 G-F remains above his career norm. We can explain his solid average in consideration of his career-best .92 contact rate, a significant improvement on his .86 average contact rate, however I see no rationale for his increased power level. Perhaps he's taking advantage of the correlation between turning 26 last December and beginning his third season as the Twins' starter, but I like his stat trends and believe he should reach double-digit homers and exceed his career-high of 55 RBI and 54 runs. If you need catching, try to acquire Pierzynski before his historically best month.

Magglio Ordonez, OF, CHW: +.083 BA; +.237 OPS
00-02	AB	BB:K	BA/OBP/SLG
May	273	30:43	.282/.351/.509
June	301	45:37	.365/.443/.654

03May	80	5:12	.288/.345/.475

Ordonez and Carlos Lee combined to post a 128:150 BB:K in 1082 at-bats last year, and they currently share a meager 24:57 BB:K in 351 AB in 2003, a sharp departure from their previously excellent respective plate disciplines. Of course the lower walk rate is really the only change between Ordonez and historical standards a he normally posts an OPS around .870 for two months before excelling every June. So although I don't see as much upside here as in past seasons, Ordonez appears on track at least to approach his 2001 stat line of a .305/.382/.533 with 31 HR, 113 RBI, and 97 runs; only his double-digit steals seem gone for good.

Larry Walker, OF, COL: +.067 BA; +.198 OPS
00-02	AB	BB:K	BA/OBP/SLG
May	218	42:35	.317/.431/.550
June	245	38:36	.384/.469/.710

03May	51	22:9	.196/.453/.294

Walker obviously explodes in June most years, however I just don't envision him matching his previous performance at age 36. Although he's posting easy career-best marks of a .25 walk rate and 3.77 #P/PA, a 2.06 G-F is disastrous compared to his 1.48 norm, and he hasn't posted a contact rate worse than his current .79 in over a decade. Frankly I have no idea how Walker will perform over the next few months given these wildly diverging trends. You likely should wait to take any action as he possesses sufficient plate discipline to overcome his skills deficiencies, yet his reduced contact rate and power potential could leave him sadly lacking quantitatively.

Chipper Jones, OF, ATL: +.071 BA; +.197 OPS
00-02	AB	BB:K	BA/OBP/SLG
May	277	41:43	.274/.368/.505
June	290	53:48	.345/.439/.631

03May	82	20:13	.280/.419/.488

Larry already owns excellent skills and stats this year, including a career-best .90 G-F, and he will continue hitting behind the National League's second, seventh, and fifteenth best hitters. Not only does he look ready for a true power breakout that might let him approach career-highs in every quantitative category, but Jones looks nicely positioned for an MVP run if Sheffield slows in the second half as usual. If you need to add an outfield bat, try to acquire Chipper, especially since you even might find a small discount since he hasn't posted a batting average below .300 since 1997.

Dan Wilson, C, SEA: +.062 BA; +.194 OPS
00-02	AB	BB:K	BA/OBP/SLG
May	167	9:27	.246/.292/.329
June	146	7:27	.308/.342/.473

03May	47	2:6	.213/.245/.213

Wilson shares a non-traditional platoon with Ben Davis, however while both catchers merit starting jobs against left-handers, Davis continues to outplay Wilson against all pitchers. Catchers normally decline fairly rapidly in their mid-30s, and Wilson turned 34 in March. Of course Wilson still possesses reasonably good power potential, but Safeco also limits his quantitative upside. Definitely don't look to add Wilson this month, however wait if you already own him since you'll likely receive the greatest stat boost over the next few weeks.

Bobby Abreu, OF, PHI: +.078 BA; +.187 OPS
00-02	AB	BB:K	BA/OBP/SLG
May	286	52:50	.269/.380/.479
June	288	57:63	.347/.456/.590

03May	74	15:18	.243/.371/.446

Larry Bowa continues to waste Abreu in the lower half of the order, however at least hitting behind Thome and Burrell should allow Abreu to approach his customary 30 steals. Abreu belongs in the #2 hole or even hitting leadoff because of his consistently high OBPs, however he's performing below expectations due to surprising skill problems. A career-high 4.40 #P/PA suggests he might be seeing too many pitches for his lineup spot, but a career-worst 2.14 G-F is nearly 50% above his previous high of 1.53 in 1999; Abreu simply possesses little power potential whatsoever right now. His plate discipline will keep him useful to the Phillies, however we can't expect a great contribution from him in any category at this point. Abreu owners need to wait in the hope that either his skills return to normal in June, or he at least posts outwardly respectable stats to increase his trade value by the All-Star break.

Adam Kennedy, 2B, ANA: +.060 BA; +.157 OPS
00-02	AB	BB:K	BA/OBP/SLG
May	269	14:32	.268/.306/.383
June	268	18:39	.328/.383/.463

03May	70	6:14	.229/.299/.357

Kennedy's skill set still doesn't appeal to me, however he currently owns career-best marks of a .08 walk rate and a 3.99 #P/PA while maintaining a respectable .84 contact rate and .84 G-F; even his 75% SB success rate indicates more speed upside than usual. His weak performance thus far seems primarily a product of the Angels' general malaise and his injury-slowed start, so I see no reason why he won't excel for the next month. Try to acquire him at a discount if you need middle infield help or a small SB or BA boost.

Nomar Garciaparra, SS, BOS: +.057 BA; +.155 OPS
00-02	AB	BB:K	BA/OBP/SLG
May	147	12:18	.320/.364/.537
June	204	21:15	.377/.433/.623

03May	96	3:6	.354/.374/.667

Nomar enters today with a 25-game hitting streak, and while a .04 walk rate and career-worst 2.97 #P/PA indicate little plate discipline, a .91 contact rate suggests he's making not missing many pitches. His .75 G-F demonstrates his continued power potential, and Boston's lineup certainly provides him with many RBI opportunities. I doubt you can acquire him in many leagues, however if you have the opportunity to add the potential AL MVP, you should jump at the chance.

Qualifying players who posted an OPS improvement under .150 include Rafael Furcal(+.069 BA/+.149 OPS), David Segui(+.091/+.148), Jeff Cirillo(+.087/+.145), and Royce Clayton(+.066/+.126).

Other qualifying players who don't start every day include Timo Perez(+.063 BA/+.250 OPS), Ron Gant(+.050/+.229), Kevin Young(+.069/+.211), Benji Gil(+.084/+.186), Sandy Alomar, Jr.(+.061/+.168), and Bubba Trammell(+.060/+.132). Any of them would be a reasonable FAAB pickup this week.

Currently injured players who qualified include Matt Stairs(+.190 BA/+.261 OPS), Tyler Houston(+.058/+.227), Marvin Benard(+.105/+.174), Bernie Williams(+.062/+.146), and Rey Ordonez(+.056/+.101).

Today's Fantasy Rx: Three pairs of teammates could post mutually beneficial improvements this month. Chipper and Rafael Furcal in Atlanta, Mags and Paul Konerko on the White Sox, and Derrek Lee and Mike Lowell in Florida all should combine for truly impressive results given the relative nearness of each pair in their respective lineups. While only a managerial chance appears overly likely to boost Chicago's fortunes, and the Marlins could start dumping players at any time, Furcal and Chipper bookend the best second baseman and right fielder in the league, and that foursome allows Andruw Jones to rank second on the NL RBI board. We harbor concerns about the Braves' depth, particularly regarding their frontline pitching, however their offense should remain extremely productive until the All-Star break. Anyone seeking RBI or runs should target Braves.