Today's Fantasy Rx

We modified these ratings slightly since posting our team-by-team LPR scores in January. By reworking the A-Z and a-z ratings, we wanted to be able to easily identify effective starters rather than looking for truly dominant performers, of which we only found a few pitchers in any of the previous few seasons.

1 - K/9 of 6.0+, BB/9 of 3.0-, H/9 of 9.0-, HR/9 of 1.0-,
     and G-F of 1.0+ in 25+ IP in 2003.
2 - K/9 of 6.0+, BB/9 of 3.0-, H/9 of 9.0-, HR/9 of 1.0-,
     and G-F of 1.0+ in 25+ IP in 2002.
3 - K/9 of 6.0+, BB/9 of 3.0-, H/9 of 9.0-, HR/9 of 1.0-,
     and G-F of 1.0+ in 25+ IP in 2001.

QA score for starts: up to 5 total points, one for each statistical goal, to any starter who pitches at least 5 innings and fulfills any of the following skill qualifications: K>=IP-2, BB<=IP/3, H<=IP, HR<=1, and G-F>=1.00. Any starter who doesn't reach any of the required statistical goals or fails to pitch 5 innings earns a 0 QA score.

QA score for relief outings: up to 5 total points, one for each statistical goal, to any reliever who retires at least one batter and fulfills any of the following skill qualifications: K>=IP, BB=0, H<=IP, HR=0, and G-F>=1.00. Any reliever who doesn't reach any of the required statistical goals or fails to retire a batter earns a 0 QA score.

Note: Starters must pitch in five games before scoring DOM or DIS ratings; relievers must appear in no less than 10 games before earning DOM/DIS consideration. All pitchers are evaluated as relievers aside from those who both reached 5 starts in a given season and qualified for DOM or DIS ratings.

A - QA score of 4 or 5 in at least 50% of 2003 starts
B - QA score of 4 or 5 in at least 50% of 2002 starts
C - QA score of 4 or 5 in at least 50% of 2001 starts

X - QA score below 3 in no more than 20% of 2003 starts
Y - QA score below 3 in no more than 20% of 2002 starts
Z - QA score below 3 in no more than 20% of 2001 starts

a - QA score of 4 or 5 in at least 50% of 2003 relief outings
b - QA score of 4 or 5 in at least 50% of 2002 relief outings
c - QA score of 4 or 5 in at least 50% of 2001 relief outings

x - QA score below 3 in no more than 20% of 2003 relief outings
y - QA score below 3 in no more than 20% of 2002 relief outings
z - QA score below 3 in no more than 20% of 2001 relief outings

We've included the five most recent 2003 QA scores for each starter, along with the 10 most recent QA scores for each reliever, tabulating all data through May 8th.

123
None.

12
None.

13
AX - Mike Mussina(54455)
AX - Roger Clemens(44434)

Currently the best starters in the American League, Mussina and Clemens both look their best in years and prepared to fulfill the lofty expectations of Yankee fans. While age concerns lead me to believe one of these pitchers will see time on the DL at some point, there might not be a better starter to own right now in standard leagues thanks to the wins provided by the New York offense.

23
ABCXYZ - Roy Halladay(44343)
BCYZ - Pedro Martinez(02334)
ACY - Mark Mulder(34444)

abcxyz - Buddy Groom(0353554543)
bcxyz - Arthur Rhodes(3334253423)
bcyz - Mariano Rivera(3555)

Pedro's 48-50 G-F leaves him two groundballs short of leading this list, although Groom and Rhodes also will join him once they reach the IP minimum. Neither Halladay nor Mulder are excelling at the moment, although I see little wrong with either pitcher.

1
ABX - Sir Sidney Ponson(44434)
AC - Cory Lidle(24432)
AX - Esteban Loaiza(54523)
y - Scot Shields(52 as starter)

Sir Sidney's schedule limits his impressiveness as after a disastrous opening outing against Boston, he's faced Tampa, Cleveland, Chicago, Cleveland, and Kansas City. Loaiza's faced similar competition, however as Lidle's opposed the Yankees twice, Twins twice, Red Sox, Royals, Angels, and Rangers, he's the one pitcher here I expect to hold his ranking all season.

2
abcxyz - Keith Foulke(4434554330)
abcxy - Chad Bradford(4343544335)
abxy - LaTroy Hawkins(3445554405)
abxy - Francisco Cordero(2224354344)
bcyz - Ricardo Rincon(0233353053)
abx - Damaso Marte(3440435453)
bcy - Alan Embree(023333025)

Most of these guys look fairly strong this season, however no one's reached the IP minimum with impressive skills thus far.

3
ABCXYZ - Tim Hudson(35444)
C - John Burkett(40214)
C - Kevin Appier(04202)
Joel Pineiro(34434)
Freddy Garcia(32430)

bcyz - Steve Karsay
bcyz - Bob Wickman
by - Cliff Politte(5303335432)
cz - Ramiro Mendoza(1053423304)
z - Jeremy Fikac(1342203020)

This list obviously encompasses the widest variety of pitchers, from those who've spent all year injured like Karsay and Wickman, to top starters like Hudson and new closers like Politte. The only pitchers here I'd target are Hudson, Politte, Fikac, and maybe Garcia, however the past successes of these pitchers likely push their perceived value beyond the level at which I'd look to deal for them.

A
X - Gil Meche(24444)
X - Jason Johnson(54334)

Although both Meche and Johnson have more downside than Ponson, both pitchers share similar upside. Meche in particular could continue excelling this year, especially since he'll get significantly more run support than the Orioles.

B
XYZ - Tim Wakefield(33332)
Ycz - Derek Lowe(44030)
Y - Mark Buehrle(40433)
Y - Jeff Weaver(44302)
Z - Andy Pettitte(05250)
Bartolo Colon(44232)
Casey Fossum(42402)
Rodrigo Lopez(03130)

Mickey Callaway(244 as reliever)

Only Wakefield has displayed any consistency here this season, however these starters all possess enough upside to warrant ownership in any league. Any of them could begin a run of dominant starts at any time.

C
Z - Chan Ho Park(03330)
Z - Jon Lieber
Jake Westbrook(43222)
John Thomson(40323)

ab - Kelvim Escobar(0154254324)
Zx - Brandon Lyon(3332525535)
X - Rick Bauer(4213334353)

At least Bauer and Lyon both look like solid relievers, but Escobar, Park, Westbrook, and Thomson rank with the riskiest starters in the game, and I barely expect to see one of these four reach Positive Draft Value this year if their current paces continue.

X
Y - David Wells(43343)
Jamie Moyer(34433)
Runelvys Hernandez(33333)
Darrell May(30333)

Unlike the formerly dominant C pitchers listed immediately above, these four at least don't offer dramatic downside. Wells and Moyer certainly rank among the safest pitchers to own in the game, and while I'm intrigued that three of these four starters are left-handers, Hernandez is a perfectly solid pitcher to deploy in most weeks.

Y
cz - Victor Zambrano(43323 in relief)

Although he could rediscover some consistency in relief, wait to see him post good skills for a couple weeks before even considering him for your roster.

Z
Jon Garland(50323)
Barry Zito(04323)
Ryan Drese(02030)

While I'm also quite surprised to find the reigning AL Cy Young this far down the list, Zito is a flyball pitcher who doesn't demonstrate consistently excellent skills. He certainly merited $20+ bids this spring, however I wouldn't target him in trade right now any more than I'd look to acquire Garland or Drese.

a
bcxyz - Jason Grimsley(5344353534)
bcxyz - Troy Percival(5432343434)
bcxz - Jeff Nelson(1430555333)
bcyz - Mike Timlin(4452244333)
bcyz - Billy Koch(3142244124)

Apparently Koch has maintained a modicum of dominance despite his inconsitency, although the other four relievers up here are much better choices unless your only goal is saves. Grimsley and Timlin likely aren't owned in a majority of leagues, and both of them offer solid qualitative upside.

bxy - Eddie Guardado(4353353443)
byz - Ben Weber(4232354524)
bc - Kelly Wunsch(2245453235)
bx - Juan Acevedo(4544403144)
bx - Brendan Donnelly(5243434443)
xy - Jorge Julio(4543443442)

Acevedo's skills remain decent even as his ERA balloons, although the intriguing pitchers here are Weber, Wunsch, and Donnelly. Of course the Angels see nearly twice as many innings as Chicago's lefty, making them better bets for anyone looking to lower their ERA or WHIP.

c - Aaron Fultz(3554302423)
x - B.J. Ryan(4445444504)
x - Mike MacDougal(3443444325)
x - Francisco Rodriguez(3434334524)
x - Danys Baez(3552023445)
x - Aquilino Lopez(4345033254)
x - Franklyn German(4323442344)
z - Mike Venafro(3424055332)
Steve Sparks(3115344244)
Travis Harper(2040244254)

Ryan finally posted his first non-dominant appearance of the year, however the only pitcher here I wouldn't want to own in most standard leagues is Sparks due to his qualitative downside. Lopez, German, and Harper all rank among the top AL set-up men, and they each should see some save opportunities sometime this year.

b
y - Mark Hendrickson(42304)
y - Jeremy Affeldt(43300)
y - Omar Daal(04220)
y - Brian Anderson(22222)

Four pitchers who excelled in middle relief last year hold spot in AL rotations, however Daal and Anderson are far too risky to own. We like the upside of Hendrickson and Affeldt, although we also want to see improving results in the near future.

cxyz - Tom Gordon(0333355550)
cyz - Kazuhiro Sasaki(5545422313)
cyz - Ugueth Urbina(3324333244)
cyz - Rick White(2333423412)
cz - Jim Mecir(234)
yz - Mike Fetters(43344)
yz - Gary Glover(341324521)

Ignoring the closers, the only reliever here that looks safe to own is Gordon, and even he isn't demonstrating the level of skill I want to see.

x - Brian Shouse(3434304340)
y - Carl Sadler(4304334240)
y - J.C. Romero(2342423035)
y - Albie Lopez(335442202)
y - Chris Hammond(3342323232)
y - Al Reyes(3532)
z - Randy Choate(44330)
Scott Schoeneweis(4002325253)
Julio Mateo(2133334421)
Travis Driskill(2)

Unfortunately I can't wholeheartedly recommend any of these pitchers, although Sadler, Romero, Hammond, and Mateo look somewhat useful in very deep leagues.

c
Tanyon Sturtze(00300)

yz - Jeff Tam(3235422243)
x - David Riske(3344344342)
z - Willis Roberts(5353224033)
z - Chad Fox(2413455332)
z - Al Levine(42242533)
z - Kris Wilson(42342332)
z - Esteban Yan(2322325340)
z - Matt Anderson(0321133343)
z - Danny Patterson
z - Jeff Zimmerman
Bobby Seay(544442023)
Giovanni Carrara(3251233430)
Todd Van Poppel(2 in relief)

None of these pitchers are particularly good buys, although Riske, Roberts, and Wilson's outings all hint at solid upside. Fox should resume his high-wire act if he returns from the DL this year.

x
y - Johan Santana(4354432313)

He still looks like he should be starting, however his weak walk and G-F rates don't indicate a promising level of effectiveness as a reliever.

y
Dave Elder(44)

We expect him back on the Cleveland-Buffalo shuffle within a couple weeks.

z
Shigetoshi Hasegawa(5333234523)
Jay Powell(23232422)
Mark Wohlers

Hasegawa is a solid pick-up if still available, but I wouldn't want to own the other two under nearly any circumstances.

We'll continue tomorrow with this week's NL LPR article.

Today's Fantasy Rx: Ponson and Lidle may be two of the least recognized emerging studs in baseball. The value of Sir Sidney still suffers from injury concerns, and Lidle's never merited the respect of his former Oakland teammates or someone like Halladay, however both pitchers currently look healthy and are performing at a very impressive level. I'd be happy to acquire either in almost any league.