Today's Fantasy Rx

On our last day of discussing May trends, today I'm reviewing pitchers who, over the past three years, saw their ERA increase by at least 1.50 from April to May. We only looked at pitchers who compiled at least a total of 30 IP in both months over the past three years.

Willis Roberts, RH Reliever, BAL: +3.59 ERA
00-02	GS/G	IP	H/HR	K:BB	W-L/S	ERA
Apr	3/22	39.2	34/3	33:11	4-1/1	2.04
May	5/16	48	50/3	31:24	3-4/0	5.63

03Apr	0/9	13.2	12/2	8:2	2-1/0	3.95

Roberts generally struggles most of the remainder of the season following a strong April, and while his skills look fairly strong right now, you probably should deal him if Julio's owner is looking for a little insurance. I don't expect Roberts to maintain his currently respectable marks, and as historical trends suggest immediately pending problems, remove him from your team in the very near future.

Darren Oliver, LH Starter, COL: +3.53 ERA
00-02	GS/G	IP	H/HR	K:BB	W-L/S	ERA
Apr	14/15	85.2	102/7	56:25	7-3/0	4.73
May	13/13	56.2	83/14	29:33	3-5/0	8.26

03Apr	5/5	26.1	33/2	15:14	1-2/0	5.81

Unfortunately Oliver looks primed for a May disaster that should result in the Rockies actively employing current AAA starters. Oliver isn't displaying any impressive skills right now, and he seemed particularly ill-suited to Coors given his historically poor hit rate. We see some upside here, but the downside of deploying Oliver just isn't worth his limited potential. Of course you also shouldn't own Oliver in any leagues that count qualitative stats, but nevertheless deal him now before his stats grow truly ugly.

Albie Lopez, RH Reliever, KC: +3.46 ERA
00-02	GS/G	IP	H/HR	K:BB	W-L/S	ERA
Apr	8/21	69.2	67/2	42:38	5-6/0	3.49
May	7/19	55.2	77-9	29:21	1-7/2	6.95

03Apr	0/7	14.1	16/1	14:7	3-0/0	3.77

While Lopez looks fairly strong right now and we expected to see improvement this year, most Royals pitchers should struggle as the temperature rises, even those with a respectable 1.64 G-F. You simply can't risk owning him given his normal difficulties, especially since you should be able to deal him to anyone looking for a short-term wins boost. All his skills look solid right now, but this is exactly the type of player who quickly could disintegrate qualitatively in line with historical trends.

Steve Sparks, RH Reliever, DET: +3.18 ERA
00-02	GS/G	IP	H/HR	K:BB	W-L/S	ERA
Apr	10/10	68	65/5	30:27	3-4/0	3.18
May	11/12	63.2	90/9	22:19	3-3/0	6.36

03Apr	0/7	16	14/0	7:5	0-0/0	3.94

Detroit actually owns a respectable rotation, so they can reserve Sparks for the occasionally necessary extended long relief outings. Unfortunately the 2003 Tigers seem to follow Murphy's law quite closely, and a .86 G-F leaves him with significant downside, particularly on road trips. I see some rationale if you're low on saves since he could see some late inning opportunities now, however you likely instead simply should attempt to deal Sparks to Matt Anderson's owner.

Bruce Chen, LH Reliever, BOS: +3.17 ERA
00-02	GS/G	IP	H/HR	K:BB	W-L/S	ERA
Apr	6/18	54.1	49/8	57:24	6-2/0	2.98
May	8/16	48.1	55/14	42:22	1-4/0	6.15

03Apr	0/10	11.1	14/2	8:7	0-0/0	6.35

Ignore Chen's poor April numbers as an Astro since I believe Boston should be an excellent environment for him because the Red Sox generally seem to focus on a player's strengths rather than his weaknessess. Chen's historically poor groundball ratio is his kryptonite, however he's improved nearly every year of his career year and even managed a solid 1.21 G-F in Houston. He can contribute on the Red Sox as long as he limits his flyballs, and therefore his homers, but you at least should wait for now to see how Boston employs him. Chen rarely stays in the same role for more than a month or two, so hopefully his first AL exposure will result in some stability for him.

Hideo Nomo, RH Starter, LA: +3.07 ERA
00-02	GS/G	IP	H/HR	K:BB	W-L/S	ERA
Apr	16/16	99.2	62/13	87:56	6-5/0	2.44
May	17/17	98	96/12	97:60	6-6/0	5.51

03Apr	5/5	33.2	35/4	26:16	2-3/0	4.01

The reemergence of Kevin Brown and continued excellence from Odalis Perez allow Nomo to settle into his usual #3 slot in the rotation rather than the ace mantle he assumed following Brown's 2002 injury. Unfortunately Nomo normally struggles after a torrid April, although I harbor a strong hope that the combination of the top bullpen in the majors and one of the league's top bullpens will limit his downside. Of course his walk problem remains a severe concern, and a 443333 April QA log doesn't suggest his dominance will compensate for lofty walk totals. Feel free to explore a potential deal of Nomo.

Rodrigo Lopez, RH Starter, BAL: +3.03 ERA
00-02	GS/G	IP	H/HR	K:BB	W-L/S	ERA
Apr	3/8	33	25/1	19:14	3-0/0	2.18
May	8/8	38	44/6	28:17	2-2/0	5.21

03Apr	4/4	22.1	29/4	14:8	0-3/0	8.46

Lopez hit the DL last Saturday after straining a left oblique muscle a week ago today, and the Oriole have left little idea as to when he'll return. Of course they probably should keep him out for the month given his normal May struggles. Nothing in his early performance indicates he'll re-emerge as a top starter, however a great 1.9 BB/9 suggests he's capable of pitching effectively. You should wait for his return due to his currently limited value, although also give him a couple starts to prove his health before you deploy him.

Terry Adams, RH Reliever, PHI: +3.00 ERA
00-02	GS/G	IP	H/HR	K:BB	W-L/S	ERA
Apr	4/26	59.1	55/5	36:20	4-5/2	2.73
May	6/26	55	66/6	39:20	2-3/0	5.73

03Apr	0/12	10.1	11/1	9:5	0-0/0	3.48

Adams appears quite comfortable after returning to his traditional bullpen role, and I see no reason why he won't eventually develop into a closer over the next few years. Anyone with a 7.8 K/9 and 2.00 G-F possesses significant potential in a short relief role, and the Phillies' offense also should allow him to vulture several wins. You likely should bench him against any tough opponents this month, however otherwise you should wait on Adams in the expectation that he'll contribute helpful marks in most categories this year, particularly since I don't see a more capable or experienced closing alternative in the Philadelphia pen right now.

Pitchers whose ERAs normally rise between 1.50 and 3.00 points in May include Danny Graves(+2.98 ERA), Brian Lawrence(+2.89), Kelvim Escobar(+2.87), Ted Lilly(+2.80), Esteban Loaiza(+2.80), Matt Herges(+2.65), Glendon Rusch(+2.61), Billy Koch(+2.49), Brett Tomko(+2.39), Armando Benitez(+2.37), Doug Davis(+2.35), Paul Wilson(+2.31), Mike Stanton(+2.17), Sean Lowe(+2.13), Dustin Hermanson(+2.02), Braden Looper(+2.02), Dave Weathers(+2.02), Rick Reed(+2.00), Ismael Valdes(+1.99), Ramon Ortiz(+1.96), Elmer Dessnes(+1.90), Tom Glavine(+1.89), A.J. Burnett(+1.77), Julian Tavarez(+1.68), Scott Schoeneweis(+1.63), Russ Ortiz(+1.61), Jose Mesa(+1.57), and Andy Ashby(+1.50).

Currently injured players who qualified include Todd Ritchie(+2.98 ERA).

Internet Challenge

Pedro Martinez: Fri:@MIN(Joh.Santana)
Curt Schilling: Fri:@PIT(J.D'Amico)
Matt Morris: Fri:@CHC(C.Zambrano)
Roy Oswalt: Fri:@PHI(B.Myers)
Kerry Wood: Sat:STL(W.Williams)
Wade Miller: Sat:@PHI(R.Wolf)
Roy Halladay: Sun:@ANA(Jar.Washburn)
Jason Schmidt: Sun:@ATL(M.Hampton)

No starts: Randy, Millwood, Prior, Beckett, and Ainsworth.

The inability to use Prior, Beckett, or Ainsworth to save cap room might leave us a little short on offense, but the number of road starts doesn't present us with great opportunities. Kerry's the safest play at home, and we're comfortable with Pedro, Schilling, and Morris based on the unimpressive offenses each pitcher will face. Schmidt also should be solid facing his former team. Looking at the recent PQA logs of the other starters, Oswalt(24244) and Miller(33024) barely break even against Myer(13443 and Wolf(53434), however we like the match-up of Halladay(44343) against Washburn(30243); he'll complete our rotation.

Our four Rockies take a seat in Florida, and since Ichiro isn't justifying his salary, he'll sit in favor of Frank Thomas to keep us under the cap.

Given that Lowell normally slumps in May and Ramirez should improve with Giles' return, we're not going to make any changes at 3B right now, especially since Ramirez drove home five runs over his last four games in Houston.

The Umpire Hunter(6th lg; 232nd overall)
Week 6b: May 9-May 11

C	Eli Marrero		580
C	Toby Hall		460
1B	Aubrey Huff		610
1B	Erubiel Durazo		520
2B	Alfonso Soriano		1460
2B	Luis Castillo		1210
3B	Aaron Boone		1010
3B	Aramis Ramirez		820
SS	Alex Rodriguez		2010
SS	Nomar Garciaparra	1330
OF	Vlad Guerrero		2010
OF	Lance Berkman		1640
OF	Manny Ramirez		1610
OF	Hideki Matsui		750
OF	Austin Kearns		650
OF	Dave Roberts		620
DH	Orlando Cabrera		1030
DH	Frank Thomas		920

SP	Pedro Martinez		1700
SP	Curt Schilling		1610
SP	Matt Morris		1300
SP	Kerry Wood		990
SP	Roy Halladay		890
SP	Jason Schmidt		790
RP	Scott Williamson	960
RP	Mike MacDougal		750
RP	Tim Worrell		740
RP	Matt Mantei		700

Total Salary for Week 6b: 	29670

Today's Fantasy Rx: The best way to force an increase in your qualitative stats is to dump your worse starter. As we've never seen a league in which at least a couple decent middle relievers aren't available every week of the season, most owners will see a positive long-term gain if they release any starter with poor skills and weak performance in favor of a skilled middleman.