Today's Fantasy Rx

Today I'm reviewing pitchers who, over the past three years, saw their ERA drop by at least 1.50 from April to May. We only looked at pitchers who compiled at least a total of 30 IP in both months over the past three years.

Todd Jones, RH Reliever, COL: -4.08 ERA
00-02	GS/G	IP	H/HR	K:BB	W-L/S	ERA
Apr	0/35	31	43/4	22:16	0-3/9	5.81
May	0/37	36.1	30/3	30:10	2-1/16	1.73

03Apr	0/12	12.1	21/3	10:2	0-0/0	5.84

Jones' April performance looks eerily similar to his three-year average as he compiled a poor ERA despite displaying both excellent control and good dominance. An abundance of hits and homers ballooned his qualitative marks, and while I recognize the downside of owning a Rockies' reliever, we should see improvement in his stats this month. Owners in deeper leagues could look to acquire Jones if they need short-term roster filler.

Garrett Stephenson, RH Starter, STL: -3.90 ERA
00-02	GS/G	IP	H/HR	K:BB	W-L/S	ERA
Apr	8/8	42	48/4	25:16	3-2/0	6.86
May	9/10	54.2	51/3	43:23	6-2/0	2.96

03Apr	5/5	29	28/4	16:15	1-2/0	4.97

Although Stephenson's skills seem somewhat similar to his marks from previous seasons, his elevated walk rate is far more worrisome than his usually weak hit rate. A 34002 QA log demonstrates his limited upside quite clearly, and even though I believe the Cardinals' offense can propel him into double-digit wins, Stephenson will struggle to maintain PDV thanks to his qualitative difficulties. You might want to wait a week or two to see if his ERA will drop, but Stephenson definitely is someone I'd target to trade off my team in the near future.

Shawn Chacon, RH Reliever, COL: -3.50 ERA
00-02	GS/G	IP	H/HR	K:BB	W-L/S	ERA
Apr	6/6	32.2	37/8	28:19	2-3/0	7.16
May	7/7	39.1	38/3	27:15	4-2/0	3.66

03Apr	5/5	34.2	20/1	25:9	4-0/0	1.04

I can't quite believe that Chacon normally improves in May given his incredible performance this year, however a limited sample size skews our analysis as his lofty homer rate from past Aprils seems primarily responsible for his qualitative struggles. The combination of fantastic defensive support, a nicely improved walk rate, and a dramatically lower homer rate allow Chacon to rank with the best pitchers in the game, and a 52355 QA log suggests he possesses the skill upside to help fantasy teams indefinitely. Look to acquire Chacon, however remain willing to reserve him as necessary if his skills slip to a notable extent.

Jim Mecir, RH Reliever, OAK: -3.08 ERA
00-02	GS/G	IP	H/HR	K:BB	W-L/S	ERA
Apr	0/30	35.1	37/3	24:18	3-5/0	4.84
May	0/28	41	23/3	35:11	5-1/1	1.76

03Apr	0/1	1	2/0	0:1	0-0/0	18.00

With only two appearances with Oakland since returning from surgery, Mecir lacks any recent track record of substance. Feel free to acquire Mecir only if you can reserve or drop him if he struggles to an unexpected extent.

Eddie Guardado, LH Starter, MIN: -2.91 ERA
00-02	GS/G	IP	H/HR	K:BB	W-L/S	ERA
Apr	0/31	30.1	28/5	32:14	2-1/11	5.64
May	0/37	36.1	26/4	34:13	6-1/7	2.73

03Apr	0/9	8.2	5/1	8:0	0-1/6	1.04

We obviously won't see Steady Eddie match his surprisingly severe May improvement, however he owns most of the skills necessary to maintain excellent qualitative marks. Unfortunately a consistent flyball tendency indicates that he'll continue a fair number of homers in addition to other earned runs each month, so we can expect his ERA to rise above 3.00 in the near future. He remains a solid target to acquire if you need a quality closer, but his value appears near its likely 2003 zenith.

Roy Halladay, RH Starter, TOR: -2.87 ERA
00-02	GS/G	IP	H/HR	K:BB	W-L/S	ERA
Apr	11/11	64	77/8	46:24	3-4/0	7.17
May	7/8	46	57/1	38:17	4-2/0	4.30

03Apr	6/6	44.2	40/6	35:3	6-0/0	3.22

Halladay looks like exactly the type of player I hope to identify in these articles. He wasn't won a single game and boasts a painful ERA, yet he owns great command and should see all his qualitative marks fall if Toronto's defense fixes their early yips. With his current ratios and a 35443 QA log, I won't be surprised if Halladay's May ERA approaches 1.00 since only decent luck seems missing from his skill set. Try to acquire Halladay now since his value won't descend to this level again any time soon.

Cal Eldred, RH Reliever, STL: -2.84 ERA
00-02	GS/G	IP	H/HR	K:BB	W-L/S	ERA
Apr	7/7	35.1	34/3	30:18	2-1/0	6.37
May	6/6	35.2	34/5	33:15	3-2/0	3.53

03Apr	0/8	10.2	11/2	10:3	1-0/0	3.38

I never expected Eldred to return to the majors after his 2001 retirement, but he now owns decent skills and intriguing upside. We've seen Dave Duncan work wonders in converting aging and failing starters into productive relievers, and as long as Eldred remains healthy, expect him to join the ranks of Duncan's success stories. He even might see more than the lone save opportunity he registered last month, so look to acquire Eldred as his command indicates he won't hurt you even if he remains in middle relief.

Jeff Fassero, LH Reliever, STL: -2.72 ERA
00-02	GS/G	IP	H/HR	K:BB	W-L/S	ERA
Apr	4/31	45.1	56/6	31:19	2-5/9	5.56
May	6/31	57	50/3	43:10	5-1/1	2.84

03Apr	0/15	9.2	12/2	7:4	0-1/0	8.38

Fassero's ERA either will fall this month or he'll find himself looking for work, however the former outcome appears far more likely given his decent command and the fact he pitched quite effectively in nearly three-quarters of his outings. Although I don't see much worthwhile upside here, if you kept Fassero on your roster for the past month, wait a couple more weeks since he at least should partially rebound, thereby bringing his qualitative marks for the year down to acceptable levels.

Brian Anderson, LH Starter, CLE: -2.70 ERA
00-02	GS/G	IP	H/HR	K:BB	W-L/S	ERA
Apr	9/15	59.1	82/14	31:11	1-4/0	6.67
May	15/17	99.2	110/14	45:26	5-3/0	3.97

03Apr	5/5	31.2	40/7	10:6	2-3/0	4.55

Although Anderson's 2.0 HR/9 appears more a product of bad luck than any severe skill deficiency, he also lacks any history of promising G-F ratios. Only his great walk rate gives him value to fantasy teams, and his likely limited win total and lack of strikeouts leave him fairly useless in many leagues. Wait another month if you own him since we can expect a welcome drop in his qualitative marks, but remain ready to cut him if he continues posting QA scores like his current 5-start log of 42122.

Jarrod Washburn, LH Starter, ANA: -2.60 ERA
00-02	GS/G	IP	H/HR	K:BB	W-L/S	ERA
Apr	7/7	39.2	54/4	16:17	2-4/0	5.67
May	16/16	105.2	81/11	78:37	7-2/0	3.07

03Apr	6/6	42	37/5	12:12	2-3/0	4.29

Washburn's off to a great start this month with a complete game, and even though his 30243 current QA log doesn't indicate much upside, his numbers over the last couple years suggest he generally improves to a notable extent in May regardless of his early-season performance. Anaheim still owns a great bullpen and solid defense, so as long as Washburn can limit opposing baserunners, we won't grow worried about any ERA problems or reduced win totals. He's a good target to acquire if you need starting pitching.

Pitchers whose ERAs normally drop between 1.50 and 2.55 points in May include Kip Wells(-2.54 ERA), Rick Helling(-2.49), Joe Mays(-2.47), Aaron Fultz(-2.46), Mark Buehrle(-2.44), Jose Jimenez(-2.39), Mike Hampton(-2.36), Shigetoshi Hasegawa(-2.35), Ramiro Mendoza(-2.35), Mark Redman(-2.27), Woody Williams(-2.26), Ben Sheets(-2.20), Jason Grimsley(-1.97), Miguel Batista(-1.94), Brian Meadows(-1.82), Jim Brower(-1.79), Jeff Tam(-1.79), Jeff Weaver(-1.77), Felix Rodriguez(-1.75), John Halama(-1.63), Randy Wolf(-1.60), Byung-Hyun Kim(-1.58),

Currently injured players who qualified include Jim Parque(-3.00) and Robert Person(-1.55).

Today's Fantasy Rx: If your league has a limit on games started by pitchers, make sure you own the appropriate number of starters so that you don't waste any starts. A staff with six starters will nicely reach the ESPN max. start limit, so feel free to deal any excess starters beyond your top 6 for offensive upgrade and skilled relievers.