Today's Fantasy Rx

To make this a little easier for those of you following along in the Sports Weekly 2003 Fantasy Guide, I'll review the teams in the order that Sports Weekly lists them.

Please refer to the LABR American League rosters here.

Owner: Mat Olkin
Site: Sports Weekly
$ Left: $0.
Split: $173H/$87P = 67/33.
Reserve roster: Tony Graffanino, Pete Walker, John Stephens, Jhonny Peralta, Bobby Crosby, and Ed Yarnall.

Nice pick: Hideki Matsui, $22; Olkin also drafted Carlos Lee for the same amount, but Matsui should earn a few bucks more.
Top sleeper: John Stephens, R; he could approach double-digit value if the Orioles ever allow him into the rotation.
Potential bust: Chris Woodward, $11; I'm not convinced he's a viable pick much before Dollar Days.
Wasted picks (that won't contribute in the majors): Jhonny Peralta and Bobby Crosby, respectively barring completely unlikely trades of Omar Vizquel and Miguel Tejada.
Early bad luck: Mark Quinn, $7, wound up in the Padres' minors after Kansas City cut him; George Lombard, $5, didn't win a job in Detroit; Marshall MacDougal, $1, didn't make Texas as a Rule 5 pick; Jamey Wright, $1, failed to win the Mariners #5 job and re-signed with the Brewers.
Category to trade: WHIP.

While Olkin grabbed Matsui and Lee at reasonable prices while also rostering the ever-intriguing Jeremy Giambi at $13, I'll be surprised if more than a couple other players even earn their draft-day salaries. He simply didn't spend enough on quality offensive starters, instead overpaying for Woodward, a $14 Frank Catalanotto who can't avoid injury, and a $27 Carlos Delgado with little hope of exceeding $25. No one other than his $11 D'Angelo Jimenez seems likely to reach 10 steals, and he lacks both a solid foundation in batting average and power categories.

Selecting nine pitchers without grabbing one solid bargain is a relatively rare occurrence in LABR, but even picks like Arthur Rhodes, $10, and Cliff Politte, $8, won't outearn these prices without unexpected early season trades of their respective team's closers. Spending $20 to secure Eric Milton and Johan Santana wasn't wise if both were completely healthy, and even Tim Wakefield, who we value very highly, isn't a good buy at $17.

Summary: Wasting two reserve picks didn't help his depth, but he wasn't heading for a first division finish under any circumstances given his many injury concerns and lack of sleepers. Unfortunately, Olkin will be lucky to avoid the cellar.

Owner: Mark Frederickson
Site: N/A
$ Left: $0.
Split: $170H/$90P = 65/35.
Reserve roster: David Segui, Damian Rolls, Chris Truby, Ken Huckaby, Brian Bowles, and Mike Maroth.

Nice pick: Raul Mondesi, $17; while he doesn't own a great BA, his quantitative contribution usually allows him to push $30.
Top sleeper: David Segui, R; a healthy Segui, however unlikely, should earn double-digit value.
Potential bust: Chris Hammond, $11; the Yankees won't turn to a lefty often even with Rivera out, so while Hammond pushed $20 last season, he won't hit double digits this year.
Wasted picks (that won't contribute in the majors): Brian Bowles.
Early bad luck: Tom Wilson($2) opened the year third on the Jays' depth chart at catcher, Jason Tyner($2) didn't break camp in the majors, and Aaron Harang($2) also lost his job this spring.
Category to trade: Steals and RBI, the latter due to selecting a half-dozen infielders between $13 and $18.

Although he admittedly shorted his hitting, Frederickson nearly nailed starters everywhere on offense while drafting a couple of intriguing reserves. He owns plenty of speed to deal, and even cheap grabs like Geronimo Gil($2) and Ruben Sierra($2) could contribute double-digit homers. I harbor severe concerns regarding his BA as only David Eckstein($17) and Ellis Burks($16) seem likely to exceed .300.

The problem is that Frederickson's pitching appears both shallow and short of profit. Paying $21 for Jarrod Washburn and $13 for David Wells as staff anchors seems like an unwise expenditure, and John Thomson($2), Omar Daal($5), and Maroth aren't particularly strong complementary players. I also don't see enough saves' upside behind Kaz Sazaki($26), Jeff Nelson($5), and Hammond; dealing speed for saves seems an easy way to remedy that deficiency.

Summary: Targeting $2 players early and avoiding anyone over $26 allowed Frederickson to assemble impressive offensive depth, but he'll need a couple of good trades for pitching to avoid the second division.

Owner: Rod Miller
Site: N/A
$ Left: $6.
Split: $153H/$101P = 60/40.
Reserve roster: Kenny Lofton, Chuck Finley, Luis Ugueto, John Halama, Willie Banks, and Oscar Henriquez.

Nice pick: Kenny Lofton, R; snagging the then-unsigned Lofton in the first reserve round gives Miller an impressive amount of speed.
Top sleeper: LaTroy Hawkins, $2; any early-season slump by Minnesota could result in a Guardado trade and Hawkins' promotion to closer.
Potential bust: Rod Lopez, $14, is a risky pick and possesses less upside than Karim Garcia($23).
Wasted picks (that won't contribute in the majors): Oscar Henriquez, Willie Banks, and possibly Chuck Finley.
Early bad luck: With Carlos Beltran($34), Mariano Rivera($30), and Herb Perry($3) out at least for a couple weeks, this team won't get off to a strong start.
Category to trade: Stolen bases.

Miller expects to win the league despite spending a buck each on Wil Nieves, A.J.Hinch, Ricky Gutierrez, Deivi Cruz, and Shane Halter. An outfield of Beltran, Garcia, Shannon Stewart($26), Vernon Wells($24), and Lofton doesn't compensate for drafting zeros at five positions and the relatively power-deficient Dmitri Young($13), Jeff Cirillo($9), and Nick Johnson($7) at the corners. He should finish solidly in average and steals but lacks the at-bats to earn many power points.

Rivera and Roy Halladay($24) provide superb base pitching even if Rivera misses a month, however even excellent seasons from Brendan Donnelly($2) and LaTroy Hawkins($2) likely won't compensate for qualitative uncertainties like Lopez, Cory Lidle($16), and Kevin Appier($9). I don't see him earning too many points in any pitching category, and even a Chuck Finley comeback won' alleviate all Miller's problems.

Summary: A lack of at-bats in the infield and weak pitching depth might cause Miller to slip into the second division.

Owner: Bob Demaree
Site: N/A
$ Left: $9.
Split: $156H/$95P = 62/48.
Reserve roster: Greg Colbrunn, Chris Snelling, Damian Jackson, Alex Escobar, Josh Hamilton, and DeWayne Wise.

Nice pick: Rocco Baldelli, $6; we believe he'll struggle to hold a decent average but still finish with a value in the teens due to his quantitative contribution.
Top sleeper: Milton Bradley, $3; paying this little for a five-tool outfielder should enable Demaree to reap welcome rewards even if Bradley's average remains low.
Potential bust: Rick Reed, $13; deteriorating skills could cause major qualitative problems unless the Twins provide Reed with outstanding defense.
Wasted picks (that won't contribute in the majors): Chris Snelling, Alex Escobar, Josh Hamilton, and DeWayne Wise.
Early bad luck: Mark Teixeira($12) made the team but isn't guaranteed regular playing time.
Category to trade: Young five-tool outfielders with significant media exposure that will raise trade values.

All his cheap position players are good values, and while spending $25 on Erstad is risky, I like his overall offense, particularly if he can move speed for power early in the year. Colbrunn and Jackson even give him some flexibility at UT.

I don't see much upside in his pitching staff. Jamie Moyer($17) and Andy Pettitte($12) are good values yet not obvious bargains, and while KRod($8), J.C. Romero($5), and Buddy Groom($4) could provide some qualitative help, drafting Aaron Sele($1) without selecting any reserve pitchers was a mistake. Troy Percival also isn't worth $30 given his health problems and the Angels' bullpen depth, although Kyle Lohse($5) at least looks like a quality sleeper.

Summary: If he can convert his excess speed/toolsy outfielders into another closer and more power, Demaree should finish in the first division.

Owner: Bryan Clark
Site: N/A
$ Left: $0.
Split: $167H/$93P = 64/36.
Reserve roster: Lee Stevens, Willis Roberts, Scot Shields, Esteban Yan, John Mabry, and Rey Ordonez.

Nice pick: Alex Rodriguez, $41; locking in the best player in baseball at this price gives him an excellent foundation to surround with players with more obvious upside.
Top sleeper: Lance Carter, $5; one of the top bargains in the draft, Carter should remain the Rays' closer given his skills while potentially earning $20 or more.
Potential bust: Pedro Martinez, $37; unless he contributes 200 innings with league-leading qualitative totals, Martinez likely won't approach his price.
Wasted picks (that won't contribute in the majors): Lee Stevens.
Early bad luck: Dee Brown($1) doesn't seem likely to see much playing time. The poor start to the season for Chan Ho Park($5) is worrisome given his 2002 problems.
Category to trade: ARod, Garret Anderson, Edgar, and Pierzynski give him an excellent BA foundation. Drafting Carter, Eddie Guardado, and a couple middle relievers could let him move saves.

Overpaying for Pedro and Guardado($30) strained his pitching budget, but Carter, Park, Gil Meche($5), and even Shigetoshi Hasegawa($1) at least offer good upside for a minimum price, albeit along with significant risk in most cases. While he appears very short on wins, he planned to ignore that category.

Offensively, he looks rather solid, even if he only acquired Anderson($26), Marty Cordova($4), and Dollar Days selections Dustan Mohr, Dee Brown, and Ron Gant to man his outfield. A cadre of solid infielders should let him trade someone like Troy Glaus($23) for a couple of third outfielders with good quantitative numbers.

Summary: I view many of Clark's players as good bargains, but a lack of inexpensive players with probably fantasy upside will leave him short of the first division.

Owner: Clay Davenport
Site: Baseball Prospectus
$ Left: $0.
Split: $170H/$90P = 65/35.
Reserve roster: Brian Roberts, Aquilino Lopez, Darrell May, Brandon Inge, Eric Byrnes, and Frank Castillo.

Nice pick: David Ortiz, $5; he'll double this price with any regular playing time.
Top sleeper: Brian Roberts, R; any middle infield opening could net Davenport two dozen steals.
Potential bust: Miguel Olivo, $7; better catchers went for a $1, so overpaying for a youngster who skipped AAA is very risky.
Wasted picks (that won't contribute in the majors): Frank Castillo.
Early bad luck: Kevin Cash($1) didn't break camp in the majors. Neither did Joe Borchard($6), Buddy Hernandez($2), or Jon Rauch($5), although the reserve roster will compensate for these openings.
Category to trade: I see several speedsters, however as he lacks starting pitching depth, punting wins also isn't a bad idea.

While Davenport followed the BP PECOTA projections quite closely, he gambled on several youngsters in questionable situations. I see tremendous upside for his offense, but his BA could end up low and a lack of playing time might give him unexpected quantitative problems.

The pitching staff is equally troublesome. Anchoring a staff with Jeff Weaver($21), Roger Clemens($14), and Casey Fossum($12) is a decent move, although I don't know why he focused so heavily on strikeouts in a 4x4 league. Aside from Chad Bradford($4), his middle relievers lack consistent track records, and paying $25 for Ugueth Urbina in Texas seems a big high.

Summary: The collective upside of Davenport's players make him a good bet for the first division, however an in-the-money finish would surprise me.

Looking over the league as a whole, Wolf & Colton appear positioned to lead much of the year, but both Hunt and Sandlot Shrink's Krahn and Radomski could push them for first place. Lipsey, Davenport, and Miller should join the other trio in the first division, and Demaree, Frederickson, Clark, and even Ravitz also fielded decently competitive teams. Olkin, along with Mason, thanks to the Jeter disaster, look likely to bring up the rear in this league.

Today's Fantasy Rx: Unsurprisingly, spending at the beginning of the draft remains an excellent gambit according to the last few days of our LABR analysis. While most leagues seemingly begin overspending by the latter half of the first round of nominations, we repeatedly see bargains among the top few picks as owners still are settling into draft mode. Take advantage of any early lulls to attempt to grab star players at their draft values instead of overpaying for similar talent once everyone begins intense bidding.