Today's Fantasy Rx

To make this a little easier for those of you following along in the Sports Weekly 2003 Fantasy Guide, I'll review the teams in the order that Sports Weekly lists them.

Please refer to the LABR American League rosters here.

Owner: John Hunt
Site: Sports Weekly
$ Left: $7.
Split: $190H/$63P = 75/25.
Reserve roster: Mike Restovich, Mitch Meluskey, Bill Selby, Ryan Anderson, Antonio Perez, and Bobby Madritsch.

Nice pick: Matt Anderson, $9; I wouldn't be surprised if he doubles this price.
Top sleeper: Ben Broussard, $1; his batting skills aren't far behind those of Travis Hafner, and only questionable health and a lack of at-bats prevent Broussard from coasting to double-digit value.
Potential bust: Victor Martinez, $7; I doubt Martinez will see much time in the majors prior to September barring an unexpected trade.
Wasted picks (that won't contribute in the majors): Mitch Meluskey, Ryan Anderson, and Antonio Perez; Hunt always grabs a couple of decent prospects, selections that make little sense in a single-season league.
Early bad luck: His $9 Chris Singleton barely missed opening the year on the DL, and we've seen little mention of his $5 Bobby Howry in discussions of Boston's bullpen. Bob Wells, $1, didn't make Tampa out of Spring Training
Category to trade: Though I don't see significant excess talent anywhere, he probably could deal one of his nine position players between $9 and $22 without a significant category loss.

Although Hunt hoped to wait for bargains after grabbing a pitching anchor, he instead drafted a team heavily balanced towards reasonable acquisitions on offense. I don't see a single position player outside of maybe Martinez or a $22 Juan Gonzalez that I find overpriced by more than $3, and he could approach 40 points on offense with a little luck.

He also wound up with a fairly decent pitching staff led by respectable acquisitions like Anderson, a $16 Brad Radke, a $12 Ted Lilly, a $9 Ryan Franklin, and a $5 Chad Fox. While this leaves him slightly short on saves, he should compile a nice WHIP as long as his $1 Jeremy Affeldt performs decently even though filling his bench with AAA fodder leaves him short on depth.

Summary: Leaving $7 on the table might hurt him, but he also tied for the league lead by spending 73% on offense, and that investment should net him an in-the-money finish.

Owner: John Mason
Site: N/A
$ Left: $3.
Split: $155H/$102P = 60/40.
Reserve roster: Kenny Rogers, Billy Traber, Jermaine Clark, Rick White, Brian Tallet, and Scott Schoeneweis.

Nice pick: Tim Salmon, $14; he could double this price if he remains sufficiently healthy to build on his improving batting skill.
Top sleeper: Tom Gordon, $3; he owns the skills necessary to close and only needs a Koch injury to reach double-digit value.
Potential bust: Erubiel Durazo, $19; I don't expect him to maintain a decent BA, which should keep him from reaching a value of even half this price.
Wasted picks (that won't contribute in the majors): None.
Early bad luck: Spending $34 on Derek Jeter looked decent a week ago but now will doom Mason's team after Jeter's injury on Opening Day will keep him out indefinitely.
Category to trade: Steals and saves.

Spending $102 on nine pitchers left Mason without much offensive flexibility, and losing Jeter will limit his quantitative upside and allow guys like Durazo, Mike Cameron, and Ramon Santiago to drag his average down. I also don't see enough starting position players here to allow Mason to manage a decent finish in the power categories.

Of course, Mason drafted a solid all-around pitching staff even if Derek Lowe($25), Joel Pineiro($17), C.C. Sabathia($12), and Ismael Valdes($4) don't qualify as bargains. Grabbing Rogers and Traber on reserve gives him a nice wins boost over the questionable Wohler, although he also overpaid by spending $41 to acquire four relievers(Julio, Embree, Timlin, and Gordon) likely to combine for about 45 saves.

Summary: Losing Jeter would hurt any team, but Mason found few bargains on offense. Even his respectable pitching won't allow him to finish in the first division.

Owner: Lewis Lipsey
Site: N/A
$ Left: $14.
Split: $184H/$62P = 75/25.
Reserve roster: Chuck Knoblauch, Coco Crisp, Lew Ford, Rickey Henderson, Joe Valentine, and Hiram Bocachica.

Nice pick: Ichiro Suzuki, $39; grabbing Ichiro for $10 under our projections gives Lipsey an excellent offensive anchor.
Top sleeper: Dean Palmer, $1; a healthy Palmer provides an excellent cheap power source.
Potential bust: Miguel Tejada, $31; anyone drafting the overrated Tejada hopefully understands the risk involved with rostering someone after a career year.
Wasted picks (that won't contribute in the majors): Travis Phelps($1), Chuck Knoblauch, Lew Ford, and Joe Valentine; only Ford might see the majors this year before September, and he won't find much playing time given the Twins' outfield depth.
Early bad luck: Greg Vaughn($2) lost his roster spot completely, Knoblauch and Henderson haven't signed anywhere, and a $13 Franklyn German won't earn much if Detroit struggles and Anderson continues closing.
Category to trade: Offensive position players other than Ichiro might net needed starting pitching upgrades.

Lipsey spent $9 on offense more than he planned, however leaving $14 on the table kept him from acquiring any decent pitching depth. As he didn't draft even one pitcher in the reserve rounds, even a solid finish in wins and some luck involving German and a $4 Francisco Cordero won't prevent him from finishing with less than 20 pitching points.

Fortunately, Lipsey's offense is fairly loaded with starting players, and his impressive infield offsets his unimpressive outfield depth. He enters the season with only a couple of part-time players, so he should remain near the top in the qualitative categories on offense. An early decision to ignore ERA/WHIP in favor of wins, saves, and a loaded offense could result in an unlikely contender.

Summary: Lipsey's offense will carry him into the first division, although only the emergence of a second closer will push him into the money.

Owner: Rick Wolf & Glenn Colton
Site: All-Star Stats
$ Left: $0.
Split: $189H/$71P = 73/27.
Reserve roster: Adam Piatt, Jose Paniagua, Jeremy Hill, Runelvys Hernandez, Joaquin Benoit, and Brian Rose.

Nice pick: Nomar Garciaparra, $31; the upside of Boston's offense makes him a slightly safer pick at this price than a $32 Jason Giambi, $27 Eric Chavez, or a $25 Mike Mussina.
Top sleeper: Matt LeCroy, $2; grabbing a possible catcher-eligible power hitter looks even better than the potential of a $1 Mark Hendrickson.
Potential bust: Billy Koch, $30; even a healthy Koch barely will reach $20, although grabbing an $8 Damaso Marte is welcome insurance.
Wasted picks (that won't contribute in the majors): Jose Panigua and Brian Rose.
Early bad luck: Brent Abernathy($6) lost his starting job and roster spot in Tampa before finding himself behind Carlos Febles and Desi Relaford in the Royals' minors. A $7 Gene Kingsale likely won't find enough playing time to match this price.
Category to trade: Any team with Giambi, Chavez, Nomar, Posada, and Torii Hunter can explore dealing power.

Aside from the four infield studs and Hunter, they also grabbed Jay Gibbons, Rondell White, Eric Owens, and Matt LeCroy, players that should allow them to coast to first place in average, homers and RBI. Solid SB production from Febles, Nomar, Hunter, and Owens could allow All-Star Stats to approach 45 points on offense.

While they drafted a lot of unproven pitchers like Ricardo Rodriguez($2), Colby Lewis($1), Mickey Callaway($1), Mark Hendrickson($1), and Runelvys Hernandez, most of these guys qualify as excellent sleepers. As they spent very little on pitching aside from a $25 Mussina and the Chicago closing tandem of Koch/Marte, all the young starters qualify as nearly free flyers that can be rotated to maximize match-ups. Even without sleeper veterans, I see enough upside here for Wolf and Colton to register at least a half-dozen points in all the pitching categories.

Summary: I'll be shocked if this team doesn't finish in the money, and a couple of smart FAAB moves should keep them in contention for first place all season.

Owner: Bob Krahn & Bob Radomski
Site: Sandlot Shrink
$ Left: $5.
Split: $135H/$120P = 53/47.
Reserve roster: Chris Richard, Brian Anderson, Travis Chapman, Denny Hocking, Armando Rios, and Jason Conti.

Nice pick: Manny Ramirez, $35; he could challenge for the Triple Crown with a little luck.
Top sleeper: Andres Torres, $1; he could steal a few dozen bases in a regular starting role.
Potential bust: Aaron Rowand, $5; most of the high-priced players here are solid, however I don't envision Rowand ever holding a consistent lineup slot.
Wasted picks (that won't contribute in the majors): Chris Richard and Travis Chapman.
Early bad luck: The injury concerns surrounding a $6 Danny Wright will keep him at the end of the Chicago rotation, Detroit returned Chapman to Philadelphia, and neither Torres nor a $1 Juan Rivera opened the year in the majors.
Category to trade: A pitching staff filled with skilled hurlers allows them to shop either stud starter, a $25 Mark Mulder or a $23 Tim Hudson.

Krahn and Radomski planned to spend 70% on pitching yet fell $47 short of that goal. Fortunately they drafted an impressive staff anchored by Oakland's three best fantasy pitchers: Mulder, Hudson, and a $30 Keith Foulke. Danny Wright, a $10 John Lackey, $4 Sidney Ponson, and a $2 John Burkett should give push them to a high finish in wins while Foulke and a $19 Danys Baez should register more than 75 saves. As even a $1 Travis Harper owns respectable all-around skills, they should reap impressive rewards considering their expanded allocation for pitching.

Somewhat surprisingly, their offense doesn't completely suffer even without a couple more $20+ outfielders. Damian Easley($3) landed on his feet in Tampa, giving them seven decent infield starters and either John McDonald($1) or Hocking at MIF. While an outfield of Manny, Ben Grieve($11), Rowand, Rivera, and Torres looks weak now, all these players own solid upside, and a $1 Eric Munson at UT provides needed power. I don't see them finishing first in any offensive category, however dealing an ace for a stud middle infielder will fix most of the quantitative problems here.

Summary: A superb pitching staff and an offense with potential should allow Krahn and Radomski to compete for a money spot.

Owner: Nate Ravitz
Site: RotoTimes
$ Left: $5.
Split: $166H/$89P = 65/35.
Reserve roster: Rich Harden, Shawn Wooten, Justin Morneau, Rontrez Johnson, Dave Berg, and Ryan Rupe.

Nice pick: Mike MacDougal, $5; I can't believe MacDougal went under $10 as he could triple this price even if suffers from control problems as we expect.
Top sleeper: Desi Relaford, $6; he should double this price even if he doesn't earn a starting job by mid-season.
Potential bust: Barry Zito, $29, is the riskiest pick on this team after his overrated 2002, however neither a $18 Freddy Garcia nor a $19 Mark Buehrle qualifies as a particularly wise pick.
Wasted picks (that won't contribute in the majors): Justin Morneau and Rontrez Johnson.
Early bad luck: Jesus Colome, $3, is nowhere near a certainty to close for Tampa Bay. Steve Karsay($7) is out indefinitely.
Category to trade: Overrated starting pitchers who won't retain significant value into summer. Converting some power into speed would give this team more balancee

Ravitz drafted an excellent quantitative foundation on offense but failed to grab much speed aside from Willie Harris($6) or Esteban German($3), and neither play should see many at-bats this year. Spending $21 on a BA drain like Joe Credee also looks like an unnecessary risk.

Unfortunately, Ravitz's offense is the only real positive on this team as he overpaid the only three starting pitchers he drafted while overpaying for setup guys like Kerry Ligtenberg($3), Ben Weber($4), and Karsay. Drafting MacDougal and Karsay for only $8 total opened up significant salary to boost other categories, however I just don't see many good sleepers here.

Summary: Only a completely unexpected early emergence from Rich Harden will give Ravitz enough dealing depth to secure a first division finish.

I'll continue tomorrow with the other six teams and my picks for the top finishers.

Today's Fantasy Rx: Tampa's uncertain closer situation is driving us away from Jesus Colome in challenge leagues, however he's likely still their best long-term option. If he's available at $5 or less in keeper leagues, now's a great time to grab him.